1.1 Fantasy Rookie Pick Post Combine (1 Viewer)

[dmac37]

What is everyone thinking now that the combine is over in regards to the 1.1 pick this year. I usually don't follow too much until closer to the draft but for the first time in my 12 year dynasty career I have the 1.1 pick, so I'm a little more vested this year.

Pre-combine it was Fournette & Cook for the most part. I still think where in the draft and what team the top players are drafted by will be the biggest factor.

Is it still Fournette & Cook for the most part? Do you feel the 1.1 has lost a little value with neither guy having a great combine?

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

If anything I think 1.02 has lost some value. All things equal Fournette running 4.51 @ 240lbs solidified my choice at 1.01 especially in non PPR leagues. 

If Cook lands somewhere like Indy he will likely go first in many leagues.

 

[mikel2014]

Cook was my 1.01, and he posted some surprisingly low measurables. So for me the 1.01 has lost a bit of luster. Fournette has closed the gap, enough so that the draft and landing spot will ultimately decide 1.01 for me.

Cook's question marks scare me more than Fournette's. While Fournette posted a concerning vert, running 4.51 at 240 pounds is far more impressive than Cook's 4.49 at 210. Another Cook concern is the 7.27 3-cone. I'm really curious to see how he shakes out with the draft now. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

What really happened that was different than expected?? and what was so far off to change the rankings significantly?? only thing to me is that Ross is faster than anticipated (still an injury risk) As far as Fournette and Cook I don't think anything changed to modify whatever your opinion was pre combine. Just my two cents. I think the main thing that came out of the combine is that those that hadn't done their research now also know how deep this draft is at the skill positions, mainly rb and TE. For me I still have Fournette 1 and Cook 2

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What really happened that was different than expected?? and what was so far off to change the rankings significantly?? only thing to me is that Ross is faster than anticipated (still an injury risk) As far as Fournette and Cook I don't think anything changed to modify whatever your opinion was pre combine. Just my two cents. I think the main thing that came out of the combine is that those that hadn't done their research now also know how deep this draft is at the skill positions, mainly rb and TE. For me I still have Fournette 1 and Cook 2

Huh? Cook had one of the worst combines a top RB has ever had.  Aside from a moderate 40 time (which was actually rather weak given his size) he was very poor in every other drill.

 

[mikel2014]

What really happened that was different than expected?? and what was so far off to change the rankings significantly?? only thing to me is that Ross is faster than anticipated (still an injury risk) As far as Fournette and Cook I don't think anything changed to modify whatever your opinion was pre combine. Just my two cents. I think the main thing that came out of the combine is that those that hadn't done their research now also know how deep this draft is at the skill positions, mainly rb and TE. For me I still have Fournette 1 and Cook 2

The big surprise/concern is Cook posting a 9th percentile SPARQ score (athleticism). He ran a 3-cone drill only .02 faster than a 300 pound o-lineman. Research, tape, whatever you want to call it, I didn't see anyone predicting that pre-combine. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Huh? Cook had one of the worst combines a top RB has ever had.  Aside from a moderate 40 time (which was actually rather weak given his size) he was very poor in every other drill.

If Cooks combine doesn't change anything, then there's no point in ever even looking at combing results.

 

[Aunt Jemima]

If Cooks combine doesn't change anything, then there's no point in ever even looking at combing results.

I'm not saying it means nothing but it is one piece of info and in this case it doesn't make sense in conjunction with his tape to me at least. This guy looks athletic to me. I went back and watched and lol if you are telling me this guy moves like a 300 lb lineman. I guess if you had him one and you emphasize combine then I'll concede #1 is worth less now. To me I still see Fournette and then Cook as the tops of this skill position class

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz_TN_sC0Ww

 

[BradtheAg]

I am dumbfounded by Cook's combine.  No idea how those shuttle numbers are even possible

 

[Gandalf]

I am dumbfounded by Cook's combine.  No idea how those shuttle numbers are even possible

It's like he was hurt and decided not to tell anyone and run anyway

 

[Biabreakable]

Huh? Cook had one of the worst combines a top RB has ever had.  Aside from a moderate 40 time (which was actually rather weak given his size) he was very poor in every other drill.

I think you are exaggerating how poor Cooks combine performance was. He was above average in the bench (not that this is an important metric for RB). His 40 time was tied for 7th best of the RB and is plenty fast.

