Who Wins The Election? 1 Week Out (1 Viewer)

[GROOT]

well now I’m worried

same formula last time

 

[AAABatteries]

Story ran just yesterday Oct 28

https://madison.com/news/national/millions-of-mail-ballots-not-yet-returned-in-key-states/article_8d99f2ed-7f2a-5881-8d14-e0ab1274af0c.html

What's the likelihood that the people who don't get there's back in are people who in previous elections didn't vote or possibly had their ballots not count previously?  Meaning - why should we automatically assume that these people will turn it in late with the expectation it will count?  I mean, I want everyone's vote to count but it seems to be this is being overblown some.

 

[skol asylum]

What's the likelihood that the people who don't get there's back in are people who in previous elections didn't vote or possibly had their ballots not count previously?  Meaning - why should we automatically assume that these people will turn it in late with the expectation it will count?  I mean, I want everyone's vote to count but it seems to be this is being overblown some.

I think the assumption is alot of these people could be first time mail in voters because of Covid. Could be that they assume if it's postmarked by election day they are good to go. I mean if it's good enough for the IRS why not for elections, the logic may go. 

 

[Doug B]

In most places, doesn’t mail generally get to domestic addresses — especially in-state — within 48-72 hours?

Ballots already mailed should arrive for Tuesday, one would think.

 

[skol asylum]

In most places, doesn’t mail generally get to domestic addresses — especially in-state — within 48-72 hours?

Ballots already mailed should arrive for Tuesday, one would think.

In normal times, probably. Trump's crony Louis DeJoy has done his best to handcuff operations of the postal service though leading to delays.

 

[Goodell's Alias]

In most places, doesn’t mail generally get to domestic addresses — especially in-state — within 48-72 hours?

Ballots already mailed should arrive for Tuesday, one would think.

I believe most prestamped ballots are not first-class (i.e. a regular stamp), but marked as bulk instead, and could take longer, especially given recent attempts to undermine such delivery.

 

[FBG26]

Same here....way more Trump signs  and flags in Mn than in 2016 and Hillary only won by 1.5%

In MN in 2016, Gary Johnson had 3.8% and Evan McMullin had 1.8% of the vote, and 3.0% of the vote went to others. That's 8.6% of the vote that went to a third-party candidate. In 2012, less than 2% went to a third-party candidate, which was similar in 2008 and 2004. Kerry (04) got 51%, Obama (08) got 54%, and Obama (12) got 53% of the MN vote. Point is, MN isn't likely to turn red. People just didn't like Hillary. People don't dislike Biden in the same way. Not saying all of that 8.6% third-party vote from 2016 will go to Biden, but enough of that 8.6% will go to Biden to take MN. I personally think Biden will win MN by 5+ points (51-46 is my guess strictly based on the presidential elections from 2004 to date). 

Edit to add: Trump could still win the electoral college, but I'd be shocked if he wins MN. 

 

[AAABatteries]

In MN in 2016, Gary Johnson had 3.8% and Evan McMullin had 1.8% of the vote, and 3.0% of the vote went to others. That's 8.6% of the vote that went to a third-party candidate. In 2012, less than 2% went to a third-party candidate, which was similar in 2008 and 2004. Kerry (04) got 51%, Obama (08) got 54%, and Obama (12) got 53% of the MN vote. Point is, MN isn't likely to turn red. People just didn't like Hillary. People don't dislike Biden in the same way. Not saying all of that 8.6% third-party vote from 2016 will go to Biden, but enough of that 8.6% will go to Biden to take MN. I personally think Biden will win MN by 5+ points (51-46 is my guess strictly based on the presidential elections from 2004 to date). 

Edit to add: Trump could still win the electoral college, but I'd be shocked if he wins MN. 

I'm not sure the bolded can be stated enough.  Four years later and Trump is still talking about her and people are saying to lock her up.  Deserved or not she was a horrible pick for the D's (even with good qualifications).  There's a very good reason that the line of attack by Trump and the GOP the last few weeks leading up to the election has been about Biden being corrupt and about Hunter.  It has nothing to do with Trump actually caring about getting rid of corruption.  He's trying his best to get folks to hate Biden as much as they did Hillary.  It ain't working.