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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
otb_lifer
Footballguy
coin flip, imo ... not as evident as Charge It on White Abby.
Zandy will be more at ease closer up in the Derby than Mo D, which gives him first and best crack at any top dogs faltering.
as i said, only 5 i put in MUST USE ON ALL TIX are Epi/Tab/Mess/Zandy/Mo.
i have a very heavy lean to Charge It under them.
kinda warming to Zozos and Early Voting, the latter of who i think can carry the front speed the furthest of the bigger priced choices.
-fish-
Footballguy
I had money on Zozos against Epicenter and have tried to talk myself into him, but I kinda think that performance is his best effort.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
that's fair ... and i can see him being a huge toss for many.
but i like the speed increments (82 to 90 to 94), and i feel he's sitting on his best yet ... or, folks can take your opinion, and feel he's peaked.
both make sense, if that makes sense.
very light foundation (no 2 yr old races), and i certainly don't see a win path in Churchill ... but, much like Early Voting, i gotta consider early speed on my underneaths that has a better chance of hanging on once the likes of Simplification get inhaled.
Cox had success with Mandaloun last year, so he know the drill ... now, Mandy was much more seasoned, and presented great value last year due to his absolute ####fest in the La. Derby (6th, with his lowest ever speed fig).
it's a reach, sure - but i gotta start looking at all possibilities, and if he moves forward as i expect, he may hang on for a nice bottom.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Getting back to the Mike Welsch comment, one reason I had Mandaloun in there last year (I had the exacta, tri and super if Medina is outta there) was that Welsch said he was tearing up and loving CD. That's why I likened him to Bluegrass Cat, who ran a dud in the Florida Derby to come back and run 2nd in the Derby. It doesn't happen often. 95% of the time a lousy or fading final prep spells doom if they do go to the Derby. So I'm not going to reach. But I'll watch the workout reports.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
that Louisiana Derby 2021 was the deepest prep in memory - Mandy/HRC/(my boy) O Besos/(recently deceased) Midnight Bourbon - 1,2,4,5 respectively, and now officially.
we spoke of that '06 debacle plenty of times over the years - i left BGCat off my tri and super, which would've paid double, as Lawyer Ron/Jazil dead heated for 4th (had 'em both).
as for 2022 works thus far ... whipping boy White Abarrio's first Churchill work was a 4f 47.4
Welsch is an intregal piece of the puzzle, i should've paid much more attention to you and him and Mandy last May.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
great stuff in here boys
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
RIP fiery Colt.that Louisiana Derby 2021 was the deepest prep in memory - Mandy/HRC/(my boy) O Besos/(recently deceased) Midnight Bourbon - 1,2,4,5 respectively, and now officially.
we spoke of that '06 debacle plenty of times over the years - i left BGCat off my tri and super, which would've paid double, as Lawyer Ron/Jazil dead heated for 4th (had 'em both).
as for 2022 works thus far ... whipping boy White Abarrio's first Churchill work was a 4f 47.4
Welsch is an intregal piece of the puzzle, i should've paid much more attention to you and him and Mandy last May.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
we'll always have that wire to wire special in the Lecomte to remember - he looked like the best of that deep colony heading into the Risen Star.
he never won another race, but did pull a 2nd in the Preakness, Travers, Penn Derby, La. Stakes ... honest cat with an unfortunate case of "seconditis" - man, i was so convinced he'd split the Baffert duo of Medina Spirit & Cincert Tour in the Preak ... he buried CT, but couldn't close MS.
he was banging around Saudi/Dubai this year ... 3rd in Saudi Cup, 5th in Dubai World Cup, which was just 3 1/2 weeks ago.
16 lifetime starts: 2/6/5 ... so he boarded in 80% of his races - solid.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
Welsch has written 3 articles for the DRF about White Abarrio...none about anyone else.that Louisiana Derby 2021 was the deepest prep in memory - Mandy/HRC/(my boy) O Besos/(recently deceased) Midnight Bourbon - 1,2,4,5 respectively, and now officially.
we spoke of that '06 debacle plenty of times over the years - i left BGCat off my tri and super, which would've paid double, as Lawyer Ron/Jazil dead heated for 4th (had 'em both).
as for 2022 works thus far ... whipping boy White Abarrio's first Churchill work was a 4f 47.4
Welsch is an intregal piece of the puzzle, i should've paid much more attention to you and him and Mandy last May.
-fish-
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
$3 million in earnings for a horse that won 2 races. Pretty amazing career. 2021 Derby carried a curse, and not just for Baffert.we'll always have that wire to wire special in the Lecomte to remember - he looked like the best of that deep colony heading into the Risen Star.
he never won another race, but did pull a 2nd in the Preakness, Travers, Penn Derby, La. Stakes ... honest cat with an unfortunate case of "seconditis" - man, i was so convinced he'd split the Baffert duo of Medina Spirit & Cincert Tour in the Preak ... he buried CT, but couldn't close MS.
he was banging around Saudi/Dubai this year ... 3rd in Saudi Cup, 5th in Dubai World Cup, which was just 3 1/2 weeks ago.
