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Who Wins The Election? 1 Week Out (1 Viewer)

How many times out of 100, does Biden wins the election?

  • 95-100 times

    Votes: 14 8.8%

  • 90-94 times

    Votes: 17 10.7%

  • 85-89 times

    Votes: 22 13.8%

  • 80-84 times

    Votes: 21 13.2%

  • 70-79 times

    Votes: 19 11.9%

  • 60-69 times

    Votes: 15 9.4%

  • 50-59 times

    Votes: 20 12.6%

  • 40-49 times

    Votes: 9 5.7%

  • 30-39 times

    Votes: 5 3.1%

  • 20-29 times

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • 10-19 times

    Votes: 2 1.3%

  • 0-9 times

    Votes: 13 8.2%
  • Total voters
    159
Joe Bryant said:
Thanks. I do have more faith in the other Republicans. And of course there are a ton, likely a majority of Democrats in the House and Senate. Plus the people. 
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.....Why?

 
[scooter] said:
I voted 50-59. I think it's pretty close to a tossup at this point, but it's not because of Hunter Biden or Joe's comments on oil or due to any other verbal gaffe by Biden.

I think it's a tossup for 4 reasons:

1. undecided voters and wavering Republicans tend to "come home" to the incumbent.

2. the installation of Amy Coney Barrett will energize the base and reinforce the most important campaign promise that Trump managed to keep.

3. ground game. The rallies are bad for the country, but they are good for Trump's chances.

4. vote by mail. I don't think the polls are properly accounting for the higher number of Democrat voters whose votes will be rejected.

Anyway, I think Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, and gets 1-2 out of PA/MI/WI/MN, and has a 50/50 shot at Arizona.
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I don't fully buy into some of this . . .

1) There aren't many "undecideds" this time around. In 2016, 94.95% of the vote went to the two main parties (meaning 5.05% went to other candidates). As of now, the polls show 98.7% of people are siding with either Biden or Trump (so no third candidate really getting any traction). Wavering Republicans were not going to be counted for Biden anyway, so them going back to Trump was a vote they gave to him last time (so not a gain for Trump).

2) Energizing the base is not the same as expanding the base. I see this all the time where I live. The Trump fan base is extra nuts with signs, caravans, and going to rallies. But they didn't get greater in number . . . they just got louder. I know plenty of people that voted Trump last time that are voting Biden, and I have not come across anyone that voted Hillary that is voting Trump this time.

3) IMO, Trump can have rallies all day long and they appeal to his base and no one else. He hasn't changed his schtick and that won't convert any Biden supporters. Maybe that could appeal to folks that are first time voters (or the few undecideds), but I don't think there are a lot of votes for Trump to pick up at this point. Biden is polling over 50% in a lot of states (which Hillary didn't do), so unless people change their opinions in less than a week, Trump could have all the other undecided voters in those states and it won't matter.

4) We have no idea what votes will be rejected. As discussed in other threads, there are two things going on that aren't getting enough consideration. In 2016, the polls did a disservice to Hillary, as plenty of people in key states felt she was going to win in a cake walk and didn't go vote. Obviously, a few ten thousand votes swung the election. This time, plenty of Dems that skipped out last time will be voting. On top of that, as discussed in other threads, when there is a huge surge in voters, that favors the challenger and hurts the incumbent.

Bottom line, I expect that there will be more GOP defectors to Biden than vice versa, and I also think that Biden will get a lot more of the new votes that weren't cast last time. Yes, there are three categories of new voters, and two of them won't help any (extra votes in states he was going to win big anyway and extra votes in states he was going to lose big anyway). The only extra votes that matter will be in swing states, and IMO Biden will have a +5 to +10 advantage in the swarm of new voters (meaning Biden will get 55%-60% of those new votes).

I am not sure there is a way to really account for the extra 10-15% of votes being cast this year, as I think they are deserving of their own category. It will be interesting to see if those fall the way I think they will. Maybe I am way wrong on that one, but IMO there will be more calling for new folks to vote against Trump than there will be for people to run to the polls to vote for him.

