What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

2008 Sleepers/Breakthrough players (1 Viewer)

A

AtomicDogg97

Footballguy
Which players do you think will be sleepers/ breakthrough players for the 2008 season, judging by where they are going in drafts?

 
Well let me see if I can ressurect this thread. What about Delmon Young being a breakthrough player? I could see him hitting .300 with 30 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs, and 25 steals.

Am I crazy?

 
AtomicDogg97 said:
Well let me see if I can ressurect this thread. What about Delmon Young being a breakthrough player? I could see him hitting .300 with 30 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs, and 25 steals.Am I crazy?
Click to expand...
I like Delmon, and I'd love to see him find his power this year, but that would be quite a jump. 25 steals seems like a big stretch, too.I'll guess .295, 23 HR, 105 RBIs, 75 runs, 10 steals
 
Last edited by a moderator:
AtomicDogg97 said:
Well let me see if I can ressurect this thread. What about Delmon Young being a breakthrough player? I could see him hitting .300 with 30 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs, and 25 steals.Am I crazy?
Click to expand...
Not as crazy as Delmon is. The line you posted is probably his maximum upside. You're projecting an 100% increase in SB & HR. I think he'll struggle to hit .300 and score 100 R with his strikeout rate and OBP..280, 22 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 20 SB is more realistic IMO. Anything above that would be gravy.
 
Eephus said:
AtomicDogg97 said:
Well let me see if I can ressurect this thread. What about Delmon Young being a breakthrough player? I could see him hitting .300 with 30 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs, and 25 steals.Am I crazy?
Click to expand...
Not as crazy as Delmon is. The line you posted is probably his maximum upside. You're projecting an 100% increase in SB & HR. I think he'll struggle to hit .300 and score 100 R with his strikeout rate and OBP..280, 22 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 20 SB is more realistic IMO. Anything above that would be gravy.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I have him for almost identical numbers, a little less steals though. Matt Kemp's my sleeper/break through candidate. He's not being drafted in the 140 range anymore, closer to 100, but his worst case is being stuck in a platoon and being a 30-35th ranked OF (which would still justify selecting him in the 9th round) while his upside is top 10. I think he has 320/100/20/100/20 upside, Hunter Pence-like numbers five rounds later.
 
The Ghost of Common said:
I'm all about Ian Snell. I don't know if many people are sleeping on him but he will be on my teams this year.I see 180ks, 12 wins and an era just under 4 attaianable. He wore down last season but I think he keeps it going solid all year this year.Grab Snell in round 12 or 13, I don't think you'll be disappointed.
Click to expand...
Looks like the same thing written about Zack Duke last year at this time. I avoid Buccos like the plague. :rolleyes:
 
Black&Gold said:
The Ghost of Common said:
I'm all about Ian Snell. I don't know if many people are sleeping on him but he will be on my teams this year.I see 180ks, 12 wins and an era just under 4 attaianable. He wore down last season but I think he keeps it going solid all year this year.Grab Snell in round 12 or 13, I don't think you'll be disappointed.
Click to expand...
Looks like the same thing written about Zack Duke last year at this time. I avoid Buccos like the plague. :wall:
Click to expand...
Duke would be lucky to get 180 K's in the next two years. I don't think anyone ever had him down for those kind of numbers.
 
I had to wait until I drafted him in the FBG Dynasty League but I like Lastings Milledge this year. Acta seems willing to let him play this year so he won't sit in favor of Shawn Green. If he is able to bat in the top half of the Nats order, he should be productive.

Delmon Young 2007 (age 21):

.288 .316 .408 w/ 13 HR & 10 SB in 681 PAs

Milledge 2007 (age 22):

.272 .341 .446 w/ 7 HR & 3 SB in 206 PAs

I don't have access to deep ADP data but Yahoo ranks Delmon in the 90s and Milledge above 300.

 
Closers on bad teams are always great sleepers.

####adome from the Cubs looks like he may be a special player.

