2010 FBG Post Season Contest (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

I'm sure there will be some interesting discussions about stategy in this contest. I subtitled the thread the way I did because I'd rather not wade thru post after post of rosters with no thoughts behind the selections. I'm interested in the why. I'm sure that most will want to wait until after the entry deadline passes to post their teams and thoughts.

Mods: I realize there will be overlap with the other thread. Hopefully you will wait to merge until some focused strategy discussion has occured.

Good luck all.

Contest Quierier Link

This is the 2010 Thread

 

[David Yudkin]

The deadline isn't until gametime tomorrow . . . do we want to spill the beans early?

 

[BassNBrew]

The deadline isn't until gametime tomorrow . . . do we want to spill the beans early?

Probably not...unfortunately I will be working at that time and not able to start a thread. I was hoping to catch the night game and read some good strategy discussion without having to sort thru 5 pages of regurgitated rosters. Several of us have anticipated some lively discussions. I'm sure some broke this down to estimated cut levels and built their team around projections to make that cut. Myabe you or someone else can bump this right at the cutoff time.

 

[tommyGunZ]

thx for the reminder bNb, almost forgot to enter my team.

 

[BoomBoom]

.

 

[PantherPower]

start all your College of Charleston graduates.

 

[Doug Drinen]

.

 

[smackdaddies]

I quit redoing my team, unless some injury pops in the next hour or so.

All previous teams basically were just different combo's of the same strat - this am I completely switched my strategy and ended up with a very different set of players.

It was making my brain hurt.

 

[zed2283]

Here's my team. Going QB/RB heavy... and hoping the Packers score big this week.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30

QB - Drew Brees - NO - $29

QB - Peyton Manning - IND - $29

QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28

QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25

RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25

RB - Joseph Addai - IND - $19

RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17

RB - Darren Sproles - SD - $13

RB - Mike Bell - NO - $10

WR - James Jones - GB - $8

WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5

PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $11

 

[gpalmer]

Here's my team. Going QB/RB heavy... and hoping the Packers score big this week. QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30QB - Drew Brees - NO - $29QB - Peyton Manning - IND - $29QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25RB - Joseph Addai - IND - $19RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17RB - Darren Sproles - SD - $13RB - Mike Bell - NO - $10WR - James Jones - GB - $8WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $11

0% chance of making it past week one

 

[Rovers]

I tried to keep some balance to hopefully get thru week 1... then I decided I'd have to try to predict the two Supe teams. I figured it's better to lose earlier than to have no shot if I make it to the last week. Basically, attempting to sandbag as much as possible but still manging to make the weekly cut down, but have a roster that has a remote chance of winning the whole thing in the Super Bowl. Pretty cool contest. With FF over for me, it was fun to have an encore even if any chance of winning anything is extrememly remote.

 

[zed2283]

Here's my team. Going QB/RB heavy... and hoping the Packers score big this week. QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30QB - Drew Brees - NO - $29QB - Peyton Manning - IND - $29QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25RB - Joseph Addai - IND - $19RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17RB - Darren Sproles - SD - $13RB - Mike Bell - NO - $10WR - James Jones - GB - $8WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $11

0% chance of making it past week one

Ok, changed it up:QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30QB - Peyton Manning - IND - $29QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28QB - Tony Romo - DAL - $26QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25RB - Joseph Addai - IND - $19RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17RB - Marion Barber - DAL - $14RB - Darren Sproles - SD - $13WR - James Jones - GB - $8WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $11

 

[adrenaline]

Ok, changed it up:QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30QB - Peyton Manning - IND - $29QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28QB - Tony Romo - DAL - $26QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25RB - Joseph Addai - IND - $19RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17RB - Marion Barber - DAL - $14RB - Darren Sproles - SD - $13WR - James Jones - GB - $8WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5PK - Mason Crosby - GB - $11

