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10 Players That Very Few People Are Talking About (1 Viewer)

I have heard mixed reports about Bradford's deep ball. Some that seem good, some that seem bad. Where Bradford has been particularly bad is on intermediate routes, which is kind of a preference for Norv Turner. If that is not Bradford's bread and butter though, and he is better with the deep ball than the mid range throws, Charles Johnson could still do well with Bradford.
Bill Barnwell had an article in the '14 season (when he was still with the Rams) in which he noted that both Bradford's frequency and effectiveness of deep balls were among the lowest in the league. Like, almost Alex Smith bad.

I don't know to what extent he's improved on that since then but, if my eyes as an Eagles fan and/or this 2015 FO metric is anything to go on, the answer is "not much". It's a mystery to me since, unlike the popgun artists he shares company with on those tables, he has at least an average NFL arm, if not more. It's either mechanical or it's mental, and I have my doubts that it'll be his third coaching staff in as many years that finally sets him right.

 
Interesting that you brought up DJ Foster. Saw him in some pre season games and he seemed to just 'have it'. Passed the eye ball test, and had been in the back of my mind for what Sig calls 'waiver speed dial' if the situation arose.

Like the call of McDonald as well. Just scooped him up off of waivers to pair with Bennett. Didn't watch any 9ers pre season but apparently Gabbert was just locking in on him almost every time he passed.

 
Bill Barnwell had an article in the '14 season (when he was still with the Rams) in which he noted that both Bradford's frequency and effectiveness of deep balls were among the lowest in the league. Like, almost Alex Smith bad.

I don't know to what extent he's improved on that since then but, if my eyes as an Eagles fan and/or this 2015 FO metric is anything to go on, the answer is "not much". It's a mystery to me since, unlike the popgun artists he shares company with on those tables, he has at least an average NFL arm, if not more. It's either mechanical or it's mental, and I have my doubts that it'll be his third coaching staff in as many years that finally sets him right.
Yeah those would be some examples of bad.

Cian Fahey charted Bradfords throws and the deep ball numbers looked good. So there is the mixed bag.

The intermediate passes were compared to Bridgewater and Sam hasn't been as good at this depth of target as Teddy.

With Bradford I think his issues are mental more than anything else. He has the physicals tools to be a good to great QB, I just don't think he reads defenses as well as other starting QBs do.

Some visual examples of Bradford on deep throws.

Sorry for talking about Bradford in a players not being talked about much thread. All of this is pointed at Charles Johnson, who has been under the radar.

 
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Chris Johnson ARI RB

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: RB55, 179th overall
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: RB57, 184th overall

Average FBG Staff Ranking:RB60 (0 PPR), RB60 (1 PPR)
Average FBG Projection: 500 ys,2 total TD (average of 4 FBG staff projections)

I'm sure I will catch grief over this one, as so many people are in love with David Johnson that they are already molding his bust for a place in Canton. I don't really feel like repeating myself after multiple discussions on David Johnson this off season. To summarize, yes he flashed great talent at the end of last season, but his reception rate, yards per reception, and TD scoring percentage were so good that they pretty much are not repeatable across an entire season. He was so good in such a short time frame that he only had double digit carries in 4 regular season games and 2 post season games. Talented, yes, but not a lengthy track record (the knock on some other top RB this year).

I am not down on David Johnson per say, but he greatly benefited to Chris Johnson getting hurt and being the only healthy and established RB available down the stretch. So to summarize, he got almost all the RB looks cause there weren't really any other options.

Last year, the ARI RB corps amassed a total of 410 carries and 60 receptions. If the Cardinals are as good as people say, I expect both of those totals to go up. In theory, being ahead most games should cause the Cards to want to run out the clock in the second half. I doubt they will turn to David Johnson to do that (why risk an injury).

If David Johnson is healthy, I expect Chris Johnson to get 8 carries a game with a couple of games of 10-12 carries in blowouts. With no one else to turn to last season at the end of the year, David Johnson only averaged 17 carries a game in his games as a starter. I would expect David Johnson averages in the 14-15 carry range (with a lot of receptions). I would project ARI with 40 more rushing attempts this year. I would project David Johnson for 225-240 carries if healthy. If the Cards do get those 40 extra rushing attempts, that would leave 210-235 carries unaccounted for.