16 lifetime starts: 2/6/5 ... so he boarded in 80% of his races - solid.
-fish-
Footballguy
Early Voting seems like he's way better suited for Pimlico. No reason to run him in the Derby if he's just going to be a rabbit.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
OMG please no!
BTW, am I wrong? No. Literally, the top two favorites are being touted here, just sayin.
I don't disagree either, I'll be on TAIBA as well, SoCal runs this joint.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
ok ... so go bet a fave at Fonner Park, you'll get the same payout - if Taiba goes off 2-1 at Churchill, he'll pay $6.20, same payout as a bullring like Fonner or Mountaineer.
straight win bet in a 20 horse field is a fool's errand - but have at it.
the money is in the exotics, as it's the hugest pool of the year - it's worth the spread underneath for the possibilities ... that's the point of my thread each year.
horses like Tab/Epi need to be on those tix as savers, but i sure as #### don't plunk WIN wagers on Derby day.
-fish-
Footballguy
This thread, for years, has been horseplayers discussing horseracing, and some of us do this seriously. Your comment was useless trash. Given your performance in baseball threads, I'm pretty sure you have nothing meaningful to add. Feel free to get tips in here on how to make money on exotics, but unless you have something to offer, don't clutter up this thread with garbage. Thanks.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Messier?
he's been discussed aplenty past couple pages ... i'm on him as the best value up top, think he will be slept on by many - he'll take alotta sharp money, imo.
chet
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i think Lukas made a major tactical error by slotting Ethereal Road in the BG ... too many heavy hitters - he just should've taken the 20 he would've bagged in the Lex to punch it to Churchill ... ergo, ER was on 6 days rest, really had nothing left but a charge for 4th last week ... i think a fresh ER would've taken Tawny down, sending him back to the Tapeta circuit.
easy toss.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Travis Stone Odds as of 4/21
pure spec fodder, but why the hell not ...
Epi 3-1
Zandy/Tab 9-2
Mess/Mo D 8-1
White Abby 12-1
Charge It/Early Voting 15-1
Tiz/Smile/Zoz/Cyb 20-1
Crown/Simp/PoM/Tawny 30-1
all the rest (Barber Road, Un Ojo, Ethereal Road, Summer is Tomorrow, In Due Time, Happy Jack) at 50-1.
interesting to see the respect given to two i have been eyeing, Charge It & Early Voting - each need totally different pace scenarios to unfold to have any kinda shot, and, as i said earlier, can see Brown opting for Pat Day mile with EV.
still think Battaglia sets it as Epi 5/2, Tab 3/1 as the two ml favorites, pending decent draws.
pure spec fodder, but why the hell not ...
Epi 3-1
Zandy/Tab 9-2
Mess/Mo D 8-1
White Abby 12-1
Charge It/Early Voting 15-1
Tiz/Smile/Zoz/Cyb 20-1
Crown/Simp/PoM/Tawny 30-1
all the rest (Barber Road, Un Ojo, Ethereal Road, Summer is Tomorrow, In Due Time, Happy Jack) at 50-1.
interesting to see the respect given to two i have been eyeing, Charge It & Early Voting - each need totally different pace scenarios to unfold to have any kinda shot, and, as i said earlier, can see Brown opting for Pat Day mile with EV.
still think Battaglia sets it as Epi 5/2, Tab 3/1 as the two ml favorites, pending decent draws.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
-fish- said:
You don't run this board, do you?
My comment was "useless trash"? My comment was nothing but factual, prove otherwise. This is a conversation, you don't get to dictate how it goes.
Try to tone down the bully thing, tough guy, not a good look at your age. On a message board, no less.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i like the 5 & 6 to make some mischief ... been 8 months since Mal won, 6 since she's run.
i will try to beat.
PS - race i bet came in 8, 5, 9, 12
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
btw, not like Mal has been running and losing, she just been on ice since the BC.
she should win this by 10 lengths, but i'll give the contrarian view a shot.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
golden speed rail, weak fave hung out in the 7 hole ... and the 6 takes it, picking up the pieces.
NOW we're gonna close from outside?
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Oaklawn 7
#9 Goblin
only first time starter in a field of meh
w/p/s for action
#9 Goblin
only first time starter in a field of meh
w/p/s for action
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Missed the break
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Missed the break
that #8 was tough, tho ...
and Mal hung on ... i knew the 6 was gonna be pacesetter, ut they hustled her way too hard.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Keeneland 10
2,7,12 ex box
2,7,12 ex box
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
PhillipPhoto
Footballguy
Hey! Fantasy football forum threads are serious business!!!! Some of them have been doing it for years in a thread that was started a month ago!!!!