Wow someone with less players than me. My strategy was to pick the Superbowl teams & have just enough other players to make it past this weekend.RodgersRiversRomoGrantTomlinsonMcClainAustinVJacksonEdelmanGatesWittenKaedingChargersDallas

 

[Disc Shark]

My team:

QB - Drew Brees - 29

QB - Philip Rivers - 28

QB - Kurt Warner - 21

RB - Ryan Grant - 17

RB - Thomas Jones - 14

RB - Darren Sproles - 13

RB - Felix Jones - 8

RB - Willis McGahee - 7

RB - Lynell Hamilton - 2

WR - Reggie Wayne - 23

WR - Sidney Rice - 19

WR - Greg Jennings - 16

WR - Julian Edelman - 11

WR - Jason Avant - 8

TE - David Thomas - 7

PK - Garrett Hartley - 11

PK - Neil Rackers - 8

TD - Dallas Cowboys - 8

 

[ScottyFargo]

If things goes according to how I judged/guessed/pressumed/hope:

WC 9

DIV 15

CON 8

SB 9

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30

QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25

RB - Ray Rice - BAL - $16

RB - Thomas Jones - NYJ - $14

RB - Felix Jones - DAL - $8

WR - Reggie Wayne - IND - $23

WR - Sidney Rice - MIN - $19

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN - $16

WR - Pierre Garcon - IND - $13

WR - Legedu Naanee - SD - $5

WR - Greg Lewis - MIN - $2

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN - $15

TE - Jim Kleinsasser - MIN - $2

TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI - $11

TD - Green Bay Packers - GB - $10

TD - San Diego Chargers - SD - $10

TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN - $9

TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL - $8

TD - New York Jets - NYJ - $7

TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL - $7

First I mapped out how I believed the playoffs would run. I picked 2 from each team I believed would win in WC weekend, giving the most weight to teams that I believed go the furthest in the contest (GB 3 games, Min 3 Games, Indy 3 games.) I initially wasn't sure if I was going to go after D/ST but I felt they were the best value at cost to pair with the WC teams so I matched up a heavy with a team def.

I am hoping for a Min / Indy superbowl, but I changed my mind a lot between Indy and SD up until today. Similarly I wasn't certain that NYJ would beat Cincy or Bal over Patriots, so I am probably hoping a bit too much for two upsets this week. I have no NO players. I am imagining a Min / GB NFC Championship, so if that happens I'll get 3 games each out of Favre / Rice and Rodgers / GB D before picking up a lot of the Vikings passing game and Indianapolis' WRs for the Superbowl.

This was very difficult to figure out. At one point I had a 60 person entry, as I tried to load up on all the cheapest players for the SB but I left myself very little chance of passing the WC or Div cut offs.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Closed with 8901 entries (including staff).

Ownership stats, simulations, etc. coming soon...

 

[EBF]

Didn't put a ton of thought into this. There will be so many entrants that nothing short of a miracle will net you a high a finish. You could put together a great team and still finish outside the money 99% of the time.

This contest isn't about building a well-balanced team. It's about picking one highly specific playoff scenario and building your team accordingly. The Super Bowl will determine who wins this, so I think you need to predict which two teams are going to be in the big game and build your team backwards from there. I think SD/MIN and IND/MIN are the two most likely scenarios. I decided to go with IND/MIN because the Colts have an easier first game than the Chargers.

From there I had to decide which players to pick from these teams. My first impulse was to pick the IND passing game and the MIN running game, but I ultimately settled on the MIN passing game and the IND running game. I liked the price of Addai/Favre/Shiancoe more than Peterson/Manning/Clark. I also liked Chester more than D. Brown as my RB2 and decided that having Rice/Harvin would give me an edge over Wayne/Collie/Garcon.

If things work out as planned, I'll field the following lineup in the Super Bowl:

QB - Brett Favre

RB - Joseph Addai

RB - Chester Taylor

WR - Sidney Rice

WR - Percy Harvin

WR - Austin Collie

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe

PK - Adam Vinatieri

DEF - Colts

I will have a good shot to win if:

1. The Vikings and Colts make the Super Bowl.

2. Favre goes off and Addai has a good game.

I cannot win with any other scenario.

