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hagmania

***Official 2020 Election General***

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A thread for general talk about the 2020 General Election

Poll closing times
Election tracker: NYT
Election tracker: Politico
When to expect results from each state - Guide by 538

 

Informative posts ITT:

caustic's battleground precincts to watch

 

 

Don't change the title

 

Edited by Joe Bryant
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Annnnnnnnnd we're off.

5 New Hampshire residents are casting their ballots now and we'll have the first reported results of this year's election.

Edited by hagmania

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7 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Annnnnnnnnd we're off.

12 New Hampshire residents are casting their ballots now and we'll have the first reported results of this year's election.

Thought it was 5

Anyway, actual results from the first precinct reporting:

Biden 100%
Trump: 0%

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

Trump’s lawyers already suing in Dixville Notch court. 

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We call that a skunk in our neck of the woods.

Dixville Notch results (POTUS):

Joe Biden - 5 | Donald Trump - 0

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2 minutes ago, Capella said:

Trump’s lawyers already suing in Dixville Notch court. 

That reply Tweet was in jest

Barr: Holup

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Millsfield, the other New Hampshire town to vote at midnight, has now reported results as well. Trump 16, Biden 5

Updated NH totals:
Trump 16
Biden 10

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I’m expecting this level of coverage throughout the day tomorrow (and beyond). Keep up the great work!

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Hart’s Location, NH (around 41 registered voters) opted out of midnight voting this year due to concerns about the ongoing pandemic.

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Just now, Yo Mama said:

I’m expecting this level of coverage throughout the day tomorrow (and beyond). Keep up the great work!

I’ll be reporting from Williamsburg (Brooklyn) at 5:45 am. Follow my InstaStories for all day coverage.

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It's finally here! :) 

I put together a few things for you to chew on before polls close (or to reference as results come in). A synopsis of each Presidential battleground state including some key counties to watch, a rundown of important counties in closely contested Senate races, and an overview of some House contests. 

ETA: My goal here was to do three separate spoilers (President, Senate, House) but they ended up nesting in each other. Nice.

 

Donald Trump (R-inc.) vs. Joe Biden (D)
538 win probabilities: 89.3% Biden, 10.3% Trump
538 national polling average: Biden 51.8% (+8.4), Trump 43.4%

Battleground states:

MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)
75% white, 14% Black, 5% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +10
2016: Trump +0.2
538 polling average: Biden +8
538 win probabilities: Biden 95%, Trump 5%

Counties to watch:
Macomb (Detroit suburbs)

78% white, 13% Black, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +12

Calhoun (Battle Creek)
77% white, 11% Black, 6% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +12

Saginaw
69% white, 19% Black, 9% Latino, 21.1% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Trump +1

Oakland (Detroit suburbs)
72% white, 14% Black, 8% Asian, 46.4% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +8
2016: Clinton +8

Genesee (Flint)
72% white, 20% Black, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +9

 

PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)
76% white, 12% Black, 8% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +4.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 84%, Trump 16%

Counties to watch:
Lackawanna (Scranton)

84% white, 8% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +27
2016: Clinton +3

Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
79% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +19

Beaver (Pittsburgh exurbs)
89% white, 7% Black, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +7
2016: Trump +19

Chester (Philadelphia suburbs)
79% white, 6% Black, 8% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +1
2016: Clinton +10

Montgomery (Philadelphia suburbs)
75% white, 10% Black, 8% Asian, 5% Latino, 49% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Clinton +22

 

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
81% white, 6% Black, 7% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +0.7
538 polling average: Biden +8.4
538 win probabilities: Biden 94%, Trump 6%

Counties to watch:
Brown (Green Bay)

80% white, 9% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +12

Kenosha
75% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 26% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +12
2016: Trump +1

Waukesha (Milwaukee suburbs)
88% white, 4% Asian, 5% Latino, 44% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +27

Winnebago (Oshkosh)
68% white, 14% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +7

Racine (Milwaukee suburbs)
71% white, 12% Black, 14% Latino, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +5

 

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)
53% white, 17% Black, 26% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +2.5
538 win probabilities: Biden 69% (nice), Trump 31%

Counties to watch:
Sumter (The Villages)

85% white, 7% Black, 6% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +39

Duval (Jacksonville)
52% white, 31% Back, 11% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +3
2016: Trump +1

Miami-Dade (Miami)
13% white, 18% Black, 69% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +24
2016: Clinton +30

Broward (Fort Lauderdale)
35% white, 30% Black, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +35
2016: Clinton +36

Pinellas (St. Petersburg)
74% white, 11% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +2

 

NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
63% white, 22% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +4
538 polling average: Biden +2.8
538 win probabilities: Biden 64%, Trump 36%

Counties to watch
Wake (Raleigh)

60% white, 21% Black, 10% Latino, 8% Asian, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Clinton +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
46% white, 33% Black, 14% Latino, 6% Asian, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
25% White, 24% Black, 42% American Indian, 9% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +17
2016: Trump +4

Durham
43% white, 37% Black, 14% Latino, 48% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +53
2016: Clinton +60

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
71% white, 18% Black, 8% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +25
2016: Trump +32

 

ARIZONA (10 electoral votes)
54% white, 5% Black, 5% American Indian, 32% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +9
2016: Trump +3.5
538 polling average: Biden +2.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 68%, Trump 32%

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

55% white, 6% Back, 5% Asian, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +10
2016: Trump +3

Pima (Tuscon)
51% white, 4% Black, 4% American Indian, 38% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Clinton +13

Yuma
30% white, 65% Latino, 15% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +13
2016: Trump +1

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
56% white, 31% Latino, 7% American Indian, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +19

Mohave (Rural NW Arizona)
77% white, 17% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +42
2016: Trump +51

 

GEORGIA (16 electoral votes)
52% white, 33% Black, 4% Asian, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +7.8
2016: Trump +5.1
538 polling average: Biden +1.1
538 win probabilities: Biden 58%, Trump 42%

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

35% white, 30% Black, 13% Asian, 22% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +9
2016: Clinton +6

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
51% white, 29% Black, 13% Latino, 6% Asian, 47% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +12
2016: Clinton +2

Peach (Fort Valley)
45% white, 44% Black, 8% Latino, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +3

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
69% white, 16% Asian, 10% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +63
2016: Trump +47

Fulton (Atlanta)
40% white, 45% Black, 8% Asian, 7% Latino, 51% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +42

 

IOWA (6 electoral votes)
85% white, 4% Black, 6% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +6
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.3
538 win probabilities: Trump 60%, Biden 40%

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

85% white, 6% Black, 3% Latino, 33% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +18
2016: Clinton +9

Dubuque
90% white, 4% Black, 3% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Trump +1

Polk (Des Moines)
77% white, 7% Black, 9% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +12

Woodbury (Sioux City)
71% white, 5% Black, 17% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +20

Scott (Davenport)
80% white, 8% Black, 7% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +2

 

OHIO (18 electoral votes)
78% white, 13% Black, 4% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +8
538 polling average: Trump +0.7
538 win probabilities: Trump 55%, Biden 45%

Counties to watch
Stark (Canton)

86% white, 8% Black, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Trump +17

Montgomery (Dayton)
70% white, 22% Black, 27% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1

Mahoning (Youngstown)
76% white, 16% Black, 7% Latino, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +3

Trumbull (Warren)
87% white, 9% Black, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Trump +6

