“Rookie Fever”s Red-Headed Stepchild: “Early Anointing”. (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Seems like every year we see the draft, and get preconceived notions of which veterans will be pushed aside for the shiny new toy that the teams draft.

Guys like Corrum & Trey Benson come to mind. ADP reflected a “changing of the guard” mentality”, with hype building to the point that Corrum went a couple picks before Williams in one of my redraft leagues.

Now Williams is being looked at by the Rams for a contract extension & Corrum could struggle to get touches. Meanwhile Conner is trending in a surprising direction of both health and production, improving his YPC every year for the last couple.

I still believe Benson has a bright future, but barring injury it won’t be 2025.

Those are just a couple of examples of a bigger picture trend I’ve noticed—- we love us some rookies, and we go nuts over them every year post-NFL draft. The natural follow-up to that seems to be the anointing of the new guard, at the expense of incumbent veterans. It’s always great when we’re right, but the hit rate always seems to be lower than expected. It’s a lesson we never seem to learn, and often miss in our evaluations.

Who of this year’s rookie crop do you see as being anointed too quickly, but may end up as a roster clogger for 2025?

I’ll go first: I love everything I’ve seen/read about Arroyo. Fant isn’t exactly Kelce when it comes to incumbent talent, but he is a good athlete, a decent blocker, and can be a solid target. Arroyo seems like a very raw talent who might need a year or two of seasoning. Add in the fact that TEs are often slower to develop at the pro level, it seems like the buzz over Arroyo is a little too buzzy. I’m not saying Fant will be a pro-bowl TE this year, nor am I saying folks shouldn’t draft Arroyo in dynasty. Just feels a stitch early to send Fant out to pasture.

Another player that comes to mind is James. Guerendo looked great last year, and I’m not convinced James will push him down to RB3, or become the starter if CMC misses time. Shanny loved seeing Guerendo slide instead of scoring on not one but 2 game-sealing runs, and that sort of smarts & his much better burst make him a much more likely candidate to hold onto the RB2 job IMO, despite many seemingly preferring James as the SF lottery ticket.

Anoint to disappoint - who ya got?

 

[efactor]

I think expectations for Hampton in 2025 are a little high. I hear a lot of talk that he will take over the backfield by midseason. Wouldn’t count on it. Najee isn’t going away this year IMO. I think he will surprise now that he is playing in a real NFL offense where defenses can’t stack the front.

Barring injury, I see a 50/50 type split this year. Have one copy of each so will be watching closely.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think expectations for Hampton in 2025 are a little high. I hear a lot of talk that he will take over the backfield by midseason. Wouldn’t count on it. Najee isn’t going away this year IMO. I think he will surprise now that he is playing in a real NFL offense where defenses can’t stack the front.

Barring injury, I see a 50/50 type split this year. Have one copy of each so will be watching closely.

I agree with this one. Najee’s greatest asset is durability, which bodes ill for a Hampton take-over.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

This ties into one of my pet peeves with the FF community - "upside".

You know what "upside" is? It means he hasn't done anything and it's usually term used by shareholders on their knees every night hoping Keaton Mitchell turns into Marshall Faulk.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

This ties into one of my pet peeves with the FF community - "upside".

You know what "upside" is? It means he hasn't done anything and it's usually term used by shareholders on their knees every night hoping Keaton Mitchell turns into Marshall Faulk.

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

 

[TheWinz]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

 

[JohnnyU]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

You might be right about Harris to some degree in 2025, but I wish I had a share of Hampton. I think Harris is a fading dynasty asset. He was a volume back who was never injured, nothing more.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

 

[FarFromHome]

Personally for this upcoming season I only see 3 of the rookie rbs being decent fantasy assets for upcoming season..

Jeanty is gonna be near top 10 rb
Henderson gonna surprise be a rb2
Hampton gonna squeek in as an rb3

The rest, for me, all fit your criteria for your shiny new toy syndrome.

Judkins. Browns might average 8 pts a game

Johnson. Has some tools. I think the Steelers pair Warren more with Rodgers then the rookie. Call it a
hunch.

Harvey is interesting to me. Checks a lot of boxes. I just have no idea how they are gonna use him. Seems like a let down to me.