I spent the rest of my cash trying to build decent depth for the first two games. I started by deciding which teams were going to win their first round games (I picked BAL, GB, DAL, and CIN). I then tried to pick 2-3 good values from each of those teams. These will be my week one starters:

QB - Joe Flacco

RB - Ray Rice

RB - Felix Jones

WR - Greg Jennings

WR - Donald Driver

WR - Roy Williams

WR - Andre Caldwell

TE - Todd Heap

PK - Shaun Suisham

DEF - Bengals

Ideally these guys will score enough to keep me alive for the first week and contribute in week two before being eliminated. You'll notice that I didn't pick any Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, or Eagles. I am hoping that all of those teams lose in the first round, although it's not necessary in order for me to win. I tried to limit the number of players from each team in order to decrease the possibility of losing a good score due to the "2 players per team" rule, but a certain amount of overlap was inevitable.

In all likelihood, one of my two Super Bowl picks will lose and destroy my chance of winning. However, if both teams somehow manage to make it to the big game, I'll have a realistic chance of emerging victorious.

 

[David Yudkin]

Swing for the fences, I say. Play to WIN with a scenario that if it plays out you will have an excellent chance to win if your projected outcomes occur. In such a strategy, many players cannot be picked because they will serve to go AGAINST your best outcome (the correct teams in the SB). No matter how you slice it, if you guess wrong, you aren’t winning anyway.

I decided who I thought would go to the Super Bowl. In my case, I felt SD and MIN had the best chance of playing. However, after countless attempts to put together a team that could win, I found that it was nearly impossible to do so with two teams that had byes because there was a high risk of not being in the top 4,000 entries if there were 10,000 entries in Week One. Ultimately, I had to scrub going with a SD/MIN strategy.

I initially wanted to spend $150 on the two teams I felt were going to the big dance and $100 on players from WEEK ONE of the playoffs. However, loading up on two SB teams from bye teams posed problems in that you would only be allowed to score two players from each team for the two weeks prior to the SB. In my case, that would mean only a few players from other teams and scoring from 4 players (in my case from SD and MIN). IMO, that made it far too risky to advance the first 3 weeks to even get to the SB week, as I did not plan on having many players from other teams.

Instead, the best chance to win (in my humble opinion) was to go all in on a team playing the first week and one team not playing the first week. So I opted for the Packers and Chargers instead of my SD/MIN prediction, as both have high scoring guys that have been fairly consistent. I spent $150 on SD and GB players and $100 on “others.” HOWEVER, in taking GB players, that gets scoring for the first week as well (so the top two from a corps of five players). So as I see it, I spent $150 on two SB teams but almost $150 on players playing in Week 1 as well when you consider GB players count in both columns.

I eliminated players I thought were on teams that would only be playing one game. For me, that was BAL, PHI, CIN, ARI, and IND. (You can fault me for the teams that I picked to lose, but probably not the strategy.) I also eliminated bye week teams that might play two games because (in theory) the teams I had going to the SB would cover scoring for the third week of the contest by advancing, so there was no benefit in having a player getting a zero Week One but scoring in two other weeks (the zero being the big concern).

In selecting the remaining playing from the non-SB teams, I figured that the margin for error was slim, so as mentioned earlier I could not risk taking players that I felt were going to be one and done. I needed them to score in at least one more week to still make the cut (remember, you can still only score two players from the same team until the SB).

Similarly, with only two players allowed to score from the same team, there was no point in taking more than two players from the same team as one was guaranteed not to score. In my case, that left me with two players to select from NE, DAL, and NYJ as those were the only teams I saw playing more than one game AND playing in Week One.

The concept of which players were cheaper or better value never really entered into it for me. Either they would keep playing and advance or they wouldn’t (and you’d be doomed anyway), so their cost really didn’t matter. The number of games players were slated to play was far more important than their costs were.

