Florida/Gulfstream/Tampa Bay
FORTE & TAPIT TRICE
covered these two aplenty thus far, kicking off the thread with looks at both ... they have been the dominant stalwarts of the prep szn, and are deserved top two choices on the board.
both Pletcher trained, with Irad & Saez in the irons, respectively. connections don't get any better - toss in ownership of Forte by Queens boy Repole, and my wont for backing Tapits, and they were a no-brainer combo for me to feature as i did.
they both also wrapped up their prep campaigns with gutty scores in hotly contested stretch runs - immensely powerful and talented colts who responded to extreme pressure when presented - that put a huge exclamation point on their credentials heading to Churchill.
so, let's begin ...
Holy Bull - 2/4/23 - Rocket Can
Florida prep szn kicks off a bit later here, with a pretty average, nondescript affair - notable for the winner who will be running in Louisville, and who finally broke his maiden (0-4 as two yr old) for Mott.
also up in here and burning some coin were future Wood winner Lord Miles out the 1 hole ... but the big flop here were the Romans trained #4 Cyclone Mischief, who came in at even money.
Sam F. Davis - 2/11/23 - Litigate
switching over to Tampa now for a totally inconsequential affair - notable tho for the Pletcher trained winner, out of BC Champ Blame ... this one might've had some legs moving forward, but suffered injury, and is off our trail here - maybe he rebounds down the road.
Fountain of Youth - 3/4/23 - Forte
back at Gulfstream for the 3 yr old coming out party (if not the coronation) of the beast that is our current favorite for the Roses.
Pletcher built an extremely solid 2 yr old stakes foundation with him, going 4 for 5, taking the last 3 in a row, culminated by the stretch run waxing of prohib favorite Cave Rock at the
BC Juvey
no surprise he went off here as 1/2 favorite - when ya know, ya know ... and we all knew.
this is also a very key race in regards to moving forward on the trail ... in the 6,7,8 holes here we have Blazing Sevens, Mage (much more on him coming up), Rocket Can - all on their way to Churchill ... not to mention Holy Bull flopper Cyclone Mischief coming out the 9 hole - he currently sits on the KDerby bubble, needing a few defections.
not much else to say here about Forte than i have already put forth in the thread previously ... the sweeping move by Irad here is a thing of beuaty, tho ... and no 3 yr old in the world were touching him once he hit top of the stretch.
Rocket Can backed up his Holy Bull score with a run that would've beaten anything but this friggin' freak, and Cyclone Mischief bounced back well enough from his previous DUD.
but howzabout Mage? making only his second career start, getting bumped and bounced and fanned out, yet still a very respectable 4th in this field - Javi has seen MUCH better days, and the jock switch by Pletcher for the Fla. Derby was a fait accompli, if not warranted, when you can snag Saez - no brainer, and a marked piloting strategy.
... meanwhile, something else is cooking upstate on the western coast ...
Tampa Bay Derby - 3/11/23 - Tapit Trice
before we go further, just look at his effortless stride ... big boy makes up a ton of ground once motoring, yet doesn't ever looked taxed ... a bit goofy, perhaps, but never looks to be laboring.
nice full dance card for this one, even if it's dotted with wallflowers - certainly not the ilk of horse flesh we just saw Forte dominate, but ... it ain't TT's fault, and Pletcher playing it straight by keeping his two big guys away from each other.
only current KDerby fodder up in here is Lord Miles, who goes off roughly 30/1 for Saffie, far cry from his 3/1 last time we saw him ... anyways, no wonder TT was the big favorite here.
but he had to answer some questions in this one: how would he handle his first Stakes try at at a mile+ with 2 turns? would his gate shennanigans hamper him?
Saez kept him well back there for a goodly portion - but you can see that huge gray start motoring around the 1/8th pole ... was 7th or so as they hit the stretch ... but then those long, powerful strides kicked in, and that were pretty much all she wrote.
as i said, not the greatest field - but he looked like he were just finishing a morning breeze as he crossed the wire - geared down and wanting that feed bag - even after being fanned 5 wide and having to pass 7 horses.
