1.1 rookie pick holders... (1 Viewer)

[Pots]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

So the situation is a better indicator of potential than talent?If that's the case then the Broncos might as well sign me. You can draft me with the first pick in your rookie draft.

Get real. Bush is a beast. Obviously there's some bust risk. That's true of any prospect, including all of the other RBs in the draft. That doesn't change the fact that almost everyone around the NFL would agree that Bush is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the RBs in this draft.

If you pass on that then you deserve whatever you get. It's the Arrington over Benson/Brown/Williams pick. It's the Bell over Fitzgerald pick. It's the O. Smith over LJ/McGahee pick. The same thing happens every year and people never learn.

Broncos RB (if no RBBC), Colts RB, and Carolina RB will out produce Bush on the Saints. I was never an Arrinton hyper because his line stunk and he was on a passing team. If Bush was in one of those teams, I would have him the clear #1, but he's not as of right now.

 

[Pots]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

Situations change almost constantly. Talent remains until father time comes calling.

True, but talent can go wasted a lot easier than oppertunity IMO.

 

[EBF]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

So the situation is a better indicator of potential than talent?If that's the case then the Broncos might as well sign me. You can draft me with the first pick in your rookie draft.

Get real. Bush is a beast. Obviously there's some bust risk. That's true of any prospect, including all of the other RBs in the draft. That doesn't change the fact that almost everyone around the NFL would agree that Bush is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the RBs in this draft.

If you pass on that then you deserve whatever you get. It's the Arrington over Benson/Brown/Williams pick. It's the Bell over Fitzgerald pick. It's the O. Smith over LJ/McGahee pick. The same thing happens every year and people never learn.

Broncos RB (if no RBBC), Colts RB, and Carolina RB will out produce Bush on the Saints. I was never an Arrinton hyper because his line stunk and he was on a passing team. If Bush was in one of those teams, I would have him the clear #1, but he's not as of right now.

I think you're missing the point. You don't use your 1.01 pick hoping for 1-2 good seasons. You don't want those flash in the pans like Anthony Thomas. You want a sustained contributor like LaDainian Tomlinson or Shaun Alexander. I don't doubt that Addai might outscore Bush in the short term, but I think Bush clearly offers a much greater chance to give you sustained production. Passing on him is a colossal, myopic mistake.

 

[EBF]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

Situations change almost constantly. Talent remains until father time comes calling.

True, but talent can go wasted a lot easier than oppertunity IMO.

Name a great RB in recent years who has never eventually gotten a shot at a starting role.

 

[Pots]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

Situations change almost constantly. Talent remains until father time comes calling.

True, but talent can go wasted a lot easier than oppertunity IMO.

Name a great RB in recent years who has never eventually gotten a shot at a starting role.

Starting role is not the point, starting role on an efficient running team is.

 

[Pots]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

So the situation is a better indicator of potential than talent?If that's the case then the Broncos might as well sign me. You can draft me with the first pick in your rookie draft.

Get real. Bush is a beast. Obviously there's some bust risk. That's true of any prospect, including all of the other RBs in the draft. That doesn't change the fact that almost everyone around the NFL would agree that Bush is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the RBs in this draft.

If you pass on that then you deserve whatever you get. It's the Arrington over Benson/Brown/Williams pick. It's the Bell over Fitzgerald pick. It's the O. Smith over LJ/McGahee pick. The same thing happens every year and people never learn.

Broncos RB (if no RBBC), Colts RB, and Carolina RB will out produce Bush on the Saints. I was never an Arrinton hyper because his line stunk and he was on a passing team. If Bush was in one of those teams, I would have him the clear #1, but he's not as of right now.

I think you're missing the point. You don't use your 1.01 pick hoping for 1-2 good seasons. You don't want those flash in the pans like Anthony Thomas. You want a sustained contributor like LaDainian Tomlinson or Shaun Alexander. I don't doubt that Addai might outscore Bush in the short term, but I think Bush clearly offers a much greater chance to give you sustained production. Passing on him is a colossal, myopic mistake.

No point in beating a dead horse. Just watch.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The problem with situation over talent in a dynasty is that situations change immensely from year to year in the modern day NFL.

