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🐴 *** 2023 Aniscule Thread *** 🇮🇹 Ha Vinto Il Cavallo Di Mio Cugina - ARCANGELO! 🇮🇹 🐴 (2 Viewers)

otb_lifer

Footballguy
g'morning :coffee:

upon starting this thread back in '21, we paid our homage and respect to the poster known 'round here as MoCS (ManOfConstantSorrow), who dropped in and made this exercise a ton more fun than it had a right to be ... we miss him very much, and his memory lives on - R.I.P., Tom ✌️

this year we will be without the immense presence of wikkidpissah, who contributed so much to so many in this here community, in so many ways - his knowledge, and benevolence of spirit, will forever remain legendary - we were fortunate to have him at our disposal, so to speak ... seemed like there weren't a subject under the sun he couldn't jump into and not drop learned opinion and straight up brilliance on ... as they say these days "if you know, you know" - and so many here "know" because he improved the quality of the time spent here on this board.
what was most impressive out of a resumé that dripped awesomeness, was his vast experience, and love, for our lil' sport here, which has been relegated to niche, at it's best - once up there with Baseball & Boxing as the top 3 games in this country ... it reaches that peak again once a year, for one glorious Saturday in May - and that's why we're here.

i recall a frigid January morning a few years back ... starting this thread that day with frozen nuts and ice cold coffee - my furnace were on the fritz, and it had to be hovering 'round 15 degrees down in my office ... was going on about the COTdamn Jerome, which were to be run that day at Aqueduct ... and in jumped wik with the first response - we then spoke of frozen Conduit Ave, the dreaded C train, Jamaica Ave station, his days commuting to South Ozone from the Village ... absolutely took my mind off the tundra i were laboring in - btw, it was so bad that day that they cancelled the Jerome, but the convo just flowed ... no stopping that.

wik had access to parts of this game that most of us will never see or know ... most notably passing along his connections and him giving a young bug his first taste of the irons ... that kid was now H.o.F. jock "Money" Mike Smith - wik always had a soft spot for Smiff as a result, and Mike certainly made us a ton of coin over the years.

it was that kinda content he provided that elevated the discourse ... along with his nuts n' bolts knowledge of training ,and how the t'breds responded to the various nicks and injuries and treatments ... not to mention the milkshakes and snake oil and buzzers and hot whips and crooked muthas - as big a part of this gig's history as Whirlaway or Citation ...

... or Big Red (Secretariat), who was as much a favorite athlete to wik as Willie or Ali or Russ - he worshipped the chestnut colt with the abnormally large heart. and spoke many times outside of this thread about his incomparable dominance.

he went on much more adamantly when we chatted in PMs ... some stuff he kept off the board, but he dropped so much remarkable content otherwise ... he shared so much, but in these Derby threads ... WOW - his contributions will be so sorely missed.

much like his favorite, Secretariat - his heart was the stuff of legend ... i'll miss him a ton 'round this thread - it's an irreplaceable void - i bid him to rest peacefully ... with my appreciation and love for all of it, for everything and everybody he elevated and reached out to and touched in his own indelible way.

Thank you, Dale 🖤



🐴 we both loved those Tapits, and Tapit Trice is gonna be my guy for '23 ... Forte is the Super Horse, but the Tapit colt is the sentimental favorite - i know ol' wik agrees with me on this one ... we'll break down more later.

🐴 Forte has the Florida Derby tmrw, from the 11 hole - lest he's Big Brown or Barbaro, we could have a tote explosion - more on that later too, of course.

:deadhorse:
 
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TAPIT TRICE

back in '17, wik & i fell for the Tapit colt Tapwrit ... first catching our eye in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay ... he hustled prohib fave McCracken for a very gritty and impressive second that day - McCracken were bandied about as top KDerby timber, and our boy rattled his arse.

