I'm not too high on Avery these days. I like his speed and athletic ability, but he plays small and I question whether or not he has the toughness needed to be great WR in the NFL. Hardy is an enigma to me. I like his situation and his college production. I'm not really sure how well his game will translate to the NFL level though. He's tall, but he lacks bulk for his height and may struggle to get separation. I think he has a chance to be successful, but I haven't drafted him in any of my leagues. The guys I like most from a risk vs. reward standpoint:
Malcolm Kelly - Size, hands, and athletic ability. Already making waves in camp. Shawn Springs likes him a lot. Durability is a ?
Devin Thomas - Bigger bust risk than Kelly, but has the athletic ability to be an NFL WR1 if he puts it all together.
Jordy Nelson - Second WR drafted. Comes with the Ted Thompson seal of approval. Seems like a safe bet to become a decent player. Upside may be limited.
Eddie Royal - Good athlete with underrated football skills. Looks like a natural pass catcher. Has the potential to be another Laveranues Coles.
Andre Caldwell - I think he's a legitimate candidate to eventually replace Chad or Housh. Good athlete and football player.
Adrian Arrington - My favorite deep sleeper of the class. A longshot, but has talent.
Kelly, Thomas, and Nelson are my top 3. I like the value of Royal and Caldwell as later picks with big upside. These are the guys I've been targeting in my leagues. In five drafts I've acquired Arrington 4 times, Kelly 4 times, Royal 3 times, Caldwell 2 times, Thomas 1 time, and Nelson 1 time. They're the rookie WRs I've been focusing on. I think someone like Sweed or Hardy could also be successful, but they never fall to a range where I'd feel comfortable taking them.