Franklin (Columbus)
62% White, 24% Black, 6% Asian, 6% Latino, 39% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +26

 

TEXAS (38 electoral votes)
41% white, 40% Latino, 13% Black, 5% Asian, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.2
538 win probabilities: Trump 62%, Biden 38%

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

29% white, 20% Black, 44% Latino, 7% Asian, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Clinton +12

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
45% white, 18% Black, 30% Latino, 6% Asian, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
55% white, 11% Black, 16% Asian, 16% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +17

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
58% white, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 20% Latino, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +20

Hays (Austin suburbs)
53% white, 40% Latino, 5% Black, 37% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +11
2016: Trump +1

Similar for key Senate races:

 

Current Senate balance: 53R - 47D
538 probabilities of earning Senate control: Dems 74%, GOP 26%

Doug Jones is all but finished in Alabama, so Dems need to flip at least four seats to control the Senate. AZ, CO, ME, and NC are their top targets. Beyond the "core four," Democrats have aspirations in red states such as MT, SC, AK, IA, and KS, meaning ticket splitting will be crucial for their success. Below I look at important counties in each race, usually those that swing the most from the Presidential race to down-ballot races.

KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
538 win probabilities: Marshall 80%, Bollier 20%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Kelly (D) +4

Counties to watch
Johnson County (KC Suburbs)

2016 Pres: Trump +2
2018 Gov: Kelly +17

Sedgwick (Wichita)
2016 Pres: Trump +18
2018 Gov: Kelly +4

Douglas (Lawrence)
2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Kelly +53

Shawnee (Topeka)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kelly +24

 

MONTANA
Steve Bullock (D) vs. Steve Daines (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Daines 69% (nice), Bullock 31%
2016 Gov: Bullock (D) +4
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Tester (D) +4

Counties to watch
Yellowstone (Billings)

2016 Gov: Gianforte (R) +1
2016 Pres: Trump +26
2018 Sen: Rosendale (R) +5

Missoula
2016 Gov: Bullock +34
2016 Pres: Clinton +15
2018 Sen: Tester +37

Lewis and Clark (Helena)
2016 Gov: Bullock +23
2016 Pres: Trump +7
2018 Sen: Tester +18

Cascade (Great Falls)
2016 Gov: Bullock +10
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Sen: Tester +6

Silver Bow (Butte)
2016 Gov: Bullock +44
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Sen: Tester +46

 

COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Hickenlooper 84%, Gardner 16%
2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis (D) +11

Counties to watch
Larimer (Fort Collins)

2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Jefferson (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +7
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Arapahoe (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Gov: Polis +18

El Paso (Colorado Springs)
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Gov: Stapleton (R) +17

Pueblo
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Polis +6

 

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Giden 59%, Collins 41%
2016 Pres: Clinton +3
2018 Gov: Mills (D) +8

Counties to watch
Penobscot (Bangor)

2016 Pres: Trump +11
2018 Gov: Moody (R) +4

Hancock (Ellsworth)
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Mills +14

Washington (Machias)
2016 Pres: Trump +16
2018 Gov: Moody +6

 

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Kelly 78%, McSally 22%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2018 Sen: Sinema (D) +2

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Sen: Sinema +4

Yuma
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: McSally (R) +6

Pima (Tuscon)
2016 Pres: Clinton +13
2018 Sen: Sinema +16

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +19
2018 Sen: McSally +11

 

NORTH CAROLINA
Thom Tillis (R-inc.) vs. “Frisky Cal” Cunningham (D)
538 win probabilities: Cunningham 68%, Tillis 32%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: Cooper (D) +0

Counties to watch – this one is a little boring! Cooper outperformed Trump primarily in Appalachia, so he and Trump have nearly identical margins in these key counties. It’s unlikely that Cunningham will have similar strength in rural western NC, so he’ll be hoping to improve on Clinton/Cooper's margins here:

Wake (Raleigh)
2016 Pres: Clinton +20
2016 Gov: Cooper +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
2016 Pres: Clinton +29
2016 Gov: Cooper +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: McCrory +7

Durham
2016 Pres: Clinton +60
2016 Gov: Cooper +59

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +32
2016 Gov: McCrory (R) +27


SOUTH CAROLINA
Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsey Graham (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Graham 77%, Harrison 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: McMaster (R) +8

Counties to watch
Richland (Columbia)

2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Smith (D) +41

Charleston
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Smith +15

Horry (Myrtle Beach)
2016 Pres: Trump +38
2018 Gov: McMaster +30

Beaufort
2016 Pres: Trump +14
2018 Gov: McMaster +9

Greenville
2016 Pres: Trump +25
2018 Gov: McMaster +16

 

IOWA
Theresa Greenfield (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Ernst 58%, Greenfield 42%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Gov: Reynolds (R) +3

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

2016 Pres: Clinton +9
2018 Gov: Hubbell (D) +14

Dubuque
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Hubbell +1

Polk (Des Moines)
2016: Clinton +12
2018: Hubbell +17

Woodbury (Sioux City)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Reynolds +13

Scott (Davenport)
2016: Clinton +2
2018: Hubbell +4

 

TEXAS
M.J. Hegar (D) vs. John Cornyn (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Cornyn 86%, Hegar 14%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: Cruz +3

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

2016 Pres: Clinton +12
2018 Sen: O’Rourke (D) +17

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +1

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +17
2018 Sen: Cruz +6

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Cruz +8

Hays (Austin suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +15

 

ALASKA
Dan Sullivan (R-inc.) vs. Al Gross (D)
538 win probabilities: Sullivan 77%, Gross 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +15
2018 Gov: Dunleavy (R) +7

Counties to watch
Alaska doesn’t have counties, and I wasn’t able to quickly track down good data by borough. Sorry!

 

GEORGIA
(1) Jon Ossoff (D) vs. David Perdue (R-inc.);
(2) Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Kelly Loeffler (R-inc.) vs. Doug Collins (R) vs. Matt Lieberman (D)
538 win probabilities (Special election): Democrats 63%, Republicans 37%
538 win probabilities (Regular): Perdue 57%, Ossoff 43%

2016 Pres: Trump +5
2018 Gov: Kemp (R) +1

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

2016 Pres: Clinton +6
2018 Gov: Abrams (D) +14

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +2
2018 Gov: Abrams +10

Peach (Fort Valley)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kemp +5

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +47
2018 Gov: Kemp +43

Fulton (Atlanta)
2016 Pres: Clinton +42
2018 Gov: Abrams +47

538 gives Dems a 97% chance of keeping the House, so those races have largely been forgotten this year. Here's a brief take on some of the ones I'm watching:

 

(R incumbent) NE-02 (Omaha)
Don Bacon (R-inc.) vs. Kara Eastman (D)

NE-02 has received quite a bit of national attention as a pickup opportunity for Joe Biden since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by district. An unabashed progressive, Eastman is underperforming Biden but running neck-and-neck with Bacon. The latest NYT/Siena poll showed Biden leading by 7 (a 9-point shift from 2016) but Eastman trailing by 2.

(D) MN-07 (Rural Minnesota)
Collin Peterson (D-inc.) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R)

Considering that MN-07 voted for Trump by 31 points in 2016, it’s amazing that Peterson, a 15-term incumbent who chairs the House agriculture committee, has held on so long. The realities of this deep red district may finally be catching up to him, though, as the only publicly available poll shows Fischbach leading by 10.

