2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[Cowboys#1]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.

Up to 91% with Jones, Watson and Keller. Watson finally shows up!

 

[Kleck]

Grant coming through is some good timing with Portis likely out.

 

[Das Boot]

100% just from the gut, so far it's not looking like a high cut line kinda day.

That could change of course based on the 4thQ of the early games and the late games.

Anyone depending solely on Cutler today has to be sweating a bit.

Total WAG for the cut line: 128

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

100% just from the gut, so far it's not looking like a high cut line kinda day.That could change of course based on the 4thQ of the early games and the late games.Anyone depending solely on Cutler today has to be sweating a bit.Total WAG for the cut line: 128

A sub-130 cut at this point in the contest seems like wishful thinking...

 

[EBF]

Well I got 7.5 points from Ricky. That's not terrible. If MJD gives me a big week then I might have a chance to survive this week after all. I've gotten pretty good games from Peyton, Ginn, DeSean, Calvin, ABryant, and Keller so far. I also own Warner, so I'm actually hoping for a down week from him.

 

[Das Boot]

100% just from the gut, so far it's not looking like a high cut line kinda day.That could change of course based on the 4thQ of the early games and the late games.Anyone depending solely on Cutler today has to be sweating a bit.Total WAG for the cut line: 128

A sub-130 cut at this point in the contest seems like wishful thinking...

I agree.I hereby ammend my WAG to 138, which is about avg. for the contest so far - and still much lower than the huge number Drinen's stats were projecting after the Thurs night game (which I fully realize was skewed by the results of that 1 game).

 

[EBF]

I'm sitting at roughly 114.9 with the following players left:

(Warner - 24.2)

(MJD - 0)

(SMoss - 10.9)

(Randle El - 10.9)

(Bruce - 10.9)

(Reg Williams - 10.9)

(Lindell - 0)

(Rams DEF - 3)

Basically, my team's life hinges on MJD, Lindell, and the Rams defense. It's gonna be close.

 

[Kleck]

158.2 after the early games.

 

[H8fulHuck]

163 after the early games. Looking for Warner/Boldin hookup to give it a boost.

Been fun, I hope the ride continues.

 

[OU#1]

170.15 with Warner (-22.45), CJ4.2 (-19.90), Breaston/BJones/MKelly (-13.50), Bironas (-4), and 49ers D (-3) left to go.

See you guys next week!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Sitting at 159.30 after the early games.

Waiting on:

QB

Kurt Warner (-17.20)

RB

Maurice Jones-Drew (-10.50)

Maurice Morris

Clinton Portis

WR

Steve Breaston (-13.50)

Reggie Williams

 

[ctriopelle]

Current FS cut: 121. Looks like I finally ran out of steam keeping away from the Turk. Short of some huge miracles, I'm gonna have a hard time making up ground. Need a HUGE game from KWII, or this is probably my last week...

 

[Alias]

144.35 so far, looking good...

 

[Sol D]

147 According to FantasyStar

Warner -17 (he has 10 points in the 2nd Q)

TO -10

Buf D/SF D -6

Unless something whacked happens I should be moving on. Even with my 45% chance to advance.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

158.50 after the early games.

 

[dbc925]

Just passed 160 near halftime of the 4:00 games. Will probably finish near 170, so I'm feeling safe.

 

[CrossEyed]

Currently at 155. Looks like I might be sweating this one out.

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

153.7 at half time. Anything Witten scores is good and Buffalo (-6)

 

[Sol D]

159

TO -10

Buf D -10

Fantasy Star still showing 121 Est. Cutoff. Any numbers junkies have a better estimate with 2 games to play?

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

159 TO -10Buf D -10Fantasy Star still showing 121 Est. Cutoff. Any numbers junkies have a better estimate with 2 games to play?

It also says the estimate was entered at 5:01. CTR usually updates it after the 4pm games are over.

 

[CrossEyed]

If I get cut because they took that TD away from the Steeler D I am not going to be happy. What illegal forward pass?????

 

[Lupe]

163.25 with noone left.

:sweating:

 

[apalmer]

If I get cut because they took that TD away from the Steeler D I am not going to be happy. What illegal forward pass?????

The lateral from LT actually did drift forward a little, I think, but it wasn't more than a few inches forward if anything. Typical NFL worrying about that.

 

[nashua55]

If I get cut because they took that TD away from the Steeler D I am not going to be happy. What illegal forward pass?????

You got robbed. To tell you the truth I was hoping they would take the TD away becuase that td might have been the thing to eliminate me, but in reality that TD should have counted. Good luck, hopefully you will make it thru anyway.

 

[CrossEyed]

If I get cut because they took that TD away from the Steeler D I am not going to be happy. What illegal forward pass?????

You got robbed. To tell you the truth I was hoping they would take the TD away becuase that td might have been the thing to eliminate me, but in reality that TD should have counted. Good luck, hopefully you will make it thru anyway.

I'm at 159.75 with only Portis (-11.3) to go. Not feeling real confident at the moment. An extra 7 would have been nice.

 

[Alias]

144.35 so far, looking good...

160.85 should be good (I hope)

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

If I get cut because they took that TD away from the Steeler D I am not going to be happy. What illegal forward pass?????

 

[nashua55]

The new cutline is 139.00. I am hanging on by a thread. I have 143.75 with Witten (-11) and Suisham (-0) or Lindell. I think I might be toast.

 

[bengalboy]

172.55 + Cowboys D (-2)

See you week 12!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

186 + Romo - Warner

Look at me; I'm awesome!!!

