100+ Games in - Pick the Cy Young, AL Edition (1 Viewer)

[wilked]

Listed alphabetically

I don't see anyone else with a better than 10% shot

 

[Alias]

Washburn has put up some great stats for an 8-6 pitcher, 2nd worst run support (4.94) out of AL Pitchers with 120+ IP

RS rankings for AL Pitchers w/ 120+ IP

(worst first)

1 Greinke 10-7 (4.43)

2 Washburn 8-6 (4.94)

9 Hernandez 12-4 (6.14)

10 Halladay 11-4 (6.45)

14 Verlander 12-5 (6.87)

17 Beckett 13-4 (7.11)

 

[Greco]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

 

[Oh Yes!]

Beckett gets alot of run support. He deserves it

 

[Finless]

Beckett walks away with this

 

[Alias]

# of games based on IP

Beckett  Verlander	 Greinke	Hernandez	 Halladay	   WashburnCG	 2		 3			 4		  1			 5			 17+	13		12			12		 15			18			116+	20		17			19		 18			19			18<6	 2		 5			 3		  4			 1			 2

 

[whoknew]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Why not?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Why not?

Because he doesn't play for the Red Sox or Yankees. You know the rules. ETA: Seriously though, this award will be decided in September. I think any of those guys has a shot.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

 

[guru_007]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.I think Greinke may be the most deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Beckett win it. Beckett has been dominating this year, and his team is 16-5 in games he has started, best in the league. Plus Beckett pitches in the toughest division.I'd say Greinke wins, followed by Beckett/Halladay

 

[Ghost Rider]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.

Beckett has more strikeouts, but Jackson has a significantly better ERA (0.63 better). Their WHIPs are the same. Beckett's superior W/L record is largely irrelevant, since he gets a lot more run support (only three times in the AL have scored less runs than Detroit). Jackson has had five games this year where he pitched 6 innings or more, gave up 2 runs or less, and got a loss or no-decision.Beckett simply has more name recognition, and while he has had a very good year, he really shouldn't be a top 3 Cy Young candidate right now, unless you really think W/L is more important than ERA.

 

[Alias]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.

Beckett has more strikeouts, but Jackson has a significantly better ERA (0.63 better). Their WHIPs are the same. Beckett's superior W/L record is largely irrelevant, since he gets a lot more run support (only three times in the AL have scored less runs than Detroit). Jackson has had five games this year where he pitched 6 innings or more, gave up 2 runs or less, and got a loss or no-decision.Beckett simply has more name recognition, and while he has had a very good year, he really shouldn't be a top 3 Cy Young candidate right now, unless you really think W/L is more important than ERA.

FIP - Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale3.03 Beckett3.84 JacksonBeckett has gone deeper in more games (IP per game sorted by IP):

EJ   JB4	4.25	55	66	66	66	66	66.1  66.1  6.27	77	77	77	77	77	77	77.1  7.27.2  88	88	99	9

 

[guru_007]

[quote name='Ghost Rider' date='Aug 4 2009, 02:18 PM' post='10622130

Beckett has more strikeouts, but Jackson has a significantly better ERA (0.63 better). Their WHIPs are the same. Beckett's superior W/L record is largely irrelevant, since he gets a lot more run support (only three times in the AL have scored less runs than Detroit). Jackson has had five games this year where he pitched 6 innings or more, gave up 2 runs or less, and got a loss or no-decision.

Beckett simply has more name recognition, and while he has had a very good year, he really shouldn't be a top 3 Cy Young candidate right now, unless you really think W/L is more important than ERA.

I'll have to strongly disagree with you that Beckett is not a top 3 Cy Young candidate.

Again, Jackson has a better ERA, sure - but you are not taking into account ball park or division strength.

I'm not sure if you've followed Cy Young voting in the past, but w/l record does play a small factor. And the fact that Beckett's team is winning at > 75% when he takes the mound, you just can't discount that.

Oh, and let's come and revisit this mid September.

