brewer
Footballguy
This is a spinoff of the If I were the Houston GM... thread.
In our hypothetical world, I said that I would rather have the second running back available(at 1.4) and a late first round pick than trade up for Reggie Bush. I wondered what some of the history of 1.1 vs. 1.4 was and also that of the first vs. second running back taken.
I went back to the drafts of the 1990s as a sample. This could have been done with any period but I picked the 1990s because we have a somewhat clear picture of the players involved by now and they are recent enough for most of our memories!
Anyway, here are the players from those drafts which were the first 2 running backs off the board and also the first and fourth players taken in the draft(sometimes a RB was taken at one of these spots so there are less players in those instances):
1990Pick Player Pos.1 Jeff George QB2 Blair Thomas RB4 Keith McCants DE17 Emmitt Smith RB19911 Russell Maryland DT4 Mike Croel OLB14 Leonard Russell RB21 Harvey Williams RB19921 Steve Emtman DT4 Desmond Howard WR19 Tony Smith RB21 Vaughn Dunbar RB19931 Drew Bledsoe QB3 Garrison Hearst RB4 Marvin Jones MLB10 Jerome Bettis RB19941 Dan Wilkinson DT2 Marshall Faulk RB4 Willie McGinest OLB25 Greg Hill RB19951 K-Jana Carter RB4 Michael Westbrook WR17 Tyrone Wheatley RB19961 Keyshawn Johnson WR4 Jonathan Ogden T6 Lawrence Phillips RB8 T. Biakabutuka RB19971 Orlando Pace T4 Peter Boulware OLB12 Warrick Dunn RB23 Antowain Smith RB19981 Peyton Manning QB4 Charles Woodson CB5 Curtis Enis RB9 Fred Taylor RB19991 Tim Couch QB4 Edgerrin James RB5 Ricky Williams RBSome observations. While Peyton Manning jumps off the page at #1 overall, a case can be made for the 1.4 pick being as valuable in the 90s as the 1.1.
At running back, I'm just not sure there is a clear winner. Marshall Faulk, Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James make a nice RB1 class of the 90s, but Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, Fred Taylor and Ricky Williams might even be better.
I don't have any clear conclusion here, just that the draft is an inexact science. As much as we all might think Reggie Bush is the next great thing, the reality is that the next great thing might just be the running back taken after him.
In our hypothetical world, I said that I would rather have the second running back available(at 1.4) and a late first round pick than trade up for Reggie Bush. I wondered what some of the history of 1.1 vs. 1.4 was and also that of the first vs. second running back taken.
I went back to the drafts of the 1990s as a sample. This could have been done with any period but I picked the 1990s because we have a somewhat clear picture of the players involved by now and they are recent enough for most of our memories!
Anyway, here are the players from those drafts which were the first 2 running backs off the board and also the first and fourth players taken in the draft(sometimes a RB was taken at one of these spots so there are less players in those instances):
1990Pick Player Pos.1 Jeff George QB2 Blair Thomas RB4 Keith McCants DE17 Emmitt Smith RB19911 Russell Maryland DT4 Mike Croel OLB14 Leonard Russell RB21 Harvey Williams RB19921 Steve Emtman DT4 Desmond Howard WR19 Tony Smith RB21 Vaughn Dunbar RB19931 Drew Bledsoe QB3 Garrison Hearst RB4 Marvin Jones MLB10 Jerome Bettis RB19941 Dan Wilkinson DT2 Marshall Faulk RB4 Willie McGinest OLB25 Greg Hill RB19951 K-Jana Carter RB4 Michael Westbrook WR17 Tyrone Wheatley RB19961 Keyshawn Johnson WR4 Jonathan Ogden T6 Lawrence Phillips RB8 T. Biakabutuka RB19971 Orlando Pace T4 Peter Boulware OLB12 Warrick Dunn RB23 Antowain Smith RB19981 Peyton Manning QB4 Charles Woodson CB5 Curtis Enis RB9 Fred Taylor RB19991 Tim Couch QB4 Edgerrin James RB5 Ricky Williams RBSome observations. While Peyton Manning jumps off the page at #1 overall, a case can be made for the 1.4 pick being as valuable in the 90s as the 1.1.
At running back, I'm just not sure there is a clear winner. Marshall Faulk, Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James make a nice RB1 class of the 90s, but Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, Fred Taylor and Ricky Williams might even be better.
I don't have any clear conclusion here, just that the draft is an inexact science. As much as we all might think Reggie Bush is the next great thing, the reality is that the next great thing might just be the running back taken after him.
