2007 Fantasy Draft (1 Viewer)

[brewer]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

LT will be toast when he gets put on the Madden cover...

As ridiculous as it sounds, I won't draft anyone on the cover, even if its LT.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

LT will be toast when he gets put on the Madden cover...

Rumor has it (at least in other threads) that LT has refused to appear on the Madden cover, so this curse may not be applicable.

that is interesting. is Madden Football an official NFL product? And if so, would he be allowed to refuse?

IIRC, player's have the right for their likeness to be used or not used unless is is used exclusively by the NFL. In this case, someone else is purchasing the right to use LT's image, which IIRC is not a direct use.I certainly am no expert on the NFLPA and endorsement deals, but I believe that this is something that could be considered an endorsement and Madden would have to get permission (and pay a fee) for the guy they use on their cover. A law talking guy might know more about this, so if one of you is out there please chime in.

(BTW, from what I read it seems LT asked not to be included because he views his success as a team effort and did not want himself singled out.)

 

[dickey moe]

In 12-team, PPR league, using WCOFF rules, I'd rank them as:

1.01 LT2

1.02 Steven Jackson

1.03 Larry Johnson

1.04 Frank Gore

1.05 Clinton Portis

1.06 Rudi Johnson

1.07 Willi Parker

1.08 Brian Westbrook

1.09 Shaun Alexander

1.10 Reggie Bush

1.11 Chester Taylor

1.12 Ronnie Brown

 

[LHUCKS]

Still a lot of love for Ronnie Brown...I guess we'll know today if Saban is leaving.

 

[jurb26]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

 

[One]

1. S. Jackson2. LT3. Jones-Drew4. Portis5. Parker6. Gore7. Westy8. R. Johnson9. J. Lewis10. K. Jones

Not to worry, I'm sure you'll vanish as soon as LJ proves you wrong again.

 

[H.K.]

I'm a little surprised Brandon Jacobs has not even got an honorable mention.

I guess I will be in the minorty here but I believe the Giants will not have Jacobs be the primary ball carrier. Take a guy like Lynch and put him with Jacobs and keep Jacobs effective as a short yardage specialist while Lynch learns the pro game.Tom

As a Giants fan, I have serious doubts about Jacob's ability to carry the full load and excel. At the beginning of the year had was starting to win me over, but I am back to doubting again.The early mocks with Lynch going to the Giants makes some sense, but I would much prefer they get some freaking DBs.

Jacobs seems more like the type of guy who would excel in an RBBC. He should get 10-15 carries and almost all of the goal line work, but I think he has shown that he gets "dinged" up even with his low carry total. It is possible he will try and avoid some people from time to time, but he still gets hit too hard and delivers hard hits in the process. His hands appear good enough so that he could stay in on 3rd down and either block or catch a pass though. He seems pretty complete, but I just don't think he is a 300 touch guy.

Between Tiki and Jacobs, there were almost 500 touches (425 RB carries and 69 receptions) for just under 2,700 total yards an 14 TDs. Obviously Tiki's talents were a reason for these numbers, so this is not a simple plug and play exercise.

However, Jacobs finished as RB 40 in PPR in 2006. He can still double his touches next season and not be the primary ball carrier. That would put him around 1200 total yards while retaining the GL duties so assume 8-10 TD's, plus 20 or so recepts. That puts him around RB 20 in PPR formats.

2007 Jacobs probably has a high end of McAllister and a low of Dillon based on their productivity this year.

The question becomes: how much workload does Jacobs get? It all depends on who the Giants draft/add via FA and how they use the new guy.

 

[jurb26]

1. S. Jackson2. LT3. Jones-Drew4. Portis5. Parker6. Gore7. Westy8. R. Johnson9. J. Lewis10. K. Jones

Not to worry, I'm sure you'll vanish as soon as LJ proves you wrong again.

Yeah, wow LJ really proved to be in the same class as LT this year huh.

