11 things I think I think (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won’t.

2. The Cowboys are not going to be very good. I know a lot has been made of this already, but their offensive line is in shambles. They are no longer a contender. With a bad o-line and bad coaching, you aren’t going to go very far in this NFL. I know my boy Oats would agree. The 'Boy will finish 8-8 or worse and Coach Wade will finally lose his job.

3. Given that the Cowboys will stink, I think the Giants will win the NFC East by default. They were not healthy last year and went 8-8. They should be better on both sides of the ball and make a run at 11-5 this year.

4. Whoever makes schedules in the NFL hates Miami. I haven’t looked at any Strength’s of Schedule listings yet, but how can these guys not have the toughest schedule? Here is a look at their first 9 opponents: @ Buf, @Min, Jets, NE, @GB, Pitt, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. I’m surprised the schedule makers couldn’t fit the Saints in there anywhere. The Dolphins first half of 2010 is a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the season gets a bit softer of course, but that is the meat of your fantasy season. Time to look at your roster and figure out how many Dolphins you have.

5. I can’t recall a more wide-open season. There are at least 10 teams with a shot to win the Super Bowl. Oh, and I’m only talking about the AFC here. The top 10 in the AFC is STACKED.

6. A lot of people are writing off the Cardinals. I wouldn’t do that just yet. Yes, they lost Kurt Warner and Boldin. Those are pretty big hits. They still have a lot of talent.

7. I think if there was ever a year to wait on drafting a QB in your fantasy league, this was the year. From a historical perspective, 2009 was the first year ever to have 5 players finish with a passer rating greater than 100. Drew Brees had the highest rating last year with a 109.6. I thought it would be interesting to see where Brees’ 2009 season stacks up.

Going back 30 years, 5 QB’s had a better passer rating:

2007 Brady 117.2

2004 Manning 121.1

2004 Culpepper 110.9

1994 Steve Young 112.8

1989 Montana 112.4

By the way, Brees also had a huge year in 2004 with a 104.8. Also by the way, David Garrard finished 17th last year with an 83.5. Anyone predicting him to have a break out year again this year?

8. I like Joe Flacco a lot this year. This is his 3rd season in the league and he has started in all 16 games his first two seasons. Year 3 is the year QBs start to get it. Add that to the fact that the Ravens are adding multiple weapons to his arsenal and he should be in for a 3900 yard 30+ TD season.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

10. I wish I had drafted Ricky Williams in more leagues. He had almost 1400 total yards last year to go along with 13 TDs. How many seasons has Ronnie Brown played a full season again?

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats. He’s going to win guys a lot of leagues.

 

[ponchsox]

30+ TDs for Flacco? That would put him in Peyton Manning territory. Crazy talk.

 

[Vultan]

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats. He’s going to win guys a lot of leagues.

If you're right on this one I'd like to have your baby.

 

[Insein]

4. Whoever makes schedules in the NFL hates Miami. I haven’t looked at any Strength’s of Schedule listings yet, but how can these guys not have the toughest schedule? Here is a look at their first 9 opponents: @ Buf, @Min, Jets, NE, @GB, Pitt, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. I’m surprised the schedule makers couldn’t fit the Saints in there anywhere. The Dolphins first half of 2010 is a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the season gets a bit softer of course, but that is the meat of your fantasy season. Time to look at your roster and figure out how many Dolphins you have.

I'm sure its been stated ad nauseum on the forums but the NFL schedule is a set piece of work. The only adjustments made are the location and the time of year they play. The teams are determined as 6 divisional games, 4 AFC opponents of one division, 4 NFC opponents of one division, 2 opponents of the same rank in the other 2 conference divisions. There is no deviation in this formula for any team.

 

[David Yudkin]

The Pats schedule is worse than the Fins. All the other games are the same, but substitute @OAK and vs. TEN from MIA for @SD and vs. IND for NE.

 

[GloryDaze]

Only Hawks go to 11

 

[Joe Bryant]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won’t.

2. The Cowboys are not going to be very good. I know a lot has been made of this already, but their offensive line is in shambles. They are no longer a contender. With a bad o-line and bad coaching, you aren’t going to go very far in this NFL. I know my boy Oats would agree. The 'Boy will finish 8-8 or worse and Coach Wade will finally lose his job.

3. Given that the Cowboys will stink, I think the Giants will win the NFC East by default. They were not healthy last year and went 8-8. They should be better on both sides of the ball and make a run at 11-5 this year.