(R) NJ-02 (Atlantic City)
Jeff Van Drew (R-inc.) vs. Amy Kennedy (D)

Van Drew made a name for himself by switching parties during Trump’s impeachment. At the time, Van Drew vowed to be a “tremendous defender” of the President, but he’s now adopted a more independent message after trailing in several polls. Biden has an average lead of 2.4 points here, a 7-point shift from 2016.

(R) VA-05 (Rural Virginia)
Bob Good (R) vs. Cameron Webb (D)

Last year it came out that VA-05 incumbent Denver Riggleman officiated a gay wedding. This triggered a primary challenge from Bob Good, who ran significantly to Riggleman’s right. Good won the primary but is now in danger of losing this rural district to Democrats. Biden is trailing in this district by an average of 2.5 points, an 8.6-point leftward shift from 2016, showing his strength with white rural voters relative to Clinton.

(R) IN-05 (Indianapolis suburbs)
Victoria Spartz (R) vs. Christina Hale (D)

IN-05 is another suburban district that’s zoomed leftward over the last four years. Polls show Biden leading here by an average of 10 points, a 22-point shift from 2016. Hale is hoping to ride Biden’s coattails and become the first House Democrat to be elected here since 1990.

(L) MI-03 (Grand Rapids)
Peter Meijer (R) vs. Hillary Scholten (D)

Home of the retiring Justin Amash, this district has also not elected a Democrat to the House since 1990. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016. Scholten is also leading by an average 4.5 points, drawing on the healthcare & jobs message that Democrats used in their 2018 blue wave.

(R) TX-24 (DFW suburbs)
Beth Van Duyne (R) vs. Candace Valenzuela (D)

Republican incumbent Kenny Marchant narrowly won re-election in 2018 and is retiring at the end of this year. This is another suburban pickup opportunity for Democrats – Biden leads by an average of 5 points, an 11-point shift from 2016. A sign of the district’s changing partisan preferences, Van Duyne has at times shied away from the Republican label and is campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions. Valenzuela maintains a solid advantage in fundraising.

(D) NY-22 (Binghamton/Utica)
Anthony Brindisi (D-inc.) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)

There’s been tons of coverage of Democrats’ inroads in suburban communities, but NY-22 is a different story: it’s filled with white working-class voters who switched from Obama to Trump en masse in 2016. Polls show Biden clawing back many of those voters – Siena college has Biden up 1 point, a 16.5-point shift from 2016. Brindisi is hoping to beat his 2018 margin of victory in an environment that’s even more favorable to Democrats.

(D) OK-05 (OKC/Shawnee)
Kendra Horn (D-inc.) vs. Stephanie Bice (R)

Horn surprised many people by narrowly winning this Trump +13 district in 2018. While the district is shifting in Democrats’ favor – Trump leads by an average of 4 points, a 9-point shift – it remains difficult terrain for Horn. Polls indicate a tossup here.

(R) PA-10 (Harrisburg)
Scott Perry (R-inc.) vs. Eugene DePasquale (D)

In early 2018, the PA Supreme Court ruled that the state’s congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. PA-10, originally a Trump +22 district, was re-drawn into a Trump +9 district. Scott Perry won by only 2.5 points in 2018 and appears to be facing even stronger headwinds in 2020. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016.

Other House races to watch: IA-01, IA-02, NY-11, AR-02, CA-25, MO-02, NY-02, TX-21, TX-22, NC-09, CA-21, UT-04

Can't wait to see how all this shakes out. :thumbup:

Edited by caustic
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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

Hart’s Location, NH (around 41 registered voters) opted out of midnight voting this year due to concerns about the ongoing pandemic.

I’ll chalk them up in the Biden column. 

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1 minute ago, caustic said:

It's finally here! :) 

I put together a few things for you to chew on before polls close (or to reference as results come in). A synopsis of each battleground state, including key counties to watch:

 

  Hide contents

 

Donald Trump (R-inc.) vs. Joe Biden (D)
538 win probabilities: 89.3% Biden, 10.3% Trump
538 national polling average: Biden 51.8% (+8.4), Trump 43.4%

Battleground states:

MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)
75% white, 14% Black, 5% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +10
2016: Trump +0.2
538 polling average: Biden +8
538 win probabilities: Biden 95%, Trump 5%

Counties to watch:
Macomb (Detroit suburbs)

78% white, 13% Black, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +12

Calhoun (Battle Creek)
77% white, 11% Black, 6% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +12

Saginaw
69% white, 19% Black, 9% Latino, 21.1% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Trump +1

Oakland (Detroit suburbs)
72% white, 14% Black, 8% Asian, 46.4% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +8
2016: Clinton +8

Genesee (Flint)
72% white, 20% Black, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +9

 

PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)
76% white, 12% Black, 8% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +4.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 84%, Trump 16%

Counties to watch:
Lackawanna (Scranton)

84% white, 8% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +27
2016: Clinton +3

Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
79% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +19

Beaver (Pittsburgh exurbs)
89% white, 7% Black, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +7
2016: Trump +19

Chester (Philadelphia suburbs)
79% white, 6% Black, 8% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +1
2016: Clinton +10

Montgomery (Philadelphia suburbs)
75% white, 10% Black, 8% Asian, 5% Latino, 49% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Clinton +22

 

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
81% white, 6% Black, 7% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +0.7
538 polling average: Biden +8.4
538 win probabilities: Biden 94%, Trump 6%

Counties to watch:
Brown (Green Bay)

80% white, 9% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +12

Kenosha
75% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 26% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +12
2016: Trump +1

Waukesha (Milwaukee suburbs)
88% white, 4% Asian, 5% Latino, 44% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +27

Winnebago (Oshkosh)
68% white, 14% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +7

Racine (Milwaukee suburbs)
71% white, 12% Black, 14% Latino, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +5

 

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)
53% white, 17% Black, 26% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +2.5
538 win probabilities: Biden 69% (nice), Trump 31%

Counties to watch:
Sumter (The Villages)

85% white, 7% Black, 6% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +39

Duval (Jacksonville)
52% white, 31% Back, 11% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +3
2016: Trump +1

Miami-Dade (Miami)
13% white, 18% Black, 69% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +24
2016: Clinton +30

Broward (Fort Lauderdale)
35% white, 30% Black, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +35
2016: Clinton +36

Pinellas (St. Petersburg)
74% white, 11% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +2

 

NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
63% white, 22% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +4
538 polling average: Biden +2.8
538 win probabilities: Biden 64%, Trump 36%

Counties to watch
Wake (Raleigh)

60% white, 21% Black, 10% Latino, 8% Asian, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Clinton +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
46% white, 33% Black, 14% Latino, 6% Asian, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
25% White, 24% Black, 42% American Indian, 9% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +17
2016: Trump +4

Durham
43% white, 37% Black, 14% Latino, 48% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +53
2016: Clinton +60

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
71% white, 18% Black, 8% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +25
2016: Trump +32

 

ARIZONA (10 electoral votes)
54% white, 5% Black, 5% American Indian, 32% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +9
2016: Trump +3.5
538 polling average: Biden +2.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 68%, Trump 32%

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

55% white, 6% Back, 5% Asian, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +10
2016: Trump +3

Pima (Tuscon)
51% white, 4% Black, 4% American Indian, 38% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Clinton +13

Yuma
30% white, 65% Latino, 15% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +13
2016: Trump +1