Chris Johnson showed last year he could still be effective, as he ranked as the #14 RB through Week 10 before he got hurt.Bear that in mind should David Johnson miss any time. Bottom line, Chris Johnson would be a legit fantasy starter if David Johnson were out, and Chris Johnson could still potentially put up RB3 or flex numbers some weeks.

 
In leagues I own DJ I was able to get Chris Johnson for nothing, his adp can't be lower. In a 200 player league I took him as my third to last pick, in an auction league I got him for the minimum as he wasn't nominated till the dollar rounds.

One of the few handcuffs I think is required for the above listed reasons.

 
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Jared Cook is getting NO love from anyone...and I really don't get way...he's in the perfect offense for him, with the best QB in the league. he will be a HUGE redzone threat. I will predict he's a top 3-4 TE this year. 8-10 TD's.

 
Jared Cook is getting NO love from anyone...and I really don't get way...he's in the perfect offense for him, with the best QB in the league. he will be a HUGE redzone threat. I will predict he's a top 3-4 TE this year. 8-10 TD's.
I unfortunately draft with a bunch of Packer homers, so no Cook bargain rates here.  Did help me sneak McDonald in cheap.

 
I am seeing next to nothing on Steve Smith and was unable to see him in the preseason... any insight?

 
Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: Undrafted
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: Undrafted 


Average FBG Staff Ranking: Unranked
Average FBG Projection: 36-396-3 (average of 4 FBG staff projections)


This one admittedly is a reach and is more a byproduct of statistical forensics analysis. IMO, someone on the Jets is likely lurking in obscurity, and I concluded the most likeliest candidate is Enunwa.

For starters, the Jets got nothing out of their TE position last year in terms of receiving production. And by nothing, I mean a grand total of 8 receptions over the entire season. Some people had hopes that Amaro would break through, but he is gone, as is Cumberland.

Last year, Marshall and Decker were the best fantasy scoring WR duo in the league. Between the two of them, they saw 305 targets. Realistically, how likely are they to improve on their performances from last year? It's more likely they take a step back, and it's probably a safe bet to take the under for them scoring a combined 26 TDs again.

The Jets had a lot of turnover in their offensive skill players beyond Marshall and Decker, and 150 targets and nearly 100 receptions are left unaccounted for after the personnel changes. Let's give 60 receptions to Forte (he could get more, but let's go with that). FBG's projections have the Marshall/Decker combo losing 20-25 receptions compared to last season. 100 + 25 = 125 – 60 = 65 receptions left over. However, the Jets face a pretty tough schedule, especially to start the season. That could mean more passing attempts if they get behind. With Marshall, Decker, and Forte/Powell demanding more attention, Enunwa could see dump offs that tight ends would normally see.

Enunwa put up a modest 22-315-0 line last year, but he should see an increase in snaps as their WR3 working out of the slot. He saw 46 targets in 2015 in sporadic use, and with more playing time, more targets, and more routes in the middle of the field, he could carve out a decent sized role. Probably not a huge factor in smaller or regular sized leagues, but someone that might be a decent pick up in larger PPR leagues where WR depth is hard to find.

 
I just said this in the 9ers thread. Something has to happen in this offense, and not all bad. And Gabbert had some zip on the ball IMO, he seemed better than the jailbreak Gabbert from Jax.
Man, I hope you and Anarchy are right. We just wrapped up MBSL1 over in the Mock Drafts forum and somehow I wound up with not just Yo Gabba Gabbert but also Torrey Smith and Jeremy Kerley ...  :loco:

 
Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: Undrafted
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: Undrafted 


Average FBG Staff Ranking: Unranked
Average FBG Projection: 36-396-3 (average of 4 FBG staff projections)


This one admittedly is a reach and is more a byproduct of statistical forensics analysis. IMO, someone on the Jets is likely lurking in obscurity, and I concluded the most likeliest candidate is Enunwa.

For starters, the Jets got nothing out of their TE position last year in terms of receiving production. And by nothing, I mean a grand total of 8 receptions over the entire season. Some people had hopes that Amaro would break through, but he is gone, as is Cumberland.