4. Whoever makes schedules in the NFL hates Miami. I haven’t looked at any Strength’s of Schedule listings yet, but how can these guys not have the toughest schedule? Here is a look at their first 9 opponents: @ Buf, @Min, Jets, NE, @GB, Pitt, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. I’m surprised the schedule makers couldn’t fit the Saints in there anywhere. The Dolphins first half of 2010 is a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the season gets a bit softer of course, but that is the meat of your fantasy season. Time to look at your roster and figure out how many Dolphins you have.

5. I can’t recall a more wide-open season. There are at least 10 teams with a shot to win the Super Bowl. Oh, and I’m only talking about the AFC here. The top 10 in the AFC is STACKED.

6. A lot of people are writing off the Cardinals. I wouldn’t do that just yet. Yes, they lost Kurt Warner and Boldin. Those are pretty big hits. They still have a lot of talent.

7. I think if there was ever a year to wait on drafting a QB in your fantasy league, this was the year. From a historical perspective, 2009 was the first year ever to have 5 players finish with a passer rating greater than 100. Drew Brees had the highest rating last year with a 109.6. I thought it would be interesting to see where Brees’ 2009 season stacks up.

Going back 30 years, 5 QB’s had a better passer rating:

2007 Brady 117.2

2004 Manning 121.1

2004 Culpepper 110.9

1994 Steve Young 112.8

1989 Montana 112.4

By the way, Brees also had a huge year in 2004 with a 104.8. Also by the way, David Garrard finished 17th last year with an 83.5. Anyone predicting him to have a break out year again this year?

8. I like Joe Flacco a lot this year. This is his 3rd season in the league and he has started in all 16 games his first two seasons. Year 3 is the year QBs start to get it. Add that to the fact that the Ravens are adding multiple weapons to his arsenal and he should be in for a 3900 yard 30+ TD season.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

10. I wish I had drafted Ricky Williams in more leagues. He had almost 1400 total yards last year to go along with 13 TDs. How many seasons has Ronnie Brown played a full season again?

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats. He’s going to win guys a lot of leagues.

Good thread.J

 

[Scooter71]

The fact that Sanchez is the QB is a reason to rein in your optimism. Hard to get close enough for rushing TDs when you have a generally inept passing game. Not to mention that defenses will be playing the run all day. Then of course there is the unknown LT factor. How many of the yards/TDs will he vulture? Nobody knows for sure, but they didn't bring him in to hold Greene's water.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

 

[shortbow]

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats. He’s going to win guys a lot of leagues.

If you're right on this one I'd like to have your baby.

Seconded

 

[the UFFRM]

The fact that Sanchez is the QB is a reason to rein in your optimism. Hard to get close enough for rushing TDs when you have a generally inept passing game. Not to mention that defenses will be playing the run all day. Then of course there is the unknown LT factor. How many of the yards/TDs will he vulture? Nobody knows for sure, but they didn't bring him in to hold Greene's water.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

Good thread except for the OP claims about Flacco and Greene.

 

[Joe T]

The fact that Sanchez is the QB is a reason to rein in your optimism. Hard to get close enough for rushing TDs when you have a generally inept passing game. Not to mention that defenses will be playing the run all day. Then of course there is the unknown LT factor. How many of the yards/TDs will he vulture? Nobody knows for sure, but they didn't bring him in to hold Greene's water.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

Wasn't Sanchez the QB last year also? Having a great o-line and a great defense goes a long way in making the Jets the best rushing team in the NFL.

The Jets ran the ball 607 times last year. T. Jones only got 331 of those carries. There will be plenty of carries to go around this year.

 

[latrops]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won’t.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats. He’s going to win guys a lot of leagues.

If you're right on this one I'd like to have your baby.

Seconded

Count me in too..dang, your gonna turn into Travis "who's yo daddy" Henry making statements like that!

 

[dgreen]

30+ TDs for Flacco? That would put him in Peyton Manning territory. Crazy talk.

If he raises his attempts to about 550 and raise his TD% to 5% (from 4.2 last year), he'll be in the upper 20s. I think 5% is possible for him given his additional weapons and his own progress. He's a pretty talented guy.The main hurdle for him is how many pass attempts he gets.

 

[Joe T]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won’t.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

I like your thinking. Welcome to the Hawk Club™.

Here's the problem. If we assume for the sake of this argument that someone in the 4-12 to 6-10 range does make the leap to the playoffs this year, who of these teams do you like?