 

[jm192]

I always try to target the sophomores that underperformed. I know someone is going to say "No one is already giving up on their 1st round pick from a year ago."
I'm not advocating to offer up your 4th for their 1st from last year. But people usually soften on the price tag after a disappointing year.

Benson, Lloyd, Pearsall are all great undervalued guys for dynasty.

 

[menobrown]

Rookie RB's used to be awesome redraft value and now they've been almost been pushed to high.

I expect Hampton to be the teams 1A but disappoint for fantasy because 1B(Najee) is always available and always eating up volume.

I don't think Henderson will lead his team in touches and will also disappoint for fantasy.

But I still like both of their long term outlooks so not sure that what this thread is about?

My guess neither Tuten or Skateboo take over starting roles now OR will come out of the season looking like their teams future top RB. That may be more of what this thread is about, again not sure.

In general not sure if we are discussing most likely disappointing rookies for THIS year or rookies right now that a lot of people believe will be earning bigger roles in 2026 and going forward that won't due to their play or that of vets in front of them? In this case the two H's fall into the first category for me, Tuten and Skateboo the later.

 

[jm192]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

 

[TheWinz]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

Harris may simply be a volume guy who doesn't get hurt, but too many people are sleeping on him. The only world in which Hampton hits 300 touches is a Harris injury. And since he hasn't missed a game in 4 years, I'm not betting on that. And as far as draft capital is concerned, they were overall picks 22 & 24. Now, I'm not putting down Hampton, and I hope he turns into a stud. But Harris is simply too good for Hampton to relegate him to a CoP RB. This is a timeshare, at least for 2025. Actually, as a Chargers fan, I am hoping for both to finish as top 24 RB's. FBG currently has Harris at RB39, which would make him a RB4. I am confident he will finish as a RB3, minimum.

 

[JohnnyU]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

 

[bluemanfoo]

Personally for this upcoming season I only see 3 of the rookie rbs being decent fantasy assets.

Jeanty is gonna be near top 10 rb
Henderson gonna surprise be a rb2
Hampton gonna squeek in as an rb3

The rest, for me, all fit your criteria for your shiny new toy syndrome.

Judkins. Browns might average 8 pts a game

Johnson. Has some tools. I think the Steelers pair Warren more with Rodgers then the rookie. Call it a
hunch.

Harvey is interesting to me. Checks a lot of boxes. I just have no idea how they are gonna use him. Seems like a let down to me.

I happen to love "shiny new toys." So at current cost, Harvey is the rookie I want most. He was clearly drafted to fill the "joker" role in Payton's offense. In the past, that role (Kamara, Sproles) has thrived in Sean Payton's offense, even while in a committee. Harvey has a lot to learn and has to earn the job, but if/when he's ready, he'll play. (See rookie Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Marques Colston.)

 

[menobrown]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

Harris may simply be a volume guy who doesn't get hurt, but too many people are sleeping on him. The only world in which Hampton hits 300 touches is a Harris injury. And since he hasn't missed a game in 4 years, I'm not betting on that. And as far as draft capital is concerned, they were overall picks 22 & 24. Now, I'm not putting down Hampton, and I hope he turns into a stud. But Harris is simply too good for Hampton to relegate him to a CoP RB. This is a timeshare, at least for 2025. Actually, as a Chargers fan, I am hoping for both to finish as top 24 RB's. FBG currently has Harris at RB39, which would make him a RB4. I am confident he will finish as a RB3, minimum.

I'm not claiming Hampton will run away with the backfield. But I wouldn't say the only way Hampton gets that backfield is injury. He could be too good not to play a lot or Harris could be cooked too.

I would agree Harris is likely to be a Rb3. My point all along is RB3's do not win fantasy leagues. His profile is not one that has RB1 upside and he's never a guy you're excited to put in your starting lineup if your team is good.

 

[JohnnyU]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Well, I don’t see him as anyone to start in fantasy. As a Colts fan I don’t think this offense can support 3 pass catchers consistently and I believe Warren and Downs are the only two that will matter for fantasy. Sure, there will be outliers some weeks with Pittman or Pierce, but not enough to trust.

 

[jm192]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Can you elaborate?

Pittman obviously had a down year, but played through a broken back. He's only 27, 28 at some point this season. I think the biggest knock on any of the Indy pass catchers is the QB situation. I have actually thought Pittman was an amazing value this off-season.