IMO, if you divide you get conquered, so taking players from a potpourri of teams will get you to advance in the early rounds but stands no chance of actually winning. If you took two players from 12 teams, you would only have 4 cheap players still alive in the final week of the contest.

GB PLAYERS SELECTED:

Rodgers, Grant, Jennings, Driver, Finley

SD PLAYERS SELECTED

Rivers, Jackson, Gates

DAL PLAYERS SELECTED

Barber, Austin

NYJ PLAYERS SELECTED

TJones, NYJ Def/ST

NE PLAYERS SELECTED

Edelman, Gostkowski

As far as taking the leftovers, I liked Barber, Austin, and Jones to do well consistently but that left me with little money to spend to flesh out a roster. The Jets defense seemed like a decent price. I took Edelman because he seemed like he would earn back more than his price. As for Gostkowski, I think he isn’t worth the 13 bucks to roster him but I think he has the best chance to come close to scoring at least a moderate amount of points in two games. I would rather have a guy that might get 8 or 9 points twice than a guy that might get 12 and 3, at least in this instance.

In my case, I went “all in” with SD and GB. I couldn’t see spending a lot of cash on SD running backs, as they many times haven’t done much this year. If both teams do make the SB, I have 8 studs in the final game. I also think by covering the risk in the earlier rounds, I have a decent shot of making the final week if things play out close to the way I think they will. Like with all teams in this contest, guess the wrong two teams and your DOA regardless.

I’ll have to look at the overall composition of rosters later, but I think too many people will load up on two teams that they won’t make the cut each week to get there. Certainly those loading up on bye week teams could be done right out of the gate. I suppose the interesting part will be if others see a SD/GB Super Bowl how they constructed their teams differently and if they can make it all the way to the last week.

I think this strategy is very sound . . . I’m just not all that confident that I picked the right two teams.

 

[menobrown]

So of course the only way to win this is to have the best team in the SB so my main strategy was to pick the SB matchup and try to put as many players as possible on that team and hope you don't get bounced early. I decided to go with a Cowboys vs Colts matchup and loaded up on those players. I also decided to try and pick another wild card team other than Dallas which I thought had a good chance to advance and had players at good bargains and grab 2-3 players from that group instead of spreading the players around. I chose Baltimore and Arizona as those teams with Arizona getting picked not because I see them winning but I liked the value for some of their players. In general I did not pick players based on value as much as team. So while I felt Edelman for $11 was one of the best values I don't have him because I decided to put my eggs in the Baltimore basket. So for me I believe the key is not so much how my players do but how well Dallas, Indy, Arizona and Baltimore performs so with 3 of those 4 teams playing this week even if I were to advance this week my chances of winning the contest could be killed quickly.

So here is my team:

QB- Peyton Manning

QB- Tony Romo

QB- Joe Flacco

RB- Joseph Addai

RB- Marion Barber

RB- Chris Wells

RB- Felix Jones

WR- Miles Austin

WR- Pierre Garcon

WR- Miles Austin

WR- Steve Breaston

WR- Early Doucett

TE- Dallas Clark

TE- Jason Whitten

TE- David Thomas

K- Suisman

D- Colts

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Closed with 8901 entries (including staff). Ownership stats, simulations, etc. coming soon...

 

[EBF]

Hmm...just realized I am definitely taking a 0 in week one because of Flacco/Rice/Heap.

Oh well.

 

[PantherPower]

when will we have a link to see our teams? I changed my so many times, I can't remember who all I took

 

[gianmarco]

So my strategy, as others have stated, was to pick the 2 teams in the Super Bowl and work from there. Unfortunately, going with the favorites from the bye week teams makes this almost impossible to guess. So, I went with two wildcard teams and hope that I hit at least one of them in the Super Bowl. I went for two teams that have reasonable costs for some of their players as well as a decent shot to actually make it. I decided on NE and Dallas. NE is obvious due to their fantasy stars and their experience. Dallas actually provided decent value and I like their potential road to the SB. The last thing I liked about both teams was that I didn't have to get a NE TE or RB in this scenario.

