Ok how's 237?FantasyStar shows my score at 219. Beat that my friends!
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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
- Start date
ctriopelle
Footballguy
to answer your question, no. Organized Chaos set up a website to get us a sample database for teams. I use that to predict the cut.After the SNF game, the sample prediction is showing a 145.4 number. VERY high if it is accurate. The database high score right now is 237.5, and the 15th percentile score of the database itself is actually 160.6, however this number has always been overstated compared to the real cutoff number. Tomorrow shouldn't move things too far, but we'll see how things shape up.
I'm sitting at 237.75
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Not right now at http://thefantasystar.com , the load was too much for my host with 500+ teams to process all the scores...If you are creative with excel, I have provided all the info in the DB (players, teams, scores) via csv export at http://thefantasystar.com/export/ . This is the data that CTR is using to predict his cutoffs.Is there a way to see all the teams scores without going into each individual profile?several over 230 just on fantasy star...LOTS of big scoring todayFantasyStar shows my score at 219. Beat that my friends!
There are three exports there, one for all the players in the DB (only players in the contest)
One for all the teams, listed by team ID and all players on each team
One for each week's stats for all players in the contest.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
194 with Ward (-21.2) tomorrow...so I think I'm done scoring this weekend. Still looking to break 200 this season. Maybe next week.
Erin Go Bragh
Footballguy
Just moseying along with 178.15 with Heap counting fully and Ray Rice -17.9 on MNF.
Ten of my 22 players are now past their bye weeks.
No player has counted for me all four weeks and only Jerry Porter has yet to count at least once. I have no idea if that is good or bad.
Ten of my 22 players are now past their bye weeks.
No player has counted for me all four weeks and only Jerry Porter has yet to count at least once. I have no idea if that is good or bad.
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nzranger
Footballguy
234.45Ok how's 237?FantasyStar shows my score at 219. Beat that my friends!
(be nice if i could scrape some of the top and use it later..)
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Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
Stayin alive and broke the 200 cherry this week.
Everyone but Betts, Rice & Dawson have now contributed to my scoring after 4 wks.
My DT 3 headed monster of PHI/BUF/SEA has managed to score 12+ each week so far. Hope they keep it up.
Everyone but Betts, Rice & Dawson have now contributed to my scoring after 4 wks.
My DT 3 headed monster of PHI/BUF/SEA has managed to score 12+ each week so far. Hope they keep it up.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I am over 200, first time ever for me including previous years.
radiohead417
Footballguy
158.65 + Santonio Holmes (-1.6)
Thank you Zach Miller!
Thank you Zach Miller!
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Unofficial pre-MNF cut line would be 133.55.
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
could be the non-Warner/Slaton/Breaston purge week... don't think many of the teams without 2-3 of those guys will pull it off due to the byes this week...
ctriopelle
Footballguy
That's a bit more what I was expecting! Not sure what is driving our cut to be so much higher, other than possibly a high concentration of teams with a bunch of the value plays for this week that scored out of the park.I was hoping last week wasn't a fluke, but maybe it was. I'll see if more tweaking is possible....
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Im not so sure - 21 points in a PPR league isnt that big of a number. Combine that with Breaston's 11.5% ownership level and I think purge might be too strong a word.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
We've added about 60 more teams since last week and you have to figure that these are A. teams that are still in it and B. care enough to input their rostersC. doing well enough to input their rosterI obviously dont know stats like you do, but I'd expect that considering the above it probably requires the fudge factor in your spreadsheet to increase as the top teams start adding themselves to the DB.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I have two guys who have contributed every week (D. Jackson & J. Kasay) and three guys who have never contributed (R. Rice, B. Utecht & N. Rackers).
I'd expect Rackers to outscore Kasay eventually and I only have Utecht playing next week with Shockey out and Keller on a bye. I hope he beats zero.