I don't even necessarily mean to say "fade" Warren. His cost for the upside is fine. But if you're asking me to look into my crystal ball and who didn't do much as a rookie: He seems like a candidate. I certainly believe in the talent. He's someone I've targeted and will continue to target. Especially if he has a quiet rookie season.

 

[jm192]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Agree with this.

 

[menobrown]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Well, I don’t see him as anyone to start in fantasy. As a Colts fan I don’t think this offense can support 3 pass catchers consistently and I believe Warren and Downs are the only two that will matter for fantasy. Sure, there will be outliers some weeks, but not enough to trust.

This line of thinking is exactly what this thread is about. As in somewhat going counter to it.

For sure not agreeing with your perceived pecking order of targets. Believe Pittman will lead the team in that regard.

 

[jm192]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Well, I don’t see him as anyone to start in fantasy. As a Colts fan I don’t think this offense can support 3 pass catchers consistently and I believe Warren and Downs are the only two that will matter for fantasy. Sure, there will be outliers some weeks, but not enough to trust.

I agree the offense can't support 3 pass catchers.

One guy has 3 straight years with 88+ catches. Pittman is 27 going on 28. It's not like he fell off due to age/declining abilty.

One guy is an unproven rookie TE. A position that notoriously starts slow. Both guys have the same QB issues/concerns.

 

[JohnnyU]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Well, I don’t see him as anyone to start in fantasy. As a Colts fan I don’t think this offense can support 3 pass catchers consistently and I believe Warren and Downs are the only two that will matter for fantasy. Sure, there will be outliers some weeks, but not enough to trust.

I agree the offense can't support 3 pass catchers.

One guy has 3 straight years with 88+ catches. Pittman is 27 going on 28. It's not like he fell off due to age/declining abilty.

One guy is an unproven rookie TE. A position that notoriously starts slow. Both guys have the same QB issues/concerns.

I certainly won’t argue about it, but as a Colts fan, barring injuries, I truly believe that Downs and Warren, will lead the team in receiving. Disclaimer I don’t have any of Downs, Warren, or Pittman in any league. I have Pierce and Mitchell in one league. Im just speaking as a fan of the team.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

I’m with you here. I actually think Najee might get closer to 300 touches while Hampton carves out a role. Harbaugh went out and grabbed Najee early in FA - he’s very much a Harbaugh type back. He loves him some grinders.

Barring injury I feel like Najee will be a bargain for FF drafters due to the hype of Hampton. He’s almost the poster boy for this topic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

This type of statement is precisely what I had in mind when starting this topic. LAC made Najee a priority in FA, then drafted Hampton.

He’s a volume back who rarely gets injured, grinding out 3 yards and a cloud of dust consistently - perfect guy for a run-heavy PA pass offense. They didn’t prioritize getting Najee so he could ride the bench, IMO.

 

[menobrown]

To the original question, who underperforms this year?

I haven't seen anyone mention them, and I assume it's in part because their re-draft value isn't that high. But both 1st round Tight ends.

First, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. Tight ends typically start slow. We talk about it every year. Bowers smashed. But, Bowers is a legitimate generational talent.

Loveland: Had AC Joint reconstructive surgery. The latest update I've seen, Ben Johnson said they're hoping he's able to practice at some point during training camp. That may lead to an even slower start. Cole Kmet is a competent TE that has put up good fantasy numbers with Justin Fields. And then even if you're able to play to a level where you're on the field for the majority of plays: you've got DJ Moore an Rome Odunze in front of you for targets.

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues. You're kind of needing some things to go right, but he's FREE. No one is talking about Kmet right now. And while it's easy to say "They didn't spend a 1st on Loveland to use Kmet," Look at the Bills and Dalton Kincaid.

Warren: Indy has a ton of mouths to feed. Pittman and Downs should see most of the volume. Pierce is outstanding downfield. Taylor is still a very good running back. Who is the QB? I'd bank on Daniel Jones. And while this is the most talent Jones will have ever had around him: Is he going to be able to support 3 or 4 fantasy relevant pass catchers--1 of which is a rookie TE?

Fade Pittman, not Warren.

Pittman was already faded way too much IMO and is one of the better WR values going.

Well, I don’t see him as anyone to start in fantasy. As a Colts fan I don’t think this offense can support 3 pass catchers consistently and I believe Warren and Downs are the only two that will matter for fantasy. Sure, there will be outliers some weeks, but not enough to trust.