Last year, Marshall and Decker were the best fantasy scoring WR duo in the league. Between the two of them, they saw 305 targets. Realistically, how likely are they to improve on their performances from last year? It's more likely they take a step back, and it's probably a safe bet to take the under for them scoring a combined 26 TDs again.

The Jets had a lot of turnover in their offensive skill players beyond Marshall and Decker, and 150 targets and nearly 100 receptions are left unaccounted for after the personnel changes. Let's give 60 receptions to Forte (he could get more, but let's go with that). FBG's projections have the Marshall/Decker combo losing 20-25 receptions compared to last season. 100 + 25 = 125 – 60 = 65 receptions left over. However, the Jets face a pretty tough schedule, especially to start the season. That could mean more passing attempts if they get behind. With Marshall, Decker, and Forte/Powell demanding more attention, Enunwa could see dump offs that tight ends would normally see.

Enunwa put up a modest 22-315-0 line last year, but he should see an increase in snaps as their WR3 working out of the slot. He saw 46 targets in 2015 in sporadic use, and with more playing time, more targets, and more routes in the middle of the field, he could carve out a decent sized role. Probably not a huge factor in smaller or regular sized leagues, but someone that might be a decent pick up in larger PPR leagues where WR depth is hard to find.
If anything this shows your ability to be objective so kudos to you.  I like Enunwa a lot as a Jets fan and would love to see him get more usage, but I think it only happens with an injury to Marshall, Decker, Forte or Powell.  Last year Fitz targeted RB's 120 times.  I expect that to be consistent this year or maybe a little higher.  Marshall and Decker are an easy 300+ combined targets if healthy.  Fitz threw 600 times last year.  I don't have any history with Bowles/Fitz to know for sure, but that seems high for the Jets that I'm used to watching.  I think we run a little more this year and ride our defense a little more so I expect a reduction in pass attempts.  

I'm going to guess there are about 120-150 targets left for TE and other WR's.  I can't see Enunwa getting much more than 50-60 of those targets which would put him about the same as last year.  I would love to see an increased role for him, but I don't think there is room for it this year.  

That said, thanks for making this thread.  I've enjoyed reading all of your write ups and you sold me on DJ Foster as well.

 
There really isn't much to go on as far as Bowles, seeing how he was a defensive coordinator. Gailey is the better choice to review tendencies. Generally speaking, over the years he has relied more on the run than the pass, at least early in his career. As the game has evolved to more ball movement through the air, his team rankings have started moving to more passing. Team passing attempt rankings as an OC or HC . . .

1989 DEN 22
1990 DEN 12
1996 PIT 30
1997 PIT 26
1998 DAL 26
1999 DAL 26
2000 MIA 31
2001 MIA 19
2008 KCC 9
2010 BUF 19
2011 BUF 10
2012 BUF 23
2015 NYJ 15

 
matuski said:
I am seeing next to nothing on Steve Smith and was unable to see him in the preseason... any insight?
Smith is ranked too high IMO to be a true late, late sleeper and be considered in the context of this thread. I had suggested months ago that he would be a decent pick up as people had forgotten about him (I own him on several teams). I know the Ravens receiving corps is really hard to get a handle on right now, but IMO he is worth the risk going as WR53 based on how well he was doing last year before he got hurt. He's old and coming off a major injury, but he's tough and still has something to prove. He's pretty much a lottery ticket, and if he looks old and slow and doesn't do all that much early in the season, move on to someone else.

 
One of the names that I wouldn't be surprised to see on this list is Jay Cutler.   I could actually see him being a middle of the pack fantasy qb that can be gotten for next to nothing.  If you play in a 14,16+ team league--or a 2 qb league--I think he could be one of the better values out there.  

 
One of the names that I wouldn't be surprised to see on this list is Jay Cutler.   I could actually see him being a middle of the pack fantasy qb that can be gotten for next to nothing.  If you play in a 14,16+ team league--or a 2 qb league--I think he could be one of the better values out there.  
Meh. I'm not a huge fan of Cutler. I've had him as a back up several times, and when forced to play him he was very ho hum. Even as a guy you can get in the 180-190 pick range, we sort of know who he is by now. He's not horrible, but I think his upside is limited. For starters, he seems to get hurt along the way pretty much every year. He's missed time the past 6 years. On a fantasy ppg basis, since coming to CHI (last year listed first), he's ranked 25, 10, 21, 23, 18, 18, 13 among QBs that played in at least 8 games. That's probably ok for a back up, but if you have to play him in a start 1 QB league you will be losing points at the QB position.