McXracken dropped off the trail, and Tapwrit took it to the next level, waxing the TB Derby field whilst hanging a robust 102 BSF up.

he then kinda crapped out in the Blue Grass in his final prep - rallied for a respectable 6th at Churchill - breaking our hearts, tho - not even in the hi-five.

sat out the Preak, then rewarded us handsomely by migging the Belmont like he owned Big Sandy - redemption were very sweet.

so now we have our '23 version - one who took two AOCs (Gulfstream/Aqueduct) prior to a remarkable run in the Tampa Bay Derby

i'm not even gonna describe it - just watch what this ginormously galloping gray did to that field ... hint: he were back of the pack for 90% of the gig, but i NEVER felt like he were out of it ... won a nifty .50 on every dollar i bet, and i bet quite a few.

but that giddyup when asked - he just chewed up ground with those tremendous strides ... and was not hard used coming home, almost appeared effortless - pace was respectable ... not blazing, nor tepid. he proved he can go bring it home from anywhere on the track, tho i do think Saez sacrificed some position by waiting - his TRAKUS had to have been quite impressive.

he's a big boy, he can get it ... and, unlike recent vintage TB Derby darlings (Quip, Helium, King Guillermo), he didn't simply dazzle on the parking lot like souped up surface - those others flopped in the KDerby, and i never took them so seriously due to my bias against the perennial TB bias - plus they all opted to sit until Churchill, which is usually 8 or 9 weeks ... yeah, no thanks.

A FEW CAVEATS: kid can be a pain in the arse in the gate - slow start at Churchill is kiss of death ... TB Derby were only his first graded stakes, also first going 2 turns.

may be better suited for Belmont, like his ilk portends - if Forte gets a clean trip in Churchill, it will be a tall task - off the pace have not fared too well since the points system.

SAEZ in the irons.

ergo, no big surprise that Pletcher is gonna follow his Tapwrit route, and TT is probable for the Blue Grass next week ... so, not only does his style buck the recent TB flashers trends, but so will his path.

he needs the seasoning ... not necessarily concerned with how much he carries over, but in how he handles the peripherals.

... we got Toddfather, folks -
we in great hands.
 
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Forte

5 outta 6 lifetime, including his last 4 in a row, all graded stakes (Sanford, Futurity, BC Juvey, F.o.Y.)

another Pletcher trainee, but this one has the great advantage of Irad on board. (more on that later).

he's a versatile runner, who has shown championship rating chops, but, more importantly, has that PUSH BUTTON gear that we love to see for the first Saturday in May.

the seasoning, the style, the connections - checks every box ¡con much gusto!

take a look see ...

BC Juvey

F.o.Y.


his first off the bench for '23 was the F.o.Y., and he's going tmrw in the Florida Derby, which has provided quite a few dazzlers over the years (the aforementioned Big Brown/Barbaro, most notably) - so when he enters the Churchill gate it will be third of his cycle, and we know how potent that angle is up in this game.

he does have a tendency to lane lug just a bit, and needs a bit of polishing on his leads - but an otherwise magnificent t'bred, who looks to be rounding into monster form at the right time - no brainer futures favorite for May 6th ... cat is a legit beast.

- his 11 hole draw tmrw is worrisome - only the two i mentioned earlier won from those far posts ... but, i'll tell ya this straight - Irad knows one method, and that is kamikaze ... if he has to launch the entire field over the fence to get position for that lightning quick first turn at Gulfstream, he'll gladly collapse 'em.

Mike Repole ownership, another favorite of both wik and me - he finall bagged his TC win with Mo Donegal, the Queens boy making good at his home track.

he's actually ok with tmrw's post - Forte already has a KDerby gate locked up, and Mike is viewing this as a race to face added adversity, more graded experience in a chili sprout - no joke being hung out there at that track.

he doesn't need to be hard used, as the eyes are on the much bigger prize, but these connections only know one way ... 4/5 ml favorite.
 
Derby future betting is open this weekend, at least it is on the tvg app

yeah ... still got the Fla. & Arky (both tmrw), and the Blue Grass/Wood/S.A. next week (4/8) - so lotta timber could fall - i'm sure they close the futures some time tonight, or perhaps early tmrw, before the preps are run.
 
Thanks for starting this. Wikkid will be sorely missed.

Forte looks too strong for the Florida Derby field, but he's going to go off at 1-5.