The jumps were below average, the vertical more than the broad. The 3 cone and 20 yard times were below average. He was not poor in every other drill though. You are overstating your point here. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think you are exaggerating how poor Cooks combine performance was. He was above average in the bench (not that this is an important metric for RB). His 40 time was tied for 7th best of the RB and is plenty fast.

The jumps were below average, the vertical more than the broad. The 3 cone and 20 yard times were below average. He was not poor in every other drill though. You are overstating your point here. 

Overstating?  His spartan score was worse than any 1st round RB in the last 20 years.

Bench is borderline irrelevant and his 40 time was 7th in a year with a lot of slow 40 times and behind or similar to guys that were significantly heavier than him.  Everything else was miserable.  His 3-cone time was competing with 300lb offensive linemen.  

Granted with the 1.02 in my pocket in one league if his draft status stays steady (2nd RB picked in a good situation) he'll probably still be my pick as the combine is not the be all end all.  But as far as combine results go short of running a 4.8 40 (only because the 40 makes headlines), it went about as badly as possible for him.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yes it was an exaggeration to say he was poor in every other drill. Not trying to pick a fight, I just respectfully disagree with the emphasis of your previous statement.

eta

From my perspective I have considered Cook the best of this RB class for quite awhile. It made me a little sad to see him being ranked first by some prominent draftniks recently. So while I am wondering why his times were so slow. I kind of see this as an opportunity to get Cooks with a lesser investment than the 1st overall pick. Maybe he will drop to 3rd or 4th overall in some drafts. So while it may be disappointing to see those low times, it could help people get him for a little less than he would have cost prior to it.

If he bombs his pro day also, or does not do any of those drills again, then I would have a little bit further concern. But I mostly see it as him being priced more reasonably than he would, if he had aced all of those drills or just did each of them at an average level.

We are talking about .3 seconds here. A hiccup could cause that.

 

[Warhogs]

I put little importance on the combine so I don't think it changes much. I tend to maybe bump someone like Ross up a bit for a blazing time but I don't ding players much for bad combine numbers and focus more on how they perform in games.

 

[Otis]

He destroyed the biscuit drill. 

 

[BigTex]

Cook was my 1.01, and he posted some surprisingly low measurables. So for me the 1.01 has lost a bit of luster. Fournette has closed the gap, enough so that the draft and landing spot will ultimately decide 1.01 for me.

Cook's question marks scare me more than Fournette's. While Fournette posted a concerning vert, running 4.51 at 240 pounds is far more impressive than Cook's 4.49 at 210. Another Cook concern is the 7.27 3-cone. I'm really curious to see how he shakes out with the draft now. 

If Cook's 4.49 time is a concern then what were you expecting? I get the other drills being a concern but his 40 time?

Tex

 

[-OZ-]

I put little importance on the combine so I don't think it changes much. I tend to maybe bump someone like Ross up a bit for a blazing time but I don't ding players much for bad combine numbers and focus more on how they perform in games.

Poor performance at the combine should raise the question of why?  But if there's a good answer I'll agree.   

IMO Fournette was the top pick heading into the combine and that wasn't likely to change.  It didn't, and the gap got slightly bigger.  

 

[BigTex]

I'm not saying it means nothing but it is one piece of info and in this case it doesn't make sense in conjunction with his tape to me at least. This guy looks athletic to me. I went back and watched and lol if you are telling me this guy moves like a 300 lb lineman. I guess if you had him one and you emphasize combine then I'll concede #1 is worth less now. To me I still see Fournette and then Cook as the tops of this skill position class

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz_TN_sC0Ww

Look at that "highlight" video and count how many times he shreds tackles for long TD runs. It's not like he's running through big holes on every run, he's running through people.

I'd understand if some people have concerns about his metrics but I'm not one of them. He's a ball player and on the field he's a warrior that makes you say wow!

Tex

 

[Zyphros]

In the one league I own 1.01 and no other picks, I think at this point I'll be wanting to trade down.  Fournette or Cook never were very appealing to me, so might as well trade down get someone I actually like in the mid first and maybe get another first in '18.  It's a better move for what I view as neither Fournette or Cook as a standout.  

In another league I own #1, #4, #6, #8 so there's not many options for me to even move down, and in that case I'll be taking Fournette very likely.

