20 Questions I want to discuss. (1 Viewer)

[Menace]

-Will S.Greene actually be able to hold his spot all season? Is LT value in the 11th round?

-Yes, I'm expecting a decent year out of him - 1100yrds 9td

-Will Pittsburgh throw the ball as much as some think they will? No suspensions this year, lots of weapons, even the WR3/4 slots not his team have talent.

-I think so, I think Ben is pissed and ready to unleash

-What is going on Kansas City? ABANDON SHIP!!!

-Who knows, I think Charles will be a bust this year, has nothing to do w lack of talent

-Can Oakland really pull it together on offense and justify the 1st round selection of DMC?

-DMC kinda scares me. Huge talent but a little too risky for me

-Why are people not tripping over themselves to select Tom Brady? He seems like a shoe in for 4,000+ yes and 35+ TDs with the revamped offense. Guy is in his prime, HoF QB, HoF HC, this just seems too easy.

-Brady is becoming sort of a boring pick I think. PPl would rather have Vick, Rodgers, or take a chance on someone like Stafford and hope he blows up so they can all

brag about it.

-Why are people even questioning the selection of Arian Foster? Take Ben Tate in the 11th if you are really spooked. I could go out there and run for 1,200 yds and 10TD behind that line and I'm a slow Irishman.

-ppl are a little timid risking their #1 pick on him fearing that last year could be a fluke.

-Why do we try and make every player we have interest in a shoe in for top12 at their position. There are 45 WRs off the board and I have to read how Shaky Mallow is gonna tear it up as the WR3 in San Fran. Just realize that not everybody is going to be a star.

-ppl like to hype players up so that IF they do end up tearing it up, they can pat themselves on the back and brag to everybody

-Thank Gawd for Dallas fans and their propensity to play in a lot of FF drafts. No question, just giving thanks.

-Why can't Miami see that they have no answer at QB? Why have they not accepted that they are competing in a pass 1st league?

-It is going to be a long year in Miami. Can't believe they hired the Off coordinator from Clev. Man he sucks!

-Why is Vincent Jackson going so early? He's never caught 70 balls in his 5 years in the league.

-he is having a good preseason and is part of a great/reliable offense

-Why are people not scooping up Hillis and Turner in the 2nd and 3rd round instead of guys like Best and Felix who have not really proven to hold up well. Turner has had some injuries but he is steady production and now has a full passing attack in front of him. Hillis just continues to make me feel dumber and dumber for putting him down last year. Foolish on my part and I'm not going to make that mistake again. You can pick on Cleveland and the OL, you can say their offense is limited, but it sure couldn't be worse than last year and he was terrific for much of the season. I like him over guys like Gore right now who are worried about their bank account more because they know the end of the line is coming...you should too.

-ppl are afraid of Hillis b/c he slowed down last year near the end of the season. I think having Hardesty sharing some of the load is going to keep him fresh. I think

he is a lock for double digit TD's

-What happens to the teams that have taken Chris Johnson at the #6-#9 holes the last few weeks after he signs? These teams are going to have a huge advantage whenever he shows up. It would seem this is going to get done sooner than later.

-How much are you going to hate Mario Manningham cracking the top12 knowing you whiffed on him at least once or twice in the draft?

-I'm hoping to get him in my upcoming draft but I am not going to reach for him. Something tells me that he will be good but not great this year.

-Is 8-8 going to take the NFC West again?

-Is Stafford the biggest upside QB after the top10-12 come off the board? If so why? If he is healthy doesn't that make Calvin Johnson a clear cut #1WR overall in FF?

-Yeah, I think so. for this year at least. I think CJ is #2 right now behind AJ but could end up #1 if everything goes right.

-Will the Bucs really be as good as last season? Is Blount really the answer and is he worth a 4th round pick right now?

-No but i think Blunt is for real. I wouldn't think twice making him my #2 back

-What WRs or RBs are sure fire hits in the 2nd round? The 2nd and 3rd round seem very dicey to me as I watch the drafts.

-Not sure about 2nd round but i do like Hightower and Lance Moore this year.

-How is Chicago going to move the football with the worst OL in the NFL?

-what a hot mess

-Is it me or does New Orleans look they might run a lot more offense thru their RBs this year? Meaning it might go something like Ingram-40-50%, Pierre-30-35%(he looks great right now), Sproles 20-25% of all the Rb touches meaning none of them will be top 5-10, but there could be 2 of them in the top 20.