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
56% white, 31% Latino, 7% American Indian, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +19

Mohave (Rural NW Arizona)
77% white, 17% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +42
2016: Trump +51

 

GEORGIA (16 electoral votes)
52% white, 33% Black, 4% Asian, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +7.8
2016: Trump +5.1
538 polling average: Biden +1.1
538 win probabilities: Biden 58%, Trump 42%

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

35% white, 30% Black, 13% Asian, 22% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +9
2016: Clinton +6

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
51% white, 29% Black, 13% Latino, 6% Asian, 47% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +12
2016: Clinton +2

Peach (Fort Valley)
45% white, 44% Black, 8% Latino, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +3

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
69% white, 16% Asian, 10% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +63
2016: Trump +47

Fulton (Atlanta)
40% white, 45% Black, 8% Asian, 7% Latino, 51% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +42

 

IOWA (6 electoral votes)
85% white, 4% Black, 6% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +6
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.3
538 win probabilities: Trump 60%, Biden 40%

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

85% white, 6% Black, 3% Latino, 33% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +18
2016: Clinton +9

Dubuque
90% white, 4% Black, 3% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Trump +1

Polk (Des Moines)
77% white, 7% Black, 9% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +12

Woodbury (Sioux City)
71% white, 5% Black, 17% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +20

Scott (Davenport)
80% white, 8% Black, 7% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +2

 

OHIO (18 electoral votes)
78% white, 13% Black, 4% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +8
538 polling average: Trump +0.7
538 win probabilities: Trump 55%, Biden 45%

Counties to watch
Stark (Canton)

86% white, 8% Black, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Trump +17

Montgomery (Dayton)
70% white, 22% Black, 27% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1

Mahoning (Youngstown)
76% white, 16% Black, 7% Latino, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +3

Trumbull (Warren)
87% white, 9% Black, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Trump +6

Franklin (Columbus)
62% White, 24% Black, 6% Asian, 6% Latino, 39% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +26

 

TEXAS (38 electoral votes)
41% white, 40% Latino, 13% Black, 5% Asian, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.2
538 win probabilities: Trump 62%, Biden 38%

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

29% white, 20% Black, 44% Latino, 7% Asian, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Clinton +12

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
45% white, 18% Black, 30% Latino, 6% Asian, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
55% white, 11% Black, 16% Asian, 16% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +17

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
58% white, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 20% Latino, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +20

Hays (Austin suburbs)
53% white, 40% Latino, 5% Black, 37% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +11
2016: Trump +1

 

Similar for key Senate races:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Current Senate balance: 53R - 47D
538 probabilities of earning Senate control: Dems 74%, GOP 26%

Doug Jones is all but finished in Alabama, so Dems need to flip at least four seats to control the Senate. AZ, CO, ME, and NC are their top targets. Beyond the "core four," Democrats have aspirations in red states such as MT, SC, AK, IA, and KS, meaning ticket splitting will be crucial for their success. Below I look at important counties in each race, usually those that swing the most from the Presidential race to down-ballot races.

KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
538 win probabilities: Marshall 80%, Bollier 20%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Kelly (D) +4

Counties to watch
Johnson County (KC Suburbs)

2016 Pres: Trump +2
2018 Gov: Kelly +17

Sedgwick (Wichita)
2016 Pres: Trump +18
2018 Gov: Kelly +4

Douglas (Lawrence)
2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Kelly +53

Shawnee (Topeka)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kelly +24

 

MONTANA
Steve Bullock (D) vs. Steve Daines (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Daines 69% (nice), Bullock 31%
2016 Gov: Bullock (D) +4
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Tester (D) +4

Counties to watch
Yellowstone (Billings)

2016 Gov: Gianforte (R) +1
2016 Pres: Trump +26
2018 Sen: Rosendale (R) +5

Missoula
2016 Gov: Bullock +34
2016 Pres: Clinton +15
2018 Sen: Tester +37

Lewis and Clark (Helena)
2016 Gov: Bullock +23
2016 Pres: Trump +7
2018 Sen: Tester +18

Cascade (Great Falls)
2016 Gov: Bullock +10
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Sen: Tester +6

Silver Bow (Butte)
2016 Gov: Bullock +44
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Sen: Tester +46

 

COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Hickenlooper 84%, Gardner 16%
2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis (D) +11

Counties to watch
Larimer (Fort Collins)

2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Jefferson (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +7
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Arapahoe (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Gov: Polis +18

El Paso (Colorado Springs)
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Gov: Stapleton (R) +17

Pueblo
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Polis +6

 

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Giden 59%, Collins 41%
2016 Pres: Clinton +3
2018 Gov: Mills (D) +8

Counties to watch
Penobscot (Bangor)

2016 Pres: Trump +11
2018 Gov: Moody (R) +4

Hancock (Ellsworth)
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Mills +14

Washington (Machias)
2016 Pres: Trump +16
2018 Gov: Moody +6

 

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Kelly 78%, McSally 22%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2018 Sen: Sinema (D) +2

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Sen: Sinema +4

Yuma
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: McSally (R) +6

Pima (Tuscon)
2016 Pres: Clinton +13
2018 Sen: Sinema +16

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +19
2018 Sen: McSally +11

 

NORTH CAROLINA
Thom Tillis (R-inc.) vs. “Frisky Cal” Cunningham (D)
538 win probabilities: Cunningham 68%, Tillis 32%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: Cooper (D) +0

Counties to watch – this one is a little boring! Cooper outperformed Trump primarily in Appalachia, so he and Trump have nearly identical margins in these key counties. It’s unlikely that Cunningham will have similar strength in rural western NC, so he’ll be hoping to improve on Clinton/Cooper's margins here:

Wake (Raleigh)
2016 Pres: Clinton +20
2016 Gov: Cooper +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
2016 Pres: Clinton +29
2016 Gov: Cooper +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: McCrory +7

Durham
2016 Pres: Clinton +60
2016 Gov: Cooper +59

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +32
2016 Gov: McCrory (R) +27


SOUTH CAROLINA
Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsey Graham (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Graham 77%, Harrison 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: McMaster (R) +8

Counties to watch
Richland (Columbia)

2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Smith (D) +41

Charleston
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Smith +15

Horry (Myrtle Beach)
2016 Pres: Trump +38
2018 Gov: McMaster +30

Beaufort
2016 Pres: Trump +14
2018 Gov: McMaster +9

Greenville
2016 Pres: Trump +25
2018 Gov: McMaster +16

 

IOWA
Theresa Greenfield (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Ernst 58%, Greenfield 42%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Gov: Reynolds (R) +3

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

2016 Pres: Clinton +9
2018 Gov: Hubbell (D) +14

Dubuque
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Hubbell +1

Polk (Des Moines)
2016: Clinton +12
2018: Hubbell +17

Woodbury (Sioux City)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Reynolds +13

Scott (Davenport)
2016: Clinton +2
2018: Hubbell +4

 

TEXAS
M.J. Hegar (D) vs. John Cornyn (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Cornyn 86%, Hegar 14%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: Cruz +3

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

2016 Pres: Clinton +12
2018 Sen: O’Rourke (D) +17

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +1

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +17
2018 Sen: Cruz +6

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Cruz +8

Hays (Austin suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +15

 

ALASKA
Dan Sullivan (R-inc.) vs. Al Gross (D)
538 win probabilities: Sullivan 77%, Gross 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +15
2018 Gov: Dunleavy (R) +7

Counties to watch
Alaska doesn’t have counties, and I wasn’t able to quickly track down good data by borough. Sorry!