Team & 2009 record

Bills 6-10

Browns 5-11

Raiders 5-11

Jags 4-12

Redskins 4-12

Seahawks 5-11

There's only one hawk choice here.

 

[the UFFRM]

I think the point is that they were able to run that much because Thomas Jones partially enabled them to do so. Leon did his thing too pre-injury. IMO with the status quo on O-line and even a slight improvement in the passing game the running game may not be as effective with a 2nd year RB with a style that leaves one open to big hits backed up by a future HOFer running on fumes. BTW what is with the hawks thing? I participated because that was my HS mascot. Please clarify.

 

[Joe T]

30+ TDs for Flacco? That would put him in Peyton Manning territory. Crazy talk.

If he raises his attempts to about 550 and raise his TD% to 5% (from 4.2 last year), he'll be in the upper 20s. I think 5% is possible for him given his additional weapons and his own progress. He's a pretty talented guy.The main hurdle for him is how many pass attempts he gets.

Good point.

It depends on if their defense is better than last year. They already have a very tough schedule so they should be playing from behind some. If their defense is slightly worse than last year, Flacco could easily get there from a pass attempts perspective.

 

[Joe T]

4. Whoever makes schedules in the NFL hates Miami. I haven’t looked at any Strength’s of Schedule listings yet, but how can these guys not have the toughest schedule? Here is a look at their first 9 opponents: @ Buf, @Min, Jets, NE, @GB, Pitt, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. I’m surprised the schedule makers couldn’t fit the Saints in there anywhere. The Dolphins first half of 2010 is a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the season gets a bit softer of course, but that is the meat of your fantasy season. Time to look at your roster and figure out how many Dolphins you have.

I'm sure its been stated ad nauseum on the forums but the NFL schedule is a set piece of work. The only adjustments made are the location and the time of year they play. The teams are determined as 6 divisional games, 4 AFC opponents of one division, 4 NFC opponents of one division, 2 opponents of the same rank in the other 2 conference divisions. There is no deviation in this formula for any team.

Okay, well then they got a pretty bad draw on those two things. 5 of the first 9 on the road. Road games are BUF, MIN, GB, CIN, BAL. Outside of BUF, you have 4 of the top 7 or 8 teams in the league on the road.

Oh, and nice sig.

 

[The Dynasty]

Just curious, but what are the "STACKED" top ten teams in the AFC in your opinion?

 

[dgreen]

30+ TDs for Flacco? That would put him in Peyton Manning territory. Crazy talk.

If he raises his attempts to about 550 and raise his TD% to 5% (from 4.2 last year), he'll be in the upper 20s. I think 5% is possible for him given his additional weapons and his own progress. He's a pretty talented guy.The main hurdle for him is how many pass attempts he gets.

Good point.

It depends on if their defense is better than last year. They already have a very tough schedule so they should be playing from behind some. If their defense is slightly worse than last year, Flacco could easily get there from a pass attempts perspective.

I'm not sure they'll be playing from behind a lot. I really like Baltimore this year. They're probably a 12-4 team.But, I still think he can reach 550+ attempts by the coaching staff trusting him more and unleashing him. 2008 (his rookie year) play selection was 592:466 in favor of the run. 2009 was 468:546 in favor of the pass. (Pass number include sacks.)

 

[steelwind]

30+ TDs for Flacco? That would put him in Peyton Manning territory. Crazy talk.

The road to 30 TD will be put on hold until after week 1.

 

[Scooter71]

The fact that Sanchez is the QB is a reason to rein in your optimism. Hard to get close enough for rushing TDs when you have a generally inept passing game. Not to mention that defenses will be playing the run all day. Then of course there is the unknown LT factor. How many of the yards/TDs will he vulture? Nobody knows for sure, but they didn't bring him in to hold Greene's water.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts. I tried to get him in every league I’m in. How is this guy not the most hyped running back in the league? Let’s see, he will run behind the best offensive line in the league. Check. He averaged 5.6 a carry in the playoffs last year and over 100 yards a game on only 18 carries a game. Check. Last I checked Sanchez is still the QB in Jetland. Check. Check. I love that he Greene so far down in the rankings. He was an absolute steal in every format.

Wasn't Sanchez the QB last year also? Having a great o-line and a great defense goes a long way in making the Jets the best rushing team in the NFL.

The Jets ran the ball 607 times last year. T. Jones only got 331 of those carries. There will be plenty of carries to go around this year.