Many White Sox will have great value. Whole team coming off a horrible year playing in a hitters park.

 
I think Loney will break out in a big way

I also like Francoeur for cheap rather than pay for bigger names like Andruw Jones, Matsui....

 
list below is either more established players who are either going lower than i personally think they should, and therefore represent good value, or players due for breakout/sleeper campaigns:

vernon wells (reportedly over his shoulder injuries)

Swisher (will tear up us cellular this year, relatively cheap source of 35 HR)...edit to add fantasy baseball cafe's outlook on swisher: Nick Swisher- White Sox Not so far down on draft boards this year we find Nick Swisher, who was traded in the off-season to the White Sox. You couldn’t ask for a much better change of scenery for Swisher, who saw his home run total plummet from 35 in 2006, to 22 in 2007. Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum is notoriously a pitcher’s park which, according to ESPN.com, caused a 32% loss in home runs from the league average while U.S. Cellular field gave a 22% boost. Applying these numbers to Swisher, his 22 HR season in Oakland turns into a 34 HR season in Chicago. Its not quite as easy as just saying that he would have hit 12 more home runs in 2007 had he been with Chicago, but needless to say, the move should provide a solid boost to Swisher’s power numbers. Swisher’s loss of power last year is somewhat difficult to explain, his FB% remained high, but not nearly as many left the park and his HR/FB sustained a large drop. This is partially due to the league-wide power outage last year, but I feel it can be somewhat attributed to a lack of protection in Oakland’s injury plagued lineup. Hitting behind Orlando Cabrera and in front of Thome and Konerko puts him in one of the best situations he’s ever hit in, and given the added protection I expect his HR/FB to bounce back closer to his 2006 level. Given the new stadium and lineup, I expect big things from Swisher this year along the lines of .265-100-35-100 with 40 HR upside.

Snell

Matt cain (w's aren't good, might get double digits if he's lucky on that bad SF team, but a stud in virtually every other P cat)

Ryan zZmmerman (power is legit, nats move to HR friendly new field)

Kazmir/Shields/even Garza (D’Rays are MUCH improved, Kaz gets tons of K’s...with injury risk...Shields might be a co-#1 to Kaz...and Garze will ikmprove from last year, though prob another year away from being a stud)

Howie Kendrick (will compete for AL batting title, score nice runs in that tough Angels lineup)

Brett Myers (flip-flopping between pen and starter last year hurt, but he’ll give you innings, K’s and wins)

Alex Gordon (too much “the next George Brett” pressure last year, is the real deal, a solid 3B starter you can get late)

Juan Pierre (people write him off every year, and then he steals 50 bags, hits for average, and helps in most cats other than HR)

Randy Winn (bear with me here...every year this guy puts up totally unnoticed but pretty solid #s across the board: last year 178 hits, 15 SB, 14 HRs, .300 avg...would you rather have him in the last round or abreu’s very similar numbers in the 5th?)

Borowski (ERA is scary, but still the closer on a very good to great team)

Manny Ramirez (45h/5th rounder now thanks to one non-mannny-like year, in great shape, still a great lineup, will hit like a 3rd rounder)

Michael Bourn/Jerry Owens/Rajai Davis/Willy Taveras (great sources of late cheap speed...and taveras will give you AVG)

Manny Corpas (great team, set closer w/ new contract)

George Sherill (think bj ryan when he first became a closer...LHP who gets righties out, has all but won the closer job in BAL)

yunel escobar (ATL SS/2B/3B..hit .326 in 94 games last year,...good fielder, will bat 1 or 2 at top of good lineup)

josh fields (assuming he beats out stiff joe crede, fieldd has legit 30-35 HR power)

rickie weeks (another guy people mightve forgotten about...locked into the 2B job in MIL)

miguel tejada (perfect swing for minute maid park, won't be suspended, great lineup around him, healthy, all signs point to a comeback year)

luke scott (had to fight for PT in HOU< has a full-time gig in BAL now, good power)