BAM!
... how will Forte respond back downstate?
Florida Derby - 4/1/23 - Forte
... like that ^
the Champ went off at 1-5, with Mage a very distant second choice at 9/2 ... sometimes the oddsmakers hit it perfectly.
Forte came in here and gave a tremendous encore performance - starting from the dreaded 11 hole at Gulfstream is no picnic, that first turn hits in a flash - and i thought Irad gave an extremely mature (for him) and patient ride - he was the difference in this race, imo.
Mr. Peeks were supposed to be the rabbit, but for some unforeseen reason the #10 Fort Bragg bolted outta there, and tried to steal this on the engine ... i guess in retrospect it made a ton of sense, what with Forte hung outside him - Yakky gave Joel the GO! and they zoomed to the lead ... and this is where Irad's patience came into play - he knew he had the superior animal, so he rated back, keeping Forte deeper than he'd ever been.
once Yakky's plan fell apart, it were Mage coming four wide with first crack on the big sweep for home ... Forte was right on his hip, and ol' Cyclone Mischief were tight on his onside ... Mage dug in hard, but Irad had a bit more horse left in the tank, and flashed by in a blink ... tremendous effort by both.
we all knew about Forte, of course ... but Mage really impressed me here - showed a big step forward from his troubled 4th in the F.o.Y. - Saez had to move earlier than Irad, imo, lest he get fanned even wider ... the two of them showed ability to navigate traffic and find daylight, to rate and close with authority - and to dig in hard when eyeballed ... Forte is just the better horse atm, but i came away very impressed with Mage.
... how will TT answer this?
Blue Grass Stakes - 4/8/23 - Tapit Trice
... by shipping outta state to majestic Keeneland, for what would be as hotly contested a finish as the one at we just saw at Gulfstream.
here was my post about thos one from last week:
________________________________
"TT broke clean, Saez moved a bit earlier than last out ... had him out in the 3 path, but found daylight - as i said about him last week, he can lug in the lane, and get sloppy on his leads ... and he looked a lil' bit goofy in that stretch yesterday - head tugging out, kinda looked disinterested - had contact from Verifying, which led to a ridiculous foul claim against Saez/TT.
just like the TB Derby, i never thought he was in danger of losing, tho - Saez had the much superior animal under him, and TT may have looked like he wanted to hit the concession stands instead, but that is one hell of a load once he gets underway - big boy seems to relish these stretch battles (he's had 4 now where he wouldn't be denied), and appears to sense that he may not always be firing 100%, but still understands the task at hand - no denying his heart - he's never looking "pretty" out there, but he also never looks overmatched or intimidated - still don't think he's run his best race yet, and that's a scary prop for the rest of the 3 yr olds out there.
lotta love for TT.
Verifying had everything go his way, even having the Mott horse on the engine, allowing him to rate off decent fractions - had a dream trip, but got hooked by the beast, and did not avail well with his bumping in the stretch duel."
_______________________________
now, the above seems a bit harsh on Verifying, in retrospect - he ran himself one hell of a banger - guess my post race thoughts regarding him were clouded by the bullchit foul claim ... but that ain't the colt's fault - my bad on that one.
as i mentioned in the Oaklawn dive, lotta credit to him (Verifying) for bouncing back with such resilience after his muddy 4th in the Rebel - he flattened out in the slop that day, yes - but Cox/Gaff had hum primed for this one, and, just like the ding-dong battle with Forte/Mage, these were the two favorites coming in - Verifying at 2/1 choice, while TT was allowed to go off at a plus odds of 8/5 ... getting anything more than even money back on that cat was a gift. case closed.
Verifying will most likely be in with the controlling speed front pack at Churchill - he's one to look closely at, though i don't favor him as much as Mage, but he did put the fear of Onion into TT.
Forte & TT earned the hype and top two slots on the wagering boards - both also showed a ton of heart in the process ... plenty to love here, folks.
NY/Aqueduct tmrw