I'd expect Rackers to outscore Kasay eventually and I only have Utecht playing next week with Shockey out and Keller on a bye. I hope he beats zero.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
178.6 with no one left;
feeling a little bit better after making it last week by less than a point.
feeling a little bit better after making it last week by less than a point.
rick6668
Footballguy
152.35 with Rice to go (Needs greater than 4.7 to count)I have none of those 3 above, and with a zero from Westbrook and a 4.7 from MBIII, if I can make it through, I'll feel better going forward.
pinda
Footballguy
i hear you, got really luck with Braylon, Meachem, Zach Miller, Slaton, Jets defense and Breaston, yes I said Breaston
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ok stat geeks, if you really want to impress us, give us the
Hochuli Factor
how many teams moved on because of his mistake in Denver
and
how many teams will be hurt by his call that brought back a Carolina defensive TD
Hochuli Factor
how many teams moved on because of his mistake in Denver
and
how many teams will be hurt by his call that brought back a Carolina defensive TD
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Player Pos Team W1 W2 W3 W4
Donovan McNabb QB PHI 36.35 22.05 14.80 18.10
Tony Romo QB DAL 21.00 32.60 18.00 32.70
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 7.00 11.70 24.60 5.90
Steve Slaton RB HOU 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60
Kevin Smith RB DET 16.00 8.10 1.40 0.00
Fred Taylor RB JAC 3.20 5.90 14.00 6.10
Ricky Williams RB MIA 5.90 3.40 12.90 0.00
Clinton Portis RB WAS 8.40 22.90 15.70 14.50
Arnaz Battle WR SF 2.60 8.40 7.00 19.00
Donald Driver WR GB 7.80 18.20 11.60 1.80
DeSean Jackson WR PHI 16.60 17.00 9.10 21.60
Brandon Marshall WR DEN 0.00 40.60 27.50 20.70
Muhsin Muhammad WR CAR 11.60 10.90 5.50 28.70
Steve Smith WR CAR 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60
Maurice Stovall WR TB 0.00 0.00 3.60 0.00
Anthony Fasano TE MIA 26.40 0.00 17.10 0.00
Dustin Keller TE NYJ 0.00 3.40 16.10 9.90
Ben Utecht TE CIN 4.00 0.00 0.00 4.00
Mike Nugent K NYJ 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Prater K DEN 13.00 10.00 11.00 20.00
Philadelphia Defense DEF PHI 4.00 10.00 17.00 12.00
Tennessee Defense DEF TEN 13.00 11.00 15.00 12.00
Total Points: 33.40 178.30 174.30 203.30
Actual Cutoff: 112.85 132.60 133.60
Projected Cutoff: 112.85 133.53 133.10 145.40
Donovan McNabb QB PHI 36.35 22.05 14.80 18.10
Tony Romo QB DAL 21.00 32.60 18.00 32.70
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 7.00 11.70 24.60 5.90
Steve Slaton RB HOU 6.40 0.00 20.40 21.60
Kevin Smith RB DET 16.00 8.10 1.40 0.00
Fred Taylor RB JAC 3.20 5.90 14.00 6.10
Ricky Williams RB MIA 5.90 3.40 12.90 0.00
Clinton Portis RB WAS 8.40 22.90 15.70 14.50
Arnaz Battle WR SF 2.60 8.40 7.00 19.00
Donald Driver WR GB 7.80 18.20 11.60 1.80
DeSean Jackson WR PHI 16.60 17.00 9.10 21.60
Brandon Marshall WR DEN 0.00 40.60 27.50 20.70
Muhsin Muhammad WR CAR 11.60 10.90 5.50 28.70
Steve Smith WR CAR 0.00 0.00 11.00 21.60
Maurice Stovall WR TB 0.00 0.00 3.60 0.00
Anthony Fasano TE MIA 26.40 0.00 17.10 0.00
Dustin Keller TE NYJ 0.00 3.40 16.10 9.90
Ben Utecht TE CIN 4.00 0.00 0.00 4.00
Mike Nugent K NYJ 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Prater K DEN 13.00 10.00 11.00 20.00
Philadelphia Defense DEF PHI 4.00 10.00 17.00 12.00
Tennessee Defense DEF TEN 13.00 11.00 15.00 12.00
Total Points: 33.40 178.30 174.30 203.30
Actual Cutoff: 112.85 132.60 133.60
Projected Cutoff: 112.85 133.53 133.10 145.40
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Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Moving on to week 5 with 200+. Although I do not own Westbrook or MB3, I hope many advance. Here are my week's low scoring/no scoring RB's I'd like to see eliminated at a decent rate this week:
Maurice Jones-Drew, Maurice Morris, Leon Washington, and Ricky Williams.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Maurice Morris, Leon Washington, and Ricky Williams.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Safe with 201.10 points this week. I've been lucky so far and haven't scored less than 185 points in any week.
