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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest

148.45 with CJ4.2 (-11.6) and Bironas (0) to go. Go ahead and take the week off DMac. :rolleyes:

My WR's stepped up in ADP's absense. Even Mark Bradley who sadly didn't count for me. ;)

See you guys in week 9! Only Schmitty, JStew, and Niners D left for byes! :confused:

 
196.85, will be higher when Walter (and maybe Slaton) gets counted and I get a kicker score tomorrow (Vinatiari, Gould and Prater on bye)

Warner, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Santana Moss, and Steve Smith did well today.

eta 207.95 with Walter

 
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Organized Chaos said:
ctriopelle said:
bengalboy said:
Any word on the cut before MNF? I'm sitting at 147. Gonna be close huh?
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unfortunately, the HOU/CIN scores aren't calculating, so that would make for a problem in the fantasystar estimate. I have a PM in to OC to fix things so that gets cleaned up.
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I think I have this fixed, the next batch of scores run in 8 minutes and we should see some Hou scores.
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Yeah, it's fixed now.. All score have been updated also.
 
175 with harrison left for tomorrow night. feel pretty comfortable with moving on. i think i am about 4 weeks further than i have ever gone in previous contests...

 
I don't know if I'll skate by this week, but if I do, it's nothing short of an early Christmas miracle.

With Romo, McFadden and Shockey out or ineffective due to injury, with Peterson, Marshall, Jennings and Minn D on bye, I needed every double digit point scored by Warner, R. Williams, R. Rice, S. Slaton, J. Cotchery, D. Henderson, J. Hill (Jason freakin' Hill even got off the couch to score for me this week) and Lindell. Even Keller chipped in with 9.8.

Sitting at 139.35, done for the week.

:fingerscrossed:

 
157 with Tennessee D (-4) remaining. Pretty sure this will get me through. And that's without having a Kicker this week (brain fart on the bye week).

 
bengalboy said:
If I get by this week (147), I still have to gasp for air next week with Gore and Brees on the bye. I'll need Warner/Schaub/Portis/Slaton to come up big in week 9 in order to stay alive.

kevzilla said:
I think 147 will be fine. I'm around 142. The Turk will post the unofficial pre-MNF cutoff in the predawn hours on Monday.
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With no SNF game, the Turk might be nice and post yet tonight...that may be a good thing with what the fantasystar DB is showing....143 :goodposting:In the barn with 177.65 here, on to week 9, but definitely starting to contend with injury issues here..
 
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Looks like the pre-MNF projections from FantasyStar is 143.00.

edit: what ctriopelle said

 
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Robbie Cooper said:
157 with Tennessee D (-4) remaining. Pretty sure this will get me through. And that's without having a Kicker this week (brain fart on the bye week).
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I'm with you at 157. Ricky Williams finally got into the action. Everyone by Nugent have now contributed to the cause. Hope this is enough.
 
Finished at 181. My RB's of Willie Parker, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones and S. Slaton have been pretty much a disaster. Hopefully Parker will play soon and Grant will continue to improve.

 
3 QB's all over 30 and I am coming up short. Sitting at 135 with a cutoff projected at 143, but, and it's a big butt, I have LenDale going on Monday. Come on run the freaking ball.

Swamp

 
How many points will the cut increase by for tomorrow night? Any projections based on the two teams that are playing? I'm at 150.95 and am feeling a little insecure about my chances. Shame too, because I was in 4th place in the power rankings. I knew weeks 8 & 9 could do me in though. How many points does the MNF gme usually add to the cutt-off?

swampdog said:
3 QB's all over 30 and I am coming up short. Sitting at 135 with a cutoff projected at 143, but, and it's a big butt, I have LenDale going on Monday. Come on run the freaking ball.Swamp
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I'm toast w/136.95 & proj. cut at 143 with only Chris Johnson left. Stinking Santonio Holmes

 
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per Fantasy Star, in the clubhouse at 160.65... (I think I will lose .6 for Steve Smith's (CAR) negative rushing yards), but I feel that should still let me make the cut at 160.05...

I'm shocked they have the projected cut at 143, but I have no science behind it, just my opinion and knowledge of all the Cutler/Romo, etc owners that had players missing.