Looks like there may be some value in the Arky. I like Angel of Empire who hasn't run since he won the Risen Star in a determined performance.

Along with Tapit Trice, I see Kingsbarns being included in my tickets on Derby Day, although that was a really slow Louisiana Derby. He checks a lot of boxes for a contender.
 
Forte looks too strong for the Florida Derby field, but he's going to go off at 1-5.

let's be honest ... it's an absolute dogsh*t field - evidenced by Saffie Jo saddling a quarter of the entrants - sure, that's his home track, and he's top dog down there, finally eclipsing Pletcher in the W column, but ... that quartet of his ain't no White Abbario, to put it mildly.

but he has to be respected - nobody works the circuit better ... i can see his #5 Mr. Peeks (fisrt off the claim for Saffie) getting out and setting some hot fractions, with his other three forming the "guard", so to speak, keeping Forte away from a clean/dream trip ... that's the plan of course, but as i pointed out yesterday, Irad ain't having any of that - cat has literally put the fear of god into folk, he's certifiable ... though not a "need the lead" type, i'll be damned if he doesn't muscle Forte into a catbird cruising spot just because ...

also of note is the Yakteen/Baffert (Yakkert? Bactine?) entry from the 10 hole, Fort Bragg ... dunno how often that barn ships to Gulpstream, but they are parachuting in here because there is precious little to get excited about outside of the favorite ... excellent spot to secure some cheap points for May 6th, and to avoid the Arky/S.A. stable mates - their path is usually S.A. or Oaklawn ... and maybe the Wood, if need be - but don't recall too many Gulp ships over the years - he ain't here today to wind his effin' watch - there is a mission, and he may be my key horse - he is a must use, and might pop that far post exacta with Forte.

from their direct inside we have the #9 Cyclone Mischief, who will most likely battle that #5 early on for the lead ... he tried this in the F.o.Y., but ceded down to show dough ... his speed may hold better in this field, live look for exacta.

gotta give the Good Magic #4, Mage, a look underneath, as well ... perfect draw inside what should be the top speed - great position to tuck in and rate ... will be a stretch factor.

tl;dr - will take an act of god for big fave Forte to not edge this one off today ... he is that much better than this lot - hell, they can have him break from the Keys and he'd still prolly best them.

must uses are 4,5,9,10 - 'cuz, ya know, it is a race between animals - and i gotta respect the early speed/the pedigree/the shipper angles i mentioned already on those four.

Forte could go off at 1/9 and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. 😅


will be looking more into Arky in a bit ... more later
 
took a longer look at the Arky ...

all bets may be off 'til we get a better handle on the track conditions down there, as the state has been hit hard with high winds and a ton of rain; even a tornado or two touched down.

all things being equal, tho ... hard for me to look past the #7 Rocket Can as the class here - has the Holy Bull win on his resumé, then followed that up with a 2nd place showing behind Forte in the F.o.Y.

IF the track is sloppy, then i shift to the #10 Red Route One, who has availed himself well over the muck - him and fellow Rebel graduate, #8 Reincarnate, are horse for the course types i'm keen on building around.

let's see how what the weatherman says later on.
 
Oaklawn looks to be playing fast thus far, weather has not been an issue as of yet.

ergo, i'm taking a longer look at the #4 Two Eagles River, who has the best seat in the house, right outside what should be the controlling early speed of the #3 Harlocap ' the #4 can duck right in, and rate his arse off the pacesetter, terrific stalking spot ... if conditions hold, both of these are gonna have an awful lot to say about the outcome.

keybox of 4 w 3,7,8
 
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I tried to talk myself into Rocket Can and Red Route One, but just can't get excited. I'm going with Angel of Empire and adding some exotics.
 
Twinspires has added an exacta bet called a "power box." I can't find any explanation of what that is. Anyone?
 
I took Nautical Star as my key in the Florida Derby. I'm not even sure why I like it. Tail at your own risk.

Good luck, all.
 
Wheeled Wet Paint at 3/5 in the Oaklawn 10th....nice to see a 33-1 battling with a 50-1 for second.
 