-I think they will run more. Gut feeling that Ingram has a great rookie year.

-Why do we get so emotional over something we have little to no control over? I don't really expect this one to be answered

If you answer mine I'll answer yours, deal?

This post has been edited by Ministry of Pain: Today, 01:52 PM

"If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed. Results like this do not belong on the resume of a supreme being. This is the kind of sh-t you expect from an office temp with a bad atitude."

"Let's not give guys a lot of accolades on a team that has that many losses,'' Kenny Smith said. "I call it being a looter in a riot. It's easy to get great numbers with all of the chaos going on.''

0

 

[SSOG]

Not using reception totals at all. Using week in week out numbers. I'm not sure where anyone claimed Marshall was the model of consistancy. And no one is calling Jax a bum either. 14 games under 10 points out of 31 is pitiful and exactly my point.

Maybe you can compare him to Lee Evans next? That'll prove .... something...

Fine then, you don't like my Marshall comparison? Who would you rather I compare him to? You called Vincent Jackson's 14/31 (45%) rate of <10 point games "pitiful". Let's see how some other receivers compare. Here's the percentage of times a receiver has failed to hit 10 points since 2008:38% - Andre Johnson

40% - Calvin Johnson

42% - Roddy White

46% - Larry Fitzgerald

52% - Greg Jennings

46% - Hakeem Nicks (excluding 2009 because he hadn't broken out yet)

54% - Reggie Wayne

45% - Vincent Jackson (excluding 2010 because of his holdout)

57% - Brandon Marshall (if you exclude 2010, this falls to 53%)

52% - Desean Jackson (excluding 2008 because he hadn't broken out yet)

44% - Mike Williams TB

56% - Anquan Boldin (if you exclude last year, this falls to 48%)

Of the top 12 receivers in PPG over the last 3 years, only Andre, Calvin, and Roddy have an appreciably lower rate of <10 point games (Mike Williams finishes in a virtual tie, as well). But Andre, Calvin, and Roddy were the three highest-scoring WRs in the NFL over that span! The more points a WR scores, the fewer <10pt games they're going to have- that's a simple truism that tells us nothing about Vincent Jackson. Meanwhile, that "pathetic" performance of 14/31 games under 10 points winds up being the best and most consistent showing of any other top-12 WR.

And this was exactly my point. People develop simple narratives in their heads (guys with high YPC totals are inconsistent from week to week). Once that narrative is formed, they stick to it dogmatically, ignoring any data to the contrary, and interpreting any seemingly ambiguous data as if it supports their point without first bothering to establish any rudimentary context. You made up your mind that Vincent Jackson was inconsistent. I told you that he only failed to reach 10 points 45% of the time. Rather than objectively evaluating the information I presented you, you simply pretended it supported your point all along ("45%?! Why, that sounds like it must be high, and I know in my heart that Vincent Jackson really is inconsistent, so this must be the proof I was looking for!"). Meanwhile, in reality (and with the proper context), the data pretty solidly refutes your point.

Now, I've had arguments like this before, and sometimes people will try to avoid admitting they were wrong by firing back with something like "Did I say 10 point games? No, let's see how he did in terms of percentage of 8 point games! 8 points is the magic number that measures consistency, not 10!". I'm hoping you're not one of those guys, because I don't feel like crunching all those numbers all over again. Just trust me when I say that no matter what baseline you use- 10 point games, 8 point games, 5 point games, % of points scored in the best 25% of games, % of points scored in the worst 50% of games, standard deviation- Vincent Jackson will consistently finish near the top in any measure of consistency. The narrative (high YPC guys are inconsistent) is pervasive and compelling, but the reality is indisputable. Vincent Jackson has been a very consistent performer ever since he first broke out.

 

[tenaka]

Not using reception totals at all. Using week in week out numbers. I'm not sure where anyone claimed Marshall was the model of consistancy. And no one is calling Jax a bum either. 14 games under 10 points out of 31 is pitiful and exactly my point.

Maybe you can compare him to Lee Evans next? That'll prove .... something...