 
I'm shocked that the cut is so high with all the injured studs and bye week blues. The highest cut-off to date has been 139 and it's already at 143 without the IND/TEN game. Here's a list of guys missing in action that SHOULD have lowered the cut-off this week:

Tony Romo

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Steven Jackson

Matt Forte

Aaron Rodgers

Greg Jennings

Ryan Grant

A. Peterson

Matt Hasselbeck

Lawrence Marooney

Santonio Holmes

Larry Johnson

Willie Parker

...Not to mention a banged up:

Jeremy Shockey

M. Colston

Plaxico Burress

Darren McFadden

Warrick Dunn

Jason Witten

...and terrible performances by:

Julius Jones

Big Ben

T. Owens

Torry Holt

and still the pre MNF cut is 143? CRAZY!

 
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...forgot Joseph Addai, CHI defense & MIN defense

bengalboy said:
I'm shocked that the cut is so high with all the injured studs and bye week blues. The highest cut-off to date has been 139 and it's already at 143 without the IND/TEN game. Here's a list of guys missing in action that SHOULD have lowered the cut-off this week:Tony RomoBrandon MarshallJay CutlerSteven JacksonMatt ForteAaron RodgersGreg JenningsRyan GrantA. PetersonMatt HasselbeckLawrence MarooneySantonio HolmesLarry JohnsonWillie Parker ...Not to mention a banged up:Jeremy ShockeyM. ColstonPlaxico Burress Darren McFaddenWarrick DunnJason Witten ...and terrible performances by:Julius JonesBig BenT. OwensTorry Holtand still the pre MNF cut is 143? CRAZY!
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I'm right at about 169 with Chris Johnson left... I think I'm OK.

Time for Orton to light up the Lions at home with Brees off next week.

 
levinakl said:
per Fantasy Star, in the clubhouse at 160.65... (I think I will lose .6 for Steve Smith's (CAR) negative rushing yards), but I feel that should still let me make the cut at 160.05...I'm shocked they have the projected cut at 143, but I have no science behind it, just my opinion and knowledge of all the Cutler/Romo, etc owners that had players missing.
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The science is pretty basic in that we calculate the scores of all the live teams that we extracted from the database back when we started projections, and then use some simple statistics formulas for normal distributions to find the Xth percentile of the our live scores. (where x is the % being cut this week). It should work fantastically with the live sample size we have (currently 214 teams), but unfortunately, our sample isn't exactly random (it is populated with teams that tend to be more successful than the general contest), and that causes accuracy problems. There is also no guarantee that every live team in the database is a real team in the contest, as some people have admittedly entered what-if variations of their team (and we don't know what ones those are). All we could check for was that the roster was valid at the time of submission (about 100 of the original 500+ were not). I also have never updated the sample to include recently added teams, because it is a several hour task to reformat the database to allow me to score every team simultaneously.Most weeks the result is pretty close, and if nothing else, it gives a general idea for whether or not scoring is higher or lower for a given week. Once DD gives us insight into where the pre-MNF cut is, I can also use an adjustment factor that has given us decent accuracy in estimating the MNF cut right after the game is over.I also feel the 143 number is pretty high, but remember that we are cutting 22.5% of teams this week and that is the most to date. There are also only 4 teams on bye this week (due to the HOU reschedule), and that gives us more players to help offset the injuries.Whatever DD's pre-MNF cut is, this week should give us a 5-10 point rise at most from his number. With 2 extra teams going already, rosters should be more full than usual. Someone will also probably post the highest %owned numbers for tomorrow too, so that people close to the cut can figure out who is going to advance things the fastest.eta...I was typing this response as DD put his number on the thread. You can be pretty confident if you're over 150 based on his reply, and 145 will probably fly...
 
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btw...using Dodd's projections on the fs database adjusted to Drinen's current value, the cut only rises about 3 points. Basically, the players left don't look to significantly add to many rosters at this point. All this is dependent on players hitting the projections though, and we could have another game like last week where things went completely differently than the plan.

 
164.55 ... made it! Down Santonio, Marshall, and Cutler I was a bit worried but next week with Gore down we'll see. At this point had I guessed right with one more viable RB/WR other than Selvin and Sidney Rice I'd be in really good shape.

QB - Jay Cutler - 14

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

QB - Matt Ryan - 4

QB - Kyle Orton - 4

RB - Frank Gore - 49

RB - Selvin Young - 21

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Derrick Ward - 5

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Steve Smith - 23

WR - Sidney Rice - 11

WR - DeSean Jackson - 4

TE - Zach Miller - 15

TE - Anthony Fasano - 3

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

PK - Jason Hanson - 1

TD - Buffalo Bills - 3

TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

 
163... and looking forward to at least one more week of action!

Week 9 could be my demise though with LT and Vincent on BYE... plus I'll only have 1 kicker and defense... and MBIII has a tough matchup. Hopefully Cutler and Marshall can heat back up after the BYE.

