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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

Alberta Clipper said:
Fellow toast.... 151 Buf DT (-10) and Dawson (-6) :fishing:

a_troll00 said:
Well, I'm at 154 with Buffalo D (-11) to go. My squad is toast. Anyways, it was fun while it lasted.
:lol:17 points out of Dawson and you are probably still alive. 16 and there is still a chance (which is what he had last week). Plus if Buffalo gets a return TD, they could break 10 pts and help.The cut is likely to be around 161, so I wouldn't cash out just yet.
Dawson has 15 so far.With Buffalo-D and Winslow being very pedestrian tonight, there is a good chance you move on.
 
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Jayrod said:
Fellow toast.... 151 Buf DT (-10) and Dawson (-6) :nerd:

Well, I'm at 154 with Buffalo D (-11) to go. My squad is toast. Anyways, it was fun while it lasted.
:lmao:17 points out of Dawson and you are probably still alive. 16 and there is still a chance (which is what he had last week). Plus if Buffalo gets a return TD, they could break 10 pts and help.The cut is likely to be around 161, so I wouldn't cash out just yet.
Dawson has 15 so far.With Buffalo-D and Winslow being very pedestrian tonight, there is a good chance you move on.
Well There was the return
 
I'm sure you noticed the comment was made BEFORE the BUF return TD. They are also only up to about 7 pts which is barely starting to help some and still nothing to others.

 
I'm sure you noticed the comment was made BEFORE the BUF return TD. They are also only up to about 7 pts which is barely starting to help some and still nothing to others.
Another PAT and another FG now puts Dawson at 19.I'd bet you are safe now with around 164 pts.
 
That near pick would have put me at 162. Now I am at 160. I will need a few more defensive points to move on. Come on Buffalo D!

 
ctriopelle said:
Well boys and girls, I have to get up early tomorrow, so I won't be doing any cutoff updates tonight. Based on how things look, I'd doubt it pushes beyond 161, right in line with the sim prediction. Good luck, and see you all next year, my ship has sunk...
Doh. Thanks for your contributions to the thread.
 
Simulator results...

Before the Thursday game:

Code:
Surv%	  #  Surv	Pct--------------------------90--99	12	12   100.080--89   176   144	81.870--79   340   252	74.160--69   398   254	63.850--59   366   206	56.340--49   193	98	50.830--39	92	32	34.820--29	26	 6	23.110--19	 3	 0	 0.0 0-- 9	 0	 0
And after the Thursday game, which also included an adjustment to Portis:
Code:
Surv%	  #  Surv	Pct--------------------------90--99	91	91   100.080--89   214   198	92.570--79   297   229	77.160--69   324   209	64.550--59   257   124	48.240--49   214	97	45.330--39   144	46	31.920--29	50	 8	16.010--19	14	 2	14.3 0-- 9	 1	 0	 0.0
 
I think I started Thursday at a 43.4% chance to survive and ended up scoring 167.6. Made it farther than I have in the last 2 years. Though I think this is my last week. Only scored above 170 once in the contest and I'm sure the cut line will be around the mid 170's. Here's to lady luck showing up for me. GL this week all.

 
It's down to the final 1000, with a 50% elimination rate for each of the next 2 weeks.

Used 9 times - Clinton Portis, Tony Gonzalez

Used 8 times - Steve Breaston

Used 7 times - Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Derrick Mason, Jets D

Used 6 times - Brandon Marshall, Jason Hanson

Used 5 times - Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Kris Brown

Used 4 times - Dolphins D

Used 3 times - Leon Washington, Dustin Keller

Used 2 times - Ray Rice

Used 1 time - Jake Delhomme, Ricky Williams, Reggie Williams

Full-time benchwarmer - Maurice Morris

Live ownership percentages

92.1 Steve Slaton

81.9 Kurt Warner

65.5 Ricky Williams

60.1 Dustin Keller

57.3 Ray Rice

54.8 Brandon Marshall

36.6 Jerricho Cotchery

35.4 Jay Cutler

26.6 Clinton Portis

26.2 Jason Hanson

24.6 Steve Smith

20.1 Steve Breaston

17.6 Kris Brown

15.9 Jake Delhomme

14.9 Derrick Mason

13.7 Maurice Jones-Drew

12.5 Dolphins D

10.4 Jets D

6.8 Maurice Morris

6.2 Reggie Williams

6.1 Tony Gonzalez

4.2 Leon Washington

I wonder if Steve Slaton can get to 100% ownership by the start of the playoffs. It's very possible, as there are only 79 people left that don't own him.

 
My team is like the 53rd man on the team, I still have a jersey and playbook, but I'm pretty sure that I won't be making the trip out of camp.

I cannot regret the selection of Darren McFadden enough.

 
Just a quick team rundown of those Joe Bryant wish you didn't know moments.....