The same goes for another QB getting talked up as a possible sleeper in Joe Flacco. Until last year, he was in the line up every day and has played lights out in the post season. The problem is, he's been mediocre in the regular season. Since coming into the league, his fantasy ppg rankings have been (last year listed first) 20, 16, 23, 18, 19, 19, 19. Again, this looks like a case of we know what he is by now. He might do a little bit better this year, but he appears to be a middle of the road fantasy back up.

 
Meh. I'm not a huge fan of Cutler. I've had him as a back up several times, and when forced to play him he was very ho hum. Even as a guy you can get in the 180-190 pick range, we sort of know who he is by now. He's not horrible, but I think his upside is limited. For starters, he seems to get hurt along the way pretty much every year. He's missed time the past 6 years. On a fantasy ppg basis, since coming to CHI (last year listed first), he's ranked 25, 10, 21, 23, 18, 18, 13 among QBs that played in at least 8 games. That's probably ok for a back up, but if you have to play him in a start 1 QB league you will be losing points at the QB position.
Heh ... I was halfway through a response that basically said exactly what you wrote here.

Except in a very narrow subset of league formats, I have no interest in drafting a QB2 whose fantasy upside is "middle of the pack". If I'm waiting into the QB25-30 range where Cutler's priced, give me a guy with top-10 upside potential (RG3 is the obvious name here, but he's been far too widely discussed to make this list IMO; alternatively someone like Tannehill or even Wentz) every day of the week, even if they carry higher bust risk.

 
Jared Cook is getting NO love from anyone...and I really don't get way...he's in the perfect offense for him, with the best QB in the league. he will be a HUGE redzone threat. I will predict he's a top 3-4 TE this year. 8-10 TD's.


Because he is and always has been bad. Cant run routes, can't catch the on target balls, gives up on every other play.


He's never played on a good team with a good Quarterback before either....just watch...top 3-4 TE this year...book it!
The collective love-fest for Cook has been amazing to me.  He's been pegged as a "breakout" candidate since 2010.  Yes, he's big and athletic.  But, as noted by Run It Up, he lacks the skills typically covetted in WRs:  he can't/won't run a route properly, his hands suck, and he's shockingly unwilling/unable to go get 50/50 balls given his size.  Back in 2012 I bought into the "this is the year" talk.  I bought into it again when he went to the Rams ("Fisher knows what he is and was willing to sign him to a big contract, he must have something.").  Never again.  We now have 7 years of data to review -- absolutely none of it suggests that Cook is actually any good at being a receiving TE in the NFL.

And the guy has absolutely no self-awareness.  He seriously demanded that the Titans franchise him as a WR, not a TE.  Not even the completely and utterly incompetent Titans 2013 front office thought that was a good idea.  His self-delusion is breathtaking.

If the guy suddenly changes everything we've seen over the last 7 years and becomes a stud, more power to him and his owners.  I'm very comfortable with my assessment of what he is based on 7 years of observations.

 
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Anquan Boldin DET WR

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: WR68, 204th overall
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: WR71, 204th overall

Average FBG Staff Ranking: WR69 (0 PPR), WR64 (1 PPR)
Average FBG Projection: 42-502-4 (average of 4 FBG staff projections)

Yes, he's on the last hole of the back nine, but he got this far by being big and strong, not fast and shifty. Here's a stat that might turn some people's heads:

Larry Fitzgerald: 186 games played, 13,429 yards from scrimmage
Anquan Boldin, 186 games played, 13,424 yards from scrimmage

In Boldin's 3 seasons in SFO, the Niners averaged 477 passing attempts per year. The Lions over the past 3 years averaged 623 passing attempts (31% more). Megatron and some others are gone or injured, leaving 235 targets unaccounted for from last year. They have to go somewhere, and I doubt they are all going to Marvin Jones (who I don't totally trust despite some glowing reviews in training camp). Do they even have a healthy TE these days?

In 13 seasons, Boldin has had 100 targets in 12 of them . . . and the other season he had 99 targets playing in only 12 games.
In 13 seasons, Boldin has ranked in the Top 50 WR in12 of them . . . and the other season and ranked 59th in only 10 games played.

