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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Just for grins, I decided to go back to the week 2 power ratings.

There's a clear correlation between week 2 power rating and success, but given the number of just-plain-bad teams around at the beginning of the contest, I'm really not sure if this table demonstrates that the power rating method is good, bad, or indifferent. It's better than throwing darts is about the only thing we can say for sure.

Anyway, here it is. #live means the number of teams from that group (of 500) that are still alive as of now. AEW is the average elimination week for the eliminated teams in that group.

Code:
Teams	 #live   AEW---------------------------	1 --   500   94	7.3  501 --  1000   81	7.0 1001 --  1500   54	6.9 1501 --  2000   45	7.1 2001 --  2500   41	6.7 2501 --  3000   26	6.7 3001 --  3500   32	6.5 3501 --  4000   21	6.4 4001 --  4500   21	6.2 4501 --  5000   20	6.0 5001 --  5500	7	6.0 5501 --  6000	7	6.0 6001 --  6500	9	5.5 6501 --  7000	7	5.6 7001 --  7500	9	5.3 7501 --  8000	9	5.0 8001 --  8500	4	4.9 8501 --  9000	3	4.8 9001 --  9500	2	4.5 9501 -- 10000	3	4.210001 -- 10500	4	4.210501 -- 11000	1	4.111001 -- 11500	1	3.711501 -- 12000	0	3.312001 -- 12500	0	2.2
 
Here's the final 500 with the last 2 weeks added together and sorted:


Code:
1	108337	245.05	175.55		420.60
2	102513	214.15	201.75		415.90
3	100673	232.50	179.95		412.45
4	100874	231.35	180.25		411.60
5	109045	205.85	205.55		411.40
6	108280	209.45	200.85		410.30
7	100046	211.75	198.25		410.00
8	105022	231.75	177.55		409.30
9	106528	196.85	211.95		408.80
10	103737	212.85	193.55		406.40
11	108053	197.55	208.75		406.30
12	107313	212.35	193.75		406.10
13	104006	207.55	198.10		405.65
14	105243	204.75	200.90		405.65
15	102629	214.15	191.25		405.40
16	108402	222.55	182.35		404.90
17	100518	205.45	199.25		404.70
18	100556	217.35	187.30		404.65
19	102729	215.45	189.05		404.50
20	104937	189.95	214.55		404.50
21	105453	195.65	208.35		404.00
22	100848	221.75	181.15		402.90
23	105352	202.65	198.25		400.90
24	104871	201.15	198.75		399.90
25	100645	204.65	195.15		399.80
26	102061	204.55	195.25		399.80
27	101015	227.25	171.70		398.95
28	106286	215.15	183.75		398.90
29	108973	222.65	176.15		398.80
30	108125	209.75	189.00		398.75
31	108875	208.30	189.35		397.65
32	101955	212.05	185.15		397.20
33	101455	200.35	196.85		397.20
34	102233	198.20	198.75		396.95
35	102525	211.45	185.15		396.60
36	103782	202.35	193.95		396.30
37	110132	205.95	190.25		396.20
38	102361	200.05	195.95		396.00
39	107930	206.15	188.95		395.10
40	106722	216.65	177.65		394.30
41	109850	198.25	195.85		394.10
42	102227	206.55	186.95		393.50
43	101071	196.15	197.35		393.50
44	102754	188.35	205.00		393.35
45	106058	197.05	196.00		393.05
46	105601	197.85	195.00		392.85
47	100327	195.65	196.95		392.60
48	100519	215.65	176.15		391.80
49	105156	203.65	187.95		391.60
50	101142	224.35	167.15		391.50
51	101134	203.55	187.85		391.40
52	105970	181.25	210.15		391.40
53	108977	203.45	187.65		391.10
54	101679	207.25	183.65		390.90
55	108389	194.25	196.45		390.70
56	105271	186.75	203.95		390.70
57	100730	218.95	171.55		390.50
58	107846	196.10	194.25		390.35
59	105434	215.95	174.30		390.25
60	106532	187.15	202.95		390.10
61	102138	191.75	198.25		390.00
62	108005	210.05	179.75		389.80
63	105542	181.15	208.30		389.45
64	100045	181.25	208.05		389.30
65	107156	211.25	177.85		389.10
66	101938	186.85	202.25		389.10
67	106390	206.05	182.85		388.90
68	104721	200.05	188.85		388.90
69	105690	201.05	187.65		388.70
70	107390	216.35	171.70		388.05
71	109915	215.35	172.40		387.75
72	102023	198.80	188.95		387.75
73	101791	187.15	200.45		387.60
74	105948	210.05	177.45		387.50
75	106361	205.45	181.85		387.30
76	104634	189.75	197.35		387.10
77	106520	203.25	183.75		387.00
78	104430	192.05	194.75		386.80
79	106642	201.95	184.65		386.60
80	104202	198.85	187.75		386.60
81	100243	200.05	186.35		386.40
82	100481	196.65	188.95		385.60
83	109003	203.75	181.65		385.40
84	103472	193.65	191.75		385.40
85	105516	183.75	201.35		385.10
86	100449	189.95	195.05		385.00
87	108183	183.85	201.05		384.90
88	104618	194.95	189.85		384.80
89	103498	202.05	182.70		384.75
90	104274	205.85	178.85		384.70
91	102757	194.95	189.75		384.70
92	104687	215.05	169.55		384.60
93	100130	210.55	173.95		384.50
94	107569	207.25	177.15		384.40
95	100562	180.05	204.15		384.20
96	100474	199.65	184.45		384.10
97	102726	210.15	173.85		384.00
98	107117	193.45	190.45		383.90
99	105047	188.35	195.35		383.70
100	107565	185.45	197.75		383.20
101	101851	194.45	188.65		383.10
102	100890	196.15	186.45		382.60
103	101293	199.35	183.05		382.40
104	105866	180.35	201.90		382.25
105	104868	208.85	173.35		382.20
106	102237	206.05	175.95		382.00
107	103020	208.65	173.25		381.90
108	104910	183.05	198.85		381.90
109	102243	190.25	191.60		381.85
110	102699	203.45	178.35		381.80
111	102963	188.35	193.35		381.70
112	105268	204.35	176.75		381.10
113	110008	194.65	186.40		381.05
114	103072	196.85	183.95		380.80
115	104193	188.15	192.65		380.80
116	102632	200.85	179.85		380.70
117	108413	200.75	179.85		380.60
118	107520	201.05	179.45		380.50
119	100256	203.85	176.55		380.40
120	101436	186.15	194.25		380.40
121	103875	199.05	181.25		380.30
122	104536	204.55	175.65		380.20
123	102775	200.55	179.65		380.20
124	101075	203.15	176.90		380.05
125	104793	181.05	198.95		380.00
126	106732	197.75	182.20		379.95
127	110226	210.85	169.05		379.90
128	104839	188.05	191.85		379.90
129	105508	190.35	189.25		379.60
130	107434	216.35	163.15		379.50
131	106882	214.95	164.25		379.20
132	108040	208.35	170.55		378.90
133	107065	200.45	178.35		378.80
134	108405	182.55	196.05		378.60
135	103830	214.45	163.95		378.40
136	103554	194.65	183.75		378.40
137	104338	176.65	201.65		378.30
138	109279	207.15	171.05		378.20
139	101714	183.15	195.05		378.20
140	102982	179.35	198.65		378.00
141	108484	190.85	187.05		377.90
142	105164	175.45	202.25		377.70
143	109548	199.65	177.95		377.60
144	102799	205.75	171.75		377.50
145	103665	209.15	168.30		377.45
146	101078	194.55	182.90		377.45
147	101448	196.05	181.20		377.25
148	100055	192.95	184.25		377.20
149	108730	184.25	192.90		377.15
150	100707	199.15	177.55		376.70
151	101229	185.05	191.55		376.60
152	108151	202.05	174.45		376.50
153	105323	202.25	174.00		376.25
154	106802	190.15	186.05		376.20
155	105090	189.75	186.25		376.00
156	107813	186.65	189.35		376.00
157	102600	200.35	175.55		375.90
158	102900	175.90	200.00		375.90
159	103745	202.35	173.50		375.85
160	103842	208.45	166.65		375.10
161	100019	191.25	183.75		375.00
162	101613	208.95	165.95		374.90
163	100478	191.25	183.55		374.80
164	102815	207.80	166.80		374.60
165	104562	188.45	186.15		374.60
166	107014	180.95	193.55		374.50
167	100753	210.45	163.95		374.40
168	107219	197.55	176.75		374.30
169	102257	190.65	183.65		374.30
170	101832	196.35	177.85		374.20
171	100021	183.35	190.85		374.20
172	103029	204.85	169.30		374.15
173	105573	184.65	189.05		373.70
174	101995	187.25	186.35		373.60
175	111503	191.45	182.10		373.55
176	103081	193.55	179.95		373.50
177	103708	192.15	181.35		373.50
178	103388	182.25	191.25		373.50
179	104481	176.25	197.25		373.50
180	104114	199.85	173.45		373.30
181	104209	183.45	189.85		373.30
182	111402	187.55	185.65		373.20
183	109732	200.95	172.05		373.00
184	105859	202.40	170.55		372.95
185	108286	190.65	182.25		372.90
186	103582	178.95	193.95		372.90
187	108155	197.50	175.30		372.80
188	101396	192.45	180.05		372.50
189	102193	195.45	176.95		372.40
190	100841	208.95	163.00		371.95
191	105462	181.15	190.80		371.95
192	108646	188.00	183.65		371.65
193	106718	181.25	190.25		371.50
194	109394	200.15	171.25		371.40
195	100646	184.55	186.80		371.35
196	105918	196.45	174.85		371.30
197	103466	176.85	194.45		371.30
198	101114	195.35	175.85		371.20
199	101058	205.05	166.05		371.10
200	100682	187.75	183.20		370.95
201	100345	187.35	183.55		370.90
202	105634	203.55	167.15		370.70
203	105748	180.65	190.05		370.70
204	108673	203.85	166.65		370.50
205	106939	184.15	186.25		370.40
206	102848	185.85	184.45		370.30
207	108297	199.65	170.55		370.20
208	109910	181.35	188.75		370.10
209	108022	206.05	163.90		369.95
210	104733	198.75	171.15		369.90
211	105010	196.35	173.45		369.80
212	108077	206.65	163.00		369.65
213	104160	201.35	168.00		369.35
214	104807	183.85	185.45		369.30
215	102417	176.60	192.65		369.25
216	108453	198.95	170.20		369.15
217	104492	177.15	191.95		369.10
218	111650	194.85	174.20		369.05
219	100166	181.55	187.40		368.95
220	104860	176.15	192.65		368.80
221	100378	195.65	173.05		368.70
222	101882	199.95	168.65		368.60
223	105455	183.85	184.75		368.60
224	104780	199.75	168.75		368.50
225	100265	189.65	178.85		368.50
226	103700	179.25	189.25		368.50
227	110762	180.05	188.30		368.35
228	101943	189.55	178.75		368.30
229	102803	184.85	183.25		368.10
230	108940	193.10	174.90		368.00
231	105193	189.35	178.65		368.00
232	100292	174.85	193.15		368.00
233	103192	180.35	187.45		367.80
234	108987	192.55	175.20		367.75
235	104524	181.65	186.05		367.70
236	105586	178.45	189.20		367.65
237	108082	195.55	172.05		367.60
238	100546	177.35	190.05		367.40
239	100062	176.25	190.65		366.90
240	106125	176.75	189.85		366.60
241	103524	174.75	191.75		366.50
242	109459	194.15	172.30		366.45
243	107124	191.25	175.15		366.40
244	102323	194.15	171.95		366.10
245	110520	199.35	166.70		366.05
246	103059	181.25	184.75		366.00
247	105627	188.35	177.55		365.90
248	104786	188.15	177.70		365.85
249	102663	181.05	184.60		365.65
250	108326	186.95	178.65		365.60
251	102667	191.45	174.05		365.50
252	102071	179.75	185.75		365.50