McNabb has a bazillion pass attempts and only one TD with 3 ints (just one less is all I needed or another 17 yards)

Antonio Bryant scores a TD that was called back (and that would have been more than enough),

Slaton rushes for 156 and a TD, but has nary a one reception (and one was all I needed),

Bryant was my flex at 11.8 and I had Santonio Holmes at 11.3, Kevin Walter at 10.9, SeSean Jackson at 10.9, & Chris Johnson at 10.8, any one of which just needed a couple more points...

The Cards DST had two sacks, three ints and a FR (just one more anything would have done it)

Portis played and undoubtedly could have walked in for a score in the first quarter, but a first down pass denies him the chance and he finished at 8.4

and missed the cut by 0.80

Congrats to all who continue and may the KARMA be with you!

 
Lovin my squad; would probably be better off without Romo (ytd anyway)

All 3 QBs used at least 3 times (Warner, Orton, Romo - the least!)

All 5 RBs used at least 3 times (Parker, TJones, CJ3, Ricky, Slaton)

All 6 WRs used at least 2 times except Colston (LarryFitz, BMarshall, Marvin, ReggieW, KWalter).

All 4 TEs used at least 2 times (Olsen, Royal, Fasano, Keller)

Strong kicking with Crosby and Bironis; strong D with Bears (and Rams :wolf: )

 
Well, my team with a 20% chance of finishing top 10 had it made the finals got cooked by some bad breaks. Made it close with some late Winslow/Dawson/Buff D heroics, but unfortunately I got beat by a nullified TD for Antonio Bryant. I'm sure there are a few people with the Pit D that feel worse, as that was a legit TD...

As Kramer said......I'M OUT!!! :confused:

I'll try to keep up with the Fstar updates, but unfortunately my motivation won't be quite as strong...

 
Another installment of "The Extreme Teams"

1QB - 3 teams

6QB's - 1 team

Least spent - $5

Most spent - $71

3RB's - 1 team

9RB's - 1 team

Least spent - $37

Most spent - $132

3WR's - 1 team

10WR's - 4 teams

Least spent - $55

Most spent - $161

1TE - 17 teams

4TE's - 14 teams

Least spent - $2

Most spent - $61

1K - 19 teams

6K's - 2 teams

Least spent - $1

Most spent - $21

1D - 25 teams

5D's - 9 teams

Least spent - $1

Most spent - $26

FYI on overall team makeups

1QB (.3%), 2QB (29.4%), 3QB (65.8%), 4QB (4.5%), 5QB (.3%), 6QB (.1%)

3RB (.1%), 4RB (5.6%), 5RB (33.7%), 6RB (44.9%), 7RB (13.7%), 8RB (2.3%), 9RB (.1%)

3WR (.1%), 4WR (.6%), 5WR (13.8%), 6WR (38.6%), 7WR (33.2%), 8WR (11.3%), 9WR (2.4%), 10WR (.4%)

1TE (1.7%), 2TE (63.8%), 3TE (33.5%), 4TE (1.4%)

1K (1.9%), 2K (66.0%), 3K (28.3%), 4K (3.9%), 5K (.1%), 6K (.2%)

1D (2.5%), 2D (67.7%), 3D (26.4%), 4D (2.9%), 5D (.9%)

 
Live ownership percentages

92.1 Steve Slaton

81.9 Kurt Warner

65.5 Ricky Williams

60.1 Dustin Keller

57.3 Ray Rice

54.8 Brandon Marshall

36.6 Jerricho Cotchery

i have all of these except for slaton and rice

 
Live ownership percentages

92.1 Steve Slaton

81.9 Kurt Warner

65.5 Ricky Williams

60.1 Dustin Keller

57.3 Ray Rice

54.8 Brandon Marshall

36.6 Jerricho Cotchery

i have all of these except for slaton and rice
I might not be unique, but I'm still alive.
 
10 weeks of fun for me this year as it's time to go home. Last year I made it 9 weeks, this year a little better. Bottom line my WRs hurt me as Owens and Holmes did not have the seasons I expected. Good luck to those remaining.

 
Live ownership percentages92.1 Steve Slaton81.9 Kurt Warner65.5 Ricky Williams60.1 Dustin Keller57.3 Ray Rice54.8 Brandon Marshall36.6 Jerricho Cotcheryi have all of these except for slaton and rice
Probably bad I have all those guys
 
At 136 with Lynch (0.10) so I would need a night like he had Week 3 with about 25 points to squeek in this week.
That's what I'm talking about! Lynch's 28.7 gives me 165.25 :confused: After a near scare in week 2 of just making the cutoff by .5 I'm just riding the bandwagon as long as I can.
 
