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2008 Baseball wagering thread (1 Viewer)

Angry Beavers

Angry Beavers

Footballguy
Let's get this started! I had a strong year last year, and am hoping to do the same again.

Boston -1.5 EV for 1 unit

Dice K returns to Japan. He will be a much better Pitcher this year, IMHO. I am willing the lay the 1.5 runs in this spot

GLTA

 
Hey Dog System followers, do you check it every single morning? I'm trying to come up with a way to track the results, but because it doesn't do anything until the page is loaded, that could lead to incomplete results if a whole day or a few morning games are missed.

It appears that the earliest games start by ~12:30 ET, so if someone is checking the page by noon, that should be a good time to capture the day's picks. Of course, lines change throughout the day, so a pick at noon might not be a pick a couple hours later, and vice-versa.

I suppose I could just capture the rankings and standings (for the streaks), then fold those into the gametime line archives from say covers.com anytime after the fact. This would still require the page being loaded before the first games. If the standings page is updated throughout the day as games are completed, it would introduce invalid values.

Hmm.....

 
RS

I usually check the Dog system page every morning time permitting. I use it as a starting off point for the day's plays.

Hope that helps

 
RoarinSonoran said:
Hey Dog System followers, do you check it every single morning? I'm trying to come up with a way to track the results, but because it doesn't do anything until the page is loaded, that could lead to incomplete results if a whole day or a few morning games are missed.

It appears that the earliest games start by ~12:30 ET, so if someone is checking the page by noon, that should be a good time to capture the day's picks. Of course, lines change throughout the day, so a pick at noon might not be a pick a couple hours later, and vice-versa.

I suppose I could just capture the rankings and standings (for the streaks), then fold those into the gametime line archives from say covers.com anytime after the fact. This would still require the page being loaded before the first games. If the standings page is updated throughout the day as games are completed, it would introduce invalid values.

Hmm.....
Click to expand...
I look at it occasionally, but not on any consistent schedule. Here it is:

http://roarinsonoran.hypermart.net/dogsystem.html

 
Rock Lonemilk said:
RoarinSonoran said:
Hey Dog System followers, do you check it every single morning? I'm trying to come up with a way to track the results, but because it doesn't do anything until the page is loaded, that could lead to incomplete results if a whole day or a few morning games are missed.

It appears that the earliest games start by ~12:30 ET, so if someone is checking the page by noon, that should be a good time to capture the day's picks. Of course, lines change throughout the day, so a pick at noon might not be a pick a couple hours later, and vice-versa.

I suppose I could just capture the rankings and standings (for the streaks), then fold those into the gametime line archives from say covers.com anytime after the fact. This would still require the page being loaded before the first games. If the standings page is updated throughout the day as games are completed, it would introduce invalid values.

Hmm.....
Click to expand...
I look at it occasionally, but not on any consistent schedule. Here it is:

http://roarinsonoran.hypermart.net/dogsystem.html
Click to expand...
What were the dog system results from last year?
 
culdeus said:
Rock Lonemilk said:
RoarinSonoran said:
Hey Dog System followers, do you check it every single morning? I'm trying to come up with a way to track the results, but because it doesn't do anything until the page is loaded, that could lead to incomplete results if a whole day or a few morning games are missed.

It appears that the earliest games start by ~12:30 ET, so if someone is checking the page by noon, that should be a good time to capture the day's picks. Of course, lines change throughout the day, so a pick at noon might not be a pick a couple hours later, and vice-versa.

I suppose I could just capture the rankings and standings (for the streaks), then fold those into the gametime line archives from say covers.com anytime after the fact. This would still require the page being loaded before the first games. If the standings page is updated throughout the day as games are completed, it would introduce invalid values.

Hmm.....
Click to expand...
I look at it occasionally, but not on any consistent schedule. Here it is:

http://roarinsonoran.hypermart.net/dogsystem.html
Click to expand...
What were the dog system results from last year?
Click to expand...
Dunno, that's why I'm looking into some way to track it. I think AB ended last year's thread saying he was up 200 units, but I don't know if that was all from the system.
 
Prosposis was up 200 units

I went for a mere 50 :thumbdown:

I did not track the system at all....

if memory from past results is worth anything the best thing to do is wait two weeks and then play it. the past two years I have been able to get off to a good start taking advantage of lines that have not caught up to certain starters yet. Things tend to get harder to pick around june 1, IMHO.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Prosposis was up 200 unitsI went for a mere 50 :coffee:I did not track the system at all....if memory from past results is worth anything the best thing to do is wait two weeks and then play it. the past two years I have been able to get off to a good start taking advantage of lines that have not caught up to certain starters yet. Things tend to get harder to pick around june 1, IMHO.
Click to expand...
I was tracking for a while and it was great. I did very well last year. My account is now at an all time low. The NCAA tourney is killing me. I hope to build it back up with MLB.
 
Somebody explain to me how to gamble or read lines on baseball. I have no idea what is going with betting on baseball games. What exactly are you looking for when you read a line?

 
Nice start to the season, Pros.

I am these for now... I may add in the am

These are all system plays in which the dog ought to be the dog for the whole series. I will be playing this system this year and will post the plays here. There are certain qualifiers that not all dogs for entire series will qualify for. THis system has been good for roughly 40+ units per season the past couple of years. After that, there tend to be fewer plays and the system loses some steam, so it seems. IF these lose, I will be doubling up etc. until we have a winner.