 

[David Yudkin]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

Since I have looked into this a fair amount, one of the biggest reasons RB do not do as well the next season is that is highly unlikely that anyone will get 400 carries in a season (whether it be once or consecutively).If LJ's carries/touches go down and his supporting numbers drop by the same percentage, that's typically why players score less fantasy points the following season.However, in Johnson's case, it is possible that he will see a drop off in carries but not necessarily a dropoff in TDs or YPC. Comparing 06 to 05, LJ had 80 more carries but only 39 more rushing yards and scored 2 fewer TD.All the hype in the offseason about how Johnson would do projecting him for 16 starts was exactly that--hype. I accurately predicted that his fantasy numbers would be the same as last year (335 in 05 vs 334 in 06) even with all the hoopla about him only starting 12 games last year.It is possible that LJ's TD numbers stay high, his carries dip some, and his ypc ekes back up (down almost a full yard from 05 to 06). The logic being that staying fresher will help give Johnson better mileage per carry.I do overall concur that Johnson can really only go down from here next year. See my article on RBs with 400+ touches fromt he preseason for more on that subject . . .HOWEVER, Johnson would have to lose 45% of his fantasy production to fall out of the Top 10 next year, and IMO that will only happen if he gets hurt. And predicting an injury is always a tough thing to bank on one way or the other.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

1. S. Jackson2. LT3. Jones-Drew4. Portis5. Parker6. Gore7. Westy8. R. Johnson9. J. Lewis10. K. Jones

Not to worry, I'm sure you'll vanish as soon as LJ proves you wrong again.

Yeah, wow LJ really proved to be in the same class as LT this year huh.

 

[David Yudkin]

1. S. Jackson2. LT3. Jones-Drew4. Portis5. Parker6. Gore7. Westy8. R. Johnson9. J. Lewis10. K. Jones

Not to worry, I'm sure you'll vanish as soon as LJ proves you wrong again.

Yeah, wow LJ really proved to be in the same class as LT this year huh.

LJ scored 334 fantasy points this year. Prior to 06, LT had scored 318, 288, 344, 307, and 220. Johnson had one of the All-Time Top 15 fantasy seasons ever for a RB this year. Those that picked Johnson this year hardly got stuck with a lemon, IMO.

 

[freeannyong]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

Correct. Not to mention he is going to get 30+ carries against the Colts this week. Add that to the fact that he has 40 receptions. He is going to be very close to 500 touches. Even if he is young, that much use is going to take a toll on you.

 

[djb916420]

PPR League

1.1 LT

1.2 SJAX

1.3 GORE

1.4 LJ

1.5 WESTY

1.6 FWP

1.7 MB3

1.8 MARONEY

1.9 BUSH

1.10 MJD

1.11 ADDAI

1.12 JACOBS

just for fun

 

[One]

PPR League1.1 LT1.2 SJAX1.3 GORE1.4 LJ1.5 WESTY1.6 FWP1.7 MB31.8 MARONEY1.9 BUSH1.10 MJD1.11 ADDAI1.12 JACOBSjust for fun

I'd move Drew, Jacobs & Addai up a bit, but this gets the .

 

[freeannyong]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

Since I have looked into this a fair amount, one of the biggest reasons RB do not do as well the next season is that is highly unlikely that anyone will get 400 carries in a season (whether it be once or consecutively).If LJ's carries/touches go down and his supporting numbers drop by the same percentage, that's typically why players score less fantasy points the following season.However, in Johnson's case, it is possible that he will see a drop off in carries but not necessarily a dropoff in TDs or YPC. Comparing 06 to 05, LJ had 80 more carries but only 39 more rushing yards and scored 2 fewer TD.All the hype in the offseason about how Johnson would do projecting him for 16 starts was exactly that--hype. I accuraely predicted that his fantasy numbers would be the same as last year (335 in 05 vs 334 in 06) even with all the hoopla about him only starting 12 games last year.It is possible that LJ's TD numbers stay high, his carries dip some, and his ypc ekes back up (down almost a full yard from 05 to 06). The logic being that staying fresher will help give Johnson better mileage per carry.I do overall concur that Johnson can really only go down from here next year. See my article on RBs with 400+ touches fromt he preseason for more on that subject . . .HOWEVER, Johnson would have to lose 45% of his fantasy production to fall out of the Top 10 next year, and IMO that will only happen if he gets hurt. And predicting an injury is always a tough thing to bank on one way or the other.