If you are bored, try to find a team that has the most in common with your own. For me, it's 13 players (2 separate teams):

QB - Kurt Warner

RB - Clinton Portis, Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton

WR - Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Steve Smith, Steve Breaston

TE - Tony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller

D - Jets

QB - Kurt Warner

RB - Clinton Portis, Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton

WR - Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Steve Smith, Derrick Mason

TE - Tony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller

K - Kris Brown

There may be others that I didn't spot.

 
Another installment of "The Extreme Teams"

1QB - 3 teams

6QB's - 1 team

Least spent - $5

Most spent - $71

3RB's - 1 team

9RB's - 1 team

Least spent - $37

Most spent - $132

3WR's - 1 team

10WR's - 4 teams

Least spent - $55

Most spent - $161

1TE - 17 teams

4TE's - 14 teams

Least spent - $2

Most spent - $61

1K - 19 teams

6K's - 2 teams

Least spent - $1

Most spent - $21

1D - 25 teams

5D's - 9 teams

Least spent - $1

Most spent - $26

FYI on overall team makeups

1QB (.3%), 2QB (29.4%), 3QB (65.8%), 4QB (4.5%), 5QB (.3%), 6QB (.1%)

3RB (.1%), 4RB (5.6%), 5RB (33.7%), 6RB (44.9%), 7RB (13.7%), 8RB (2.3%), 9RB (.1%)

3WR (.1%), 4WR (.6%), 5WR (13.8%), 6WR (38.6%), 7WR (33.2%), 8WR (11.3%), 9WR (2.4%), 10WR (.4%)

1TE (1.7%), 2TE (63.8%), 3TE (33.5%), 4TE (1.4%)

1K (1.9%), 2K (66.0%), 3K (28.3%), 4K (3.9%), 5K (.1%), 6K (.2%)

1D (2.5%), 2D (67.7%), 3D (26.4%), 4D (2.9%), 5D (.9%)
I've been happy each week (so far) to see that I made the cut with my normal (?) team (3-6-6-3-2-2). Then you go ahead and post these strange teams that are still alive.Thank you Debbie Downer.

 
I think what I need is a four-hour case of food poisoning for Kurt Warner. The last power rankings I saw had me at #7, but the only one of the top 44 teams without Warner on the roster. One good tank is all I need to really put me in position for this thing.

 
Here's all the players I have who have advanced at a lower rate than the overall contest rate (7.91%):

P. Manning (5.74%)

SJax (4.23%)

Curry (4.73%)

Randel El (6.30%)

Hardy (6.93%)

Utecht (6.95%)

Minnesota (6.72%)

Now would be a good time to start producing.

 
Fantasystar had a final prediction of 164.5 after last night's game. If I stay up to watch the end of Sunday/Monday games from here out, I'll keep the site updated.

 
FYI, with this week's stats and next week's cut, the cut would be about 168-169. FS had it at 169, while the actual entries had it just above 168. These next 2 cuts will be pretty substantial.

 
Live ownership percentages92.1 Steve Slaton81.9 Kurt Warner65.5 Ricky Williams60.1 Dustin Keller57.3 Ray Rice54.8 Brandon Marshall36.6 Jerricho Cotcheryi have all of these except for slaton and rice
I HAVE ALL OF THESE!! Trying to decide if that's good or bad.But I also have Steve Smith, Winslow, Brees, FWP, Barber, TJones.
 
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Live ownership percentages

92.1 Steve Slaton

81.9 Kurt Warner

65.5 Ricky Williams

60.1 Dustin Keller

57.3 Ray Rice

54.8 Brandon Marshall

36.6 Jerricho Cotchery

i have all of these except for slaton and rice
I HAVE ALL OF THESE!! Trying to decide if that's good or bad.But I also have Steve Smith, Winslow, Brees, FWP, Barber, TJones.
I'd say good for making it to the final 250 -- if any of Slaton, etc. have big weeks, you'll be swept along with the tide. Similarly, if none or few of Slaton, etc. have big weeks, then the overall cut line will be lower.I'd say having Slaton, etc. is bad for weeks 14, 15 and 16 - in general - because you want your team to hit consecutive high-water marks that are not reached by any other teams. But with Steve Smith, Winslow, etc. it looks like you're in good shape either way.

I've got all of the above (Slaton, Warner, R. Williams, Rice and Marshall) except for Keller and Cotchery. But I've also got Cutler, Delhomme, MJD, Chris Johnson, D. Williams, L. Washington, Steve Smith, Holmes, K. Walter, Porter, Reg. Williams, Shockey, and Utecht.

In one sense, every team has a unique group of players, and there are no duplicate teams, so every team that makes it to the final 250 will have a chance.

OTOH, some players are going to have huge performances in weeks 14, 15 and 16. Whether they are the expected players (Brees, Cutler, Tomlinson, Portis, Steve Smith, Witten, etc.) or "undervalued" players (probably some combination), remains to be seen. If all the expected players have weak performances in weeks 14, 15 and 16, but Delhomme, DeAngelo Williams and Leon Washington have huge weeks, then I'm in great shape from a uniqueness standpoint -- but the odds are not in my favor.