Fine then, you don't like my Marshall comparison? Who would you rather I compare him to? You called Vincent Jackson's 14/31 (45%) rate of <10 point games "pitiful". Let's see how some other receivers compare. Here's the percentage of times a receiver has failed to hit 10 points since 2008:38% - Andre Johnson

40% - Calvin Johnson

42% - Roddy White

46% - Larry Fitzgerald

52% - Greg Jennings

46% - Hakeem Nicks (excluding 2009 because he hadn't broken out yet)

54% - Reggie Wayne

45% - Vincent Jackson (excluding 2010 because of his holdout)

57% - Brandon Marshall (if you exclude 2010, this falls to 53%)

52% - Desean Jackson (excluding 2008 because he hadn't broken out yet)

44% - Mike Williams TB

56% - Anquan Boldin (if you exclude last year, this falls to 48%)

Of the top 12 receivers in PPG over the last 3 years, only Andre, Calvin, and Roddy have an appreciably lower rate of <10 point games (Mike Williams finishes in a virtual tie, as well). But Andre, Calvin, and Roddy were the three highest-scoring WRs in the NFL over that span! The more points a WR scores, the fewer <10pt games they're going to have- that's a simple truism that tells us nothing about Vincent Jackson. Meanwhile, that "pathetic" performance of 14/31 games under 10 points winds up being the best and most consistent showing of any other top-12 WR.

And this was exactly my point. People develop simple narratives in their heads (guys with high YPC totals are inconsistent from week to week). Once that narrative is formed, they stick to it dogmatically, ignoring any data to the contrary, and interpreting any seemingly ambiguous data as if it supports their point without first bothering to establish any rudimentary context. You made up your mind that Vincent Jackson was inconsistent. I told you that he only failed to reach 10 points 45% of the time. Rather than objectively evaluating the information I presented you, you simply pretended it supported your point all along ("45%?! Why, that sounds like it must be high, and I know in my heart that Vincent Jackson really is inconsistent, so this must be the proof I was looking for!"). Meanwhile, in reality (and with the proper context), the data pretty solidly refutes your point.

Now, I've had arguments like this before, and sometimes people will try to avoid admitting they were wrong by firing back with something like "Did I say 10 point games? No, let's see how he did in terms of percentage of 8 point games! 8 points is the magic number that measures consistency, not 10!". I'm hoping you're not one of those guys, because I don't feel like crunching all those numbers all over again. Just trust me when I say that no matter what baseline you use- 10 point games, 8 point games, 5 point games, % of points scored in the best 25% of games, % of points scored in the worst 50% of games, standard deviation- Vincent Jackson will consistently finish near the top in any measure of consistency. The narrative (high YPC guys are inconsistent) is pervasive and compelling, but the reality is indisputable. Vincent Jackson has been a very consistent performer ever since he first broke out.

I can only assume with these numbers that your talking NONppr. Next time say that up front and save everyone a lot of time. That's a whole different ballgame.

Sub 10 in ppr is pitiful.

 

[SSOG]

I can only assume with these numbers that your talking NONppr. Next time say that up front and save everyone a lot of time. That's a whole different ballgame.

Sub 10 in ppr is pitiful.

Umm... you mean like this?

Why do people get so damn hung up on reception totals? Unless you are playing in a PPR league, a reception is a complete and total non-statistic. Jackson has finished in the top 12 in each of his last two seasons despite pathetic target numbers.

Wrong again. Vincent Jackson topped 50 receiving yards in 23 of 31 games from 2008 to 2009 (74%). He also topped 70 yards in 14 games. His 14 games with at least 1 TD in those two years ranked behind only Fitzgerald (20 games with a TD), and White/Moss/Calvin/Wayne (15 games with a TD). It's true that he had a lot of 2-catch games, but in non-PPR leagues, that's completely irrelevant. Receptions are non-statistics.

The word "PPR" has been mentioned 7 times in this thread. Four of those seven times have been by me, explicitly stating that I was speaking about non-PPR leagues. While I did not explicitly say "non-PPR" in the post you originally quoted, my intention should have been clear enough when I called 127/2265/16 and 205/2385/16 "essentially identical numbers".Edit: Besides, if someone is saying "it's not the totals that bother me, it's the inconsistency", then either he's talking about non-PPR (in which case, the "inconsistency" shouldn't bother him), or else he's talking about PPR (in which case, it *IS* the totals that bother him, because Vincent Jackson has not finished as a top12 WR in PPR leagues).

 

[tenaka]

Yea I don't read every post you make. But looks like you did put it in there in one of your 70000 word responses to me. Keep it short too, I'm to lazy to read that much.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

SSOG owning folks up in here yet again. Shame some of you are "to lazy" to recognize it