I agree the offense can't support 3 pass catchers.

One guy has 3 straight years with 88+ catches. Pittman is 27 going on 28. It's not like he fell off due to age/declining abilty.

One guy is an unproven rookie TE. A position that notoriously starts slow. Both guys have the same QB issues/concerns.

And Downs, whose talent I love, almost never plays if 3 or more WR's are not on the field. Think I heard a few days ago he's run 16 routes with 2 or less WR's on the field his entire career, which is about half a route a game fwiw.

Also one thing I'd add I had looked up Goedert's usage the two years under Stiechen and his efficiency was amazing but his targets worked out to only 91 over a 17 game season. It was the easily the most efficient two seasons of Goedert's career but slightly less per game targets then the two seasons previous or the two seasons after.

It's entirely possibly no one puts any of them in your lineup with strong confidence and I'd move that to possible to likely if/when Richardson is starting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think Kmet could be a really sneaky play in deeper and TE Premium leagues

This for sure. I roster Kmet in 1 TEP league & my league-mates seem to agree with you as I’ve received 7 offers (of 16 teams) - all pretty low, mostly during the draft. 3rd round pick-ish.

For that price I’d rather hold and see how things shake out. Kmet has certainly shown flashes, and as you say, TE tend to start slow & take time to develop.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He was clearly drafted to fill the "joker" role in Payton's offense.

I thought so too, then they went out and signed Evan Engram, and Payton said he added him to fill that Joker role. So…

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

This type of statement is precisely what I had in mind when starting this topic. LAC made Najee a priority in FA, then drafted Hampton.

He’s a volume back who rarely gets injured, grinding out 3 yards and a cloud of dust consistently - perfect guy for a run-heavy PA pass offense. They didn’t prioritize getting Najee so he could ride the bench, IMO.

They paid him $5M. The guaranteed money is between Justice Hill and Antonio Gibson. Even Devin Singletary makes more per year. And drafted a Round 1 RB into that room. Teams don't really take Rd1 RB to be clear backups either. Which one do you think has more talent right now?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

This type of statement is precisely what I had in mind when starting this topic. LAC made Najee a priority in FA, then drafted Hampton.

He’s a volume back who rarely gets injured, grinding out 3 yards and a cloud of dust consistently - perfect guy for a run-heavy PA pass offense. They didn’t prioritize getting Najee so he could ride the bench, IMO.

They paid him $5M. The guaranteed money is between Justice Hill and Antonio Gibson. Even Devin Singletary makes more per year. And drafted a Round 1 RB into that room. Teams don't really take Rd1 RB to be clear backups either. Which one do you think has more talent right now?

I’m not arguing any of that. But they didn’t bring in Najee to ride the bench.

If it’s a 50-50 split will you be shocked? We don’t even know if Hampton can pass protect in the NFL.

Anointing rookies while disregarding incumbents is exactly what this topic is about.

 

[bluemanfoo]

He was clearly drafted to fill the "joker" role in Payton's offense.

I thought so too, then they went out and signed Evan Engram, and Payton said he added him to fill that Joker role. So…

I was looking at Engram too, but cooled on him. He doesn't have a big frame like Jimmy Graham did, and he seemingly is on the decline. Plus, if he was good enough to really fill that joker role, he should have "flashed" a bit more in the past.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

This type of statement is precisely what I had in mind when starting this topic. LAC made Najee a priority in FA, then drafted Hampton.

He’s a volume back who rarely gets injured, grinding out 3 yards and a cloud of dust consistently - perfect guy for a run-heavy PA pass offense. They didn’t prioritize getting Najee so he could ride the bench, IMO.

They paid him $5M. The guaranteed money is between Justice Hill and Antonio Gibson. Even Devin Singletary makes more per year. And drafted a Round 1 RB into that room. Teams don't really take Rd1 RB to be clear backups either. Which one do you think has more talent right now?

I’m not arguing any of that. But they didn’t bring in Najee to ride the bench.

If it’s a 50-50 split will you be shocked? We don’t even know if Hampton can pass protect in the NFL.

Anointing rookies while disregarding incumbents is exactly what this topic is about.