Boldin played for Jim Caldwell as the OC in BAL in 2012 Baltimore and posted a 65-921-4 season.

Under Caldwell in Indianapolis, Austin Collie was the Colts WR3 and averaged 57-613-5 in Caldwell's 3 years as HC. That would have ranked in the mid-40s in standard and PPR scoring last year.

Add everything up, and I think there is a disconnect to an ADP of 68 or 71 for Boldin. With Megatron gone, it will be interesting to see how the offense changes.
 
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Based on what, exactly?
For starters, he hasn't really been used as a heavy carry RB. He's had double digit carries only twice in 31 career games.

But since you asked . . . career numbers running the football:

Wide right: 5.2 ypc
Right: 5.2 ypc
Middle 3.6 ypc
Left: 8.5 ypc
Wide left: 4.5 ypc

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/24936/situational/?season=career

Not a huge sample size, and maybe he could do well if asked to pound the ball up the middle. But so far he's been more of a situational back then anything else.

 
For starters, he hasn't really been used as a heavy carry RB. He's had double digit carries only twice in 31 career games.

But since you asked . . . career numbers running the football:

Wide right: 5.2 ypc
Right: 5.2 ypc
Middle 3.6 ypc
Left: 8.5 ypc
Wide left: 4.5 ypc

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/24936/situational/?season=career

Not a huge sample size, and maybe he could do well if asked to pound the ball up the middle. But so far he's been more of a situational back then anything else.
So by "run inside" you meant specifically up the middle? Because another interpretation of "run inside" is between the tackles. His career average between the tackles is 4.74 ypc. Meanwhile, he averaged 5.3 ypc on 544 carries at Pitt; I don't know where to find directional splits for college stats, but I doubt he would have gotten 544 carries if he couldn't "run well inside."

Foster also averaged 5.3 ypc in college, on 444 carries. And he was so good as a runner that... his team moved him to WR for his senior season.

The point of my question is that your post claims that Foster is better at running inside than Lewis, and I'm not aware there is any actual evidence to support that position.

 
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Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: Undrafted
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: Undrafted 


Average FBG Staff Ranking: Unranked
Average FBG Projection: 36-396-3 (average of 4 FBG staff projections)


This one admittedly is a reach and is more a byproduct of statistical forensics analysis. IMO, someone on the Jets is likely lurking in obscurity, and I concluded the most likeliest candidate is Enunwa.

For starters, the Jets got nothing out of their TE position last year in terms of receiving production. And by nothing, I mean a grand total of 8 receptions over the entire season. Some people had hopes that Amaro would break through, but he is gone, as is Cumberland.

Last year, Marshall and Decker were the best fantasy scoring WR duo in the league. Between the two of them, they saw 305 targets. Realistically, how likely are they to improve on their performances from last year? It's more likely they take a step back, and it's probably a safe bet to take the under for them scoring a combined 26 TDs again.

The Jets had a lot of turnover in their offensive skill players beyond Marshall and Decker, and 150 targets and nearly 100 receptions are left unaccounted for after the personnel changes. Let's give 60 receptions to Forte (he could get more, but let's go with that). FBG's projections have the Marshall/Decker combo losing 20-25 receptions compared to last season. 100 + 25 = 125 – 60 = 65 receptions left over. However, the Jets face a pretty tough schedule, especially to start the season. That could mean more passing attempts if they get behind. With Marshall, Decker, and Forte/Powell demanding more attention, Enunwa could see dump offs that tight ends would normally see.

Enunwa put up a modest 22-315-0 line last year, but he should see an increase in snaps as their WR3 working out of the slot. He saw 46 targets in 2015 in sporadic use, and with more playing time, more targets, and more routes in the middle of the field, he could carve out a decent sized role. Probably not a huge factor in smaller or regular sized leagues, but someone that might be a decent pick up in larger PPR leagues where WR depth is hard to find.
This is my guy, as well-and for basically the same reasons.   Here's to hoping we're both correct. :banned:

 
So by "run inside" you meant specifically up the middle? Because another interpretation of "run inside" is between the tackles. His career average between the tackles is 4.74 ypc. Meanwhile, he averaged 5.3 ypc on 544 carries at Pitt; I don't know where to find directional splits for college stats, but I doubt he would have gotten 544 carries if he couldn't "run well inside."