Edgerrin James was drafted into a "bad" situation in Indy, as was Marshall Faulk. Faulk was then traded into a "bad" situation in STL. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Shaun Alexander were all drafted into situations with pro bowl running backs ahead of them. Even this past year Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams were drafted onto anemic offenses with bad offensive lines. LT was drafted into a downright awful situation in San Diego. That's pretty much 8 of the top 10 RBs in dynasty leagues right now all drafted either into bad offenses or behind pro bowl RBs.

Meanwhile, guys like JJ Arrington, Kevin Jones, etc. saw their value skyrocket because they were drafted into "good" situations.

As you can see, the problem is that in the modern day NFL "situations" can go from great to awful and awful to great overnight.

 

[EBF]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

Situations change almost constantly. Talent remains until father time comes calling.

True, but talent can go wasted a lot easier than oppertunity IMO.

Name a great RB in recent years who has never eventually gotten a shot at a starting role.

Starting role is not the point, starting role on an efficient running team is.

If that's your stance, then who's to say any of these teams will remain efficient? Maybe Manning will start getting concussions and retire. Maybe Shanahan will get fired and replaced with Mike Martz. Maybe Deuce McAllister will get hurt in a car wreck.These are all unlikely scenarios, but the point I'm making is that there's plenty of instability based on situation. What may look like a great situation one year can look horrible the next year. It happens all the time.

Things change very quickly in the NFL. Systems come and go. Supporting casts come and go. It's foolish to bet on opportunity and a perceived "friendly" system because those things typically don't have the staying power that good talent does. It all comes back to my initial point:

Good players make opportunities. Bad players squander them.

Drafting is an imperfect science. You'll never be able to perfectly predict the future, but I think betting on talent is clearly the wise move in the dynasty format. Rarely will a truly great player fail to make an impact due to situation limitations.

 

[Pots]

The only thing for certain is situations, and they usually are a better indicater of potential than talent.

Situations change almost constantly. Talent remains until father time comes calling.

True, but talent can go wasted a lot easier than oppertunity IMO.

Name a great RB in recent years who has never eventually gotten a shot at a starting role.

Starting role is not the point, starting role on an efficient running team is.

If that's your stance, then who's to say any of these teams will remain efficient? Maybe Manning will start getting concussions and retire. Maybe Shanahan will get fired and replaced with Mike Martz. Maybe Deuce McAllister will get hurt in a car wreck.These are all unlikely scenarios, but the point I'm making is that there's plenty of instability based on situation. What may look like a great situation one year can look horrible the next year. It happens all the time.

Things change very quickly in the NFL. Systems come and go. Supporting casts come and go. It's foolish to bet on opportunity and a perceived "friendly" system because those things typically don't have the staying power that good talent does. It all comes back to my initial point:

Good players make opportunities. Bad players squander them.

Drafting is an imperfect science. You'll never be able to perfectly predict the future, but I think betting on talent is clearly the wise move in the dynasty format. Rarely will a truly great player fail to make an impact due to situation limitations.

All those situations are much less likely than someone not takign advantage of their talent potential. PLus, it's always eaiser to sell production over potential.

 

[EBF]

All those situations are much less likely than someone not takign advantage of their talent potential. PLus, it's always eaiser to sell production over potential.

Could you give some examples of players not taking advantage of their talent potential?

 

[Pots]

All those situations are much less likely than someone not takign advantage of their talent potential. PLus, it's always eaiser to sell production over potential.

Could you give some examples of players not taking advantage of their talent potential?

Anyone who didn't live up to the NFL draft position? That would be quite a few.

 

[EBF]

All those situations are much less likely than someone not takign advantage of their talent potential. PLus, it's always eaiser to sell production over potential.

Could you give some examples of players not taking advantage of their talent potential?

Anyone who didn't live up to the NFL draft position? That would be quite a few.

I think the problem is that a lot of those guys never had the skills in the first place. Take someone like TJ Duckett for example. He was a first round pick, but I don't think anyone really believes he's a better RB than Clinton Portis. You can argue that it's because Portis has been given great opportunities, but I think it's simply a matter of talent.

Good players almost always produce eventually. That's my philosophy. If you draft nothing but good players then you'll be fine. Where you run into problems is when you start reaching for marginal talents. Those players tend to be phased out of the league pretty rapidly.