 

[petekrum]

The combine changed nothing for me. I still have it as Fournette and Cook. The only thing I care about at this point is where they end up.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

It's still Fournette. Just not as obviously so.

 

[Ack88]

For fans of Cook- this represents and excellent buying opportunity. His stock has taken a hit. Use this opportunity to move up.

His college tape speaks for itself- he is a playmaker.

In my book- I still give Fournette a slight edge, but final destinations after the draft might be the tiebreaker for me.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I am dumbfounded by Cook's combine.  No idea how those shuttle numbers are even possible

Me too. I was lower than most but this doesn't add up. Anyone think he gained 15 lbs for the combine and it didn't work? Still don't see how he tested that bad but may be part of the reason.

 

[voiceofunreason]

If McAffery lands in Indy this could change.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

My only certainties at this point are McCaffrey and Davis as my top 2. Probably have Cook and Fournette at 3 & 4 but need to reevaluate. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Cook weighed in at 210. Where that higher number came from is a mystery and is wrong.

 

[kneeshooter]

For fans of Cook- this represents and excellent buying opportunity. His stock has taken a hit. Use this opportunity to move up.

His college tape speaks for itself- he is a playmaker.

In my book- I still give Fournette a slight edge, but final destinations after the draft might be the tiebreaker for me.

As the holder of the 1.1 and a fan of Cook this is a great time to take advantage and see what the 1.2 will give me to jump up a spot. 

 

[Labrynth]

Me too. I was lower than most but this doesn't add up. Anyone think he gained 15 lbs for the combine and it didn't work? Still don't see how he tested that bad but may be part of the reason.

If he gained 15 lbs for the combine, then his playing weight is 195.  That plus the shoulder injury history would make it pretty hard to believe he can be a 3-down back.

If he was drunk the night before, then there are serious character concerns.

If he didnt bother training for the combine, then there are work ethic concerns.

I can't think of anyway of explaining his combine performance without it looking bad in some way.  I have the 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 picks in my dynasty draft this year and my intention for awhile has been Fournette, Cook, and McCaffrey (league has two flex spots, so you can start 4x RBs).  I have the luxury of not having to rank them within these 3 picks.  After the combine, Fournette and McCaffrey are almost sure things to be in my top 3 (barring a horrible landing spot), but Cook is not.  Right now, leaning more towards Davis or just trading the pick.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I can't think of anyway of explaining his combine performance without it looking bad in some way.  

What if the reason was that his nerves got the best of him and he tensed up? Still not ideal, but not damning. He obviously can perform as a runner in the spotlight.

I have no idea what happened of course, but maybe it was just a bad day.

RB is very instinctual position on the field so the "nerves" thing getting to him about running drills that weren't natural for him wouldn't concern me too much.

Saying this is "no big deal at all" is hiding your head in the sand, but over-reacting to it is probably even more dangerous. Scouts will still look at his film and evaluate his strengths and weaknesses on the field. If he's still a high draft pick that would make me feel much better about using the 1.02/1.03 on him. We could probably just chalk it up to a "bad day".

 

[Labrynth]

What if the reason was the his nerves got the best of him and he tensed up? Still not ideal, but not damning.

I have no idea what happened of course, but maybe it was just a bad day.

RB is very instinctual position on the field so the "nerves" thing getting to him about running drills that weren't natural for him wouldn't concern me too much.

Saying this is "no big deal at all" is hiding your head in the sand, but over-reacting to it is probably even more dangerous. Scouts will still look at his film and evaluate his strengths and weaknesses on the field. If he's still a high draft pick that would make me feel much better about using the 1.02/1.03 on him. We could probably just chalk it up to a "bad day".

Its possible, but still strange.  During combine interviews, he publicly declared himself the best RB in the class.  Confidence and nerves usually dont go hand in hand.  Also, the pass-catching drills should not be foreign to him and he looked pretty bad there too.

I hope that Cook re-dos the entire combine at his pro-day.  If he can test close to what is seen on tape, I can overlook this.  If he dodges it or puts up another poor day, then there is another red-flag that the tape is somehow not showing.  

 

[mikel2014]

If Cook's 4.49 time is a concern then what were you expecting? I get the other drills being a concern but his 40 time?

Tex

The 40 time isn't the biggest concern, but I was expecting closer to 4.45. It's another piece of the package, which as a whole is below expectations.