 

GEORGIA
(1) Jon Ossoff (D) vs. David Perdue (R-inc.);
(2) Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Kelly Loeffler (R-inc.) vs. Doug Collins (R) vs. Matt Lieberman (D)
538 win probabilities (Special election): Democrats 63%, Republicans 37%
538 win probabilities (Regular): Perdue 57%, Ossoff 43%

2016 Pres: Trump +5
2018 Gov: Kemp (R) +1

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

2016 Pres: Clinton +6
2018 Gov: Abrams (D) +14

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +2
2018 Gov: Abrams +10

Peach (Fort Valley)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kemp +5

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +47
2018 Gov: Kemp +43

Fulton (Atlanta)
2016 Pres: Clinton +42
2018 Gov: Abrams +47

 

538 gives Dems a 97% chance of keeping the House, so those races have largely been forgotten this year. Here's a brief take on some of the ones I'm watching:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

(R incumbent) NE-02 (Omaha)
Don Bacon (R-inc.) vs. Kara Eastman (D)

NE-02 has received quite a bit of national attention as a pickup opportunity for Joe Biden since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by district. An unabashed progressive, Eastman is underperforming Biden but running neck-and-neck with Bacon. The latest NYT/Siena poll showed Biden leading by 7 (a 9-point shift from 2016) but Eastman trailing by 2.

(D) MN-07 (Rural Minnesota)
Collin Peterson (D-inc.) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R)

Considering that MN-07 voted for Trump by 31 points in 2016, it’s amazing that Peterson, a 15-term incumbent who chairs the House agriculture committee, has held on so long. The realities of this deep red district may finally be catching up to him, though, as the only publicly available poll shows Fischbach leading by 10.

(R) NJ-02 (Atlantic City)
Jeff Van Drew (R-inc.) vs. Amy Kennedy (D)

Van Drew made a name for himself by switching parties during Trump’s impeachment. At the time, Van Drew vowed to be a “tremendous defender” of the President, but he’s now adopted a more independent message after trailing in several polls. Biden has an average lead of 2.4 points here, a 7-point shift from 2016.

(R) VA-05 (Rural Virginia)
Bob Good (R) vs. Cameron Webb (D)

Last year it came out that VA-05 incumbent Denver Riggleman officiated a gay wedding. This triggered a primary challenge from Bob Good, who ran significantly to Riggleman’s right. Good won the primary but is now in danger of losing this rural district to Democrats. Biden is trailing in this district by an average of 2.5 points, an 8.6-point leftward shift from 2016, showing his strength with white rural voters relative to Clinton.

(R) IN-05 (Indianapolis suburbs)
Victoria Spartz (R) vs. Christina Hale (D)

IN-05 is another suburban district that’s zoomed leftward over the last four years. Polls show Biden leading here by an average of 10 points, a 22-point shift from 2016. Hale is hoping to ride Biden’s coattails and become the first House Democrat to be elected here since 1990.

(L) MI-03 (Grand Rapids)
Peter Meijer (R) vs. Hillary Scholten (D)

Home of the retiring Justin Amash, this district has also not elected a Democrat to the House since 1990. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016. Scholten is also leading by an average 4.5 points, drawing on the healthcare & jobs message that Democrats used in their 2018 blue wave.

(R) TX-24 (DFW suburbs)
Beth Van Duyne (R) vs. Candace Valenzuela (D)

Republican incumbent Kenny Marchant narrowly won re-election in 2018 and is retiring at the end of this year. This is another suburban pickup opportunity for Democrats – Biden leads by an average of 5 points, an 11-point shift from 2016. A sign of the district’s changing partisan preferences, Van Duyne has at times shied away from the Republican label and is campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions. Valenzuela maintains a solid advantage in fundraising.

(D) NY-22 (Binghamton/Utica)
Anthony Brindisi (D-inc.) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)

There’s been tons of coverage of Democrats’ inroads in suburban communities, but NY-22 is a different story: it’s filled with white working-class voters who switched from Obama to Trump en masse in 2016. Polls show Biden clawing back many of those voters – Siena college has Biden up 1 point, a 16.5-point shift from 2016. Brindisi is hoping to beat his 2018 margin of victory in an environment that’s even more favorable to Democrats.

(D) OK-05 (OKC/Shawnee)
Kendra Horn (D-inc.) vs. Stephanie Bice (R)

Horn surprised many people by narrowly winning this Trump +13 district in 2018. While the district is shifting in Democrats’ favor – Trump leads by an average of 4 points, a 9-point shift – it remains difficult terrain for Horn. Polls indicate a tossup here.

(R) PA-10 (Harrisburg)
Scott Perry (R-inc.) vs. Eugene DePasquale (D)

In early 2018, the PA Supreme Court ruled that the state’s congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. PA-10, originally a Trump +22 district, was re-drawn into a Trump +9 district. Scott Perry won by only 2.5 points in 2018 and appears to be facing even stronger headwinds in 2020. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016.

Other House races to watch: IA-01, IA-02, NY-11, AR-02, CA-25, MO-02, NY-02, TX-21, TX-22, NC-09, CA-21, UT-04

 

Can't wait to see how all this shakes out. :thumbup:

 

 

 

This is fantastic. Great work all fall @caustic

Any reason you didn’t list Wayne County (all of Detroit lies within it)? That is usually the best indicator of where Michigan is headed.

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Harris County (TX) is closing 9 out of 10 drive-thru polling places for today.

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5 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

This is fantastic. Great work all fall @caustic

 

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Any reason you didn’t list Wayne County (all of Detroit lies within it)? That is usually the best indicator of where Michigan is headed.

Thanks. :thumbup:

Honestly, I got so caught up looking for Obama/Trump(ish) counties in those midwest states that some of the bigger population centers got left out.

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11 minutes ago, caustic said:

It's finally here! :) 

I put together a few things for you to chew on before polls close (or to reference as results come in). A synopsis of each Presidential battleground state, including key counties to watch, a rundown of key counties in Senate races, and an overview of some House contests. 

ETA: My goal here was to do three separate spoilers (President, Senate, House) but they ended up nesting in each other. Nice.