253	101186	179.55	185.95		365.50
254	101057	196.55	168.75		365.30
255	103043	187.25	178.05		365.30
256	107479	175.15	190.15		365.30
257	105083	175.85	189.35		365.20
258	100380	185.25	179.85		365.10
259	104234	188.65	176.35		365.00
260	102709	187.05	177.95		365.00
261	106588	194.30	170.65		364.95
262	103599	186.55	178.35		364.90
263	101061	193.15	171.65		364.80
264	105906	186.95	177.65		364.60
265	104516	182.85	181.75		364.60
266	102522	186.85	177.55		364.40
267	101848	181.85	182.55		364.40
268	110417	193.40	170.95		364.35
269	105345	181.25	183.05		364.30
270	104129	177.35	186.95		364.30
271	104390	183.75	180.50		364.25
272	108703	176.05	188.05		364.10
273	100314	183.95	180.05		364.00
274	108231	180.25	183.75		364.00
275	102050	193.15	170.75		363.90
276	107033	190.35	173.55		363.90
277	100829	180.95	182.95		363.90
278	110828	188.55	175.25		363.80
279	105183	188.35	175.45		363.80
280	111052	186.65	176.90		363.55
281	103127	195.80	167.65		363.45
282	103076	185.05	178.35		363.40
283	106192	182.85	180.45		363.30
284	102892	181.45	181.85		363.30
285	106117	181.55	181.65		363.20
286	107339	188.55	174.60		363.15
287	104888	183.30	179.85		363.15
288	109167	197.25	165.85		363.10
289	100923	186.75	176.35		363.10
290	105942	191.65	171.40		363.05
291	104275	186.70	176.35		363.05
292	109734	198.25	164.40		362.65
293	101518	182.45	180.05		362.50
294	103079	178.35	184.15		362.50
295	105798	195.15	167.30		362.45
296	106113	194.35	168.05		362.40
297	107410	190.45	171.85		362.30
298	109189	189.05	173.25		362.30
299	100072	182.25	179.95		362.20
300	103269	196.35	165.55		361.90
301	101370	187.95	173.95		361.90
302	106478	177.15	184.75		361.90
303	107347	187.20	174.60		361.80
304	105365	177.35	184.45		361.80
305	110950	188.35	173.40		361.75
306	100414	186.95	174.75		361.70
307	111345	198.45	163.20		361.65
308	109106	174.65	186.90		361.55
309	107246	193.25	168.25		361.50
310	100069	191.25	170.25		361.50
311	102220	189.85	171.55		361.40
312	101669	185.65	175.70		361.35
313	108617	181.55	179.75		361.30
314	104785	188.55	172.45		361.00
315	105639	183.55	177.45		361.00
316	107413	179.95	181.05		361.00
317	102393	197.10	163.75		360.85
318	109495	191.15	169.55		360.70
319	100850	188.25	172.35		360.60
320	100907	186.75	173.85		360.60
321	106030	176.25	184.35		360.60
322	106542	182.30	178.25		360.55
323	108752	192.25	168.25		360.50
324	107203	188.05	172.45		360.50
325	106448	189.45	170.95		360.40
326	105084	182.65	177.60		360.25
327	101546	191.25	168.95		360.20
328	101294	181.95	178.25		360.20
329	105086	186.40	173.65		360.05
330	100576	177.65	182.15		359.80
331	101199	186.65	173.05		359.70
332	100778	174.65	184.85		359.50
333	107683	184.75	174.65		359.40
334	106397	176.95	182.45		359.40
335	108113	175.15	184.25		359.40
336	100360	183.35	175.95		359.30
337	103934	195.15	164.05		359.20
338	110463	177.00	182.15		359.15
339	108045	192.75	166.15		358.90
340	107554	182.35	176.50		358.85
341	101513	194.45	164.25		358.70
342	105385	188.45	170.25		358.70
343	101182	192.10	166.55		358.65
344	105959	177.00	181.65		358.65
345	100684	192.15	166.45		358.60
346	103461	191.15	167.45		358.60
347	106728	181.05	177.35		358.40
348	105232	186.55	171.75		358.30
349	101089	183.05	175.25		358.30
350	100138	195.25	162.95		358.20
351	103826	184.25	173.95		358.20
352	101090	175.35	182.85		358.20
353	105964	174.45	183.70		358.15
354	106154	186.45	171.65		358.10
355	109302	187.95	170.05		358.00
356	104737	187.35	170.60		357.95
357	105144	187.55	170.20		357.75
358	106158	177.65	180.05		357.70
359	100135	180.15	177.25		357.40
360	105576	188.25	169.05		357.30
361	100011	190.65	166.55		357.20
362	104085	178.05	179.15		357.20
363	109062	188.45	168.70		357.15
364	101320	184.45	172.55		357.00
365	104482	180.15	176.85		357.00
366	102250	178.95	178.05		357.00
367	100716	192.05	164.85		356.90
368	102578	187.65	169.20		356.85
369	109527	191.65	165.15		356.80
370	103637	183.85	172.95		356.80
371	101275	181.45	175.25		356.70
372	101456	183.85	172.75		356.60
373	100142	189.85	166.65		356.50
374	100908	178.25	178.05		356.30
375	102241	180.75	175.25		356.00
376	102889	183.65	172.25		355.90
377	104224	182.85	172.95		355.80
378	102107	185.55	170.15		355.70
379	102049	183.75	171.95		355.70
380	101526	179.25	176.45		355.70
381	100724	175.45	180.25		355.70
382	105353	187.15	168.45		355.60
383	107625	176.15	179.45		355.60
384	104283	180.15	175.35		355.50
385	100884	179.45	176.00		355.45
386	108033	176.95	178.35		355.30
387	108983	181.45	173.55		355.00
388	104187	175.15	179.75		354.90
389	104039	183.05	171.75		354.80
390	109006	179.35	175.05		354.40
391	105985	177.85	176.50		354.35
392	100708	184.45	169.75		354.20
393	100650	178.55	175.60		354.15
394	111190	185.65	168.35		354.00
395	106736	185.35	168.40		353.75
396	107759	178.90	174.75		353.65
397	100958	181.65	171.85		353.50
398	102240	180.85	172.65		353.50
399	101192	186.75	166.60		353.35
400	103053	186.95	166.10		353.05
401	105020	176.85	176.15		353.00
402	103224	181.65	171.25		352.90
403	102501	186.65	166.15		352.80
404	101445	186.45	166.35		352.80
405	104581	180.55	172.25		352.80
406	102405	177.05	175.75		352.80
407	105073	182.55	170.05		352.60
408	100858	179.45	172.95		352.40
409	100176	181.95	170.40		352.35
410	106747	179.45	172.75		352.20
411	106617	181.85	170.25		352.10
412	102151	177.05	174.95		352.00
413	102876	188.95	162.95		351.90
414	108377	185.35	166.45		351.80
415	108743	178.35	173.45		351.80
416	100944	185.15	166.55		351.70
417	105719	184.65	167.05		351.70
418	107809	178.85	172.85		351.70
419	109017	186.45	165.20		351.65
420	102498	181.45	170.15		351.60
421	108392	186.75	164.55		351.30
422	103608	179.95	171.05		351.00
423	101519	187.35	163.45		350.80
424	102878	184.90	165.80		350.70
425	110531	178.15	172.55		350.70
426	103451	184.95	165.45		350.40
427	100654	183.55	166.55		350.10
428	105797	177.95	172.10		350.05
429	107790	177.15	172.85		350.00
430	101991	175.35	174.65		350.00
431	107942	182.65	167.30		349.95
432	104538	184.45	165.45		349.90
433	102034	180.25	169.45		349.70
434	101641	178.55	171.15		349.70
435	105435	180.15	169.30		349.45
436	107148	180.75	168.65		349.40
437	104544	179.35	170.05		349.40
438	104231	186.15	163.05		349.20
439	109029	181.05	168.05		349.10
440	104635	185.70	163.35		349.05
441	100150	183.75	165.25		349.00
442	108720	178.75	170.25		349.00
443	106961	176.25	172.75		349.00
444	100572	175.95	173.05		349.00
445	100643	175.95	173.05		349.00
446	103635	175.15	173.85		349.00
447	111436	178.25	170.65		348.90
448	104421	178.25	170.55		348.80
449	104629	180.65	167.85		348.50
450	105787	177.25	171.15		348.40
451	101135	176.75	171.65		348.40
452	107022	184.05	164.25		348.30
453	104212	182.35	165.95		348.30
454	100881	181.75	166.55		348.30
455	100081	183.15	164.95		348.10
456	106702	176.45	171.55		348.00
457	106657	183.95	163.85		347.80
458	108838	182.15	165.35		347.50
459	101636	178.95	168.55		347.50
460	102708	176.45	171.05		347.50
461	108551	184.15	163.15		347.30
462	111129	178.10	169.20		347.30
463	100415	181.45	165.80		347.25
464	102073	181.35	165.85		347.20
465	110192	183.35	163.75		347.10
466	102209	179.85	167.15		347.00
467	107357	179.45	167.55		347.00
468	111207	179.85	167.10		346.95
469	104885	177.65	168.85		346.50
470	102374	175.15	170.75		345.90
471	104078	182.35	163.50		345.85
472	101005	182.85	162.95		345.80
473	102098	181.75	164.05		345.80
474	105415	176.45	168.95		345.40
475	103071	177.75	167.30		345.05
476	107019	177.25	167.75		345.00
477	101333	174.75	170.20		344.95
478	101439	178.35	166.55		344.90
479	109383	181.25	163.55		344.80
480	108067	175.00	169.75		344.75
481	105378	176.60	167.65		344.25
482	108770	178.65	165.55		344.20
483	100250	178.55	165.65		344.20
484	104613	179.35	164.65		344.00
485	104903	179.05	164.70		343.75
486	109551	177.55	166.00		343.55
487	106133	174.85	168.65		343.50
488	105531	176.75	166.45		343.20
489	105325	178.85	164.25		343.10
490	109431	177.15	165.65		342.80
491	102357	175.85	166.95		342.80
492	101723	178.25	163.75		342.00
493	104861	177.45	164.55		342.00
494	110291	178.65	163.15		341.80
495	105051	178.45	163.10		341.55
496	106060	174.85	166.45		341.30
497	102372	176.85	164.15		341.00
498	107385	177.45	163.45		340.90
499	105713	175.75	164.05		339.80
500	110866	176.05	163.30		339.35
 