 

[Borden]

Landing spots will decide the which back to take. If Fournette goes to Denver he's the 1.01. If Cook goes to Washington he's probably 1.01. If both go to these spots, I'd take Cook as I think his vision keeps him from being a complete bust and likely to get off to a quicker start. 

My quick thoughts on the two:

Spoiler

Cook and Fournette are the only two backs that I was watching and actually went "Ooowww!" Fournette when he crushed that kid on the side after he caught a swing pass. And Cook went he set up a block to the right and slid back inside to bust a run. It was beautiful. 

That's the best way I can describe these two. Cook is a smart runner that reads well and sets up blocks nicely but he lacks elite physical traits. Fournette is such a good athlete that it covers up the fact that he has terrible vision. He will miss a wide open hole but it doesn't matter because he will run over the filling LB, stiff arm a Safety and take it to the house. Fournette worries me. 

 

[Biabreakable]

The 40 time isn't the biggest concern, but I was expecting closer to 4.45. It's another piece of the package, which as a whole is below expectations.

That is .04 seconds different than your expectation. Do you think you can even recogonize 4% of a second?

If you count one one thousand that is basically like only being able to pronounce the first half of the first o in the statement.

 

[mikel2014]

That is .04 seconds different than your expectation. Do you think you can even recogonize 4% of a second?

If you count one one thousand that is basically like only being able to pronounce the first half of the first o in the statement.

I think you're taking a very minor point and exaggerating it. If you re-read what I said, 40 time was not even mentioned in my main explanation.

"The big surprise/concern is Cook posting a 9th percentile SPARQ score (athleticism). He ran a 3-cone drill only .02 faster than a 300 pound o-lineman. Research, tape, whatever you want to call it, I didn't see anyone predicting that pre-combine."

 

[ghostguy123]

Doesn't seem long ago that this draft was viewed as some all time great draft for dynasty.  People were selling out bigtime for future 1sts last year. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I think as humans our conceptualization of time is pretty interesting. It gets magnified by events such as the combine where the differences between excellent athletes are only fractions of a second.

All of these players are excellent athletes. If you think a few fractions of a second means Cook moves like an offensive lineman, that is your prerogative to think so.

I came across this article last year I think which I found to be interesting as the author shows which tests are the most predictive of future NFL success.

One interesting thing from this article is that it was was found that none of the tests are statistically relevant except for the 40 time. See the graph called overall importance of combine measurements in predicting success. For a statistic to have relevant predictive power it requires a correlation coefficient of .8 or higher. The only drill that is higher than .8 is the 40 time. Weight was the next highest metric and is almost .8 correlation. The 3 cone has .6 correlation, which isn't significant enough to have predictive power, but it is relatively more significant than the jumps or the shuttle which hover around .4 correlation. 

Below that you see a graph depicting the importance of the combine by position. It is the least significant for WRs, then free safeties and then 3rd least relevant for RBs and inside linebackers. The combine is more predictive for other positions than it is for these 4 positions.

NFL teams will factor these combine results into their player rankings and once they are drafted the combine measurements don't really matter anymore because that data is already baked into the players draft position. The draft position will replace any ranking based on combine measurements otherwise you are counting the combine results twice.

 

[Borden]

Doesn't seem long ago that this draft was viewed as some all time great draft for dynasty.  People were selling out bigtime for future 1sts last year. 

If Chubb entered the draft and Mixon wasn't a POS this probably would've been a great draft. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

If Williams and Davis show well at their pro days then we're right back in business.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I Samuel in PPR leagues.

 

[Borden]

If Williams and Davis show well at their pro days then we're right back in business.

I'm just dipping into draft season. Haven't watched any WRs yet. 

They don't seem to be getting the hype of prior years. 

 

[Hankmoody]

In the one league I own 1.01 and no other picks, I think at this point I'll be wanting to trade down.  Fournette or Cook never were very appealing to me, so might as well trade down get someone I actually like in the mid first and maybe get another first in '18.  It's a better move for what I view as neither Fournette or Cook as a standout.  

In another league I own #1, #4, #6, #8 so there's not many options for me to even move down, and in that case I'll be taking Fournette very likely.

I was always hoping to trade down for a mint.  This is why I thought it was waaaay too early to do the Player Rankings polls, and why the 1.01 and 1.02 went waaaaaay too early in them in my opinion.  We haven't even heard the medicals yet, so it can only get worse.  I wonder where those picks go now.