I thought Jake Delhomme (26.70) or David Garrard (27.90) would finally score for me this week, but Kurt Warner (32.60) rebounded from a horrific day to score a lot of points.
Zach Miller finally had a big day (23.00), but I think these kinds of games will be rare. He has the talent, but Oakland doesn't want to throw the ball a lot.
I love my team, and my WRs are very strong. But I think RBs will be my undoing. After Marion Barber, I only have Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, and Ray Rice. I really need Slaton to keep up his current pace.
I thought Jake Delhomme (26.70) or David Garrard (27.90) would finally score for me this week, but Kurt Warner (32.60) rebounded from a horrific day to score a lot of points.
Zach Miller finally had a big day (23.00), but I think these kinds of games will be rare. He has the talent, but Oakland doesn't want to throw the ball a lot.
I love my team, and my WRs are very strong. But I think RBs will be my undoing. After Marion Barber, I only have Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, and Ray Rice. I really need Slaton to keep up his current pace.
www.thefantasystar.comI'm at 187.55, been somewhat consistent, averaging 173.4 for the 4 weeks with a low of 161.05 and a high of 187.55, if I stay this consistent, I should be okay, but it'd be nice to have some breakout games. Hopefully, those breakout games are being held back for weeks 13 - 16 (assuming I'm fortunate enough to make it that far)It's time for Ryan Grant to step up and be counted for! I wonder how many fellow Grant owners have bit the dust, and how many remain. All I can say is, thank god for Slaton!
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
There are 554 of the original 979 Ryan Grant owners still alive in the contest.
Wow, that was quick service, this place is even more awesome then I previously realized!
Here's hoping more of the 554 falter this week, and that he has a huge second half like he did last year (at least for me)
Lash
Footballguy
no warner/breaston here but i do have Slaton but this will be the first week I could potentially use his score201 with Holmes trying to outscore Slaton tonitePrater/Titans defense are goldwas 29th last week but don't know where 201 will fall (if 238 is weekly high)only bad news is my only other kicker is Nugent so bye week for Prater could be a zero ETA: nevermind, slaton is in, Holmes (-11) is trying to outscore Forte, i misread itWisWolvrns said:
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Big Score
Footballguy
Thanx for the heads up Doug.Doug Drinen said:
Even though CTR constantly questioned the accuracy of the projected cutoff & made sure he said it was over stated compared to the true cutoff number would be, I was still sweating bullets with a 147 score & only Santonio Holmes (- 2.10).Utter Chaos
Footballguy
I think I might be the only person that can say this:
Thanks to Marty Booker and Greg Olsen I should be through to the next round with 155.10.
Thanks to Marty Booker and Greg Olsen I should be through to the next round with 155.10.
fasteddie_21
2006 NM Poker Champ
Kevin Walter carried me along w/ Zach Miller and Owen Daniels this week.