At least talented players in bad situations typically retain a lot of value (i.e. Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee). The same can't be said for scrubs who wasted a golden opportunity (Arrington, etc.).

 

[Pots]

All those situations are much less likely than someone not takign advantage of their talent potential. PLus, it's always eaiser to sell production over potential.

Could you give some examples of players not taking advantage of their talent potential?

Anyone who didn't live up to the NFL draft position? That would be quite a few.

I think the problem is that a lot of those guys never had the skills in the first place. Take someone like TJ Duckett for example. He was a first round pick, but I don't think anyone really believes he's a better RB than Clinton Portis. You can argue that it's because Portis has been given great opportunities, but I think it's simply a matter of talent.

Good players almost always produce eventually. That's my philosophy. If you draft nothing but good players then you'll be fine. Where you run into problems is when you start reaching for marginal talents. Those players tend to be phased out of the league pretty rapidly.

At least talented players in bad situations typically retain a lot of value (i.e. Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee). The same can't be said for scrubs who wasted a golden opportunity (Arrington, etc.).

But we're still comparing 1st round RBs, not scrubs. Arringotn IMO was never a golden situation. Just a starting situation. Addai and DeAngelo are golden situations.

 

[Longshot88]

I have the #2 pick in several leagues....If bush is taken first I am Ok with Addai...I have Faith in the Colts front office...And Addai seems a great fit ...But If They Pass on Bush ..HE is Mine

 

[UnknownCoach]

Draft is shaping up. Top 4 RBs should all be starting no later than 2007 with asimuliar path to that starting role for all 4. So about the only valuation difference IMO is their talent and the team's blocking. Of Which talent has the bigger difference.

Tier 1

1 Bush

Tier 2

2 Williams

3 Maroney

Tier 3

4 Addai

Tier 4

5 White

6 Leinhart (couldnt have gone to a better team)

7 Young (might end up running for more yards than White)

Tier 5

8 Davis

9 Cutler

?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Draft is shaping up. Top 4 RBs should all be starting no later than 2007 with asimuliar path to that starting role for all 4. So about the only valuation difference IMO is their talent and the team's blocking. Of Which talent has the bigger difference.

Tier 1

1 Bush

Tier 2

2 Williams

3 Maroney

Tier 3

4 Addai

Tier 4

5 White

6 Leinhart (couldnt have gone to a better team)

7 Young (might end up running for more yards than White)

Tier 5

8 Davis

9 Cutler

?

Agree 100% except I'd swap Maroney and Williams. Think he's the better back and is in the better situation to boot.

 

[Pots]

Draft is shaping up. Top 4 RBs should all be starting no later than 2007 with asimuliar path to that starting role for all 4. So about the only valuation difference IMO is their talent and the team's blocking. Of Which talent has the bigger difference.

Tier 1

1 Addai

2 Williams

Tier 2

3 Bush

Tier 3

4 Maroney

5 Leinhart (couldnt have gone to a better team)

Tier 4

5 White

7 Young (might end up running for more yards than White)

Tier 5

8 Davis

9 Cutler

?

 

[fruity pebbles]

Draft is shaping up. Top 4 RBs should all be starting no later than 2007 with asimuliar path to that starting role for all 4. So about the only valuation difference IMO is their talent and the team's blocking. Of Which talent has the bigger difference.

Tier 1

1 Addai

2 Williams

Tier 2

3 Bush

Tier 3

4 Maroney

5 Leinhart (couldnt have gone to a better team)

Tier 4

5 White

7 Young (might end up running for more yards than White)

Tier 5

8 Davis

9 Cutler

?

Give it up

 

[Pots]

Draft is shaping up. Top 4 RBs should all be starting no later than 2007 with asimuliar path to that starting role for all 4. So about the only valuation difference IMO is their talent and the team's blocking. Of Which talent has the bigger difference.

Tier 1

1 Addai

2 Williams

Tier 2

3 Bush

Tier 3

4 Maroney

5 Leinhart (couldnt have gone to a better team)

Tier 4

5 White

7 Young (might end up running for more yards than White)

Tier 5

8 Davis

9 Cutler

?

Give it up

All I can do is warn yall.