 
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Lehigh98 said:
You have alot more faith in republicans doing the right thing than I do.  Not sure why you think that way when all they've done is protect the way their minority can hold power.  You don't think they're capable of election shenanigans?  His entire life Trump sues if he doesn't get his way.  His staff has already been filing lawsuits across the country suppressing voter turnout in unfavorable areas.  Hell, he's got White House council defending him in a rape case. 

And who has stood up against him?  Democrats can try but what does it matter if they don't hold a majority to oppose, Trump just accuses them of meddling to justify his means.  Republicans stay quiet and let him do it so they can try and hold onto power.  I think you're looking at something similar to 2000 but on a larger scale where Trump sues over results in several locations until he gets his way or appeals all the way up to his Supreme Court.

I think the only way Trump gets knocked out of office is a huge margin of victory for Biden or if this strategy to bring into question the election results is more for him to save face in a loss he actually (consciously/subconsciously) desires so he doesn't have to do the job for another four years.
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What's the right thing?  In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution.  The Senate provides advice and consent.  They aren't required to confirm a nominee.  Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.    

 
[scooter] said:
If Trump gets FL, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting GA and maybe even NC -- which closes one of Biden's paths.

If Trump gets PA, then it's a sign that he's probably also getting at least one out of MI/WI/MN -- which also closes a path for Biden.

If Trump gets both, then Biden can still win, but he'll have to hold the blue wall in MI/WI/MN or he'll have to pick off GA or NC (in addition to holding AZ).

edit: 538's scenario generator gives the following chances:

Trump wins PA, Biden wins FL: 89% Biden
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL: 91% Biden
Trump wins both: 89% Trump
Biden wins both: 99% Biden
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Yeah - I don't think losing PA necessarily means Biden loses MI.  I think MN and WI are almost done deals at this point. 

And on the 89% Trump - I see if you just move PA to red then it moves WI and AZ red - WI I guess I could see but not sure the rationale in saying Arizona would go red too.

More, my point is that it's not game over - even an 11% chance is not game over.  Right now that's basically where Trump sits and nobody is saying it's over (or almost nobody).

 
tuffnutt said:
I was 70% last week... I am moving down to 60% this week. Like @Jayrod I live in Trump Country. The kind of people that drive around with Trump flags flying in Pickup truck beds. I have already put in for a personal day next Wednesday. Tuesday is going to be a LOOOOOONNNGGG night   
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I've seen some of that too and not my style but whatever.   Reminds me of when the perennially bad local sports club, like the Isotopes, are having a good year and all of a sudden someone who wasn't paying attention is superfan. 

 
Prinefan said:
Big win for Biden.  Won't be close (thank God).  Nobody's mentioning this but...

In 2016 I believe most (if not all) of Trumpers voted.  They still didn't win the popular vote.  We're shattering records with voter turnout and I don't believe the uptick is Trumpers coming out of the woodwork.  I believe it's Democrats who have seen enough of Trump and are scared of of the damage another 4 years of this would bring.  Go Blue!
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I haven't read or heard anyone with this opinion but I think you're probably right. Thanks for posting. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Please be clear. Do you think the Supreme Court is corrupted?
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We can expect any opinion about corruption to be along party lines per usual, as each side thinks the other is morally corrupt. I think almost all career politicians are relatively useless at best or corrupt at worst and wish Congress had term limits and wish that corporate lobbying was illegal.  

For the Supreme Court, I don't have any issues with any of the judges, but there is no compelling reason why a judge should have a seat for life. An 18 year term seems like it would be long enough for the least accountable branch of government. The average life span in colonial America was only 38 years old. I don't think our founding fathers actually anticipated a judge might last three decades or more on the bench. Nobody should be "serving" in any branch of government when they are 85+ years old. Just like nobody under 35 should be President. 

 
CNN shared some more info, focusing on the swing states, on the massive early voting numbers - they're more heavily young voters and minority voters than four years ago.  So a lot more voting, and a greater percentage of them are more likely to support Biden.

 
I'm wondering if there's a lot of people that were planning on voting for Trump soley because of the SOCTUS seat will cast for Biden now since they got they already got what they wanted?