Florida Derby - FORTE

bizarre opening to this one - gotta question the Yakteen strategy of hustling the #10 Fort Bragg out so urgently ... there were plenty of cheap speed in the #5 Mr. Peeks to rate behind - hard used out the 10 hole to try and steal it on the front? i kno the field were dodgy, but that was a complete head scratcher, a real WTF? kinda attack, considering the peripherals i mentioned.

so he subsequently ran himself out the gig, zero Derby points, sayonarra

the #4 Mage ran a monster - hung back of the pack at first call after a slow-ish start, and through most of the opening half ... and these were not necessarily blazing factions up front (unlike the Arky which went sub :23 opening qtr) - Mage picked 'em up with ease, and responded like a champ when asked ... problem was, there were that beast looming in the #11 silks - but, still ... can't come away not impressed with the run he showed - Good Magic's boy did everything they could've hoped for, 'cuz first place was never gonna be on the table - but he were the second most impressive horse i saw yesterday.

what more can be said about Forte?

was kinda (pleasantly) surprised Irad rode so patiently ... the four Saffie horses in there were gonna bust his balls all the way through, and a great deal of prudence were called for - that Saffie/Toddfather rivalry is legit - anyways, it reminded me a ton of Tapit Trice's run in the TB Derby ... rallying late after picking his "GO!" seam - and never doubting for a second that he were gonna bag the win.

a mature race outta the top connections & the unquestioned top three year old - towering over this crop, even if he were prevented from running his preferred race yesterday - he showed another facet of his game, looking like Z charging down late.

may go off on May 6th as the shortest odds in memory - the only thing preventing a possible 7-5 Battaglia ml will be if he draws one of the 1, 17, or 20 holes.


look at the Arky in a bit ...
 
Arkansas Derby - Angel of Empire

Cox/Flav had themselves a day --AoE punctuates his Risen Star victory with a stretch romp down in the Arky.

but what happened to the rest of this field? i mentioned in the Fla. Derby post that they went quicker early in the Arky, but the pace were similar - Prat rated this one magnificently, as the 3 or 4 other top timber all decided to pick the wrong day to toss clunkers ... it were a 53-1 shot, the #9 King Russell (who was not mentioned anywhere as a player prior to the race) who wound up screaming in to clunk up the exacta, as the also-rans sucked wind for the minor spoils.

credit to Flav/Cox, tho ... AoE was primed and fit, looked very much the part of a KDerby player ...
 
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Forte bags a somewhat disputed 95 bsf for Saturday's win, haven't seen anything yet on Angel of Empire's fig - but gotta think he's right there, if not a shade better ... he really did fire a beauty, subsequent viewings grow more impressive - matter of fact, looking at other Oaklawn figs from Arky day, he may have hit 100+

Arabian Knight dropping out really changes the complexion of contenders behind Forte - we have three bangers lined up for Saturday, including the Blue Grass for my boy Tapit Trice - and the long awaited return of Baffert bullet Cave Rock, who fired three 100+ Cali scorchers before being dusted by Tapit Trice in the Juvey, which was also his last time out ... four and a half month layoff - gotta think anything short of an AoE type of score and that one will be pointed to Pimlico.
 
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Forte bags a somewhat disputed 95 bsf for Saturday's win, haven't seen anything yet on Angel of Empire's fig - but gotta think he's right there, if not a shade better ... he really did fire a beauty, subsequent viewings grow more impressive - matter of fact, looking at other Oaklawn figs from Arky day, he may have hit 100+

Arabian Knight dropping out really changes the complexion of contenders behind Forte - we have three bangers lined up for Saturday, including the Blue Grass for my boy Tapit Trice - and the long awaited return of Baffert bullet Cave Rock, who fired three 100+ Cali scorchers before being dusted by Tapit Trice in the Juvey, which was also his last time out ... four and a half month layoff - gotta think anything short of an AoE type of score and that one will be pointed to Pimlico.

AoE ended up earning a 94 for the Arkansas Derby.
 