For now I am thinking he will be on the Madden Cover. That could chance. I would still like to stay away and trade down for the likes of Addai or Maroney.

 

[brewer]

For now I am thinking he will be on the Madden Cover. That could chance. I would still like to stay away and trade down for the likes of Addai or Maroney.

Fine, trading down if you really dislike the guys chances next year has some merit. To flat out say you wouldn't take LJ top 5 next year is just plain silly however in my opinion. If you are in a league of 12 guys, I would venture to say that at least 10 of the others would jump for absolute joy to pull him at 5.

 

[Koya]

BTW, with the possibility of Carolina building their offense around D Williams, he might creep into, or at least close to, this conversation.

 

[Futeki]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

Since I have looked into this a fair amount, one of the biggest reasons RB do not do as well the next season is that is highly unlikely that anyone will get 400 carries in a season (whether it be once or consecutively).If LJ's carries/touches go down and his supporting numbers drop by the same percentage, that's typically why players score less fantasy points the following season.

However, in Johnson's case, it is possible that he will see a drop off in carries but not necessarily a dropoff in TDs or YPC. Comparing 06 to 05, LJ had 80 more carries but only 39 more rushing yards and scored 2 fewer TD.

All the hype in the offseason about how Johnson would do projecting him for 16 starts was exactly that--hype. I accurately predicted that his fantasy numbers would be the same as last year (335 in 05 vs 334 in 06) even with all the hoopla about him only starting 12 games last year.

It is possible that LJ's TD numbers stay high, his carries dip some, and his ypc ekes back up (down almost a full yard from 05 to 06). The logic being that staying fresher will help give Johnson better mileage per carry.

I do overall concur that Johnson can really only go down from here next year. See my article on RBs with 400+ touches fromt he preseason for more on that subject . . .

HOWEVER, Johnson would have to lose 45% of his fantasy production to fall out of the Top 10 next year, and IMO that will only happen if he gets hurt. And predicting an injury is always a tough thing to bank on one way or the other.

I am mildly concerned about LJ next year (457 touches so far). However, why isn't anybody concerned about Steven Jackson's 436 touches or LT's 406 touches (and counting)? Is it purely the number of carries as opposed to just total touches?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

01. L. Tomlinson02. L. Johnson03. S. Jackson04. F. Gore05. S. Alexander06. C. Portis07. B. Westbrook08. R. Johnson09. W. Parker10. R. Brownjurb26, you have KJ ranked at 10, but he might not even play next season. Also, people high on MJD shouldn't forget the Jags still have Greg Jones on the roster. A Del Rio favorite. I don't expect MJD to be the clear #1 in JAX just yet, even if Fred Taylor leaves the team (very likely).

Greg Jones has shown absolutely nothing compared to Jones-Drew. If Greg Jones is healthy and still on the roster I wouldn't view him as a threat. Jones-Drew looks to be the real deal.

Also of note, it took Jones 2 full years to fully recover from his previous knee injury.

Also, the Jags just fired their offensive coordinator. Predicting the stats of MJD is difficult at this point.

 

[Banger]

I'll give it a shot....

LT

LJ

Sjax

Gore

Portis

SA

Parker

Rudi

Westy

MJD

 

[David Yudkin]

I would not take LJ top 5 next year.

Unless you are predicting an injury, please explain this thinking.