Foster also averaged 5.3 ypc in college, on 444 carries. And he was so good as a runner that his team moved him to WR for his senior season.

The point of my question is that your post claims that Foster is better at running inside than Lewis, and I'm not aware there is any actual evidence to support that position.
Clearly we have no idea what Foster can or cannot do as he hasn't had a chance to do it yet at the NFL level. As for Lewis, IMO, part of the reason he has a decent ypc average is that he has not been a heavy carry back and hasn't had to pound the ball into the line very often.

We don't know much about Lewis really either, as he's only had 85 career carries over 3 years with a high of 49 last season. What we do know is that NE did not appear to want to use him as a heavy carry back.

 
Clearly we have no idea what Foster can or cannot do as he hasn't had a chance to do it yet at the NFL level. As for Lewis, IMO, part of the reason he has a decent ypc average is that he has not been a heavy carry back and hasn't had to pound the ball into the line very often.

We don't know much about Lewis really either, as he's only had 85 career carries over 3 years with a high of 49 last season. What we do know is that NE did not appear to want to use him as a heavy carry back.
That's all fine, it's just not what you said in your post. Had you instead said these things, I wouldn't have questioned.

I like the thread, though. :thumbup:

 
Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR

For starters, the Jets got nothing out of their TE position last year in terms of receiving production. And by nothing, I mean a grand total of 8 receptions over the entire season. Some people had hopes that Amaro would break through, but he is gone, as is Cumberland.
Interestingly enough after Amaro and Suddfeld were released the Jets were left with only 1 TE on their roster Kellen Davis (who is really just a blocker). I believe they did pick up two castoffs from waivers but the speculation was that Enunwa would become a pseudo-TE given his size and the lack of TEs on the roster.

He looked pretty good before getting hurt this preseason as a target in the middle of the field. With Fitzpatrick (for better and for worse) being a guy that will put the ball up for grabs and let his big bodied WRs fight for it, this could be a real good call.

 
Meh. I'm not a huge fan of Cutler. I've had him as a back up several times, and when forced to play him he was very ho hum. Even as a guy you can get in the 180-190 pick range, we sort of know who he is by now. He's not horrible, but I think his upside is limited. For starters, he seems to get hurt along the way pretty much every year. He's missed time the past 6 years. On a fantasy ppg basis, since coming to CHI (last year listed first), he's ranked 25, 10, 21, 23, 18, 18, 13 among QBs that played in at least 8 games. That's probably ok for a back up, but if you have to play him in a start 1 QB league you will be losing points at the QB position.

The same goes for another QB getting talked up as a possible sleeper in Joe Flacco. Until last year, he was in the line up every day and has played lights out in the post season. The problem is, he's been mediocre in the regular season. Since coming into the league, his fantasy ppg rankings have been (last year listed first) 20, 16, 23, 18, 19, 19, 19. Again, this looks like a case of we know what he is by now. He might do a little bit better this year, but he appears to be a middle of the road fantasy back up.
While I pretty much agree with you---my point of view is this.   According to fantasy pros ADP--his average draft position is 205--and he's the 28th fantasy qb coming off the board on average.   To put that in perspective---if you were to look at his last 3 fantasy seasons -- according to fantasydata  --he's ranked as the 20th highest scoring qb in 2015 (even though he missed a game), 14th highest scoring qb in 2014 (he played every game), and the 23rd ranked qb in 2013 (even though he missed FIVE games).  If you were to take an average--that means over the past 3 seasons--his average fantasy season approximately makes him the 19th best qb on average--with him missing an average of 2 games per season.  If you assume full health and that he doesn't miss any games--his average would be much better.   Current ADP for the 19th qb coming off the board this season is Matt Ryan at 140 followed by Dak at 153 according to fantasy pros.   To me this means that Cutlers current ADP easily puts him 4-5 rounds below what his actual average production dictates he should be.  On top of that--I personally think Cutler is primed to improve upon what he's done last season.  I could easily see him being the 16th-17th best fantasy qb this season--which would make him a steal at his ADP.    Yes--he's a "meh" player--but my point is that even a below average hamburger has a way of tasting better when it's given to you for free.  