 

[Masked Vigilante]

He won't win, but I'd like to give King Felix some love. He has only given up more than 3 ER once in his past 13 starts. Grienke likely won't have enough wins to merit strong consideration. Beckett will probably hit 20 wins but Halladay will still win it.

 

[Ghost Rider]

FIP - Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale3.03 Beckett3.84 Jackson

Can I go find some obscure stat where Jackson is better?

Beckett has gone deeper in more games (IP per game sorted by IP):

Beckett has pitched 3 1/3 more innings than Jackson. Both have started 21 games. That means Beckett has faced no more than about a half of a batter more per game than Jackson. Bravo!

I'll have to strongly disagree with you that Beckett is not a top 3 Cy Young candidate.Again, Jackson has a better ERA, sure - but you are not taking into account ball park or division strength.I'm not sure if you've followed Cy Young voting in the past, but w/l record does play a small factor. And the fact that Beckett's team is winning at > 75% when he takes the mound, you just can't discount that. Oh, and let's come and revisit this mid September.

Voters usually give W/L record more credence than they should, for sure. Beckett's team is winning 75% of the time he starts, okay, but he gets ridiculous run support, especially compared to Jackson In the games Beckett has started, the Red Sox have scored 113 runs/5.38 runs per game. In the games Jackson has started, the Tigers have scored 80 runs/3.81 runs per game. Wonder what Jackson's record would be if he got the kind of run support Beckett does. Yes, ball park is a factor, but that is almost impossible to objectively compare. Beckett obviously faces the tougher offensive division, but only eight of his 21 starts have been against the AL East, and three of those were against the offensively-challenged O's, so let's not act like Beckett is winning all of these games against those tough AL East offenses. If the season ended right now, with his W/L record, Jackson would have no chance of winning, but Beckett shouldn't, either. Remember, my argument was not that Jackson should win; it was that Jackson, right now, is more deserving than Beckett, which he is, unless you honestly think that the Red Sox having a much better offense than the Tigers somehow makes Beckett a better pitcher. And, yes, it is still early, but it is still fun to talk about.

 

[Alias]

FIP - Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale3.03 Beckett3.84 Jackson

Can I go find some obscure stat where Jackson is better?

My point was that ERA also depended on fielding, your main point was the strength of Jackson's ERA. I'm too lazy to look up each of their ERA+ stats, but if you have the time I'd be curious how they compare.

 

[David Yudkin]

Jackson 171

Beckett 144

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Verlander v Beckett

Wins:

Verlander 12

Beckett 13

ERA:

Verlander 3.29

Beckett 3.27

ERC%:

Verlander .92

Beckett .87

WHIP:

Verlander 1.17

Beckett 1.15

Quality Starts:

Verlander 15

Beckett 15

Ks:

Verlander 180

Beckett 132

K/BB

Verlander 4.09

Beckett 3.38

Run Support/game

Verlander 6.87

Beckett 7.11

So they are almost even across the board except Verlander has 48 more k's.

Also Grienke is getting some pity votes, both Beckett and Verlander have been slightly better. ERA is an overrated measurement, always has been but I guess it counts here because a good percentage of the writers who vote for Cy Young are football fans if you know what I mean.

Halladay is the leader right now of everyone but this is a pretty close race.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Again, Jackson has a better ERA, sure - but you are not taking into account ball park or division strength.

11	Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	1.037	0.901	0.992	1.319	1.000	0.95112	Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)	1.023	0.941	0.938	0.971	1.444	1.103

Comerica is a slightly better pitchers park than Fenway over time but it's not by much. Baseball References' formula has Boston at a 106 pitchers park over time, Comerica is 102. Beckett has pitched 6 games vs the AL East, Jackson has pitched 3 games vs the AL East. Jackson's Whip in those three games is around .7 while Beckett has been killed by the Yankees and Rays. So you are right that Beckett pitches in a better division but Jackson has done pretty well vs that division so I'm not sure the argument flies. Ballparks aren't much different, I'll give a slight advantage to Jackson there but he has a better ERA on the road and his WHIP is only .04 higher away from Comerica.

 

[Finless]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.