Points well taken, but honestly I just don't think we've seen enough of Greene to assume he finishes Top 10. I think the bandwagon is still somewhat empty because there are still several questions to be answered about Greene and the situation.

 

[Chaka]

BTW what is with the hawks thing? I participated because that was my HS mascot. Please clarify.

The Hawk

 

[Joe T]

Just curious, but what are the "STACKED" top ten teams in the AFC in your opinion?

In no order -ChargersColtsRavensBengalsJetsPatriotsTexansTitansSteelersDolphinsBonus #11: Raiders

 

[The Ref]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won't.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

I feel the same way about the Raiders. Alot of folks here in NE think the Patriots will be drafting top 5 next year and I think they are in for a suprize. The Raiders D will be much improved this year.

 

[The Ref]

I think Reggie Bush is going to win a lot of PPR titles this year.

 

[uwftbl]

If I am not mistaken in the week three preseason game this year, Flacco played the first half. 24 of the 37 plays were passes.

He could reach some pretty good numbers if that continues.

 

[sandlotshrink]

I'm not sure about Hawk status, but wasn't this similar to the call in poll on Mike and Mike this morning? Stink, aka, Schlereth said that the past 6 of 7 years a team had gone from last to first place IIRC and I believe the overwhelming vote was for Washington or at least the time I had to stop listening.

Here's the problem. If we assume for the sake of this argument that someone in the 4-12 to 6-10 range does make the leap to the playoffs this year, who of these teams do you like?

Team & 2009 record

Bills 6-10

Browns 5-11

Raiders 5-11

Jags 4-12

Redskins 4-12

Seahawks 5-11

There's only one hawk choice here.

 

[Insein]

I'm not sure about Hawk status, but wasn't this similar to the call in poll on Mike and Mike this morning? Stink, aka, Schlereth said that the past 6 of 7 years a team had gone from last to first place IIRC and I believe the overwhelming vote was for Washington or at least the time I had to stop listening. Here's the problem. If we assume for the sake of this argument that someone in the 4-12 to 6-10 range does make the leap to the playoffs this year, who of these teams do you like?Team & 2009 recordBills 6-10Browns 5-11Raiders 5-11Jags 4-12Redskins 4-12Seahawks 5-11There's only one hawk choice here.

Of that group, you'd have to go Seahawks. By far the weakest division that has the champ of the last few years taking a big step back. Someone will slide in there. SF or Sea. But that wouldn't be a true worst to first. I think of the last place teams, TB will be the huge, out of nowhere, shot in the dark suprise team of 2010.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

#6) About people dismissing the Cardinals....they lost Warner and Boldin as you noted...but also Rolle and Dansby on defense....I can't remember a team losing that much talent in one offseason. The Cardinals are not a division contender this season unless Beanie Wells puts up 1500+

 

[CaptainHook]

i blame the entirety of raider failure on jamarcus russel. that team is not bad anymore. would not be surprised at all to see them in the playoffs.

 

[Morton Muffley]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won't.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

I feel the same way about the Raiders. Alot of folks here in NE think the Patriots will be drafting top 5 next year and I think they are in for a suprize. The Raiders D will be much improved this year.

I think you are half right...that is, alot of folks in NE think that the Raiders pick will be a top 5 draft pick...but NO ONE thinks NE will be using that pick in the top 5 next year. Heck, I'm rooting for it to be top 5 pick just so I can watch BB turn it into:a fourth rounder in 2011 and a 3rd rounder in 2013 and four first round picks in 2018

 

[r3t2]

4. Whoever makes schedules in the NFL hates Miami. I haven’t looked at any Strength’s of Schedule listings yet, but how can these guys not have the toughest schedule? Here is a look at their first 9 opponents: @ Buf, @Min, Jets, NE, @GB, Pitt, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. I’m surprised the schedule makers couldn’t fit the Saints in there anywhere. The Dolphins first half of 2010 is a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the season gets a bit softer of course, but that is the meat of your fantasy season. Time to look at your roster and figure out how many Dolphins you have.

I'm sure its been stated ad nauseum on the forums but the NFL schedule is a set piece of work. The only adjustments made are the location and the time of year they play. The teams are determined as 6 divisional games, 4 AFC opponents of one division, 4 NFC opponents of one division, 2 opponents of the same rank in the other 2 conference divisions. There is no deviation in this formula for any team.