My next step was to ensure I make it through the 1st-2nd week. By the 3rd week, there are only 4 teams left. Since only 2 players can count max from those 4 teams, then it's very unlikely there will be many rosters that even have 2 players from all 4 teams. In other words, having selected the correct 2 Super Bowl teams (which is a prerequisite to win), then I'd have at least 4 players scoring and week 3 shouldn't be an issue.

So, how do I maximize getting through weeks 1 and 2. Well, I automatically will have 4 players scoring both weeks (2 from each of the Super Bowl teams provided I picked correctly). I decided to go for cheap kickers and defenses from the 1st round and went with the ones I thought would win. If I pick even 2 of those, I've now added 4 more players to add to my other 4. Finally, I rounded out my remaining money from some of the bye week teams to make sure I had players going in week 2. Since TE scoring is preferential, I went with 2 of those guys. Also, since I figured Minn might have the best shot of all teams in the NFC, I went with a couple of their players to fill in for that week 2 cutoff with the potential to contribute at the end if it's a Minn/NE SB.

I think week 2 is the biggest obstacle to win. Picking the 2 Super Bowl teams and having a good # of players from them is required to win. But, in doing so, you still need to get by week 2 which is the hardest cutoff.

Here's what I ended up with:

QB - Tom Brady - 29

QB - Tony Romo - 26

RB - Marion Barber - 14

WR - Randy Moss - 26

WR - Miles Austin - 22

WR - Julian Edelman - 11

WR - Legedu Naanee - 5

WR - Kevin Ogletree - 2

TE - Jason Witten - 19

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - 15

TE - Jeremy Shockey - 13

PK - Ryan Longwell - 12

PK - Jay Feely - 10

PK - Neil Rackers - 8

PK - Shaun Suisham - 6

TD - New England Patriots - 9

TD - Arizona Cardinals - 8

TD - Dallas Cowboys - 8

TD - New York Jets - 7

Assuming a NE/Dallas SB

Week 1 scoring--Best 2 of Romo/Barber/Austin/Ogletree/Witten/Dallas/Suisham, Best 2 of Brady/Moss/Edelman/NE, NYJ, Arizona, Rackers, Feely (6 guaranteed players scoring)

Week 2 scoring--Best 2 of Romo/Barber/Austin/Ogletree/Witten/Dallas/Suisham, Best 2 of Brady/Moss/Edelman/NE, Shockey, Shiancoe, Longwell, Naanee, and MAYBE NYJ, Arizona, Rackers, Feely (8-12 scorers)

Week 3 scoring--Best 2 of Romo/Barber/Austin/Ogletree/Witten/Dallas/Suisham, Best 2 of Brady/Moss/Edelman/NE

Week 4 scoring--Romo/Barber/Austin/Ogletree/Witten/Dallas/Suisham/Brady/Moss/Edelman/NE (Brady/Moss/Edelman/NE/Shiancoe/Longwell if it's a NE/Minn Super Bowl)

If it is indeed a NE/Dallas Super Bowl, I like my chances. I think the chances of those 2 teams making it are actually pretty slim compared to other scenarios, but I also think it's definitely possible and not likely to have been chosen by others.

 

[The Jerminator]

I worked from the beginning by picking my WC Weekend winners/losers and rostered 0 players from the four teams I expect to lose (BAL, ARI, CIN, PHI). Obviously if I am wrong in these picks my team will go nowhere.

Next I picked two players from each the four WC Round winners (three from GB - my NFC SB pick) and two players from each of the "bye" teams (four from INDY - my AFC SB pick) except NO, who I expect to lose in the second round (I chose 0 NO players).

I felt that the overall value was at RB and K in this contest and loaded up on them. I felt that D/ST and TE held very little value and chose none. My WRs are all second tier values and my QBs should be worth their price. I chose one $2 player to help in a tie-breaker.