bartolo colon (seriously....iif he stays healthy he's in the perfect situation, on a potent team that can win him those 8-6 games)

franklin guittierez (OF CLE, hit a low .266 but with 13 HRS in 217 ABs or something, has good speed, could be a 20-20 guy)

chipper jones (going later than adrian beltre in some leagues, crazy for a guy who rocked in OPS, SLG last year, and has hit 25 HRs or more 9 of last 10 seasons)

mike cameron (will miss first 25 games -- opening up cheap steals for his replacement tony gwynn, jr -- but when he gets back he's on a great team, has hit 20 HRS in 3 of past 4 seasons including in hitter-unfriendly SD...very late cheap OF)

el duque (numbers last year were surprisingly good -- 1.17 WHIP, 3.72 ERA, almost 8 K/9 IP)

mark reynolds (3B, ARI...K's a lot, but good power, solid backup 3B with starter potential if you trade starting 3B late for something else)

kevin kouzmanoff (3B, SD...if he didn't play in petco he'd be a stud, even as is he'll keep getting better)

pedro feliz (has starting gig in great hitters park, PHI, vs. his old park in SF..always had good power, 20 HR and 80 RBI each of last 4 seasons)

phil hughes (even with the yankee/east coast media love, can't deny his talent, great team, due for a bust out)

troy percival (very cheap source of saves, improving d'rays team, has job secured)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Grienke, McGowan and Marcum

all had much better 2nd halves than overall numbers lead you to believe;

gutherie - having a good spring as well....

 
Last edited by a moderator:
not sure if he's been mentioned yet, but jeff francoeur is a bit off the radar compared to this time last year. i think he gets back up to that 25-30 HR range with nice RBI, runs.

also, a deeeeep 3B option, esp. in NL-only leagues, is ty wigginton. great HOU lineup, good park for him, full-time gig...his power numbers and RBI should be a bit better this year and he qualifies at multiple positions.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Taking a chance on Jeremy Bonderman in the middle rounds seems like a good idea. I don't have him on either of my teams but I wouldn't mind getting him. Low risk, high reward.

 
tick dog said:
list below is either more established players who are either going lower than i personally think they should, and therefore represent good value, or players due for breakout/sleeper campaigns:

vernon wells (reportedly over his shoulder injuries)

Swisher (will tear up us cellular this year, relatively cheap source of 35 HR)...edit to add fantasy baseball cafe's outlook on swisher: Nick Swisher- White Sox Not so far down on draft boards this year we find Nick Swisher, who was traded in the off-season to the White Sox. You couldn’t ask for a much better change of scenery for Swisher, who saw his home run total plummet from 35 in 2006, to 22 in 2007. Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum is notoriously a pitcher’s park which, according to ESPN.com, caused a 32% loss in home runs from the league average while U.S. Cellular field gave a 22% boost. Applying these numbers to Swisher, his 22 HR season in Oakland turns into a 34 HR season in Chicago. Its not quite as easy as just saying that he would have hit 12 more home runs in 2007 had he been with Chicago, but needless to say, the move should provide a solid boost to Swisher’s power numbers. Swisher’s loss of power last year is somewhat difficult to explain, his FB% remained high, but not nearly as many left the park and his HR/FB sustained a large drop. This is partially due to the league-wide power outage last year, but I feel it can be somewhat attributed to a lack of protection in Oakland’s injury plagued lineup. Hitting behind Orlando Cabrera and in front of Thome and Konerko puts him in one of the best situations he’s ever hit in, and given the added protection I expect his HR/FB to bounce back closer to his 2006 level. Given the new stadium and lineup, I expect big things from Swisher this year along the lines of .265-100-35-100 with 40 HR upside.