Okay, well then they got a pretty bad draw on those two things. 5 of the first 9 on the road. Road games are BUF, MIN, GB, CIN, BAL. Outside of BUF, you have 4 of the top 7 or 8 teams in the league on the road.

Oh, and nice sig.

5 of the first 9 is 5 road games and 4 home games...is that an outrageous spread? how else would you divide it up?

the road opponents do seem to be difficult though. of the two divisions they play they have to go to the top 2 teams in each and get the bottom 2 in each at home. doesnt seem equitable.

the cards are screwed at qb. i dont see how a team can win consistently with that batch of qbs...at least in 2010.

i could see the raiders in the playoffs.

flacco call is bold, but i suppose it could happen. we've seen stranger things.

greene definitely could be one of those "why didnt we see this coming and draft him accordingly?" stories.

 

[rizzler]

are you people honestly saying Greene wasnt hyped this offseason?

do you live in a bunker?

 

[SammyJankis]

Awesome thread. I agree on many points. A few comments.

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs.

I was telling anyone that would listen this exact sentiment a month ago. Lately, I've backed off a bit, on account of all the injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Still, I think they're vastly underrated, and their D should be solid.6. A lot of people are writing off the Cardinals. I wouldn’t do that just yet.

Agree. (Disclaimer: Cards homer.) Their D will be surpisingly good. Would not be surprised if they have one of the top defenses in the NFC. Warning: At some positions (ILB and CB in particular) the depth is very poor. If they end up with injuries at those positions, they might not live up to their potential.

8. I like Joe Flacco a lot this year.

I have him in zero of three leagues and that's a shame. I think he's a solid solid value this year.

9. The Shonn Greene bandwagon feels pretty lonely around these parts.

10. I wish I had drafted Ricky Williams in more leagues.

11. I think Ray Rice finishes the season as the #1 RB in PPR formats.

Agree on all points. Love Shonn Greene running behind that Jets O-line. Ricky is solid value and I agree that Rice has a shot in PPR formats.

 

[moleculo]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won’t.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

I like your thinking. Welcome to the Hawk Club™.

Here's the problem. If we assume for the sake of this argument that someone in the 4-12 to 6-10 range does make the leap to the playoffs this year, who of these teams do you like?

Team & 2009 record

Bills 6-10

Browns 5-11

Raiders 5-11

Jags 4-12

Redskins 4-12

Seahawks 5-11

There's only one hawk choice here.

Why limit it to 4-12 and up?IMO, the answer is Detroit. I think that a stout DL can cover up lots of other defensive warts. I also believe that they have playmakers in all of the key positions on offense. That, coupled with an iminent Bear implosion, can push Detroit to the cusp of playoffs. I'm not saying they will make it, but they will be in the hunt down the stretch.

 

[Pat Patriot]

1. The Raiders are going to be good. In fact, they will make the playoffs. There is usually a team from the 4-12 to 6-10 range the previous season that breaks out the next season and makes the playoffs. This year it will be the Raiders.

They finally have a decent QB. They already have good offensive and defensive lines. Their young skill players should finally have a chance to show off. Plus, they have a very soft schedule.

Note: From 08 to 09 the Bengals went from 4-11-1 to 10-6 and a division win.

From 07 to 08, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and a wildcard playoff spot.

I could keep going, but I won't.

Huh? I can see the Raiders improving...and they play in one of the two divisions where you don't have to be great to win (NFC West). That said, your comparisons aren't very good. Other than that 4-11 debacle, the Bengals have been around or over .500 every year since 2002. Excluding 2007 and 2005, the Ravens have been competitive (around or over .500) since 1999. My point being, the Bengals and Ravens were solid teams coming off of ONE bad year. The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since 2002. Jason Campbell is OK, but it's not like he did much for Washington. The Raiders look like, if things go fairly well, they can improve to 7 or 8 wins. Expecting more than that is VERY optimistic.

I feel the same way about the Raiders. Alot of folks here in NE think the Patriots will be drafting top 5 next year and I think they are in for a suprize. The Raiders D will be much improved this year.

I wouldnt get too excited about Jason Campbell just yet. He went 4-12 with the Skins last year and the Skins had a better D than the Raiders do. Oaklands OLine is also pretty pitiful. Oakland COULD be in a lot of 50-50 games because their defense might be pretty good. That equals about a 7-9 record to me.

 

[Judge Smails]

Discuss the Dolphins brutal schedule vs. the Ricky Williams optimism