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2008 Baseball wagering thread (1 Viewer)

lumpy19 said:
Quick question for you RS...or anyone more familiar with using these guidelines to bet

according to the rules of the system from the original writeup linked on your page

Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin® on USA Today’s Web site (see above for a further explanation).
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but on the quick notes at the bottom of the page it says
Dog system rules in brief:

- pass on dog losing streak of 3+, fave winning streak of 3+, dog ML odds > +150, or top 30 fave pitcher

- also, bet the under if both pitchers are top 20
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Just wondering if that's a typo of if there's a reason you've extended it from top 20 to top 30?
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I don't remember the discussion we had at the time, but perhaps we decided that top30 would be better...??? :unsure: Either that, or the guidelines page was changed to top20. If Marshall Plan is around, perhaps he can offer his two cents. He's the one who brought the system to our attention.
 
Morning everyone.

I'm going to take a shot on Cook and the Rocks today in Wrigley at +138. Was mildly tempted to play the under 11.5 -105, but will not.

Also jumped back into a little Cosjobs Special Round Robin Parlay action. I could really use this one...

Baseball - 903 Florida Marlins +141 for Game

Baseball - 905 Los Angeles Dodgers +126 for Game

Baseball - 909 Houston Astros +121 for Game

Baseball - 918 Baltimore Orioles +135 for Game

 
General Malaise said:
General Malaise said:
Morning everyone.

I'm going to take a shot on Cook and the Rocks today in Wrigley at +138. Was mildly tempted to play the under 11.5 -105, but will not.
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sigh...I give up.
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I was with ya yesterday. I checked the score, it was 9-1 I was :excited: and then when I got home I was :cry: Going 0-6 the rest of the day didn't help

All over CLE today, the line is way off cause KC has lost 12 in a row. I'm also on COL again :bag:

 
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JaxBill said:
I can't wait to see how high the over/unders are for the Marlins/Phils this weekend at CBP.
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GB the overs (3-0) in this series. They're about the only things I've hit all weekend.Any thoughts on the Kuroda-Santana matchup tonight. Mets are overwhelming favorites but I'm intrigued by the over 7.5 or LAD +167. On one hand, you have a team with a dominant pitcher wrapping up a homestand. On the other hand, you have a young team that lost a close game yesterday and wrapping up a road trip.
 
Heck, I can't stand it. I got LAD +174.

(rationalization for betting against heavily favored pitcher and following gut...)

Dodgers are 10-4 vs LHP and Mets are 14-21 vs RHP.

 
Wow....horrendous weekend for the dog system...HORRENDOUS.

0-4 today, couple units yesterday and 0-5 or 6 on friday....this weekend wiped out 2 months of grinding profit :rolleyes:

Wow what a horrible weekend.

 
lumpy19 said:
Wow....horrendous weekend for the dog system...HORRENDOUS.0-4 today, couple units yesterday and 0-5 or 6 on friday....this weekend wiped out 2 months of grinding profit :( Wow what a horrible weekend.
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Yeah its been a tough stretch...not liking much today :(
 
Time to start trying to grind out some winners:

NYY -120

Fla/ Phil O 9.5 Ev

NYM -1.5 +120

GLTA

GM - I like the stones you have in fading Wandy on the road! G'luck

AB

 
been riding the cubs till now. because i had to say something...

update: didnt learn my lesson, im parlaying cubs -119 (lilly) with the over(7.5)

maddux and lilly, easily over 8 today....

 
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Tor +155 ( day Game) :lmao: that is the worst BJ um... Ryan Ever :shrug:

Cle -130

More to come

added LAD -1.5 +170

LaLakers ( Wrong thread - like I care) +130

GLTA

 
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I'm on Randy Wolf +140 tonight. Yeah, I know he's facing Santana, but the Mets are in the middle of the dreaded West Coast roadtrip.

 
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Gambler said:
Sunday's PlaysPitBosMilTBSDGood Luck
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Tailed you on Boston and TB. 1 for 1 so far. Pissed that I just got closed out of a Det/Mil/CHW parlay because the Tigers game had just started as I tried to get it in.
 
lumpy19 said:
CIN line is WAY off and I have no idea why.CINTOR
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Relatively new to baseball betting so sorry if I'm missing something obvious -What makes you say the line is way off? Volquez is obviously a stud but given how bad Cincy is on the road, you don't think -130 is a good price for the Reds?
 