In past years, only 4-5 players have been the crucial difference makers in the final weeks. You have almost no chance to be in the top-25 if you don't have every one of the major difference makers. The final ranking of the top-25 has then depended on the other players on each team.

 
Using the 3-6-7-2-2-2 logic as it seems to be working the best, here would be the most common team:

QB - Warner, Cutler, Brees - $42

RB - Slaton, Ricky, Rice, TJ, CJ3, MB3 - $88

WR - Brandon, CJ2, Walter, DeSean, Cotchery, Smitty, Breaston - $105

TE - Keller, Fasano - $5

K - Prater, Hanson - $2

D - Bills, Saints - $5

Total - $247 (pretty darn close, huh?)

So, how many of these guys are on your roster? 11 of them are on mine. I'd bet that at least 8 of these guys are on about 95% of the teams.

 
Live ownership percentages

92.1 Steve Slaton

81.9 Kurt Warner

65.5 Ricky Williams

60.1 Dustin Keller

57.3 Ray Rice

54.8 Brandon Marshall

36.6 Jerricho Cotchery

i have all of these except for slaton and rice
I might not be unique, but I'm still alive.
I count four of us that have responded now with all these players. Our un-uniqueness is going to kill us during the 50% cuts. Even if our players do well, we are screwed because the cut will be high.We each have to hope that these players underperform and our other players fire it up. The two biggest differences makers are Slaton and Warner. We need them to have an off day and our other players pick up the slack.

For me, my most unique players are Delhomme, Schaub and Selvin Young. I expect Schaub to be out for the year. I need Delhomme to outproduce Warner and Young to get back on the field. I doubt I go much further.

 
Using the 3-6-7-2-2-2 logic as it seems to be working the best, here would be the most common team:QB - Warner, Cutler, Brees - $42RB - Slaton, Ricky, Rice, TJ, CJ3, MB3 - $88WR - Brandon, CJ2, Walter, DeSean, Cotchery, Smitty, Breaston - $105TE - Keller, Fasano - $5K - Prater, Hanson - $2D - Bills, Saints - $5Total - $247 (pretty darn close, huh?)So, how many of these guys are on your roster? 11 of them are on mine. I'd bet that at least 8 of these guys are on about 95% of the teams.
I've got 16 of these players.
 
Using the 3-6-7-2-2-2 logic as it seems to be working the best, here would be the most common team:

QB - Warner, Cutler, Brees - $42

RB - Slaton, Ricky, Rice, TJ, CJ3, MB3 - $88

WR - Brandon, CJ2, Walter, DeSean, Cotchery, Smitty, Breaston - $105

TE - Keller, Fasano - $5

K - Prater, Hanson - $2

D - Bills, Saints - $5

Total - $247 (pretty darn close, huh?)

So, how many of these guys are on your roster? 11 of them are on mine. I'd bet that at least 8 of these guys are on about 95% of the teams.
I have these 11.That is my entire RB corps. I'm most unique at WR, K & D. C'mon Fitz, Washington, Rackers, Kasay, Phins, Jags & Seahawks!!!!

 
Using the 3-6-7-2-2-2 logic as it seems to be working the best, here would be the most common team:QB - Warner, Cutler, Brees - $42RB - Slaton, Ricky, Rice, TJ, CJ3, MB3 - $88WR - Brandon, CJ2, Walter, DeSean, Cotchery, Smitty, Breaston - $105TE - Keller, Fasano - $5K - Prater, Hanson - $2D - Bills, Saints - $5Total - $247 (pretty darn close, huh?)So, how many of these guys are on your roster? 11 of them are on mine. I'd bet that at least 8 of these guys are on about 95% of the teams.
i have 14 of those players. the only players i have left not listed are mcnabb, lynch, portis, rhodes, holmes, henderson, panthers d, and miami d.
 
Using the 3-6-7-2-2-2 logic as it seems to be working the best, here would be the most common team:

QB - Warner, Cutler, Brees - $42

RB - Slaton, Ricky, Rice, TJ, CJ3, MB3 - $88

WR - Brandon, CJ2, Walter, DeSean, Cotchery, Smitty, Breaston - $105

TE - Keller, Fasano - $5

K - Prater, Hanson - $2

D - Bills, Saints - $5

Total - $247 (pretty darn close, huh?)

So, how many of these guys are on your roster? 11 of them are on mine. I'd bet that at least 8 of these guys are on about 95% of the teams.
i have 14 of those players. the only players i have left not listed are mcnabb, lynch, portis, rhodes, holmes, henderson, panthers d, and miami d.
Wow I have 13 of those players. Substitute Roddy White for Breaston and you have my entire WR corp listed
 

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