 
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While I pretty much agree with you---my point of view is this.   According to fantasy pros ADP--his average draft position is 205--and he's the 28th fantasy qb coming off the board on average.   To put that in perspective---if you were to look at his last 3 fantasy seasons -- according to fantasydata  --he's ranked as the 20th highest scoring qb in 2015 (even though he missed a game), 14th highest scoring qb in 2014 (he played every game), and the 23rd ranked qb in 2013 (even though he missed FIVE games).  If you were to take an average--that means over the past 3 seasons--his average fantasy season approximately makes him the 19th best qb on average--with him missing an average of 2 games per season.  If you assume full health and that he doesn't miss any games--his average would be much better.   Current ADP for the 19th qb coming off the board this season is Matt Ryan at 140 followed by Dak at 153 according to fantasy pros.   To me this means that Cutlers current ADP easily puts him 4-5 rounds below what his actual average production dictates he should be.  On top of that--I personally think Cutler is primed to improve upon what he's done last season.  I could easily see him being the 16th-17th best fantasy qb this season--which would make him a steal at his ADP.    Yes--he's a "meh" player--but my point is that even a below average hamburger has a way of tasting better when it's given to you for free.  
All of that is true. But no one, and I mean no one, can have bad games like Cutler's bad games. I've owned the guy in the first past and you just can't rely on him. He can (and will) have games you simply cannot overcome to win. I'd rather go with a WW pick-up of literally any other starting QB for a spot start than him. That's the wrong call most of the time, but I guarantee you that you're giving yourself a better floor. He can be (and icassionally is) so bad that he undermines my confidence in my ultra-cheap Alahon hold. 

 
That's all fine, it's just not what you said in your post. Had you instead said these things, I wouldn't have questioned.

I like the thread, though. :thumbup:
You guys really have me thinking me about Foster. He looked fantastic this pre-season and they really seem to like this kid. In a non-ppr dynasty league, would I be crazy to drop Lewis for Foster? I believe he's more talented than White, but not sure if he will get an opportunity, unless someone gets hurt 

 
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Don't have much to add except it's really cool that the OP took the time to put this together.  A great read and really helpful.

 
While I pretty much agree with you---my point of view is this.   According to fantasy pros ADP--his average draft position is 205--and he's the 28th fantasy qb coming off the board on average.   To put that in perspective---if you were to look at his last 3 fantasy seasons -- according to fantasydata  --he's ranked as the 20th highest scoring qb in 2015 (even though he missed a game), 14th highest scoring qb in 2014 (he played every game), and the 23rd ranked qb in 2013 (even though he missed FIVE games).  If you were to take an average--that means over the past 3 seasons--his average fantasy season approximately makes him the 19th best qb on average--with him missing an average of 2 games per season.  If you assume full health and that he doesn't miss any games--his average would be much better.   Current ADP for the 19th qb coming off the board this season is Matt Ryan at 140 followed by Dak at 153 according to fantasy pros.   To me this means that Cutlers current ADP easily puts him 4-5 rounds below what his actual average production dictates he should be.  On top of that--I personally think Cutler is primed to improve upon what he's done last season.  I could easily see him being the 16th-17th best fantasy qb this season--which would make him a steal at his ADP.    Yes--he's a "meh" player--but my point is that even a below average hamburger has a way of tasting better when it's given to you for free.  
IMO your analysis is flawed because you are looking at total points. Yes, Cutler was #20 in 2015 in total points, but he was #27 in ppg. Any team forced to start him was getting production that was well below average. 2014 and previous seasons don't matter much because 2015 was John Fox's first year as HC.

Even if you think he will improve some upon last season, that still leaves him below average. I don't want below average players in my lineup, no matter how cheap.

Once a draft gets beyond the quality players at a given position, I make my picks based on upside potential. Cutler has none, so I would never draft him.

 
You guys really have me thinking me about Foster. He looked fantastic this pre-season and they really seem to like this kid. In a non-ppr dynasty league, would I be crazy to drop Lewis for Foster? I believe he's more talented than White, but not sure if he will get an opportunity, unless someone gets hurt 
I wouldn't do that. YMMV.