 

[kevzilla]

FantasyStar projection now at 139. Sitting at 159.85 with Buf D -6 and Braylon Edwards -4.2 remaining.

 

[fasteddie_21]

155 w/ the Barbarian still to go today. Hope I can hold on!

 

[ctriopelle]

Latest cut level is 139.

Sitting at 134.25, plus KWII straight up, Buf D (-5), Santana Moss (-10.9), Dawson (-14), and Romo (-24.45). Definitely gonna be a MNF nail biter, I need KW to have something like last week to get comfortable. I feel pretty confident the cut will land in the high 150's to low 160's if things go to plan.

 

[Glatty]

153.50 with Betts (-11.8) left to go... hoping Fantasy Star's projected cutoff is accurate...

 

[Alberta Clipper]

151 Buf -10, Dawson-6, Portis or Betts -10.9 - (worried but the cut this week might stay down in the 140's).

 

[dbc925]

Re: the San Diego illegal forward pass call

I went back and watched it frame by frame in TiVo and it's obvious that the LT "lateral" was forward.

Although the ball may have traveled backward or on an even plane relative to LT, he was moving forward at the time. The ball left LT's hand just at the 25 yard line, and it was just beyond the 26 when Chambers caught it.

That said, I'm sure there are a lot of unhappy Steelers bettors out there tonight.

 

[apalmer]

Latest cut level is 139. Sitting at 134.25, plus KWII straight up, Buf D (-5), Santana Moss (-10.9), Dawson (-14), and Romo (-24.45). Definitely gonna be a MNF nail biter, I need KW to have something like last week to get comfortable. I feel pretty confident the cut will land in the high 150's to low 160's if things go to plan.

Hope you're right. I'm at 160.45 with Romo (-24.75), Moss (-12.4), and the Buffalo D (-6). Wish they hadn't taken Parker's TD off of him.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

153.50 with Betts (-11.8) left to go... hoping Fantasy Star's projected cutoff is accurate...

The 139 only takes into account the games that have been played. That number is going to rise.

 

[HellToupee]

Latest cut level is 139. . I feel pretty confident the cut will land in the high 150's to low 160's if things go to plan.

Yikes I'm sitting at 160.5 w/Barber(-18.9) and Buffalo(-10)

 

[ctriopelle]

Latest cut level is 139. Sitting at 134.25, plus KWII straight up, Buf D (-5), Santana Moss (-10.9), Dawson (-14), and Romo (-24.45). Definitely gonna be a MNF nail biter, I need KW to have something like last week to get comfortable. I feel pretty confident the cut will land in the high 150's to low 160's if things go to plan.

Hope you're right. I'm at 160.45 with Romo (-24.75), Moss (-12.4), and the Buffalo D (-6). Wish they hadn't taken Parker's TD off of him.

BTW for those of you with Warner, he took a knee 3 times to end the game (-0.3), which isn't showing up on FS. His actual total is 24.45.

 

[ctriopelle]

WOW! Helps to pay attention! I just realized that Portis is going to give it a go tonight (needed to go to a sportsbar to watch Bears/Packers here in Lionsland)! If he can push past Ricky's 6.5 I may have a better chance than I thought!

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

166.25 with Romo (-24.75), Portis (-12.9) and Bills D (-10)

 

[CrossEyed]

Hoping all the Portis injury talk was a smokescreen and he goes nuts tonight.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Sitting at 179.15 and likely finished for the week (only Clinton Portis left, -21.60). Will be going into week 12 pretty healthy.

QB - Jay Cutler vs OAK, Jake Delhomme @ ATL, Kurt Warner vs NYG - No easy matchups, hope for 1 to have a good game

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew vs MIN, Clinton Portis @ SEA, Maurice Morris vs WAS, Ricky Williams vs NE, Leon Washington @ TEN, Ray Rice vs PHI, Steve Slaton @ CLE - Only Portis and Slaton have above average matchups; nice to have 7 to pick from

WR - Brandon Marshall vs OAK, Jerricho Cotchery @ TEN, Steve Smith @ ATL, Derrick Mason vs PHI, Reggie Williams vs MIN, Steve Breaston vs NYG - A decent corps, but a rough week for them

TE - Tony Gonzalez vs BUF, Dustin Keller @ TEN - Nice scores the last few weeks; perhaps they both explode and provide my flex?

K - Kris Brown @ CLE, Jason Hanson vs TB - Weather is getting cold, so it's nice to have 1 kicker in a dome

D - New York Jets @ TEN, Miami Dolphins vs NE - Been averaging double-digits with this cheap duo

Out of all 22 roster spots, I have very few good matchups for week 12. Hoping for a low week.

 

[H8fulHuck]

187 with Portis & DAL left.

See most of you next week.

 

[nashua55]

395 owners that have M. Barber. Barber looks like he is on his way to a monster game. I owned Barber last year and alot of his best production came in the second half. I wouldnt be surprised to see Barber post over 130yd rushing tonight.

 

[Giantseasonticketholder]

The good news: This is my best week so far!!!

The bad news: I was sacked last week.

 

[H8fulHuck]

The good news: This is my best week so far!!!The bad news: I was sacked last week.

The last person to make the cut this week thanks you humbly.

 

[NYRAGE]

163.75 at the half with whatever Barber adds the rest of the way

 

[The Duff Man]

Anyone have a link to the Fantasy Star thing? Can't find it in this monster thread.