BuckeyeArt said:
Here's the final 500 with the last 2 weeks added together and sorted:

Code:
1	108337	245.05	175.55		420.602	102513	214.15	201.75		415.903	100673	232.50	179.95		412.454	100874	231.35	180.25		411.605	109045	205.85	205.55		411.406	108280	209.45	200.85		410.307	100046	211.75	198.25		410.008	105022	231.75	177.55		409.309	106528	196.85	211.95		408.8010	103737	212.85	193.55		406.4011	108053	197.55	208.75		406.3012	107313	212.35	193.75		406.1013	104006	207.55	198.10		405.6514	105243	204.75	200.90		405.6515	102629	214.15	191.25		405.4016	108402	222.55	182.35		404.9017	100518	205.45	199.25		404.7018	100556	217.35	187.30		404.6519	102729	215.45	189.05		404.5020	104937	189.95	214.55		404.5021	105453	195.65	208.35		404.0022	100848	221.75	181.15		402.9023	105352	202.65	198.25		400.9024	104871	201.15	198.75		399.9025	100645	204.65	195.15		399.8026	102061	204.55	195.25		399.8027	101015	227.25	171.70		398.9528	106286	215.15	183.75		398.9029	108973	222.65	176.15		398.8030	108125	209.75	189.00		398.7531	108875	208.30	189.35		397.6532	101955	212.05	185.15		397.2033	101455	200.35	196.85		397.2034	102233	198.20	198.75		396.9535	102525	211.45	185.15		396.6036	103782	202.35	193.95		396.3037	110132	205.95	190.25		396.2038	102361	200.05	195.95		396.0039	107930	206.15	188.95		395.1040	106722	216.65	177.65		394.3041	109850	198.25	195.85		394.1042	102227	206.55	186.95		393.5043	101071	196.15	197.35		393.5044	102754	188.35	205.00		393.3545	106058	197.05	196.00		393.0546	105601	197.85	195.00		392.8547	100327	195.65	196.95		392.6048	100519	215.65	176.15		391.8049	105156	203.65	187.95		391.6050	101142	224.35	167.15		391.5051	101134	203.55	187.85		391.4052	105970	181.25	210.15		391.4053	108977	203.45	187.65		391.1054	101679	207.25	183.65		390.9055	108389	194.25	196.45		390.7056	105271	186.75	203.95		390.7057	100730	218.95	171.55		390.5058	107846	196.10	194.25		390.3559	105434	215.95	174.30		390.2560	106532	187.15	202.95		390.1061	102138	191.75	198.25		390.0062	108005	210.05	179.75		389.8063	105542	181.15	208.30		389.4564	100045	181.25	208.05		389.3065	107156	211.25	177.85		389.1066	101938	186.85	202.25		389.1067	106390	206.05	182.85		388.9068	104721	200.05	188.85		388.9069	105690	201.05	187.65		388.7070	107390	216.35	171.70		388.0571	109915	215.35	172.40		387.7572	102023	198.80	188.95		387.7573	101791	187.15	200.45		387.6074	105948	210.05	177.45		387.5075	106361	205.45	181.85		387.3076	104634	189.75	197.35		387.1077	106520	203.25	183.75		387.0078	104430	192.05	194.75		386.8079	106642	201.95	184.65		386.6080	104202	198.85	187.75		386.6081	100243	200.05	186.35		386.4082	100481	196.65	188.95		385.6083	109003	203.75	181.65		385.4084	103472	193.65	191.75		385.4085	105516	183.75	201.35		385.1086	100449	189.95	195.05		385.0087	108183	183.85	201.05		384.9088	104618	194.95	189.85		384.8089	103498	202.05	182.70		384.7590	104274	205.85	178.85		384.7091	102757	194.95	189.75		384.7092	104687	215.05	169.55		384.6093	100130	210.55	173.95		384.5094	107569	207.25	177.15		384.4095	100562	180.05	204.15		384.2096	100474	199.65	184.45		384.1097	102726	210.15	173.85		384.0098	107117	193.45	190.45		383.9099	105047	188.35	195.35		383.70100	107565	185.45	197.75		383.20101	101851	194.45	188.65		383.10102	100890	196.15	186.45		382.60103	101293	199.35	183.05		382.40104	105866	180.35	201.90		382.25105	104868	208.85	173.35		382.20106	102237	206.05	175.95		382.00107	103020	208.65	173.25		381.90108	104910	183.05	198.85		381.90109	102243	190.25	191.60		381.85110	102699	203.45	178.35		381.80111	102963	188.35	193.35		381.70112	105268	204.35	176.75		381.10113	110008	194.65	186.40		381.05114	103072	196.85	183.95		380.80115	104193	188.15	192.65		380.80116	102632	200.85	179.85		380.70117	108413	200.75	179.85		380.60118	107520	201.05	179.45		380.50119	100256	203.85	176.55		380.40120	101436	186.15	194.25		380.40121	103875	199.05	181.25		380.30122	104536	204.55	175.65		380.20123	102775	200.55	179.65		380.20124	101075	203.15	176.90		380.05125	104793	181.05	198.95		380.00126	106732	197.75	182.20		379.95127	110226	210.85	169.05		379.90128	104839	188.05	191.85		379.90129	105508	190.35	189.25		379.60130	107434	216.35	163.15		379.50131	106882	214.95	164.25		379.20132	108040	208.35	170.55		378.90133	107065	200.45	178.35		378.80134	108405	182.55	196.05		378.60135	103830	214.45	163.95		378.40136	103554	194.65	183.75		378.40137	104338	176.65	201.65		378.30138	109279	207.15	171.05		378.20139	101714	183.15	195.05		378.20140	102982	179.35	198.65		378.00141	108484	190.85	187.05		377.90142	105164	175.45	202.25		377.70143	109548	199.65	177.95		377.60144	102799	205.75	171.75		377.50145	103665	209.15	168.30		377.45146	101078	194.55	182.90		377.45147	101448	196.05	181.20		377.25148	100055	192.95	184.25		377.20149	108730	184.25	192.90		377.15150	100707	199.15	177.55		376.70151	101229	185.05	191.55		376.60152	108151	202.05	174.45		376.50153	105323	202.25	174.00		376.25154	106802	190.15	186.05		376.20155	105090	189.75	186.25		376.00156	107813	186.65	189.35		376.00157	102600	200.35	175.55		375.90158	102900	175.90	200.00		375.90159	103745	202.35	173.50		375.85160	103842	208.45	166.65		375.10161	100019	191.25	183.75		375.00162	101613	208.95	165.95		374.90163	100478	191.25	183.55		374.80164	102815	207.80	166.80		374.60165	104562	188.45	186.15		374.60166	107014	180.95	193.55		374.50167	100753	210.45	163.95		374.40168	107219	197.55	176.75		374.30169	102257	190.65	183.65		374.30170	101832	196.35	177.85		374.20171	100021	183.35	190.85		374.20172	103029	204.85	169.30		374.15173	105573	184.65	189.05		373.70174	101995	187.25	186.35		373.60175	111503	191.45	182.10		373.55176	103081	193.55	179.95		373.50177	103708	192.15	181.35		373.50178	103388	182.25	191.25		373.50179	104481	176.25	197.25		373.50180	104114	199.85	173.45		373.30181	104209	183.45	189.85		373.30182	111402	187.55	185.65		373.20183	109732	200.95	172.05		373.00184	105859	202.40	170.55		372.95185	108286	190.65	182.25		372.90186	103582	178.95	193.95		372.90187	108155	197.50	175.30		372.80188	101396	192.45	180.05		372.50189	102193	195.45	176.95		372.40190	100841	208.95	163.00		371.95191	105462	181.15	190.80		371.95192	108646	188.00	183.65		371.65193	106718	181.25	190.25		371.50194	109394	200.15	171.25		371.40195	100646	184.55	186.80		371.35196	105918	196.45	174.85		371.30197	103466	176.85	194.45		371.30198	101114	195.35	175.85		371.20199	101058	205.05	166.05		371.10200	100682	187.75	183.20		370.95201	100345	187.35	183.55		370.90202	105634	203.55	167.15		370.70203	105748	180.65	190.05		370.70204	108673	203.85	166.65		370.50205	106939	184.15	186.25		370.40206	102848	185.85	184.45		370.30207	108297	199.65	170.55		370.20208	109910	181.35	188.75		370.10209	108022	206.05	163.90		369.95210	104733	198.75	171.15		369.90211	105010	196.35	173.45		369.80212	108077	206.65	163.00		369.65213	104160	201.35	168.00		369.35214	104807	183.85	185.45		369.30215	102417	176.60	192.65		369.25216	108453	198.95	170.20		369.15217	104492	177.15	191.95		369.10218	111650	194.85	174.20		369.05219	100166	181.55	187.40		368.95220	104860	176.15	192.65		368.80221	100378	195.65	173.05		368.70222	101882	199.95	168.65		368.60223	105455	183.85	184.75		368.60224	104780	199.75	168.75		368.50225	100265	189.65	178.85		368.50226	103700	179.25	189.25		368.50227	110762	180.05	188.30		368.35228	101943	189.55	178.75		368.30229	102803	184.85	183.25		368.10230	108940	193.10	174.90		368.00231	105193	189.35	178.65		368.00232	100292	174.85	193.15		368.00233	103192	180.35	187.45		367.80234	108987	192.55	175.20		367.75235	104524	181.65	186.05		367.70236	105586	178.45	189.20		367.65237	108082	195.55	172.05		367.60238	100546	177.35	190.05		367.40239	100062	176.25	190.65		366.90240	106125	176.75	189.85		366.60241	103524	174.75	191.75		366.50242	109459	194.15	172.30		366.45243	107124	191.25	175.15		366.40244	102323	194.15	171.95		366.10245	110520	199.35	166.70		366.05246	103059	181.25	184.75		366.00247	105627	188.35	177.55		365.90248	104786	188.15	177.70		365.85249	102663	181.05	184.60		365.65250	108326	186.95	178.65		365.60251	102667	191.45	174.05		365.50252	102071	179.75	