Superdbs
Footballguy
I have the exact same backs, kinda nervous about them as well. Warner, Cutler and Romo have been carrying me at QB and Marshall and Cal Johnson are doing the heavy lifting at WR, but between my backs, TE's and Colston being out, it could get rough.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Totally. I forgot to mention Fred Taylor
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I went with Taylor and MJD because they are pretty good for this format. One week one guy goes off and the other blows. In a Best ball format that works well. Not this year when they are the suck 3 of 4 games. Slaton and Portis are carrying me. Getting Steve Smith and Marshall back helps me a lot. As well as crabbing Mushin to backup Steve Smith while he was suspended....So far, my busts are Utect, Hugent, RWilliams, and Stoval. Even Arnaz Battle got me 19 last week...Totally. I forgot to mention Fred Taylor
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Jax's schedule starts to get better soon, so I am encouraged about their prospects for a few of these contests. Still some tough defenses left, but some real softies, as wellI went with Taylor and MJD because they are pretty good for this format. One week one guy goes off and the other blows. In a Best ball format that works well. Not this year when they are the suck 3 of 4 games. Slaton and Portis are carrying me. Getting Steve Smith and Marshall back helps me a lot. As well as crabbing Mushin to backup Steve Smith while he was suspended....So far, my busts are Utect, Hugent, RWilliams, and Stoval. Even Arnaz Battle got me 19 last week...Totally. I forgot to mention Fred Taylor
ittsburghDenverClevelandCincinattiDetroitTennesseeMinnesotaHoustonChicagoGreen BayIndianapolisBlatimore
ctriopelle
Footballguy
With the pre MNF cut already established at 133ish, anyone over 145 is definitely safe, and 140 is probably a good number. Unless something really odd happens tonight, this should be a +5ish MNF bump.I had a bunch of stuff to do today, so I still haven't been able to look at what happened with the prediction this week. I did have a small mistake from not updating the advancing %(which oddly was off last week too yet we still hit it on the head), but that won't fix the problem in total. I'm planning on doing a player % comparison of our rosters to the total contest, but that will be complicated with the way I set it up.Anyone who is still alive that wants us to be more accurate should set up their team, and make sure it's put in correct. It would also be helpful if you killed any teams that are just "woulda/shoulda/coulda" that aren't real entries. By getting a better sample and limiting it to only real entries, we should get a better approximation. The deeper we go in the contest, the more helpful this will be.Since it currently is very laborious to filter out for legal teams, I unfortunately won't be updating the sample for a bit. OC is working on putting an export filter in to fix this, so once that is in place we will re-sample.Thanx for the heads up Doug.Even though CTR constantly questioned the accuracy of the projected cutoff & made sure he said it was over stated compared to the true cutoff number would be, I was still sweating bullets with a 147 score & only Santonio Holmes (- 2.10).
EFD
Footballguy
I figured I may be in trouble this week (after coming in at #50 last week), but according to that site (thanks!) I'm at 178.95, so I guess I live to fight another weekend.
I have to say I'm digging my WR corp of TO, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson & Santana Moss so far. And I like the Brees/Cutler combo at QB. RB is my weak spot with Bush & MJD backed up by Slaton, though.
I have to say I'm digging my WR corp of TO, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson & Santana Moss so far. And I like the Brees/Cutler combo at QB. RB is my weak spot with Bush & MJD backed up by Slaton, though.
Liquid Courage
Footballguy
183.80 for week 4. Should be safe.
Thought I was in big trouble with M. Barber and MJD having an off week. But the Super values of Warner/Slaton/Jets D; saved my butt for this week.
Still, my WR corp are a bunch of turds. I think they will eventually spell my doom. Every year, I say, "This year, I'm really going to put some effort in the FBG subscriber contest." and every year I end up throwing something together at the last minute just to get it in time.
Next year, though.... I'm really going to put some effort in to the FBG contest....
Thought I was in big trouble with M. Barber and MJD having an off week. But the Super values of Warner/Slaton/Jets D; saved my butt for this week.
Still, my WR corp are a bunch of turds. I think they will eventually spell my doom. Every year, I say, "This year, I'm really going to put some effort in the FBG subscriber contest." and every year I end up throwing something together at the last minute just to get it in time.
Next year, though.... I'm really going to put some effort in to the FBG contest....
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Thanks
montana_grizzly_bears
Footballguy
Looking at my roster 22 bucks in dead money right now but score is up at least 8 points each week. LBooker, DHester, ADavis, JJones, and RTorain. Not to bad but hopefully it doesn't come back to bite me later. Love the program over at fantasystar too.