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
I'm wondering if there's a lot of people that were planning on voting for Trump soley because of the SOCTUS seat will cast for Biden now since they got they already got what they wanted?
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I can't imagine this being a significant factor.

Its not like the court is set forever now. The next president COULD have appointments to make. And if you're the kind of person who changes your vote based on the supreme court, I can't imagine you're now going to vote for someone who will likely work to roll it back the other way if given the opportunity.  Breyer is 82 years old, Thomas isn't that old but has been on the bench for nearly 30 years (he could presumably decide to retire). Anything could happen

 
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/see-the-corrupt-court-for-what-it-is

"See the Corrupt Court for What It Is"

There are people of good will who believe that saying such things out loud undermines the legitimacy of the Court. This is quaint and sad. Because the authors of the corruption rely on this fealty to a broken legitimacy to advance their corruption, to sustain a respect for norms, precedent and rule-following as they run roughshod over all of them. 

 
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Snotbubbles said:
What's the right thing?  In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution.  The Senate provides advice and consent.  They aren't required to confirm a nominee.  Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.    
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You'd have to follow the quotes back.  In this context, "the right thing" is not going along with Trump's scheme to try to steal the election if things don't go his way.

 
I've moved back to a 50/50 toss up.  Was slightly favoring Biden to win last week in a close one.  Now back to thinking that happens for Trump.  No solid concreate reason as to why other then fear.

 
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AndrewClark said:
@Joe Bryant  and everyone here... you know what does suck? That this is the first time since 2000 where I feel like no one will have a clue who "won" based on election night TV coverage. That is the scary part to me. 
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That might end up happening, but I think it's been reported on so much that it's actually overrated. Like a draft guy being so hyped as underrated he becomes over valued. If you take RCP's electoral map, Biden has a 232-125 lead in states that are basically uncontested at this point. I think the only quibble anyone might have is that they have MI to Biden in the easy victory column. 538 gives Biden a 95% chance of a win, so I'm comfortable including it.

The Washington Post expects that Florida, NC, and Arizona will have their votes counted on election night. PA is the laggard, and it's generally seen as the most important state this year, so it makes sense that people put a lot of focus on it. But if Florida is called for Biden (65% chance according to 538), then it's over. That gets Biden to 262, and Trump has to win everywhere except he can lose one of Iowa or Nevada (Biden is at 90% to win Nevada at 538). Similarly, most of AZ and MN will be counted before election day. If you give Biden AZ, MN, and NV (66%, 94%, and 90%), he is at 259 including the states he won't lose. That's also probably an impossible hill to climb for Trump.

We might also see that there was a 5-8% polling error, and Trump is romping his way to victory. I doubt we know every state next Tuesday, but I'd sig bet that 538/NYTimes/Washington Post/NPR/WSJ have called it one way or another even factoring in how conservative I expect them to be.

Link to Washington Post's updated FAQs about election night/what states are doing what.

 
I thought it would be close but think Biden wins pretty easily now. My anecdotal evidence? Several first time voters i know in their mid and late 30s. All are voting for Biden. 

 
I was 70-80, but now I'm thinking 90-94.

Joe Summer posted the numbers below in the other thread.  And most polsters have corrected some of the mistakes they made from 4 years ago.  I truly believe this will be such a rout, that Trump may not have the ability to really contest anything.

538, 2016: Clinton +3.9%, 71.2% chance of winning, projected at 303 electoral votes

538, 2020: Biden +7.9%, 88% chance of winning, projected at 344 electoral votes

RCP, 2016: Clinton +1.7%, projected at 273 electoral votes

RCP, 2020: Biden +7.4%, projected at 311 electoral votes

 
Snotbubbles said:
What's the right thing?  In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution.  The Senate provides advice and consent.  They aren't required to confirm a nominee.  Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.    
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Great. As McConnell said last night “we had the power so we used it”. 

 
Snotbubbles said:
What's the right thing?  In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution.  The Senate provides advice and consent.  They aren't required to confirm a nominee.  Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.    
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Is this illegal?  Is this unconstitutional?  Has it ever been done before?