185.75		365.50253	101186	179.55	185.95		365.50254	101057	196.55	168.75		365.30255	103043	187.25	178.05		365.30256	107479	175.15	190.15		365.30257	105083	175.85	189.35		365.20258	100380	185.25	179.85		365.10259	104234	188.65	176.35		365.00260	102709	187.05	177.95		365.00261	106588	194.30	170.65		364.95262	103599	186.55	178.35		364.90263	101061	193.15	171.65		364.80264	105906	186.95	177.65		364.60265	104516	182.85	181.75		364.60266	102522	186.85	177.55		364.40267	101848	181.85	182.55		364.40268	110417	193.40	170.95		364.35269	105345	181.25	183.05		364.30270	104129	177.35	186.95		364.30271	104390	183.75	180.50		364.25272	108703	176.05	188.05		364.10273	100314	183.95	180.05		364.00274	108231	180.25	183.75		364.00275	102050	193.15	170.75		363.90276	107033	190.35	173.55		363.90277	100829	180.95	182.95		363.90278	110828	188.55	175.25		363.80279	105183	188.35	175.45		363.80280	111052	186.65	176.90		363.55281	103127	195.80	167.65		363.45282	103076	185.05	178.35		363.40283	106192	182.85	180.45		363.30284	102892	181.45	181.85		363.30285	106117	181.55	181.65		363.20286	107339	188.55	174.60		363.15287	104888	183.30	179.85		363.15288	109167	197.25	165.85		363.10289	100923	186.75	176.35		363.10290	105942	191.65	171.40		363.05291	104275	186.70	176.35		363.05292	109734	198.25	164.40		362.65293	101518	182.45	180.05		362.50294	103079	178.35	184.15		362.50295	105798	195.15	167.30		362.45296	106113	194.35	168.05		362.40297	107410	190.45	171.85		362.30298	109189	189.05	173.25		362.30299	100072	182.25	179.95		362.20300	103269	196.35	165.55		361.90301	101370	187.95	173.95		361.90302	106478	177.15	184.75		361.90303	107347	187.20	174.60		361.80304	105365	177.35	184.45		361.80305	110950	188.35	173.40		361.75306	100414	186.95	174.75		361.70307	111345	198.45	163.20		361.65308	109106	174.65	186.90		361.55309	107246	193.25	168.25		361.50310	100069	191.25	170.25		361.50311	102220	189.85	171.55		361.40312	101669	185.65	175.70		361.35313	108617	181.55	179.75		361.30314	104785	188.55	172.45		361.00315	105639	183.55	177.45		361.00316	107413	179.95	181.05		361.00317	102393	197.10	163.75		360.85318	109495	191.15	169.55		360.70319	100850	188.25	172.35		360.60320	100907	186.75	173.85		360.60321	106030	176.25	184.35		360.60322	106542	182.30	178.25		360.55323	108752	192.25	168.25		360.50324	107203	188.05	172.45		360.50325	106448	189.45	170.95		360.40326	105084	182.65	177.60		360.25327	101546	191.25	168.95		360.20328	101294	181.95	178.25		360.20329	105086	186.40	173.65		360.05330	100576	177.65	182.15		359.80331	101199	186.65	173.05		359.70332	100778	174.65	184.85		359.50333	107683	184.75	174.65		359.40334	106397	176.95	182.45		359.40335	108113	175.15	184.25		359.40336	100360	183.35	175.95		359.30337	103934	195.15	164.05		359.20338	110463	177.00	182.15		359.15339	108045	192.75	166.15		358.90340	107554	182.35	176.50		358.85341	101513	194.45	164.25		358.70342	105385	188.45	170.25		358.70343	101182	192.10	166.55		358.65344	105959	177.00	181.65		358.65345	100684	192.15	166.45		358.60346	103461	191.15	167.45		358.60347	106728	181.05	177.35		358.40348	105232	186.55	171.75		358.30349	101089	183.05	175.25		358.30350	100138	195.25	162.95		358.20351	103826	184.25	173.95		358.20352	101090	175.35	182.85		358.20353	105964	174.45	183.70		358.15354	106154	186.45	171.65		358.10355	109302	187.95	170.05		358.00356	104737	187.35	170.60		357.95357	105144	187.55	170.20		357.75358	106158	177.65	180.05		357.70359	100135	180.15	177.25		357.40360	105576	188.25	169.05		357.30361	100011	190.65	166.55		357.20362	104085	178.05	179.15		357.20363	109062	188.45	168.70		357.15364	101320	184.45	172.55		357.00365	104482	180.15	176.85		357.00366	102250	178.95	178.05		357.00367	100716	192.05	164.85		356.90368	102578	187.65	169.20		356.85369	109527	191.65	165.15		356.80370	103637	183.85	172.95		356.80371	101275	181.45	175.25		356.70372	101456	183.85	172.75		356.60373	100142	189.85	166.65		356.50374	100908	178.25	178.05		356.30375	102241	180.75	175.25		356.00376	102889	183.65	172.25		355.90377	104224	182.85	172.95		355.80378	102107	185.55	170.15		355.70379	102049	183.75	171.95		355.70380	101526	179.25	176.45		355.70381	100724	175.45	180.25		355.70382	105353	187.15	168.45		355.60383	107625	176.15	179.45		355.60384	104283	180.15	175.35		355.50385	100884	179.45	176.00		355.45386	108033	176.95	178.35		355.30387	108983	181.45	173.55		355.00388	104187	175.15	179.75		354.90389	104039	183.05	171.75		354.80390	109006	179.35	175.05		354.40391	105985	177.85	176.50		354.35392	100708	184.45	169.75		354.20393	100650	178.55	175.60		354.15394	111190	185.65	168.35		354.00395	106736	185.35	168.40		353.75396	107759	178.90	174.75		353.65397	100958	181.65	171.85		353.50398	102240	180.85	172.65		353.50399	101192	186.75	166.60		353.35400	103053	186.95	166.10		353.05401	105020	176.85	176.15		353.00402	103224	181.65	171.25		352.90403	102501	186.65	166.15		352.80404	101445	186.45	166.35		352.80405	104581	180.55	172.25		352.80406	102405	177.05	175.75		352.80407	105073	182.55	170.05		352.60408	100858	179.45	172.95		352.40409	100176	181.95	170.40		352.35410	106747	179.45	172.75		352.20411	106617	181.85	170.25		352.10412	102151	177.05	174.95		352.00413	102876	188.95	162.95		351.90414	108377	185.35	166.45		351.80415	108743	178.35	173.45		351.80416	100944	185.15	166.55		351.70417	105719	184.65	167.05		351.70418	107809	178.85	172.85		351.70419	109017	186.45	165.20		351.65420	102498	181.45	170.15		351.60421	108392	186.75	164.55		351.30422	103608	179.95	171.05		351.00423	101519	187.35	163.45		350.80424	102878	184.90	165.80		350.70425	110531	178.15	172.55		350.70426	103451	184.95	165.45		350.40427	100654	183.55	166.55		350.10428	105797	177.95	172.10		350.05429	107790	177.15	172.85		350.00430	101991	175.35	174.65		350.00431	107942	182.65	167.30		349.95432	104538	184.45	165.45		349.90433	102034	180.25	169.45		349.70434	101641	178.55	171.15		349.70435	105435	180.15	169.30		349.45436	107148	180.75	168.65		349.40437	104544	179.35	170.05		349.40438	104231	186.15	163.05		349.20439	109029	181.05	168.05		349.10440	104635	185.70	163.35		349.05441	100150	183.75	165.25		349.00442	108720	178.75	170.25		349.00443	106961	176.25	172.75		349.00444	100572	175.95	173.05		349.00445	100643	175.95	173.05		349.00446	103635	175.15	173.85		349.00447	111436	178.25	170.65		348.90448	104421	178.25	170.55		348.80449	104629	180.65	167.85		348.50450	105787	177.25	171.15		348.40451	101135	176.75	171.65		348.40452	107022	184.05	164.25		348.30453	104212	182.35	165.95		348.30454	100881	181.75	166.55		348.30455	100081	183.15	164.95		348.10456	106702	176.45	171.55		348.00457	106657	183.95	163.85		347.80458	108838	182.15	165.35		347.50459	101636	178.95	168.55		347.50460	102708	176.45	171.05		347.50461	108551	184.15	163.15		347.30462	111129	178.10	169.20		347.30463	100415	181.45	165.80		347.25464	102073	181.35	165.85		347.20465	110192	183.35	163.75		347.10466	102209	179.85	167.15		347.00467	107357	179.45	167.55		347.00468	111207	179.85	167.10		346.95469	104885	177.65	168.85		346.50470	102374	175.15	170.75		345.90471	104078	182.35	163.50		345.85472	101005	182.85	162.95		345.80473	102098	181.75	164.05		345.80474	105415	176.45	168.95		345.40475	103071	177.75	167.30		345.05476	107019	177.25	167.75		345.00477	101333	174.75	170.20		344.95478	101439	178.35	166.55		344.90479	109383	181.25	163.55		344.80480	108067	175.00	169.75		344.75481	105378	176.60	167.65		344.25482	108770	178.65	165.55		344.20483	100250	178.55	165.65		344.20484	104613	179.35	164.65		344.00485	104903	179.05	164.70		343.75486	109551	177.55	166.00		343.55487	106133	174.85	168.65		343.50488	105531	176.75	166.45		343.20489	105325	178.85	164.25		343.10490	109431	177.15	165.65		342.80491	102357	175.85	166.95		342.80492	101723	178.25	163.75		342.00493	104861	177.45	164.55		342.00494	110291	178.65	163.15		341.80495	105051	178.45	163.10		341.55496	106060	174.85	166.45		341.30497	102372	176.85	164.15		341.00498	107385	177.45	163.45		340.90499	105713	175.75	164.05		339.80500	110866	176.05	163.30		339.35
352... looks like I better be trending up this week... Good luck to 249 of you. :whistle:
 