 
No players in tomorrow night's game, but will be moving on with 188.85.

Used 8 times - Clinton Portis

Used 7 times - Tony Gonzalez

Used 6 times - Steve Smith (CAR), Steve Breaston

Used 5 times - Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton, Jerricho Cotchery, Miami Dolphins defense

Used 4 times - Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Kris Brown, Jason Hanson

Used 3 times - Kurt Warner, Leon Washington, New York Jets defense

Used 2 times - None

Used 1 time - Jake Delhomme, Ray Rice, Reggie Williams, Dustin Keller

Not used - Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams

Have been lucky as far as injuries go (knock on wood). Had a scare with Portis once again, but he seems to be fine for week 9. Was nice to see Cotchery and Mason active for this week, although would've preferred a bad game for Cotchery in order to whittle down the field (didn't get to use the 13.20 points from Reggie Williams). Ricky has scored 12 or more points three times, but has yet to count for me. Also didn't get to use either of Rice's double digit games. Only remaining players with upcoming byes are Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith (week 9) and Clinton Portis (week 10).

Will be riding with the following players in week 9:

QB - Jay Cutler vs MIA, Kurt Warner @ STL - Both are nice matchups, so should get 1 decent score between them.

RB - Clinton Portis vs PIT, Maurice Jones-Drew @ CIN, Steve Slaton @ MIN, Leon Washington @ BUF, Ray Rice @ CLE, Ricky Williams @ DEN, Maurice Morris vs PHI - Tough matchups for Portis, Slaton, and Morris. Decent matchups for the rest.

WR - Brandon Marshall vs MIA, Jerricho Cotchery @ BUF, Derrick Mason @ CLE, Steve Breaston @ STL, Reggie Williams @ CIN - All look to be good matchups, and nice to have 2 QB/WR combos going.

TE - Tony Gonzalez vs TB, Dustin Keller @ BUF - Tough weeks for both. KC can't afford to waste Gonzo in run/pass-blocking situations, so hopefully he has another good game.

K - Kris Brown @ MIN, Jason Hanson @ CHI - Both are away games, but at least 1 is in a dome.

D - Jets @ BUF, Dolphins @ DEN - Have averaged less than 9PPG with this duo, and that's even with 25 by NYJ in week 4. I'll keep my expectations low once again, but at least I have 2 chances at 1 decent score.

Highly owned players off week 9 (anyone over 10%):

QB - Tony Romo (26% - doubt he plays, since he has a bye in week 10), Drew Brees (25%), Jake Delhomme (16%)

RB - DeAngelo Williams (14%)

WR - Steve Smith (23%), Muhsin Muhammad (17%), Marques Colston (13%), Devery Henderson (12%), Robert Meachem (11%)

TE - Only 6 TE's owned at least 10%; Ben Utecht (14%) has missed last 2 weeks

K - Mike Nugent (26% - shocking he is 2nd most owned kicker and hasn't played since week 1), Nate Kaeding (11%)

D - Saints (16%), 49ers (12%)

 
139.50 with Tenn. defense left to play, the holding call on Colon when Washington would have scored his second TD of the day may be the difference :thumbup: :fingerscrossed:

 
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[icon] said:
160+ with Chris JOhnson going on MNF :lmao:
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:thumbdown: same here, I also have Crumpler but I doubt that will matter.Steve Smith and Warner had good weeks for me, and all of my other starters had more than 10 points, despite Marshall, Cutler, and Holmes being out. :)
 
It's time to bid a fond farewell to Fourteenkickerguy. He sits at 125.45 with only Vinatieri and Bironas left (-14). How amazing was his run? Well, he played this game with a guaranteed zero at flex every week, and also a guaranteed zero at WR3 since week 2. He was playing with only 8 players since week 2.

 
RIP 14 Kicker Guy.

Watching his run was almost as much fun as watching my own. I am moving on to week 9. My team has been very strong every week, but my last minute switch from Lynch to Portis has been very good for my team but pairing him MBIII will make week 10 very difficult for me to survive 10. Anything can happen, and it has been great fun reading every post of a 50 page thread over the last 2 monts.

:rolleyes:

 
Doug Drinen said:
Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 134.70
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Can anyone tell me the percent of owners left who have Chris Johnson (I'm at work, so the site is blocked for me)?Sitting at 130.5 with only CJ -13 left :rolleyes: Do I even have a chance if Johnson blows up tonight and puts up 25-30 pts (my score would be ~145)??
 
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