11. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida - Hernandez is a bit of tough nut to crack because he’s somewhat in the mold of receiving only TEs from last year’s class who have disappointed so far like Jared Cook, Chase Coffman, and Travis Beckum. On the other hand, Hernandez is a better natural receiver than any of those guys. His hands are sure, his open field running and change of direction are outstanding for a TE, he can sky to get the high ball, and he’s tough, strong, and balanced when it comes time to take a hit. He could be an 80+ catch player in the right system, an afterthought in the wrong one. For now, we’ll err on the side of ranking him where he’d be if he lands somewhere like New England or New Orleans.
NFL Comparison: Chris Cooley
12. Andre Roberts, WR, The Citadel - This year’s top small school WR places high in the pre-draft 100, which may a reflection on the quality of the top IDP and second-tier offensive prospects as much as its an indication of Roberts talent. He has soft hands and impeccable ball tracking and body control when making a play on the ball in the air, but he shines even more after the catch. Roberts runs with great quickness and explosion with his short stride and compact build, and he stays low to the ground instinctively like a running back. Great field vision developed as a punt returner just finishes the package of this player who should become a very strong #2 receiver.
NFL Comparison: DeSean Jackson minus elite speed
13. Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas - Shipley is obviously one of my favorite players in this draft. He’ll be drafted as a role player, but his team will soon see that they have a future starter on their hands. In a word, his game is natural. He doesn’t have elite size, quicks, or explosion, but he gets more out of what he has than most NFL receivers get out of their gifts. His decent speed is made better by moves that can freeze would-be tacklers (those moves also do that in his routes), and an instinctive ability to quickly turn upfield and convert to run after catch mode. He also plays with a ton of desire and a knack for coming through in big moments. His balance, footwork, and body control finish off a smooth style of play that should translate well.
NFL Comparison: Austin Collie if he could do something after the catch
14. Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU - LaFell has fewer holes in his game than the second tier WRs above him on this list, but his ceiling is also much lower. He’s a rugged possession receiver who will be a tough customer after the catch, with surprising fluid athleticism and ability to set up DBs with advanced route running technique. LaFell sees the field well and he has dependable hands, a nice combination for a future third-down target.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery minus some quicks and speed
15. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech - Ive already taken some flak for not having Thomas in my top 10, so I’m sure seeing names Roberts and Shipley ahead of Thomas will likely rankle his backers even more. I’ll admit that Thomas has great straight line speed for a large man, but otherwise, I’m not seeing much to hang my hat on. He can hang in the air, but he looks heavy and not at all explosive as a leaper, and Thomas doesn’t seem to snag the ball as much as he lets it land in his hands like an outfielder. He’s not that fluid or sudden, and I’m not sure that he’ll create much separation on short and intermediate routes that require those qualities. He is aggressive after the catch with a nice stiff arm, but right now Thomas looks like a one-dimensional player to me. He might be a first round pick because of the NFL’s love affair with size/speed receivers, but I won’t spend a first-round pick in rookie drafts on Thomas.
NFL Comparison: Bigger, but less agile Robert Meachem
16. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame - Tate is another guy who seems to have some of the pieces of a starting WR’s game, but he is missing enough to drop him out of the top 12 on this list. He’s fast, but not a true burner, he’s good in the air, but not big enough to win jump ball battles, he can catch tough passes, but lets easy ones get to his body. Tate is very sudden on the move and the strongest part of his game is his ability to make hay after the catch, but he doesn’t look like a natural receiver to me, and I think he’ll struggle to be consistent enough to produce on a week-in, week-out basis.
NFL Comparison: slightly less athletic Devery Henderson
17. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - McClain may land in the draft’s top 20 overall picks, but he doesn’t have the range or playmaking ability of an elite IDP LB. He is a bit lumbering in the open field, and while he has good instincts, McClain is not a seek and destroy LB like Curtis Lofton, who teams had some similar speed concerns about when he was drafted two years ago. McClain will fit well inside in a 3-4, where his lack of pursuit speed can be masked and he can play downhill, but his upside in IDP leagues is capped enough to make him a less attractive option than the second tier WRs.
NFL Comparison: Andra Davis with top notch instincts and intangibles
18. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona - It’s hard to project Gronkowski too high on this list because back injuries that require surgery and sink a season are scary, but Gronk will be a good one and reward the NFL team and fantasy owners that take a chance on him as long as the back is sound. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has sticky hands and a mean streak as a blocker and runner after the catch. He also runs good routes and understands how to find soft spots in a zone. Along with Gresham and Hernandez, Gronkowski has a chance to become a premier fantasy tight end.
NFL Comparison: Zach Miller
19. Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss - Five or ten years ago, McCluster would have been a lot lower on this list, but the NFL has evolved to embrace a player of his talents. McCluster will be a lethal wildcat QB, a cat-quick slot receiver, and a running back that is good for 5-10 change of pace touches in space a game. He has the best phone-booth quicks of any player in this class and McCluster just knows what to do when the ball is in his hands. He is small, but he runs with courage, and McCluster should become a fan favorite, if not fantasy favorite at the next level.
NFL Comparison: sleeker, smaller Josh Cribbs
20. Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati - Gilyard is going to be an excellent slot receiver, with good speed and moves after the catch and good enough hands and toughness to work the middle of the field, but I don’t see the game in the air, physical presence against press coverage, or deep speed that Gilyard would need to be a starting WR. He’ll be an excellent pick in return yardage leagues, and he’s a dynamic enough talent to gamble on in the late 2nd of rookie drafts, but his upside is limited.
NFL Comparison: Patrick Crayton with more juice in his legs