All good stuff DD. You make it a lot more fun with all of these simulations and data!!

I was at #2132 in Week 2 power ranks and am still alive. This weeks simulations have me at #14 with a 71.2% probability of moving on. This is the farthest I have made it and it is a hell of a lot of fun, I love reading the banter from all of the guys that are still alive every week.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!! Heres to seeing 249 of you next week where we really get down and dirty!!

Team 103554

QB - Drew Brees - 23

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - Marion Barber - 40

RB - Thomas Jones - 21

RB - Jonathan Stewart - 21

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 15

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Steve Smith - 23

WR - Kevin Walter - 6

WR - Donnie Avery - 5

WR - DeSean Jackson - 4

WR - Devery Henderson - 2

TE - Greg Olsen - 10

TE - Dustin Keller - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

PK - Matt Prater - 1

TD - Minnesota Vikings - 8

TD - New York Jets - 2

 
Not sure if I should be ecstatic to be #84 on that list of the combined last two weeks :thumbup: or despondent over being #319 in the simulations :lmao: . I guess that is why they play the games on Sundays. ;)

 
Looking good so far for us 163 survivors with Chris Johnson. Already 20.4 points today, and it's still the first quarter. :lmao:

 
Looking good so far for us 163 survivors with Chris Johnson. Already 20.4 points today, and it's still the first quarter. :confused:
Thanks, saves me having to look up how many still have CJ.Final cut week is a great one to have him going against the Lions.
 
Well. 26.75 from Warner doesn't exactly create any separation. Me and my 407 closest contest friends are all on the same page there.

CJ3, DeSean, and TEN should help, though.