The American people will speak next Tuesday on whether or not they want this to happen.

 
I put it at 60-70% for the sole reason that I see no reason Trump won’t claim victory at some point in the night and try to take it to court repeatedly.  

 
Snotbubbles said:
What's the right thing?  In the confirmation process the Republicans followed the Constitution.  The Senate provides advice and consent.  They aren't required to confirm a nominee.  Now Democrats want to expand the Court, add States they think will be Democrat seats, abolish the electoral college all for the sake of power.    
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In all fairness, PR and DC have been floated as possible states for a long time. While you are correct that these might vote Democrat, it’s not like they’re looking at those because they’re democrat leaning and ignoring a republican area for statehood. Sure, if they were going to vote red maybe they aren’t as motivated to do this, but in the argument for statehood, the power structure of the current parties in power should have absolutely zero bearing. Giving PR a voice and representation in Washington should be debated on the merits of that idea. If it’s the right thing to do, who they might side with on issues should not be a consideration at all. 

 
Chaz McNulty said:
Is this illegal?  Is this unconstitutional?  Has it ever been done before?

The American people will speak next Tuesday on whether or not they want this to happen.
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When your candidate has bent over backwards to avoid taking a position on court packing, you can't very well argue that that candidate's victory says anything about the public's appetite for court-packing.  I mean, I guess you can try, but we can all see that for what it is.

Lots of -- me for example -- are voting for Biden precisely because we want to see a return to norms.  

 
Chaz McNulty said:
Is this illegal?  Is this unconstitutional?  Has it ever been done before?

The American people will speak next Tuesday on whether or not they want this to happen.
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It is legal, constitutional, and has happened before.   That's why Marco Rubio introduced a constitutional amendment that would prevent it.   Congress passed the current  legislation setting the number at 9 in 1869.   Congress made the law; congress can change the law.

 
I voted 50-59%. I am thinking many mail in ballots will be rejected from many undecided and Democrats who put off getting them in on time. Polls don't mean squat if you don't get your vote cast. Many states including Minnesota today will not be counting ballots received after Nov 3rd. How can these people be so lazy as to put it off so late or not take their vote to a drop box? 

 
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If i watch media Biden gets it. If i observe the pulse on the ground and comment sections on the internet, Trump gets it.

 
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lazyike said:
I voted 50-59%. I am thinking many mail in ballots will be rejected from many undecided and Democrats who put off getting them in on time. Polls don't mean squat if you don't get your vote cast. Many states including Minnesota today will not be counting ballots received after Nov 3rd. How can these people be so lazy as to put it off so late or not take their vote to a drop box? 
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Or they could show up and vote in person (or drop their ballot off in person). Also, it is estimated that mail in ballots so far have been a large majority from Democrats, so what makes the Democrats the likely party to put off getting them in on time? They already HAVE gotten them in on time.

 
lazyike said:
I voted 50-59%. I am thinking many mail in ballots will be rejected from many undecided and Democrats who put off getting them in on time. Polls don't mean squat if you don't get your vote cast. Many states including Minnesota today will not be counting ballots received after Nov 3rd. How can these people be so lazy as to put it off so late or not take their vote to a drop box? 
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I would answer this but Door Dash just arrived with my two McDonald's double QP value meals. 

;)

Serious answer is that, unfortunately, unless a political figure or policy personally affects someone or person they love, there isn't a motivation for change. 

ETA

Seriously though, think I'm going to pound the "extra" Arby's sandwich I bought for dinner. :bag:

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Or they could show up and vote in person (or drop their ballot off in person). Also, it is estimated that mail in ballots so far have been a large majority from Democrats, so what makes the Democrats the likely party to put off getting them in on time? They already HAVE gotten them in on time.
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Story ran just yesterday Oct 28

https://madison.com/news/national/millions-of-mail-ballots-not-yet-returned-in-key-states/article_8d99f2ed-7f2a-5881-8d14-e0ab1274af0c.html

 
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This feels eerily similar to 2016.  I feel confident about Biden leading in the polls but everywhere around me is obnoxious Trump flags.  I'm not holding my breath.

 
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