Snell

Matt cain (w's aren't good, might get double digits if he's lucky on that bad SF team, but a stud in virtually every other P cat)

Ryan zZmmerman (power is legit, nats move to HR friendly new field)

Kazmir/Shields/even Garza (D’Rays are MUCH improved, Kaz gets tons of K’s...with injury risk...Shields might be a co-#1 to Kaz...and Garze will ikmprove from last year, though prob another year away from being a stud)

Howie Kendrick (will compete for AL batting title, score nice runs in that tough Angels lineup)

Brett Myers (flip-flopping between pen and starter last year hurt, but he’ll give you innings, K’s and wins)

Alex Gordon (too much “the next George Brett” pressure last year, is the real deal, a solid 3B starter you can get late)

Juan Pierre (people write him off every year, and then he steals 50 bags, hits for average, and helps in most cats other than HR)

Randy Winn (bear with me here...every year this guy puts up totally unnoticed but pretty solid #s across the board: last year 178 hits, 15 SB, 14 HRs, .300 avg...would you rather have him in the last round or abreu’s very similar numbers in the 5th?)

Borowski (ERA is scary, but still the closer on a very good to great team)

Manny Ramirez (45h/5th rounder now thanks to one non-mannny-like year, in great shape, still a great lineup, will hit like a 3rd rounder)

Michael Bourn/Jerry Owens/Rajai Davis/Willy Taveras (great sources of late cheap speed...and taveras will give you AVG)

Manny Corpas (great team, set closer w/ new contract)

George Sherill (think bj ryan when he first became a closer...LHP who gets righties out, has all but won the closer job in BAL)

yunel escobar (ATL SS/2B/3B..hit .326 in 94 games last year,...good fielder, will bat 1 or 2 at top of good lineup)

josh fields (assuming he beats out stiff joe crede, fieldd has legit 30-35 HR power)

rickie weeks (another guy people mightve forgotten about...locked into the 2B job in MIL)

miguel tejada (perfect swing for minute maid park, won't be suspended, great lineup around him, healthy, all signs point to a comeback year)

luke scott (had to fight for PT in HOU< has a full-time gig in BAL now, good power)

bartolo colon (seriously....iif he stays healthy he's in the perfect situation, on a potent team that can win him those 8-6 games)

franklin guittierez (OF CLE, hit a low .266 but with 13 HRS in 217 ABs or something, has good speed, could be a 20-20 guy)

chipper jones (going later than adrian beltre in some leagues, crazy for a guy who rocked in OPS, SLG last year, and has hit 25 HRs or more 9 of last 10 seasons)

mike cameron (will miss first 25 games -- opening up cheap steals for his replacement tony gwynn, jr -- but when he gets back he's on a great team, has hit 20 HRS in 3 of past 4 seasons including in hitter-unfriendly SD...very late cheap OF)

el duque (numbers last year were surprisingly good -- 1.17 WHIP, 3.72 ERA, almost 8 K/9 IP)

mark reynolds (3B, ARI...K's a lot, but good power, solid backup 3B with starter potential if you trade starting 3B late for something else)

kevin kouzmanoff (3B, SD...if he didn't play in petco he'd be a stud, even as is he'll keep getting better)

pedro feliz (has starting gig in great hitters park, PHI, vs. his old park in SF..always had good power, 20 HR and 80 RBI each of last 4 seasons)

phil hughes (even with the yankee/east coast media love, can't deny his talent, great team, due for a bust out)

troy percival (very cheap source of saves, improving d'rays team, has job secured)
Click to expand...
I sure hope you are right considering 5 or 6 of the guys you listed are on my roster.Some other guys I think could provide value for nest to nothing -

Jason Kubel MIN (although I suppose he has some risk with the new OF in MIN)

Andrew Miller FLA (bad team, but talent is there and it is a pitchers park)

John Danks CHW (showed some signs of life last year - now another year more mature)

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
Emmanuel Clase suspended for gambling
Replies
4
Views
218
Leroy Hoard
Leroy Hoard
M
3 Managers Needed for 10 Team Keeper League - Free
Replies
4
Views
303
mschaef
M
TripItUp
My 12 Team H2H Points League Draft w/Commentary
Replies
6
Views
737
Gally
G

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top