EDIT:

145 Romo owners are happy, 123 of whom also have (and this week don't need) Warner.

30 McNabb owners even happier, 20 of whom also don't need Warner.

(Only one guy has McNabb and Romo)

 
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Point totals (per Fantasy Star) for the players that played today (I'll list them by % owned, because that should have a bigger effect than points scored):

QB's

81.1% - Kurt Warner - 26.75

28.8% - Tony Romo - 34.95

6.0% - Donovan McNabb - 39.40

3.4% - Jon Kitna - 0.00

1.2% - Vince Young - 2.70

0.4% - Matt Leinart - 0.00

0.0% - Matt Hasselbeck - 14.35

RB's

32.4% - Chris Johnson - 26.40

30.2% - Marion Barber - 11.00

8.2% - Maurice Morris - 4.80

6.4% - Lorenzo Booker - 2.10

6.4% - TJ Duckett - 2.00

3.6% - Felix Jones - 0.00

2.2% - Kevin Smith - 3.60

1.4% - LenDale White - 22.60

1.2% - Brian Westbrook - 38.50

0.6% - Edgerrin James - 0.00

0.0% - Julius Jones - 3.70

0.0% - Leonard Weaver - 1.70

0.0% - Rudi Johnson - 0.00

WR's

47.5% - Calvin Johnson - 11.60

38.2% - DeSean Jackson - 20.20

19.3% - Steve Breaston - 16.50

14.3% - Anquan Boldin - 12.10

10.9% - Larry Fitzgerald - 23.50

10.3% - Patrick Crayton - 3.30

9.5% - Terrell Owens - 20.80

8.7% - Courtney Taylor - 0.00

7.6% - Justin Gage - 6.00

6.0% - Nate Burleson - 0.00

3.2% - Miles Austin - 0.00

1.6% - Deion Branch - 10.60

1.2% - Brandon Jones - 4.40

1.2% - Mike Furrey - 0.00

1.0% - Roy Williams - 8.40

1.0% - Ben Obomanu - 0.00

0.8% - Shaun McDonald - 8.40

0.6% - Sam Hurd - 0.00

0.4% - Justin McCareins - 6.30

0.4% - Reggie Brown - 0.00

0.2% - Roydell Williams - 0.00

0.2% - Biren Ealy - 0.00

0.2% - Paul Williams - 0.00

0.0% - Kevin Curtis - 10.90

0.0% - Bobby Engram - 8.50

0.0% - Lavelle Hawkins - 0.00

0.0% - Early Doucet - 0.00

TE's

8.2% - Alge Crumpler - 5.20

7.2% - LJ Smith - 7.70

5.8% - Jason Witten - 31.00

5.8% - John Carlson - 19.50

2.6% - Michael Gaines - 7.70

2.2% - Leonard Pope - 4.00

0.8% - Bo Scaife - 2.30

K's

25.2% - Jason Hanson - 7.00

15.7% - Nick Folk - 14.00

12.3% - Neil Rackers - 2.00

7.6% - Rob Bironas - 25.00

2.0% - Olindo Mare - 12.00

1.2% - David Akers - 16.00

0.8% - Brandon Coutu - 0.00

D's

12.7% - Cowboys - 11.00

12.1% - Lions - 3.00

11.9% - Eagles - 8.00

8.2% - Titans - 16.00

5.0% - Seahawks - 2.00

1.8% - Cardinals - 3.00

Overall, here is my take:

QB - 123 of the 145 Romo owners have Warner, as do 20 of the 30 McNabb owners. That's a minimum 143 of the 408 Warner owners that won't be using his score. IMO, this trio did their part in raising the cutline more than any position, mostly based on Warner/Romo's ownership %, and exceeding their projections. McNabb's rarity won't raise the cutline alot.

RB - Only 2 cutline movers here (CJ3 and MB3), because the rest are not all that common. Together, they kinda cancelled each other out, because they are owned at roughly the same %, and CJ3 scored about as much over his projection as MB3 did below his. LenDale and Westy blew away their projections, but are pretty rare.

WR - CJ2, Boldin, and Crayton underperformed vs their projections, while DeSean, Breaston, Fitz, and TO overperformed. Overall, the WR's should not move the cutline very much one way or the other.

TE's - Witten/Carlson should bump up the line a bit.

K's - Non-Bironas owners will be happy to see his low ownership %. This group should sway the line a tad on the higher side.

D's - A few teams bring the cut down, and a few bring it back up.

Hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. Good luck on Sunday.

 
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Week 13 simulations. Other nonsense to follow shortly...
Has me at #38 with a 2/3 chance of moving on. Not too bad a day yesterday:Warner 26.75

Barber 11.0 - should have been much more

Breaston 16.5

Hanson 7.0

TOTAL SO FAR = 61.25
Actually that's a horrible day. I would guess that if Doug re-runs the sims your advancement percentage would go down.
Not all that terrible. Dodds had that quartet projected for 55.8 points. But MB3's low score may end up hurting alot more than the overall numbers suggest.
 
Week 13 simulations. Other nonsense to follow shortly...
Has me at #38 with a 2/3 chance of moving on. Not too bad a day yesterday:Warner 26.75

Barber 11.0 - should have been much more

Breaston 16.5

Hanson 7.0

TOTAL SO FAR = 61.25
Actually that's a horrible day. I would guess that if Doug re-runs the sims your advancement percentage would go down.
Not all that terrible. Dodds had that quartet projected for 55.8 points. But MB3's low score may end up hurting alot more than the overall numbers suggest.
Well you can't count Warner since most everyone has him. The fact that Romo and McNabb went off means he lost ground to all those teams. His remaining QBs have a pretty high Warner bar to cross to make a difference. The Breston score is nice, but this late in the season that won't be a difference maker score.
 
Week 13 simulations. Other nonsense to follow shortly...
Has me at #38 with a 2/3 chance of moving on. Not too bad a day yesterday:Warner 26.75

Barber 11.0 - should have been much more

Breaston 16.5

Hanson 7.0

TOTAL SO FAR = 61.25
Actually that's a horrible day. I would guess that if Doug re-runs the sims your advancement percentage would go down.
Not all that terrible. Dodds had that quartet projected for 55.8 points. But MB3's low score may end up hurting alot more than the overall numbers suggest.
Well you can't count Warner since most everyone has him. The fact that Romo and McNabb went off means he lost ground to all those teams. His remaining QBs have a pretty high Warner bar to cross to make a difference. The Breston score is nice, but this late in the season that won't be a difference maker score.
I can agree with that. Depends on who else is on his team. The only one that might end up getting used out of that is Breaston... otherwise, he might get the boot!
 
Like last week, I re-ran the sim just before entering the Thursday scores, and just after. So no projections changed in between and the only differences should be from the games that are now in the books.

Before Thursday games

After Thursday games

The biggest mover is this team, which went from 27% to 89%, largely on the strength of being one of the six remaining Westbrook owners. He also had Bironas.

Meanwhile, this Barber/Boldin/Warner owner dropped from 64% to 18%.

Westbrook owners increased their chances by an average of 37 percentage points.

Witten owners increased their chances by an average of 31 percentage points.

Bironas owners by 25

McNabb owners by 18

Carlson owners by 12

Interestingly, Boldin owners lost only an average of 2.8 points off their expected score, but that was enough to drop their average survival rate by 13.4 percentage points.

Barber owners lost an average of 10 percentage points.

Calvin Johnson owners 6

 
270 to 166.

We're sitting @116.75 w/ Garrard, Ricky Williams, Turner, Walter, Clayton, Ginn, Keller, Daniels still to go (and that's w/ 0's for 3 WR's, 1 TE and 11 points from MBIII. Come on Turner!!!