 
You guys really have me thinking me about Foster. He looked fantastic this pre-season and they really seem to like this kid. In a non-ppr dynasty league, would I be crazy to drop Lewis for Foster? I believe he's more talented than White, but not sure if he will get an opportunity, unless someone gets hurt 
What did he do that looked fantastic?

I only saw a few plays of his, but based on those plays I would describe him as ok not fantastic. Certainly possible there were fantastic plays he made that I didn't see.

The main argument against White is that he is pretty average in most ways and maybe below average as a runner. While Foster is more of an unknown, that leaves open the possibility of him being better than White, I just haven't seen anything that makes me think he is better than White yet.

 
I mentioned this in another thread as a great sleeper who is going very late in drafts -- Eric Ebron. He caught at least 5 passes in 10 out of 16 games last year including all of the final four and no longer has competition from Calvin Johnson. We all know that Detroit is going to sling the ball around and he seems like a great bargain in the double digit rounds.

 
I mentioned this in another thread as a great sleeper who is going very late in drafts -- Eric Ebron. He caught at least 5 passes in 10 out of 16 games last year including all of the final four and no longer has competition from Calvin Johnson. We all know that Detroit is going to sling the ball around and he seems like a great bargain in the double digit rounds.
I like this call as well and drafted him in one league.  However the presence of both Boldin and Jones in the end zone will take some of his opportunities away

 
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Melvin Gordon is often overlooked and forgotten about, but will be a stone cold lock for top 8 RB production this season..ok they start with the Chiefs a tough matchup indeed.then they play jax indy saints  falcons dolphins raiders titans browns bucs texans.of course denver x2 and chiefs x2..

Im saying trade for him now before games v jax colts saints..he looked electric in preseason and fast as hell.hey if Devonte Freeman can be a stud after failing in 2014 so can Gordon.

 
Well, five minutes into the season and Enunwa looks like a good call.  Of course he might not score another TD the rest of the year. 

 
Well, five minutes into the season and Enunwa looks like a good call.  Of course he might not score another TD the rest of the year. 
So far your assessment of his usage has been much better than mine.  I hope it continues, only with Decker also a bit more involved.  

 
Quincy Enunwa NYJ WR

ADP 0 PPR Leagues: Undrafted
ADP 1 PPR Leagues: Undrafted 


Average FBG Staff Ranking: Unranked
Average FBG Projection: 36-396-3 (average of 4 FBG staff projections)


This one admittedly is a reach and is more a byproduct of statistical forensics analysis. IMO, someone on the Jets is likely lurking in obscurity, and I concluded the most likeliest candidate is Enunwa.

For starters, the Jets got nothing out of their TE position last year in terms of receiving production. And by nothing, I mean a grand total of 8 receptions over the entire season. Some people had hopes that Amaro would break through, but he is gone, as is Cumberland.

Last year, Marshall and Decker were the best fantasy scoring WR duo in the league. Between the two of them, they saw 305 targets. Realistically, how likely are they to improve on their performances from last year? It's more likely they take a step back, and it's probably a safe bet to take the under for them scoring a combined 26 TDs again.

The Jets had a lot of turnover in their offensive skill players beyond Marshall and Decker, and 150 targets and nearly 100 receptions are left unaccounted for after the personnel changes. Let's give 60 receptions to Forte (he could get more, but let's go with that). FBG's projections have the Marshall/Decker combo losing 20-25 receptions compared to last season. 100 + 25 = 125 – 60 = 65 receptions left over. However, the Jets face a pretty tough schedule, especially to start the season. That could mean more passing attempts if they get behind. With Marshall, Decker, and Forte/Powell demanding more attention, Enunwa could see dump offs that tight ends would normally see.

Enunwa put up a modest 22-315-0 line last year, but he should see an increase in snaps as their WR3 working out of the slot. He saw 46 targets in 2015 in sporadic use, and with more playing time, more targets, and more routes in the middle of the field, he could carve out a decent sized role. Probably not a huge factor in smaller or regular sized leagues, but someone that might be a decent pick up in larger PPR leagues where WR depth is hard to find.
comng back to give props to Anarchy.  Great call on Enunwa.  Even as a long time Jets fan I didnt see the opportunity for him to fully break out.  nice call

Dr. Octopus, another long time Jets fan, also called this earlier in the year as a possible breakout so props to him as well. 

 
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