Forte bags a somewhat disputed 95 bsf for Saturday's win, haven't seen anything yet on Angel of Empire's fig - but gotta think he's right there, if not a shade better ... he really did fire a beauty, subsequent viewings grow more impressive - matter of fact, looking at other Oaklawn figs from Arky day, he may have hit 100+

Arabian Knight dropping out really changes the complexion of contenders behind Forte - we have three bangers lined up for Saturday, including the Blue Grass for my boy Tapit Trice - and the long awaited return of Baffert bullet Cave Rock, who fired three 100+ Cali scorchers before being dusted by Tapit Trice in the Juvey, which was also his last time out ... four and a half month layoff - gotta think anything short of an AoE type of score and that one will be pointed to Pimlico.

AoE ended up earning a 94 for the Arkansas Derby.

yeah, more in line with what i initially thought - felt he were right in Forte's range - but maybe a hair above.

Just came in out of respect for wikid and to reminisce about the time I stupidly drafted Russell Baze in the greatest sport draft and he lost his mind. 🤣

both of us did

i judged the jockeys, and damn near gave @Ilov80s the 2 points for Sancho, ergo relegating Baze to the bottom.

🐴
 
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Vegas Odds As Of 4/3

Forte can best be had at Circa, for a robust 3/1 ... Caesars has him at 2/1, while Westgate has him down at 8-5 (where i honestly think Battaglia would set him right now).

Angel of Empire can be had for 18/1, 14/1, 12/1, respectively - he closed at 29/1 in the last KDFW offering, so he pretty much been halved on the heels of his win.

Tapit Trice at 6/1,10/1, 9/1 ... if he shines in the Blue Grass, he gonna be somewhere 'round 3/1, 5/2 come Derby day.

for those feeling the #9 King Russel from the Arky, that BuckpasserX currently sits at 65/1, 125/1, 100/1

howzabout Good Magic's boy, Mage, who put the fear of god into the mighty Forte? 20/1 across the board at all three books, down from the 49/1 prior to his shifty second behind the beast.
 
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Cox on AoE

wasn't aware that were Prat's first time piloting ... he (Prat) is obviously quite enthused - interested to see if he remains in the irons for the Derby - gotta think he gets first call here, AoE may have a lil' Country House ('19 winner under Flav, after the MS dq) up in his style.
 
as we sit on the eve of the last trio of major preps, i thought it good time to flesh out what i'm looking for in the wagering, which is same as it ever were.

A KEY HORSE.

i never slap straight win bets here, as the pari-mutuel payout is the same on that wager as it would be at your lowest fodder bullring - in other words, a 6-1 shot is ginna pay roughly 14 n' change, no matter the Stakes, conditions, field size, track etc

where one can make hay on Derby win wagers is finding a banger horse who will be going off at odds he'll likely never sniff again ... example would be Angel of Empire, who can be had at roughly 15-1 as of now, but ... when he returns to lower graded stakes later this szn, you'll be lucky to get him at anything more than 5/2, if that ... and if it's a rinky dink gig, you'll be lucky to see even money.

so in an instance like that, sure ... hell, even King Russell, who clunked up behind AoE, fits the bill better, going off around 80-1 avg right now ... can't fault folks for taking those kinda swings, but since the points system has been initiated, we've had one clean upset winner, and that were just last year with Rich Strike - who benefitted from the suicidal shippers going BANSAI!, turning the race into more of a farce than a true test of the timber.

he were 80-1 for a reason.

so the key horse i'm looking for will be boxed up and down the exotics - in that instance, the key horse needs to fill one of the winning slots, it's not the much more expensive straight box option, which runs your outlay up a ton with the myriad of payoff possibilities.

Tapit Trice is looking to be the one, and then gotta hope Forte has some force majeure that keeps him off the ticket - i will still use Forte in the box, as he'll be the saver.

but i'm starting to drift a bit to favoring Mage - in the event he came in, with the aforementioned other two running out, well, then we might have that elusive suitcase haul.

of course, the odds of the top cats both finishing up the track are pretty long, and, as i said, really not the play since the points system ... even if, you gotta have the other choices right, lest you rip up what coulda been a golden ticket.

still poring over the earlier preps, and we do have roughly 30 more horses going tmrw who may also avail themselves as intriguing underneath plays.

slapping a $20 spot on King Russell to win would net ya roughly $1625, if he somehow pulled a Rich Strike, but ... that could easily go up 30× that amount if he's in your box configuration, and tops your key horse, who must also run in the top three (hypothetical trifecta scenario).