  Reveal hidden contents

Donald Trump (R-inc.) vs. Joe Biden (D)
538 win probabilities: 89.3% Biden, 10.3% Trump
538 national polling average: Biden 51.8% (+8.4), Trump 43.4%

Battleground states:

MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)
75% white, 14% Black, 5% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +10
2016: Trump +0.2
538 polling average: Biden +8
538 win probabilities: Biden 95%, Trump 5%

Counties to watch:
Macomb (Detroit suburbs)

78% white, 13% Black, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +12

Calhoun (Battle Creek)
77% white, 11% Black, 6% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +12

Saginaw
69% white, 19% Black, 9% Latino, 21.1% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Trump +1

Oakland (Detroit suburbs)
72% white, 14% Black, 8% Asian, 46.4% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +8
2016: Clinton +8

Genesee (Flint)
72% white, 20% Black, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +9

 

PENNSYLVANIA (20 electoral votes)
76% white, 12% Black, 8% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +4.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 84%, Trump 16%

Counties to watch:
Lackawanna (Scranton)

84% white, 8% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +27
2016: Clinton +3

Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
79% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +19

Beaver (Pittsburgh exurbs)
89% white, 7% Black, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +7
2016: Trump +19

Chester (Philadelphia suburbs)
79% white, 6% Black, 8% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +1
2016: Clinton +10

Montgomery (Philadelphia suburbs)
75% white, 10% Black, 8% Asian, 5% Latino, 49% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Clinton +22

 

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
81% white, 6% Black, 7% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +0.7
538 polling average: Biden +8.4
538 win probabilities: Biden 94%, Trump 6%

Counties to watch:
Brown (Green Bay)

80% white, 9% Latino, 30% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +12

Kenosha
75% white, 7% Black, 14% Latino, 26% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +12
2016: Trump +1

Waukesha (Milwaukee suburbs)
88% white, 4% Asian, 5% Latino, 44% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +27

Winnebago (Oshkosh)
68% white, 14% Black, 14% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +4
2016: Trump +7

Racine (Milwaukee suburbs)
71% white, 12% Black, 14% Latino, 25% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +5

 

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)
53% white, 17% Black, 26% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +1
538 polling average: Biden +2.5
538 win probabilities: Biden 69% (nice), Trump 31%

Counties to watch:
Sumter (The Villages)

85% white, 7% Black, 6% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +35
2016: Trump +39

Duval (Jacksonville)
52% white, 31% Back, 11% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +3
2016: Trump +1

Miami-Dade (Miami)
13% white, 18% Black, 69% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +24
2016: Clinton +30

Broward (Fort Lauderdale)
35% white, 30% Black, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +35
2016: Clinton +36

Pinellas (St. Petersburg)
74% white, 11% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +2

 

NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
63% white, 22% Black, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +2
2016: Trump +4
538 polling average: Biden +2.8
538 win probabilities: Biden 64%, Trump 36%

Counties to watch
Wake (Raleigh)

60% white, 21% Black, 10% Latino, 8% Asian, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +11
2016: Clinton +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
46% white, 33% Black, 14% Latino, 6% Asian, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
25% White, 24% Black, 42% American Indian, 9% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +17
2016: Trump +4

Durham
43% white, 37% Black, 14% Latino, 48% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +53
2016: Clinton +60

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
71% white, 18% Black, 8% Latino, 21% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +25
2016: Trump +32

 

ARIZONA (10 electoral votes)
54% white, 5% Black, 5% American Indian, 32% Latino, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +9
2016: Trump +3.5
538 polling average: Biden +2.6
538 win probabilities: Biden 68%, Trump 32%

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

55% white, 6% Back, 5% Asian, 31% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +10
2016: Trump +3

Pima (Tuscon)
51% white, 4% Black, 4% American Indian, 38% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Clinton +13

Yuma
30% white, 65% Latino, 15% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +13
2016: Trump +1

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
56% white, 31% Latino, 7% American Indian, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +19

Mohave (Rural NW Arizona)
77% white, 17% Latino, 13% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +42
2016: Trump +51

 

GEORGIA (16 electoral votes)
52% white, 33% Black, 4% Asian, 10% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +7.8
2016: Trump +5.1
538 polling average: Biden +1.1
538 win probabilities: Biden 58%, Trump 42%

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

35% white, 30% Black, 13% Asian, 22% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +9
2016: Clinton +6

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
51% white, 29% Black, 13% Latino, 6% Asian, 47% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +12
2016: Clinton +2

Peach (Fort Valley)
45% white, 44% Black, 8% Latino, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +7
2016: Trump +3

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
69% white, 16% Asian, 10% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +63
2016: Trump +47

Fulton (Atlanta)
40% white, 45% Black, 8% Asian, 7% Latino, 51% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +42

 

IOWA (6 electoral votes)
85% white, 4% Black, 6% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +6
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.3
538 win probabilities: Trump 60%, Biden 40%

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

85% white, 6% Black, 3% Latino, 33% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +18
2016: Clinton +9

Dubuque
90% white, 4% Black, 3% Latino, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +15
2016: Trump +1

Polk (Des Moines)
77% white, 7% Black, 9% Latino, 36% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +12

Woodbury (Sioux City)
71% white, 5% Black, 17% Latino, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +1
2016: Trump +20

Scott (Davenport)
80% white, 8% Black, 7% Latino, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +14
2016: Clinton +2

 

OHIO (18 electoral votes)
78% white, 13% Black, 4% Latino, 28% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Obama +3
2016: Trump +8
538 polling average: Trump +0.7
538 win probabilities: Trump 55%, Biden 45%

Counties to watch
Stark (Canton)

86% white, 8% Black, 23% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Trump +17

Montgomery (Dayton)
70% white, 22% Black, 27% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +5
2016: Trump +1

Mahoning (Youngstown)
76% white, 16% Black, 7% Latino, 24% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +29
2016: Clinton +3

Trumbull (Warren)
87% white, 9% Black, 19% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Trump +6

Franklin (Columbus)
62% White, 24% Black, 6% Asian, 6% Latino, 39% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +23
2016: Clinton +26

 

TEXAS (38 electoral votes)
41% white, 40% Latino, 13% Black, 5% Asian, 29% with bachelor’s degree or higher

2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9
538 polling average: Trump +1.2
538 win probabilities: Trump 62%, Biden 38%

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

29% white, 20% Black, 44% Latino, 7% Asian, 31% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Obama +0.1
2016: Clinton +12

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
45% white, 18% Black, 30% Latino, 6% Asian, 32% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +16
2016: Trump +9

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
55% white, 11% Black, 16% Asian, 16% Latino, 52% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +17

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
58% white, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 20% Latino, 45% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +32
2016: Trump +20

Hays (Austin suburbs)
53% white, 40% Latino, 5% Black, 37% with bachelor’s degree or higher
2012: Romney +11
2016: Trump +1

Similar for key Senate races:

  Reveal hidden contents

Current Senate balance: 53R - 47D
538 probabilities of earning Senate control: Dems 74%, GOP 26%

Doug Jones is all but finished in Alabama, so Dems need to flip at least four seats to control the Senate. AZ, CO, ME, and NC are their top targets. Beyond the "core four," Democrats have aspirations in red states such as MT, SC, AK, IA, and KS, meaning ticket splitting will be crucial for their success. Below I look at important counties in each race, usually those that swing the most from the Presidential race to down-ballot races.

KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) vs. Barbara Bollier (D)
538 win probabilities: Marshall 80%, Bollier 20%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Kelly (D) +4

Counties to watch
Johnson County (KC Suburbs)

2016 Pres: Trump +2
2018 Gov: Kelly +17

Sedgwick (Wichita)
2016 Pres: Trump +18
2018 Gov: Kelly +4

Douglas (Lawrence)
2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Kelly +53

Shawnee (Topeka)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kelly +24

 

MONTANA
Steve Bullock (D) vs. Steve Daines (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Daines 69% (nice), Bullock 31%
2016 Gov: Bullock (D) +4
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Tester (D) +4

Counties to watch
Yellowstone (Billings)

2016 Gov: Gianforte (R) +1
2016 Pres: Trump +26
2018 Sen: Rosendale (R) +5

Missoula
2016 Gov: Bullock +34
2016 Pres: Clinton +15
2018 Sen: Tester +37

Lewis and Clark (Helena)
2016 Gov: Bullock +23
2016 Pres: Trump +7
2018 Sen: Tester +18

Cascade (Great Falls)
2016 Gov: Bullock +10
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Sen: Tester +6

Silver Bow (Butte)
2016 Gov: Bullock +44
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Sen: Tester +46

 

COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Hickenlooper 84%, Gardner 16%
2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis (D) +11

Counties to watch
Larimer (Fort Collins)

2016 Pres: Clinton +5
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Jefferson (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +7
2018 Gov: Polis +13

Arapahoe (Denver suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +14
2018 Gov: Polis +18

El Paso (Colorado Springs)
2016 Pres: Trump +22
2018 Gov: Stapleton (R) +17

Pueblo
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Polis +6

 

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) vs. Susan Collins (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Giden 59%, Collins 41%
2016 Pres: Clinton +3
2018 Gov: Mills (D) +8

Counties to watch
Penobscot (Bangor)

2016 Pres: Trump +11
2018 Gov: Moody (R) +4

Hancock (Ellsworth)
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Mills +14

Washington (Machias)
2016 Pres: Trump +16
2018 Gov: Moody +6

 

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) vs. Martha McSally (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Kelly 78%, McSally 22%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2018 Sen: Sinema (D) +2

Counties to watch
Maricopa (Phoenix)

2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Sen: Sinema +4

Yuma
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: McSally (R) +6

Pima (Tuscon)
2016 Pres: Clinton +13
2018 Sen: Sinema +16

Pinal (Phoenix exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +19
2018 Sen: McSally +11

 

NORTH CAROLINA
Thom Tillis (R-inc.) vs. “Frisky Cal” Cunningham (D)
538 win probabilities: Cunningham 68%, Tillis 32%
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: Cooper (D) +0

Counties to watch – this one is a little boring! Cooper outperformed Trump primarily in Appalachia, so he and Trump have nearly identical margins in these key counties. It’s unlikely that Cunningham will have similar strength in rural western NC, so he’ll be hoping to improve on Clinton/Cooper's margins here:

Wake (Raleigh)
2016 Pres: Clinton +20
2016 Gov: Cooper +20

Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
2016 Pres: Clinton +29
2016 Gov: Cooper +29

Robeson (Lumberton)
2016 Pres: Trump +4
2016 Gov: McCrory +7

Durham
2016 Pres: Clinton +60
2016 Gov: Cooper +59

Gaston (Charlotte exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +32
2016 Gov: McCrory (R) +27


SOUTH CAROLINA
Jaime Harrison (D) vs. Lindsey Graham (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Graham 77%, Harrison 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: McMaster (R) +8

Counties to watch
Richland (Columbia)

2016 Pres: Clinton +33
2018 Gov: Smith (D) +41

Charleston
2016 Pres: Clinton +8
2018 Gov: Smith +15

Horry (Myrtle Beach)
2016 Pres: Trump +38
2018 Gov: McMaster +30

Beaufort
2016 Pres: Trump +14
2018 Gov: McMaster +9

Greenville
2016 Pres: Trump +25
2018 Gov: McMaster +16

 

IOWA
Theresa Greenfield (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Ernst 58%, Greenfield 42%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Gov: Reynolds (R) +3

Counties to watch
Linn (Cedar Rapids)

2016 Pres: Clinton +9
2018 Gov: Hubbell (D) +14

Dubuque
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Gov: Hubbell +1

Polk (Des Moines)
2016: Clinton +12
2018: Hubbell +17

Woodbury (Sioux City)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Gov: Reynolds +13

Scott (Davenport)
2016: Clinton +2
2018: Hubbell +4

 

TEXAS
M.J. Hegar (D) vs. John Cornyn (R-inc.)
538 win probabilities: Cornyn 86%, Hegar 14%
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: Cruz +3

Counties to watch
Harris (Houston)

2016 Pres: Clinton +12
2018 Sen: O’Rourke (D) +17

Tarrant (Fort Worth)
2016 Pres: Trump +9
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +1

Collin (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +17
2018 Sen: Cruz +6

Denton (Dallas suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +20
2018 Sen: Cruz +8

Hays (Austin suburbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +1
2018 Sen: O’Rourke +15

 

ALASKA
Dan Sullivan (R-inc.) vs. Al Gross (D)
538 win probabilities: Sullivan 77%, Gross 23%
2016 Pres: Trump +15
2018 Gov: Dunleavy (R) +7

Counties to watch
Alaska doesn’t have counties, and I wasn’t able to quickly track down good data by borough. Sorry!

 

GEORGIA
(1) Jon Ossoff (D) vs. David Perdue (R-inc.);
(2) Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Kelly Loeffler (R-inc.) vs. Doug Collins (R) vs. Matt Lieberman (D)
538 win probabilities (Special election): Democrats 63%, Republicans 37%
538 win probabilities (Regular): Perdue 57%, Ossoff 43%

2016 Pres: Trump +5
2018 Gov: Kemp (R) +1

Counties to watch
Gwinnett (Atlanta suburbs)

2016 Pres: Clinton +6
2018 Gov: Abrams (D) +14

Cobb (Atlanta suburbs)
2016 Pres: Clinton +2
2018 Gov: Abrams +10

Peach (Fort Valley)
2016 Pres: Trump +3
2018 Gov: Kemp +5

Forsyth (Atlanta exurbs)
2016 Pres: Trump +47
2018 Gov: Kemp +43

Fulton (Atlanta)
2016 Pres: Clinton +42
2018 Gov: Abrams +47

538 gives Dems a 97% chance of keeping the House, so those races have largely been forgotten this year. Here's a brief take on some of the ones I'm watching:

  Reveal hidden contents

(R incumbent) NE-02 (Omaha)
Don Bacon (R-inc.) vs. Kara Eastman (D)

NE-02 has received quite a bit of national attention as a pickup opportunity for Joe Biden since Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by district. An unabashed progressive, Eastman is underperforming Biden but running neck-and-neck with Bacon. The latest NYT/Siena poll showed Biden leading by 7 (a 9-point shift from 2016) but Eastman trailing by 2.

(D) MN-07 (Rural Minnesota)
Collin Peterson (D-inc.) vs. Michelle Fischbach (R)

Considering that MN-07 voted for Trump by 31 points in 2016, it’s amazing that Peterson, a 15-term incumbent who chairs the House agriculture committee, has held on so long. The realities of this deep red district may finally be catching up to him, though, as the only publicly available poll shows Fischbach leading by 10.

(R) NJ-02 (Atlantic City)
Jeff Van Drew (R-inc.) vs. Amy Kennedy (D)

Van Drew made a name for himself by switching parties during Trump’s impeachment. At the time, Van Drew vowed to be a “tremendous defender” of the President, but he’s now adopted a more independent message after trailing in several polls. Biden has an average lead of 2.4 points here, a 7-point shift from 2016.

(R) VA-05 (Rural Virginia)
Bob Good (R) vs. Cameron Webb (D)

Last year it came out that VA-05 incumbent Denver Riggleman officiated a gay wedding. This triggered a primary challenge from Bob Good, who ran significantly to Riggleman’s right. Good won the primary but is now in danger of losing this rural district to Democrats. Biden is trailing in this district by an average of 2.5 points, an 8.6-point leftward shift from 2016, showing his strength with white rural voters relative to Clinton.