I would have to assume that he IS predicting injury after all LJ's carries this year.

New NFL record in carries this year to be exact. Not to mention his use in the passing game. Over the years, RBs with 390+ carries have faired very poorly in the year after. LJ is young and a beast, but it would be surprising to see him maintain the workload with no illeffects.

Since I have looked into this a fair amount, one of the biggest reasons RB do not do as well the next season is that is highly unlikely that anyone will get 400 carries in a season (whether it be once or consecutively).If LJ's carries/touches go down and his supporting numbers drop by the same percentage, that's typically why players score less fantasy points the following season.

However, in Johnson's case, it is possible that he will see a drop off in carries but not necessarily a dropoff in TDs or YPC. Comparing 06 to 05, LJ had 80 more carries but only 39 more rushing yards and scored 2 fewer TD.

All the hype in the offseason about how Johnson would do projecting him for 16 starts was exactly that--hype. I accurately predicted that his fantasy numbers would be the same as last year (335 in 05 vs 334 in 06) even with all the hoopla about him only starting 12 games last year.

It is possible that LJ's TD numbers stay high, his carries dip some, and his ypc ekes back up (down almost a full yard from 05 to 06). The logic being that staying fresher will help give Johnson better mileage per carry.

I do overall concur that Johnson can really only go down from here next year. See my article on RBs with 400+ touches fromt he preseason for more on that subject . . .

HOWEVER, Johnson would have to lose 45% of his fantasy production to fall out of the Top 10 next year, and IMO that will only happen if he gets hurt. And predicting an injury is always a tough thing to bank on one way or the other.

I am mildly concerned about LJ next year (457 touches so far). However, why isn't anybody concerned about Steven Jackson's 436 touches or LT's 406 touches (and counting)? Is it purely the number of carries as opposed to just total touches?

The Vegas odds are that LT is due for a breakdown (although that certainly does not ensure that one is forthcoming). He holds the record for most touches through 6 years played with an amazing 2449 touches. The argument made by some people is the severity of the tackles. Some people feel that tough between the tackles carries are more punishing than sweeps or receptions where there may be one or two guys in on a tackle and not a whole pile. Some feel that certain backs avoid hits better or manage to get out of bounds more frequently. I have no way of monitoring that (although some have looked at other sites that apparently track hard hits vs soft hits).

I doubt that there is anything conclussive on any of this and it is more theory than science. But it does seem plausible that the more concentrated work a RB gets the more likely he will get hurt.

However, our stat guru Doug Drinen looked into this and found that players with huge workloads at an early age stand the best chance of reaching career milestones as they are more likely to continue to get the ball a lot. (Although I'm not sure if he factored in health risk or not.)

 

[H.K.]

Rankings are different than how they'll finish. Usually a 40-50% turnover rate:

PPR

1) LJ

2) Alexander

3) Westbrook

4) Addai

5) Sjax

6) LT

7) Portis

8) Gore

9) R.Johnson

10) A.Green

Bolded players were not in the top 10 this season

 

[zamboni]

Rankings are different than how they'll finish. Usually a 40-50% turnover rate:

PPR

1) LJ

2) Alexander

3) Westbrook

4) Addai

5) Sjax

6) LT

7) Portis

8) Gore

9) R.Johnson

10) A.Green

Bolded players were not in the top 10 this season

Very different rankings, which I like considering things obviously don't go as planned. I do think LT is way too low, unless you're predicting an injury.Interesting on Addai - I don't see him at #4, but I think a lot of people are underestimating him in this thread. Particularly if Rhodes leaves via UFA.

 

[switz]

Rankings are different than how they'll finish. Usually a 40-50% turnover rate:

PPR

1) LJ

2) Alexander

3) Westbrook

4) Addai

5) Sjax

6) LT

7) Portis

8) Gore

9) R.Johnson

10) A.Green

Bolded players were not in the top 10 this season

Remind me never to trust your rankings.