I feel like I have a very good chance to make it a few rounds but will likely get bounced in the SB round (even if GB and INDY make it) due to someone else having more players than my 7.

My Team:

A Rodgers

P Manning

M Sanchez

A Peterson

J Addai

R Grant

L Tomlinson

T Jones

F Jones

P Garcon

J Edelman

M Floyd

H Baskett

S Gotkowski

R Longwell

M Crosby

S Suisham

17 players $250

Good Luck to All!!!

 

[joffer]

seems like GB and Dallas are going to be the popular WC picks to make it all the way, against either IND/SD

 

[Angry Beavers]

Closed with 8901 entries (including staff). Ownership stats, simulations, etc. coming soon...

Wow - over half get cut this weekend. Those teams loading up for the next couple of weeks and hoping to slide through this week may be in trouble.

 

[Das Boot]

I decided who I thought would go to the Super Bowl. In my case, I felt SD and MIN had the best chance of playing.

Those were my 2 choices as well after filling out the brackets.

However, after countless attempts to put together a team that could win, I found that it was nearly impossible to do so with two teams that had byes because there was a high risk of not being in the top 4,000 entries if there were 10,000 entries in Week One. Ultimately, I had to scrub going with a SD/MIN strategy.

Yep, it's an extremely tough predicted results list to use to fill out with players - very inconvenient, but I decided if that's what I think is my best prediction as to what will happen, that's how I have to structure my team.It sucked making sure I had enough players to have a decent shot of making it past week one... my biggest fear is that there will be lots of casual entries that choose QBs from one and done teams that put up big points in week 1 for their contest teams.After a lot of agonizing (but fun agonizing), and lots of tradeoffs, here's my final teameyton Manning $29 0.00 Hank Baskett $2 0.00 Malcom Floyd $10 0.00 Craig Davis $2 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Chris Baker $5 0.00 Todd Heap $10 0.00 Thomas Jones $14 0.00 Robert Meachem $14 0.00 Brett Favre $25 0.00 Adrian Peterson $25 0.00 Sidney Rice $19 0.00 Visanthe Shiancoe $15 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 Steve Breaston $11 0.00 Ryan Grant $17 0.00 Jermichael Finley $17 0.00 Brian Westbrook $10 0.00

 

[Angry Beavers]

My roster:

Philip Rivers $28

LaDainian Tomlinson $17

Vincent Jackson $21

Randy Moss $26

Ben Watson $11

Thomas Jones $14

Brett Favre $25

Adrian Peterson $25

Larry Fitzgerald $19

Aaron Rodgers $30

Ryan Grant $17

Greg Jennings $16

I took 3 Chargers and 3 Packers hoping they go to the Superbowl. I also took Moss and Watson figuring NE wins this weekend and will have to throw a ton to keep up with SD next weekend - particularly with no Welker; I think Farve and Peterson figuring that if GB does not go to the SB, MIN is the next likely team (in my mind) to go to the SB from the NFC. Besides if GB makes a deep run they will play that many more games thus maximizing those dollars. Fo course, if GB loses in round one, I am going to have big problems. Figuring that this weekend will be important, I took Fitzgerald even though I do not think Ariz will win and the same thing with T. Jones - although I give the NYJ a better chance of advancing than the Cardinals.

So if the NYJ, NE and GB win this weekend, and then we get GB v. MIN for one conf. final and SD in the other conf. final and get SD in the Superbowl, I think I can make some noise. I did not pick a lot of players, but went for the studs hoping they produce as such in crunch time rather than taking the shotgun approach of lower valued players and hoping to get lucky somewhere.

 

[BassNBrew]

Damn - Can't see my team. Working from memory.

Two Super Bowl Teams

SD - River, VJax, Gates, Keading

Dal - Romo, Jones, Austin, Sushim

I saw the value at QB and K for $ to projected points. Scoring is heavily weighted to FGs and QBs. Hence

Warner

Flacco

Palmer

Sanchez

Rodgers

Hopefully that will get me past week one and my SD can help with the leftover QBs. I'll have 6 QBs posting a score this week.