No wont be shocked. I stated up above that Hampton was the one that has league winning upside where Harris doesn’t. In other words if one of them takes the job Harris is still just a guy but if it’s Hampton he brings massive upside. I hope the narrative is strong for Harris and lowers Hampton’s adp!

 

[Soulfly3]

What that caca o-line, I'm already annointing Jaylin Noel as the PPR monster of the Texans WR crew.
Quick dumps and slants to the man, all day. He's gonna be Dell v2.0 - The Durable Version.

 

[TheWinz]

No wont be shocked. I stated up above that Hampton was the one that has league winning upside where Harris doesn’t. In other words if one of them takes the job Harris is still just a guy but if it’s Hampton he brings massive upside. I hope the narrative is strong for Harris and lowers Hampton’s adp!

Najee was a RB1 in both 2021 and 2022, and a RB2 in both 2023 and 2024. Sure, he has a lifetime 3.9 YPC which sucks, but he also has averaged 319 touches a year. If Hampton got injured, why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Call it whatever you want but in the above example, Hampton has a chance to be a league winner and I'm really sure Najee Harris won't be a starter on anyone's championship team. Upside matters in fantasy football.

Disagree. There is no reason Najee can't have 200 touches while Hampton is still getting his. If you can start a total of 3 RB's, which nearly every league can, do you know how many RB's with 200 touches finished outside the top 36? None, nada. Based on FBG current draft rankings, I will take Najee at 9.9 before I take Omarion at 6.1. I will be very happy if I can land Najee as my RB3.

To each his own. With 200 touches, you're looking at about 800-850 yards and maybe 6 TD, which is probably his upside. Those kinds of players aren't league winners. Good bye week fill in for sure.

The point I was making was if one of those guys is going to grab control of the backfield and hit 300 touches, it's highly likely to be Hampton and unlikely to be Harris. Add in the younger legs and first round draft capital and that is the archetype of a player I want on my roster because the chances he exceeds expectations are good.

This type of statement is precisely what I had in mind when starting this topic. LAC made Najee a priority in FA, then drafted Hampton.

He’s a volume back who rarely gets injured, grinding out 3 yards and a cloud of dust consistently - perfect guy for a run-heavy PA pass offense. They didn’t prioritize getting Najee so he could ride the bench, IMO.

They paid him $5M. The guaranteed money is between Justice Hill and Antonio Gibson. Even Devin Singletary makes more per year. And drafted a Round 1 RB into that room. Teams don't really take Rd1 RB to be clear backups either. Which one do you think has more talent right now?

I’m not arguing any of that. But they didn’t bring in Najee to ride the bench.

If it’s a 50-50 split will you be shocked? We don’t even know if Hampton can pass protect in the NFL.

Anointing rookies while disregarding incumbents is exactly what this topic is about.

No wont be shocked. I stated up above that Hampton was the one that has league winning upside where Harris doesn’t. In other words if one of them takes the job Harris is still just a guy but if it’s Hampton he brings massive upside. I hope the narrative is strong for Harris and lowers Hampton’s adp!

It might be the case, but that’s extremely unlikely to happen. Literally the premise of this topic. Everyone is leaving Najee for dead because the Chargers drafted Hampton. All the things in Hampton’s favor are driving that narrative. And hey, a lot of it is logical, but teams aren’t always straightforward or logical in how they use their players.

Like him or hate him, Najee Harris is a smart, capable workhorse back who has great ball security and is rarely in the blue tent.

And coaches have trust issues. Do we know if Hampton is going to protect Herbert? Do we know if Hampton is going to protect the rock? He might be fine at both but we just don’t know.

If we’re being critical evaluators, we have to at least acknowledge the possibility that Hampton is in a committee with Harris. To what % we just don’t yet know.

But the greater community has left Harris for dead and has anointed Hampton. Reading the Reddit sleeper & dynasty forums, people can’t give away Najee in a deal, and Hampton’s purchase price is climbing to heights that imply a 350+ touch season.

IMO that’s the very definition of “anoint to disappoint”.

That doesn’t mean Hampton doesn’t have great dynasty value, or that he doesn’t have the terrific upside you keep bringing up - those are absolutely valid gambles for owners to take in redraft & even more so in dynasty.