(R) IN-05 (Indianapolis suburbs)
Victoria Spartz (R) vs. Christina Hale (D)

IN-05 is another suburban district that’s zoomed leftward over the last four years. Polls show Biden leading here by an average of 10 points, a 22-point shift from 2016. Hale is hoping to ride Biden’s coattails and become the first House Democrat to be elected here since 1990.

(L) MI-03 (Grand Rapids)
Peter Meijer (R) vs. Hillary Scholten (D)

Home of the retiring Justin Amash, this district has also not elected a Democrat to the House since 1990. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016. Scholten is also leading by an average 4.5 points, drawing on the healthcare & jobs message that Democrats used in their 2018 blue wave.

(R) TX-24 (DFW suburbs)
Beth Van Duyne (R) vs. Candace Valenzuela (D)

Republican incumbent Kenny Marchant narrowly won re-election in 2018 and is retiring at the end of this year. This is another suburban pickup opportunity for Democrats – Biden leads by an average of 5 points, an 11-point shift from 2016. A sign of the district’s changing partisan preferences, Van Duyne has at times shied away from the Republican label and is campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions. Valenzuela maintains a solid advantage in fundraising.

(D) NY-22 (Binghamton/Utica)
Anthony Brindisi (D-inc.) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)

There’s been tons of coverage of Democrats’ inroads in suburban communities, but NY-22 is a different story: it’s filled with white working-class voters who switched from Obama to Trump en masse in 2016. Polls show Biden clawing back many of those voters – Siena college has Biden up 1 point, a 16.5-point shift from 2016. Brindisi is hoping to beat his 2018 margin of victory in an environment that’s even more favorable to Democrats.

(D) OK-05 (OKC/Shawnee)
Kendra Horn (D-inc.) vs. Stephanie Bice (R)

Horn surprised many people by narrowly winning this Trump +13 district in 2018. While the district is shifting in Democrats’ favor – Trump leads by an average of 4 points, a 9-point shift – it remains difficult terrain for Horn. Polls indicate a tossup here.

(R) PA-10 (Harrisburg)
Scott Perry (R-inc.) vs. Eugene DePasquale (D)

In early 2018, the PA Supreme Court ruled that the state’s congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. PA-10, originally a Trump +22 district, was re-drawn into a Trump +9 district. Scott Perry won by only 2.5 points in 2018 and appears to be facing even stronger headwinds in 2020. Polls show Biden leading by an average of 4 points, a 13-point shift from 2016.

Other House races to watch: IA-01, IA-02, NY-11, AR-02, CA-25, MO-02, NY-02, TX-21, TX-22, NC-09, CA-21, UT-04

Can't wait to see how all this shakes out. :thumbup:

That’s amazing stuff!

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9 hours ago, caustic said:

Thanks. :thumbup:

Honestly, I got so caught up looking for Obama/Trump(ish) counties in those midwest states that some of the bigger ones got left out.

Gotcha.

The big story in Michigan was lower turnout + lower % in Wayne.

There are 83 counties in Michigan, Democrats typically [carry] 5-7. Wayne totals dwarf everywhere else as it’s more than 3x larger than the next largest county.

2008 - 890K turnout, Obama 74%

2012 - 815K turnout, Obama 73%     

2016 - 777K turnout, HRC 67%

Trump won the state by 11K

Another 39K voters in Detroit, Clinton probably wins by 15K

Edited by BobbyLayne
typos. typos everywhere
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2 minutes ago, Yankee23Fan said:

Ugh...

Love me some @hagmania threads but I've already announced my allegiance for a @Capella election thread. 

Decisions, decisions.....

You can’t tell me you haven’t dreamed of making an albino Oreo with those two.

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Nate Silver:

Final joint probabilities:

72%: DEM trifecta
17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House 
6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House 
3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House
2%: GOP trifecta

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Keep the info coming. Will be adding an index of good posts to the OP.

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The cable networks are showing long lines of people standing in the dark at voting precincts. Amazing.

In Kansas City, the line to vote at Arrowhead Stadium is longer than the line for Chiefs playoff tickets last season.  

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1 hour ago, Yankee23Fan said:

Ugh...

Love me some @hagmania threads but I've already announced my allegiance for a @Capella election thread. 

Decisions, decisions.....

Let’s go with this. I came in at 12:02 to start but Hag beat me! 
 

Maybe Joe would allow us to have a FFA shtick thread tonight.... 

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13 minutes ago, Capella said:

Maybe Joe would allow us to have a FFA shtick thread tonight.... 

Yes, please.

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2 minutes ago, hagmania said:
16 minutes ago, Capella said:

Maybe Joe would allow us to have a FFA shtick thread tonight.... 

Yes, please.

We need to have fun with this.

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9 minutes ago, Ned said:

We need to have fun with this.

I’m years gone by I would have made a joke here - I’m a kinder, gentler AAA

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7 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Millsfield, the other New Hampshire town to vote at midnight, has now reported results as well. Trump 16, Biden 5

Updated NH totals:
Trump 16
Biden 10

NH R Gov is up 25-1 after these votes. That is troublesome for DT. 

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5 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I’m years gone by I would have made a joke here - I’m a kinder, gentler AAA

Not surprised you went soft so quick.

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3 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

When do they start releasing exit polling?

Will be highly misleading this year. Majority of Dems voted early whereas majority of Reps will vote in person today. Should look like a rout for Trump. Kinda useless in this environment.

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29 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Yes, please.

I’ll start one tonight and see if it’s allowed. 

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24 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Will be highly misleading this year. Majority of Dems voted early whereas majority of Reps will vote in person today. Should look like a rout for Trump. Kinda useless in this environment.

Good point - I didn't really think about that.  So basically there's really nothing to pay attention to until 7pm, right?

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1 minute ago, AAABatteries said:

Good point - I didn't really think about that.  So basically there's really nothing to pay attention to until 7pm, right?

prime meme creation time

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Just now, AAABatteries said:

Good point - I didn't really think about that.  So basically there's really nothing to pay attention to until 7pm, right?

Not from official sources, but given that lots of states like Florida have already counted most of their mail-in ballots, there's always the possibility of juicy leaks.  There might be some people in Florida right now that basically know who is going to win the election.

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Having Stacey Abrams organizing down in Georgia makes me feel better.

I listened to a long form interview on Marc Maron podcast with her. Super sharp. Very impressive. 

Nice one coming off the bench. I'd be shocked if she didn't land in the Administration if Biden wins.  

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Drove by several polling places in a middle class/upper middle class suburb of Wichita. Fairly light traffic compared to the advance voting days.  

Edited by Jackstraw
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1 minute ago, cap'n grunge said:

Kayleigh Mcenany: White House believes tonight will be a landslide.

Did she say in which direction?

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1 hour ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Not from official sources, but given that lots of states like Florida have already counted most of their mail-in ballots, there's always the possibility of juicy leaks.  There might be some people in Florida right now that basically know who is going to win the election.

FWIW...we've been getting daily demo updates since counting started.  Things like how many dems vs repubs voted, age of voters etc.  That said, I DO think exit polling isn't going to be all that accurate this year.

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The only way exit polls are useful is if they somehow show Trump's lead as fairly narrow which would be very good news for Biden.

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36 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Biden began election day by visiting son Beau's grave.

I imagine that Joe probably though Beau would be close to running for POTUS now.  

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Just now, Thunderlips said:

I imagine that Joe probably though Beau would be close to running for POTUS now.  

Joe also just visited his childhood home where he lived until he was four. A little nostalgic look back to begin the day.

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