 
Week 13 simulations. Other nonsense to follow shortly...
Has me at #38 with a 2/3 chance of moving on. Not too bad a day yesterday:Warner 26.75

Barber 11.0 - should have been much more

Breaston 16.5

Hanson 7.0

TOTAL SO FAR = 61.25
Actually that's a horrible day. I would guess that if Doug re-runs the sims your advancement percentage would go down.
Not all that terrible. Dodds had that quartet projected for 55.8 points. But MB3's low score may end up hurting alot more than the overall numbers suggest.
Well you can't count Warner since most everyone has him. The fact that Romo and McNabb went off means he lost ground to all those teams. His remaining QBs have a pretty high Warner bar to cross to make a difference. The Breston score is nice, but this late in the season that won't be a difference maker score.
Bass is actually correct. Even though Barber would be the only one of these players that would be considered my starter (I've also got Brees), I fell from #87 to #275 with a 44.9% chance of survival!
 
Week 13 simulations. Other nonsense to follow shortly...
Has me at #38 with a 2/3 chance of moving on. Not too bad a day yesterday:Warner 26.75

Barber 11.0 - should have been much more

Breaston 16.5

Hanson 7.0

TOTAL SO FAR = 61.25
Actually that's a horrible day. I would guess that if Doug re-runs the sims your advancement percentage would go down.
Not all that terrible. Dodds had that quartet projected for 55.8 points. But MB3's low score may end up hurting alot more than the overall numbers suggest.
Well you can't count Warner since most everyone has him. The fact that Romo and McNabb went off means he lost ground to all those teams. His remaining QBs have a pretty high Warner bar to cross to make a difference. The Breston score is nice, but this late in the season that won't be a difference maker score.
Bass is actually correct. Even though Barber would be the only one of these players that would be considered my starter (I've also got Brees), I fell from #87 to #275 with a 44.9% chance of survival!
Best of luck Marvin...it onnly takes one or two going off to change things up quickly.
 
So, 123 of the 145 Romo owners own Warner and 20 of the 30 McNabb owners have him. That means that people like me who have Warner but not Romo or McNabb, are tied with 265 other teams. We are behind 144 people by 8.2 points and behind 30 others by 12.65. We are ahead of 92 people (only because they haven't had a QB play).

Not a good start if you don't have other QB options like me (Delhomme and Schaub). Tied with 265 teams for 175th place, with some of those 265 teams likely to have other options that could beat Warner (137 teams have Warner and Brees but not Romo or McNabb).

I guess I am relegated to hoping that no other QB beats Warner. Which may happen because most of the top guys are up against decent defenses. Then I just need to hope for my RB and WR compilations to out perform 190 of the non-Romo/McNabb teams with Warner.

Sounds simple enough. Go Selvin Young!!!!

 
So, 123 of the 145 Romo owners own Warner and 20 of the 30 McNabb owners have him. That means that people like me who have Warner but not Romo or McNabb, are tied with 265 other teams. We are behind 144 people by 8.2 points and behind 30 others by 12.65. We are ahead of 92 people (only because they haven't had a QB play).Not a good start if you don't have other QB options like me (Delhomme and Schaub). Tied with 265 teams for 175th place, with some of those 265 teams likely to have other options that could beat Warner (137 teams have Warner and Brees but not Romo or McNabb).I guess I am relegated to hoping that no other QB beats Warner. Which may happen because most of the top guys are up against decent defenses. Then I just need to hope for my RB and WR compilations to out perform 190 of the non-Romo/McNabb teams with Warner.Sounds simple enough. Go Selvin Young!!!!
It's a tough week for everyone... a 50% cut and all the remaining teams are stacked with players who have been scoring consistently.
 
It definitely helps having Bironas this week along w/ the Tenn D.

Now if a guy like Mark Clayton, Ted Ginn, or Sidney Rice could go off, just this one game, I'll be very happy.

 
Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.

 
Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.
It's always a balancing act in how much to root for contest team players going against my FF teams.It helps having several of them on my FF teams, e.g. I have CJ4, Slaton, Romo, and Warner on all my teams.Ultimately though, I'd rather advance in the $35k contest. :popcorn:
 
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Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.
I'm absolutely in this boat.Last week I was clinging to a 27 point lead while my opponent had Brees/Moore playing on Monday night and I was done.But I was rooting like crazy for Brees to go off like he did because I needed him to score about 30 in the contest to keep me alive.I was glad to sacrifice a league win to stay alive in this contest.
 
Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.
I'm absolutely in this boat.Last week I was clinging to a 27 point lead while my opponent had Brees/Moore playing on Monday night and I was done.But I was rooting like crazy for Brees to go off like he did because I needed him to score about 30 in the contest to keep me alive.I was glad to sacrifice a league win to stay alive in this contest.
I hear you. I've gotten to the point where I am rooting for players that will essentially knock me out of the playoffs in a few leagues just to stay alive in this contest. Sadly, I think my contest team is too common to cash in, but I've had more fun in this contest than all my leagues. I'd rather finish 250th in this instead of SB champs in my leagues (even with triple digit $'s on the line in 2 of my leagues). I will surely pay my fee once again just to participate in next year's contest. I've advanced farther each of the last 3 years, and will devote more time to choosing my team in 2009 than I will in my dynasty/keeper leagues.
 
A few years ago, I finished fourth in a playoff contest sponsored by Best Buy. Got a Bose home theater out of the deal (thanks, Greg Lewis). Ever since, I've become increasingly focused on contests. I'll make the playoffs in both of my HTH leagues, but I don't sweat them like I do this contest.

 
A few years ago, I finished fourth in a playoff contest sponsored by Best Buy. Got a Bose home theater out of the deal (thanks, Greg Lewis). Ever since, I've become increasingly focused on contests. I'll make the playoffs in both of my HTH leagues, but I don't sweat them like I do this contest.
I started nice in the NBC $100K contest (chose Romo, McNabb, TO, and TEN D this week to get things rolling). It just sucks that you can't click on a team to see their lineups, even once they've played. Surely some clown went with McNabb, Romo, Westy, CJ3, Witten, Bironas, and TEN D, or at least that's what NBC will say. :football: At least in our FBG contest you can see the teams you are up against. I started the week at #66 with a 63.5% survival probability and fell to #170 with a 59.8% survival probability. My only Thursday players were Warner, MoMo, Breaston, and Hanson. I'm sure the 74 owners of the MB3/CJ2 combo can't be too happy.
 
Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.
Absolutely. I've had enough of the crap in my two H2H leagues that I'm quitting them (after 15 years!) I'll play this contest next season (along w/ other similar contests) and I'll have just as much fun, if not more!
 
Is anyone other than me actually enjoying this contest more than their leagues, even though you are heading to your playoffs? I have found myself rooting for my contest players, even when I am facing them in my leagues. This week I am facing nearly half my contest players in leagues, and am pulling for them.
Absolutely. I've had enough of the crap in my two H2H leagues that I'm quitting them (after 15 years!) I'll play this contest next season (along w/ other similar contests) and I'll have just as much fun, if not more!
Sounds good, but just a thought... as fun as this contest is, it's always crushing if/when you go out, especially if it happens earlier than later.And once out, there's a big void.

I like having both my FF teams and this contest, but FF is no fun if your league's are getting snippy.

 
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Could be a rough day for teams relying on major points from Cutler.

Royal and Scheffler are injured, bad weather in NY.

Luckily I've already got Romo's points in the bank so I won't mind a poor outing by Cutler this week.

:banned:

 

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