But for the redrafters if Hampton is a 3rd round pick & Najee a 6th, that’s a recipe for disappointment if it’s a 50-50 committee.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What that caca o-line, I'm already annointing Jaylin Noel as the PPR monster of the Texans WR crew.
Quick dumps and slants to the man, all day. He's gonna be Dell v2.0 - The Durable Version.

That’s all fine and dandy, but completely irrelevant to this topic.

lol

 

[Soulfly3]

What that caca o-line, I'm already annointing Jaylin Noel as the PPR monster of the Texans WR crew.
Quick dumps and slants to the man, all day. He's gonna be Dell v2.0 - The Durable Version.

That’s all fine and dandy, but completely irrelevant to this topic.

lol

meh, Dell is in year 3, and his role is basically null and void now. better?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

No wont be shocked. I stated up above that Hampton was the one that has league winning upside where Harris doesn’t. In other words if one of them takes the job Harris is still just a guy but if it’s Hampton he brings massive upside. I hope the narrative is strong for Harris and lowers Hampton’s adp!

Najee was a RB1 in both 2021 and 2022, and a RB2 in both 2023 and 2024. Sure, he has a lifetime 3.9 YPC which sucks, but he also has averaged 319 touches a year. If Hampton got injured, why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

Maybe we have different definitions of league winners?

Henderson or Rhamondre? Warren or Kaleb?

 

[Lansdowne]

What that caca o-line, I'm already annointing Jaylin Noel as the PPR monster of the Texans WR crew.
Quick dumps and slants to the man, all day. He's gonna be Dell v2.0 - The Durable Version.

That’s all fine and dandy, but completely irrelevant to this topic.

lol

Not necessarily: At least for this season, the rookie Jaylin Noel is considered the direct backup to the veteran Christian Kirk, the current favorite for the starting slot role. Would that not be another example of early anointing?

 

[FarFromHome]

I am in full research mode on Hampton. I'm invested in this kid. I'm doing my due diligence on him. The problem is altbough this thread has had some damn great input it hasn't moved the needle for me. Just a tough RB room to gage. Harris is good. Hampton is gonna be great, but as we get closer to season, my gut says for one year Harris pushes a 50/50. I'm not a patient person. Ha ha

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

 

[JohnnyU]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

Bolded: Happens all the time and is ignored......until it isn't.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

Bolded: Happens all the time and is ignored......until it isn't.

I believe you but ignore the victory laps and the whining. These discussions and debates are great to sort out various situations. We all will win some and lose some in the end.

 

[JohnnyU]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

Bolded: Happens all the time and is ignored......until it isn't.

I believe you but ignore the victory laps and the whining. These discussions and debates are great to sort out various situations. We all will win some and lose some in the end.

Fantasy players in general have no patience and expect instant gratification.

 

[darksideofoz]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

to add onto this, too many fantasy players only consider what they see on game day. which I can understand to a point, but they aren't considering everything. there is a whole lot more that goes into football than the ebb and flow on gameday. how the rookies practice and prepare is a huge part of their opportunities or volume of the opportunities.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not necessarily: At least for this season, the rookie Jaylin Noel is considered the direct backup to the veteran Christian Kirk, the current favorite for the starting slot role. Would that not be another example of early anointing?

The topic is more about people being anointed who *won’t* actually take over.

If Soulfly said Noel has been anointed by the FF community to push aside Kirk (which isn’t the case to my knowledge) but he didn’t think that would actually happen, then he’d be on topic.

Unless it’s Opposite Day. Hang on, lemme check my calendar.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good thread with a lot of solid points. But the "trust issue" is a real thing. I can already picture the game threads full of the rookie owners getting angry with the coaches for not playing their guy over the vet when stats show the rookie with a better ypc and yards after contact. But if he put the ball on the ground or got his QB blown up missing a block he's probably going to spend time rotting on the bench. This is something owners have to realize is a possibility before investing a high pick, in redraft especially. Coaches love their vets.

100%

 

[Ilov80s]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

 

[JohnnyU]

why wouldn't Harris have league winning upside? He has PROVEN it before.

100% this.

The only LAC RB who’s proven he can play at a high level in the NFL is the one everyone is fading.

Hampton is truly the poster child for this topic.

The big thing in Hampton's favor is history. 1st round running backs almost always get a lot of touches. That is no guarantee for Hampton but a factor worth considering.

By this time next year Harris will just be a memory.