GLTA

3/31/2008 2:20:01 PM - EST

Milwaukee Brewers ( Money Line +105 ) for Game

Ben Sheets - R must Start

Carlos Zambrano - R must Start

3/31/2008 3:05:01 PM - EST

Washington Nationals ( Money Line +180 ) for Game

Matt Chico - L must Start

Brett Myers - R must Start

MLB Baseball

3/31/2008 4:10:01 PM - EST

San Francisco Giants ( Money Line +155 ) for Game

Barry Zito - L must Start

Brad Penny - R must Start

MLB Baseball

3/31/2008 10:05:01 PM - EST

Houston Astros ( Money Line +145 ) for Game

Roy Oswalt - R must Start

Jake Peavy - R must Start

MLB Baseball

3/31/2008 3:05:01 PM - EST

Chicago White Sox ( Money Line +155 ) for Game

Mark Buehrle - L must Start

C.C. Sabathia - L must Start

MLB Baseball

3/31/2008 6:40:01 PM - EST

Texas Rangers ( Money Line +170 ) for Game

Kevin Millwood - R must Start

Erik Bedard - L must Start

GLTA

AB

YTD

Sides 0-1 -1.0

System plays 0-0

 
Last edited by a moderator:
leans to Tor +140

Balt/TB Under and

AZ -102

Not a lot of time at the moment......

I will just say I think that AZ and Tor offer good value and the under ought to be in play between two, IMHO, underrated pitchers.

I have not played these yet, but will check in later.

Green94 - Let's hit Tor!

AB

 
Arizona Diamondbacks ( Money Line -110 ) for Game

Brandon Webb - R must Start

Aaron Harang - R must Start

Toronto Blue Jays ( Money Line +135 ) for Game

Roy Halladay - R must Start

Chien-Ming Wang - R must Start

each for a unit

the juice on the under was 9 -120: I passed

GLTA

 
AB - that's a lot of road teams you're on today. Not sure I like a few of them...lemme do a little more digging here.

 
guru_007 said:
AB - that's a lot of road teams you're on today. Not sure I like a few of them...lemme do a little more digging here.
Click to expand...
agreed Guru, just playing the system....let me add this nugget from Statfox: Halladay, has won his last four decisions against New York and the Blue Jays are 7-1 against the Yankees when he starts since October of 2004.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Angry Beavers said:
Nice start to the season, Pros.

I am these for now... I may add in the am

These are all system plays in which the dog ought to be the dog for the whole series. I will be playing this system this year and will post the plays here. There are certain qualifiers that not all dogs for entire series will qualify for. THis system has been good for roughly 40+ units per season the past couple of years. After that, there tend to be fewer plays and the system loses some steam, so it seems. IF these lose, I will be doubling up etc. until we have a winner.
Click to expand...
Wait, first off how do you know you'll have a dog the whole series? How long will you double up? I mean you'll risk 1,2,4 units for a 7u loss for a series sweep if it happens? What if the dog you thought would be a dog gets short or for some reason flips to chalk after a loss (In this setup posted above Mil might do this)

Then "after that" . After what?

 
culdeus said:
Angry Beavers said:
Nice start to the season, Pros.

I am these for now... I may add in the am

These are all system plays in which the dog ought to be the dog for the whole series. I will be playing this system this year and will post the plays here. There are certain qualifiers that not all dogs for entire series will qualify for. THis system has been good for roughly 40+ units per season the past couple of years. After that, there tend to be fewer plays and the system loses some steam, so it seems. IF these lose, I will be doubling up etc. until we have a winner.
Click to expand...
Wait, first off how do you know you'll have a dog the whole series? How long will you double up? I mean you'll risk 1,2,4 units for a 7u loss for a series sweep if it happens? What if the dog you thought would be a dog gets short or for some reason flips to chalk after a loss (In this setup posted above Mil might do this)

Then "after that" . After what?
Click to expand...
it is an educated guess that one team will be a dog each game of the series.Yes, You could lose 7 units on any one series

After getting up roughly 40 units, the system seems to lose steam

Hope this helps....

PS - Mil wins today so no worries ... :thumbup:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Angry Beavers said:
culdeus said:
Angry Beavers said:
Nice start to the season, Pros.

I am these for now... I may add in the am

These are all system plays in which the dog ought to be the dog for the whole series. I will be playing this system this year and will post the plays here. There are certain qualifiers that not all dogs for entire series will qualify for. THis system has been good for roughly 40+ units per season the past couple of years. After that, there tend to be fewer plays and the system loses some steam, so it seems. IF these lose, I will be doubling up etc. until we have a winner.
Click to expand...
Wait, first off how do you know you'll have a dog the whole series? How long will you double up? I mean you'll risk 1,2,4 units for a 7u loss for a series sweep if it happens? What if the dog you thought would be a dog gets short or for some reason flips to chalk after a loss (In this setup posted above Mil might do this)

Then "after that" . After what?
Click to expand...
it is an educated guess that one team will be a dog each game of the series.Yes, You could lose 7 units on any one series

After getting up roughly 40 units, the system seems to lose steam

Hope this helps....

PS - Mil wins today so no worries ... :lmao:
Click to expand...
So after taking one win in a set you quit?
 
So far I'm on the following:

Cubs/Mil u10 (even) both Sheets and Zambrano are strong enough to get deep. Although both bullpens scare me, I think it stays under the number

Philly (Myers) -205 Washington played last night, and was amped up, big let down spot and Philly's home opener. Yeah, huge juice here, but Myers is so much better than Chico that I'll lay it

Cincy (Harang) -109 Harang as usual is undervalued here imo. Webb was beaten up all spring and I think it takes him a few starts to get into his rhythm. If memory serves (and to be honest my memory is half shot right now), he was just so-so last year until he had some insane scoreless innings streak. I think home team gets the job done with their ace on the mound.

ChiSox/Cleveland o8.5 -110 slugfest at the Jake. Winds blowing out at Wrigley.

g'luck

 
Angry Beavers - I bet on the same 6 dogs based on jkaul's analysis at statfox. I did not, however, click the "must start" box for the pitchers. Do you really think that's necessary?

 
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