Beckett has more strikeouts, but Jackson has a significantly better ERA (0.63 better). Their WHIPs are the same. Beckett's superior W/L record is largely irrelevant, since he gets a lot more run support (only three times in the AL have scored less runs than Detroit). Jackson has had five games this year where he pitched 6 innings or more, gave up 2 runs or less, and got a loss or no-decision.Beckett simply has more name recognition, and while he has had a very good year, he really shouldn't be a top 3 Cy Young candidate right now, unless you really think W/L is more important than ERA.

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

I don't think it would matter. The odds of me making contact with either are about the same as you starting a thread that isn't a fishing trip.

 

[whoknew]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.

Beckett has more strikeouts, but Jackson has a significantly better ERA (0.63 better). Their WHIPs are the same. Beckett's superior W/L record is largely irrelevant, since he gets a lot more run support (only three times in the AL have scored less runs than Detroit). Jackson has had five games this year where he pitched 6 innings or more, gave up 2 runs or less, and got a loss or no-decision.Beckett simply has more name recognition, and while he has had a very good year, he really shouldn't be a top 3 Cy Young candidate right now, unless you really think W/L is more important than ERA.

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

Pretty clearly Beckett.

 

[bostonfred]

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

Pretty clearly Beckett.

It'd be fun just to be able to say you faced 2009's best pitcher.

 

[Finless]

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

Pretty clearly Beckett.

It'd be fun just to be able to say you faced 2009's best pitcher.

And the best postseason pitcher in history. Gotta love that coming from the guy with the Lions Logo, right bostonfred?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

Pretty clearly Beckett.

It'd be fun just to be able to say you faced 2009's best pitcher.

And the best postseason pitcher in history. Gotta love that coming from the guy with the Lions Logo, right bostonfred?

You've lost a step.

 

[Finless]

Ridiculous. Who would you rather face, Beckett or Jackson?

Pretty clearly Beckett.

It'd be fun just to be able to say you faced 2009's best pitcher.

And the best postseason pitcher in history. Gotta love that coming from the guy with the Lions Logo, right bostonfred?

You've lost a step.

Not you too, DD...not you.

 

[wilked]

At this point I have the race realistically coming down to Beckett, Halladay, Hernandez, and Verlander, and I see Beckett in the lead right now. Guy has like a 1.8 ERA in his last 14 starts. He looks like a reasonable bet for 20 wins. 20 wins will lock it up for him, but even without I think he is the likeliest at this point in the season

 

[whoknew]

Verlander pitches 119-123 were all 99 or 100mph today.

Pretty impressive.

 

[Finless]

Verlander pitches 119-123 were all 99 or 100mph today. Pretty impressive.

I was in awe

 

[BoulderBob]

Up until the three games after his perfect game, Burls numbers were up there with the best of them, and he still has ten or so starts left. Becket will win, and then suck next year, seems to be weird pattern with the guy, but not really a bad thing...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

At this point I have the race realistically coming down to Beckett, Halladay, Hernandez, and Verlander, and I see Beckett in the lead right now. Guy has like a 1.8 ERA in his last 14 starts. He looks like a reasonable bet for 20 wins. 20 wins will lock it up for him, but even without I think he is the likeliest at this point in the season

Beckett not in the lead. Beckett is the 4th horse in a 3 horse race.

 

[guru_007]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.I think Greinke may be the most deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Beckett win it. Beckett has been dominating this year, and his team is 16-5 in games he has started, best in the league. Plus Beckett pitches in the toughest division.I'd say Greinke wins, followed by Beckett/Halladay

 

[EZD222]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.I think Greinke may be the most deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Beckett win it. Beckett has been dominating this year, and his team is 16-5 in games he has started, best in the league. Plus Beckett pitches in the toughest division.I'd say Greinke wins, followed by Beckett/Halladay

Greinke looking real nice his last two starts. 15K's and now a CGSO 1 hitter.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

strong finish to August for Beckett:

Aug 18 @ TOR: 7 ER in 5.1 IP

Aug 23 vs NYY: 8 ER in 8.0 IP

Aug 28 vs TOR: 5 ER in 5.0 IP

10 HR allowed in those 18.1 innings.

Grienke had this locked up in April.