ETA/tl;dr - the Derby exotic pools are so ridiculously deep, the play for this race is always in the verticals.
 
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Forte looks very tough. Can rate and finish - a huge benefit at 1 1/4. Hard to see him out of the exacta. I’ll research as we get closer.
 
taking a look at the last 3 big preps, let's start at the home track ...

Wood Memorial
has produced but ONE Derby winner this century, and that was as far back as we can go - Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

things looked up quite a bit last year in the TC series, tho - what with Wood graduates Early Voting & Mo Donegal taking the back two legs, respectively.

but, yeah ... that Derby drought is legit.

today featues a hefty 13 horse field, with 3 from Pletcher, and a pair each from Saffie & Cox. lotta Florida flavor coming up north for this one.

Cox has the ml favorite coming out the 13 hole in Hit Show, who owns a victory over this surface ready, rallying late to take down the Withers two months ago.

Manny stays on board, and Arctic Arrogance & General Banker will also be back today. looked like a ton left in the tank for the winner, who had a troubled trip, but closed with authority once in the clear ... much the best. 13 hole is a concern today.

Field, with accrued Derby points where applicable:

  1. Dreamlike (7-2)
  2. Shadow Dragon (12-1) 13
  3. Knox (50-1)
  4. General Banker (20-1) 24
  5. Slip Mahoney (6-1) 20
  6. Clear the Air (15-1) 5
  7. Artic Arrogance (6-1) 16
  8. Lord Miles (30-1) 5
  9. Crupi (12-1)
  10. Uncle Jake (20-1)
  11. Classic Catch (10-1)
  12. Mr. Swagger (30-1)
  13. Hit Show (5-2) 20

Pletcher has the 1,9,11

Cox with the 6,13

Saffie with the 3 & 8

a very uninspiring lot ... not much to get excited about, as far as future prospects go - but maybe last year were an omen, though we have no Chad Brown entry (Preak winners Cloud Computing/Early Voting) to assess.

i'm taking a good look at that #5 Slip Mahoney ... he gave Tapit Trice all he could handle on this track (finishing second by a neck), then had a horrid start in the Gotham - trouble right out the gate, got lost to the back of that 13 horse field, but rallied strong to finish second, by roughly the amount of lengths his blown start cost him. Big A gym rat up for Cox ... looks solid - needs to show he can handle the two turns and get the distance - i think he runs honestly enough to be a big factor, and to move forward.

also thinking the #11 Classic Catch can open some eyes today - he has two wins at this distance, including his last at this track ... familiar company for him, will definitely hold his own - on the improve.

the Pletcher #1 and the Cox #13 will likely take co-favoritism, but hoping for big things outta the two i mentioned.

very "meh" field, hope they at least put on a good show.
 
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Blue Grass Stakes

gotta love Keeneland, nothing like their abbreviated meets - this is the opening weekend, and no shortage of star power here, with current KDerby 2nd choice Tapit Trice headlining this field of 11:

  1. Tapit Trice (5-2)
  2. Clear the Air (30-1)
  3. Verifying (3-1)
  4. Classic Car Wash (12-1)
  5. Hayes Strike (15-1)
  6. Scoobie Quando (15-1)
  7. Sun Thunder (10-1)
  8. Blazing Sevens (6-1)
  9. Major Blue (30-1)
  10. Raise Cain (9-2)
  11. Mendelssohns March (20-1)

#3 Verifying (outta Justify) should be hustled outta there early, and i fully expect him to try and steal this one on the engine ... had a very dodgy trip, leading to an awful showing, last out in the Rebel - but in a field bereft of top notch early gunners, he will fire outta there, and try to squeeze the fave tight on that rail. Cox/Gaff are Keeneland blue blood.