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sheerterror said:
lumpy19 said:
CIN line is WAY off and I have no idea why.CINTOR
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Relatively new to baseball betting so sorry if I'm missing something obvious -What makes you say the line is way off? Volquez is obviously a stud but given how bad Cincy is on the road, you don't think -130 is a good price for the Reds?
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Couple things...Volquez gets discounted because he's a rookie, he's not a flukeProjected line at SBR Lines(which is usually pretty accurate) was -226 and line opened at -150 and still got bet downJust thought there was some value there, line just didn't look right :hey: Looking at lines everyday every once in a while one just doesn't make sense and this was one of those for me.Like tonight because the Mets have been losing everyone is on the mets. While the dbacks have been terrible, Webb has not been. Pelfrey has not been good. As a Mets have I've seen most of his starts, he's just not there yet. Plus the Mets aren't as good as everyone thinks they are.
 
lumpy19 said:
sheerterror said:
lumpy19 said:
CIN line is WAY off and I have no idea why.CINTOR
Click to expand...
Relatively new to baseball betting so sorry if I'm missing something obvious -What makes you say the line is way off? Volquez is obviously a stud but given how bad Cincy is on the road, you don't think -130 is a good price for the Reds?
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Couple things...Volquez gets discounted because he's a rookie, he's not a flukeProjected line at SBR Lines(which is usually pretty accurate) was -226 and line opened at -150 and still got bet downJust thought there was some value there, line just didn't look right :coffee: Looking at lines everyday every once in a while one just doesn't make sense and this was one of those for me.Like tonight because the Mets have been losing everyone is on the mets. While the dbacks have been terrible, Webb has not been. Pelfrey has not been good. As a Mets have I've seen most of his starts, he's just not there yet. Plus the Mets aren't as good as everyone thinks they are.
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Gotcha. Ending up with the Reds in a parlay that night but lost thanks to Toronto.Agree with you on the Dbacks, love them tonight. I was actually surprised to see that line at only -125 when I got to it. The Mets are on a 5 game losing streak that includes being swept by San Diego. I'm in NY so I see a lot of Met games and they just don't seem to have it this year. I look for Webb to mow them down.Also big on the Cubs despite the price at -175, considering Atlanta is start Bennett and is absolutely dreadful on the road. Like San Fran too. Colorado is bad and Lincecum is a stud.
 
Does anyone have any historical data on the dog system? past years performance?

ETA: another horrendous night for this system on a night with 10 plays. The last month has been horrific. 2-7 with one game to go

 
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Another 8 plays tonight....10 plays if you use top 20 instead of top 30 :unsure:

ETA: 0-4 so far....pretty much done with this dog system. I'd lose money slower if I burned 100's to start a bonfire every night

2nd edit: 1-7 on the night......and that'll do it for this baseball season.

 
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Love the Angels tonight. Santana going against a kid making his MLB debut. Atlanta hasn't won 2 road games in a row all season. I look for the Angels to bounce back from yesterday.

 
What are the pros opinions of these "first 5 innings" bets? Any value to be had there? Usually the spread just leans a little tighter to the stronger SP obviously. I've always just passed over those lines as if they were invisible.

 
Some huge lines out there today. I know Duchsherer has had a great year, but Andrew Miller has let up 2 ER over 14 innings in his last 2 starts. I'm on FLA +147.

I'm tempted by Cueto +185 against the Yankees but I just can't see the Reds pulling off the sweep.

 
JaxBill said:
Some huge lines out there today. I know Duchsherer has had a great year, but Andrew Miller has let up 2 ER over 14 innings in his last 2 starts. I'm on FLA +147.I'm tempted by Cueto +185 against the Yankees but I just can't see the Reds pulling off the sweep.
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For that same reason - I'm tempting to play the Yankees. I just don't see how the Reds pull off a sweep on the road. Just saw my line moved to -235 on the Yanks, obviously a bunch of other people feel the same way.
 
I went 3-1 yesterday on PIT, TOR, DET, FL. The reason I bring it up is that basically I was fading teams that were at the end of a road trip and had a substantial travel distance postgame. (I threw out crosstown/ cross-state rivalries.)

 
JaxBill said:
I went 3-1 yesterday on PIT, TOR, DET, FL. The reason I bring it up is that basically I was fading teams that were at the end of a road trip and had a substantial travel distance postgame. (I threw out crosstown/ cross-state rivalries.)
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Why did philly not qualify?
 
culdeus said:
JaxBill said:
I went 3-1 yesterday on PIT, TOR, DET, FL. The reason I bring it up is that basically I was fading teams that were at the end of a road trip and had a substantial travel distance postgame. (I threw out crosstown/ cross-state rivalries.)
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Why did philly not qualify?
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They're still on the road. They go to ATL. The road trip isn't over.Unfortunately, I'm a Phils fan who bought tickets for Thursday's game in ATL - which will be the last game of the trip.
 
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