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Current odds per horseracingnation.com:
Epicenter: 4-1
Zandon: 5-1
Taiba: 6-1
Messier: 10-1
Mo Donegal: 10-1
Smile Happy: 15-1
White Abarrio: 15-1
Charge It: 20-1
Cyberknife: 20-1
Early Voting: 20-1
Simplification: 20-1
Tiz the Bomb: 20-1
Zozos: 20-1
Epicenter: 4-1
Zandon: 5-1
Taiba: 6-1
Messier: 10-1
Mo Donegal: 10-1
Smile Happy: 15-1
White Abarrio: 15-1
Charge It: 20-1
Cyberknife: 20-1
Early Voting: 20-1
Simplification: 20-1
Tiz the Bomb: 20-1
Zozos: 20-1
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
Current odds per horseracingnation.com:
Epicenter: 4-1 legit
Zandon: 5-1 will take a ton of Kentucky money, gonna be the underlay
Taiba: 6-1 can't see anything over 3-1 come post time - the public will never let him stay this high.
Messier: 10-1 the. overlay.
Mo Donegal: 10-1 must use on all tix
Smile Happy: 15-1 not feeling this at all
White Abarrio: 15-1 may end up a bigger underlay than Zandy - toss
Charge It: 20-1 can you say "wiseguy horse"?
Cyberknife: 20-1 Oaklawn was down this year, jury still out for me
Early Voting: 20-1 Preakness or Pat Day Mile loom
Simplification: 20-1 easiest toss in the field
Tiz the Bomb: 20-1 likely to include underneath
Zozos: 20-1 will be on all my tix
otb_lifer
Footballguy
paging @Judge Smails
Kentucky Derby contender CYBERKNIFE (Gun Runner) looked great working first thing this AM, with
@flothejock up for trainer @bradcoxracing 4/23/22
@DRFWelsch
: Cyberknife very impressive 3/4 from 5/8 100.09 112.38 with huge gallop out 7/8 114.39 up a mile 138.84. 4/23/22
- checking back on this cat ... first two career starts (sprints 6 & 6.5f) were at Churchill - went off as favorite in debut, finished 1st, but DQ for bump.
second shot saw him overwhelming fave ... lugged out, uninspiring 2nd.
ship to FG, breaks his maiden in a route (1 1/16th) as favorite.
then pops a very flat & MEH 6th in a fakarkte Risen Star (Epi's only 3 yr old loss)
- so they wheel him out a month later for an AOC, which he handles, setting him up for the ship to a much weaker Oaklawn circuit (Un ####in' Ojo?!??!) for the Arky.
and here we are.
Kentucky Derby contender CYBERKNIFE (Gun Runner) looked great working first thing this AM, with
@flothejock up for trainer @bradcoxracing 4/23/22
@DRFWelsch
: Cyberknife very impressive 3/4 from 5/8 100.09 112.38 with huge gallop out 7/8 114.39 up a mile 138.84. 4/23/22
- checking back on this cat ... first two career starts (sprints 6 & 6.5f) were at Churchill - went off as favorite in debut, finished 1st, but DQ for bump.
second shot saw him overwhelming fave ... lugged out, uninspiring 2nd.
ship to FG, breaks his maiden in a route (1 1/16th) as favorite.
then pops a very flat & MEH 6th in a fakarkte Risen Star (Epi's only 3 yr old loss)
- so they wheel him out a month later for an AOC, which he handles, setting him up for the ship to a much weaker Oaklawn circuit (Un ####in' Ojo?!??!) for the Arky.
and here we are.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Yep - he also said Zandon worked great at Keeneland too. Cyber and Zandon will both be in my bets.otb_lifer said:paging @Judge Smails
Kentucky Derby contender CYBERKNIFE (Gun Runner) looked great working first thing this AM, with
@flothejock up for trainer @bradcoxracing 4/23/22
@DRFWelsch
: Cyberknife very impressive 3/4 from 5/8 100.09 112.38 with huge gallop out 7/8 114.39 up a mile 138.84. 4/23/22
- checking back on this cat ... first two career starts (sprints 6 & 6.5f) were at Churchill - went off as favorite in debut, finished 1st, but DQ for bump.
second shot saw him overwhelming fave ... lugged out, uninspiring 2nd.
ship to FG, breaks his maiden in a route (1 1/16th) as favorite.
then pops a very flat & MEH 6th in a fakarkte Risen Star (Epi's only 3 yr old loss)
- so they wheel him out a month later for an AOC, which he handles, setting him up for the ship to a much weaker Oaklawn circuit (Un ####in' Ojo?!??!) for the Arky.
and here we are.
He didn’t love Epicenter’s gallop out
Last edited by a moderator:
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