 

[sandy]

Although he doesn't warrant Cy Young consideration, Edwin Jackson has been a bulldog.

Jackson would be a more deserving winner than Josh Beckett right now.

Not sure why you would think this.Only stat that Jackson is better than Beckett is ERA, and at least part of this has to do with their respective home ball parks.I think Greinke may be the most deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Beckett win it. Beckett has been dominating this year, and his team is 16-5 in games he has started, best in the league. Plus Beckett pitches in the toughest division.I'd say Greinke wins, followed by Beckett/Halladay

Greinke looking real nice his last two starts. 15K's and now a CGSO 1 hitter.

Not really tough lineups he pitched against in those two starts...

 

[guru_007]

Not really tough lineups he pitched against in those two starts...

I'm positive the voters will take this into account. Thanks for posting.

 

[igbomb]

Grienke had this locked up in April.

While I think he's the best pitcher in baseball this year, the voters aren't going to like that last place finish. May be another year where someone gets screwed because the wrong team drafter them.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Among AL pitchers, Sabathia ranks 1st in wins, 1st in IP, 6th in Ks, 7th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP

Greinke ranks 6th in wins, 3rd in IP, 2nd in Ks, 1st in ERA, 1st in WHIP

Beckett ranks 3rd in wins, 7th in IP, 5th in Ks, 16th in ERA, 6th in WHIP

 

[whoknew]

Greinke looking real nice his last two starts. 15K's and now a CGSO 1 hitter.

Not really tough lineups he pitched against in those two starts...

He doesn't get to face the Royals.

 

[guru_007]

I think this is a two horse race now - Greinke vs Hernandez

 

[sandy]

I think this is a two horse race now - Greinke vs Hernandez

And Verlander... 2nd in wins, 6th in ERA, 1st in strikeouts, 8th in WHIP, T-5th in BAA... And his team is in first...He has to be in the mix as well...

 

[jobarules]

Grienke

Hernandez

Verlander

Sabathia

all in the mix but how can Mariano not even get a mention. I realize hes a closer but dude has given up 1R since June and has an ERA below 0.90 in save situations this year. That is insane.

 

[igbomb]

GrienkeHernandezVerlanderSabathiaall in the mix but how can Mariano not even get a mention. I realize hes a closer but dude has given up 1R since June and has an ERA below 0.90 in save situations this year. That is insane.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and rankingGreinke 7.6 1Verlander 6.2 2Halladay 5.9 3Felix 5.5 4Lester 5.5 5CC 5.4 6Rivera 1.8 40

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I think this is a two horse race now - Greinke vs Verlander

 

[pesh]

I really do think that Zach Greinke has the best chance of winning it, but there's others right there with him that aren't just going to slow down. For the NL I like Lincecum, he's got a great ERA and he leads the league in strikeouts.

 

[720tail]

Greinke and Verlander

 

[wilked]

Greinke deserves the Cy. The only reason he is not a 100% consensus is wins, and that is wholly a result of his team's putrid offense.

That said, for fun, here is another pitcher, numbers compared to Greinke. Note: Numbers are all post-May. Note2: I know this is cherry picking and the season doesn't start in June

Pitcher A

16 GS

108.1 IP

83 H

122/31 K/BB

6 HRA

2.33 ERA

.209 BAA

.563 Opp. OPS

63% Strikes

18% LD

Greinke:

17 GS

116.1 IP

111 H

122/30 K/BB

11 HRA

3.02 ERA

.249 BAA

.690 Opp. OPS

63% Strikes

19% LD

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Any chance Scott Feldman makes a run at it?

16-4 w/a 3.46 ERA.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Any chance Scott Feldman makes a run at it?16-4 w/a 3.46 ERA.

Probably not but still a great story.

 

[guru_007]

I think this is a two horse race now - Greinke vs Hernandez

Greinke is the man2 er in his last 35 innings coming down the stretchOne more start, shut him down, and then let the Royals start their drive for last place in 2010.