Tapit Trice at ml of 5/2, which, if it stayed as such, is a gift for believers in this one ... Verifying will give him some juicy fractions to close in to, Saez gotta ration this cat back a bit, and hold the catbird rating slot from the inside - he can save a ton of ground if he's not pinched too severely ... but can't envision that being allowed to happen.

will go off much lower than that 5/2 ml, unless we see a pronounced dead rail/front end speed bias.

Pletcher lugged to 6th here with Tapwrit, then bounced back with a Belmont score - if similar trouble is encountered today it really wouldn't break my heart, tbh ... would make him more attractive on the board 4 weeks from now.

i mentioned in the Wood post that we had no Chad Brown entry, notable with Cloud Computing & Early Voting both moving on from the Big A to big Preakness scores ... well, he's here today, instead - and has a live one in the #8 Blazing Sevens - who was beaten up at the start of the F.o.Y., and subsequently never lifted a hoof.

but Brown slots his runners prudently, and he's following sire Good Magic's (who just had a bang up 2nd in the Fla Derby from Mage) path here ... also going first time blinks, which Brown hits at a nice clip - then factor in the ridiculous 43%! hit rate for Irad/Chad, and you know you gotta pay attention ... if this is, indeed, gonna be Brown's Preak freak, then you can expect a quality outing, and a big move forward.

the #7 Sun Thunder is coming back after only two weeks (very flat 5th in La. Derby), so they are pedal to the metal mode to secure a KDerby gate for this cat ... most likely spurred on by the flattering wins of Angel of Empire (Arky) and Two Phils (Ruby), as Sun Thunder was the meat in their first & third finish sandwich in the Risen Star.

#4 Classic Car Wash been bangin' heads with TT down in Tampa ... could sit very tight on the favorites arse this afternnon - gonna need the race of a lifetime, tho.

very intriguing lot here ... Verifying sets the pace, let's see what TT brings from the 1 hole, and if these other three can take the leaps forward to make this a hotly contested battle.
 
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Santa Anita Derby

we have the great benefit of a recent key race for this one, as the top three finishers in last month's San Felipe are all back for another go over the Arcadia track.

Today's Field:

  1. I Don't Get It, Mario Gutierrez, (20-1)
  2. Dazzlemesilver, Kent Desormeaux (50-1)
  3. Geaux Rocket Ride, Flavien Prat (3-1)
  4. One in Vermillion, Hector Berrios (50-1)
  5. Practical Move, Ramon Vazquez (8-5)
  6. National Treasure, John Velazquez (3-1)
  7. Skinner, Victor Espinoza (4-1)
  8. Mandarin Hero, Kazushi Kimura (8-1)
  9. Low Expectations, Umberto Rispoli (30-1)

should be some very good early speed in this one, which would seemingly set up similar as the San Felipe ...

the big timber in here are obviously the 3,5,6 ... but gotta wonder if Shireffs has that Curlin baby, #7 Skinner, a bit closer this time ... he made a terrific move in the SF, but seemed to flatten - grabbed third more by attrition, it seems, but then noticing he did gallop that final bit of the stretch with some giddyup.

maybe keep him a bit closer today, as to not have to use him so far wide, which seemed to soften him a bit in that initial rurn for home - i mean, horse has finished third in all previous stakes he has run in ... maybe time to shift gears just a weeeee bit?

another interesting look is at the #8 Mandarin Hero, the Japanese (not Chinese) shipper ... Japan has been pretty dominant on the world stage as of late, but this is not one of their more prized colts, but he ain't Eskanderya, either - this fella only been out once this year, a very respectable second, closing into a hot pace, at today's S.A. Derby distance ... looks like he'll get a shot to do likewise with this field/pace - he was undefeated (4-0) as a two yr old.

real wildcard up in here, but we do know this race should set up to his liking ... history will be made, regardless of finish, as he is the first Japanese shipper to ever get a gate for this storied race.
 
SCRATCH IN SA DERBY

the #3 Geaux Rocket Ride will not be running - looks like very cheap engine in the #4 as pacesetter now ... gonna hurt those late runners i was hoping to hook into some money, lest one of the cheapies runs out his damn noggin - dunno.

ETA: but the #7 & #8 now have less class to outduel.
 
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