Brad Smith and Detrius Williams and Cundiff were low cost players that should put up a point or two this week. I figured on 8000+ entries and a steep cut off the week. Hopefully those that loaded up on wk 2 players get shredded this week and I can limp along in wks 2 and 3.

 

[joffer]

Betting on a Dallas / Indianapolis Superbowl, with contributions from Green Bay, Todd Heap, Edelman, and Larry Fitzgerald during WC weekend. No kickers, and the Dallas D.

Peyton Manning $29

Aaron Rodgers $30

Tony Romo $26

Joseph Addai $19

Felix Jones $8

Fred Taylor $11

Chad Simpson $2

Larry Fitzgerald $19

Pierre Garcon $13

Julian Edelman $11

Kevin Ogletree $2

Dallas Clark $26

Todd Heap $10

Jason Witten $19

Jermichael Finley $17

Dallas Cowboys $8

 

[BassNBrew]

The other reason I went 7 QBs is that it's a safe route to get numbers this week. For what I could spend on Edelman and Collie, I can get a QB that has less of a chance of busting out. Even if one or two QBs bust, I doubt 6 will.

 

[Doug Drinen]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

 

[PantherPower]

Can't see my team, and I changed it a million times, but I THINK i went this route, counting on the Colts to be in the SB, against the Packers or Vikings. I was worried about getting past week 1, so I might have taken too many players that I don't think will be in the final four.

Rodgers

Manning

Farve

Addai

Grant

McGahee

Wayne

Rice

Meachem

Breaston

Edelman

Clark

Witten

 

[The Kerminator]

Like most others I picked the two teams I think will make it to the Super Bowl and loaded up on those players, particularly the studs. I went with a SD/MIN matchup. I ended up with nine players from these two teams at a cost of $179. I then needed to fill in the rest of my team to survive weeks 1 through 3. And that meant I needed to spend the rest of my salary on players that would play week 1, so I took a chance and skipped any players from NO or IND. I picked one player each from the BAL/NE game, ensuring I have a player from that matchup playing in week 2. Likewise for the other week 1 games. I'll need an upset of NO and/or IND in week 2 to advance my players from the wildcard week and at least 2 each from MIN and SD to score BIG in week 3 to survive. I figured to win this you have to score big in the SB and just hope to survive weeks 1-3.

QB - Philip Rivers - SD - $28

QB - Brett Favre - MIN - $25

RB - Adrian Peterson - MIN - $25

RB - LaDamianian Tomlinson - SD - $17

RB - Ray Rice - BAL - $16

RB - Brian Westbrook - PHI - $10

RB - Chester Taylor - MIN - $8

RB - Felix Jones - DAL - $8

RB - Larry Johnson - CIN - $5

RB - John Kuhn - GB - $2

WR - Vincent Jackson - SD - $21

WR - Sidney Rice - MIN - $19

WR - Greg Jennings - GB - $16

WR - Steve Breaston - ARI - $11

WR - Julian Edelman - NE - $11

WR - Brad Smith - NYJ - $2

WR - Greg Lewis - MIN - $2

TE - Antonio Gates - SD - $24

Ideally I want BAL, PHI, GB, and CIN to win week 1 giving me the SD & MIN players and Rice, Westbrook, Jennings, Johnson and Kuhn in week 2. That'll give me 9 scoring players in week 2.

I'll need NO or IND to lose in week 2 and to advance my SD & MIN players and preferrably GB and BAL wins giving me SD, MIN and Jennings and Rice in week 3. With only six players scoring in week 3 I'll need some big scores from my two SD and two MIN players.

If I'm fortunate to survive weeks 1-3 I like my studs from SD and MIN.

Edited to add that the simulator gives me a 6% chance of surviving week 1.

 

[smackdaddies]

I may make it to the finals, but if i do I will likely be toast

Pack v. Ind SB

Cowboys/Patsies runners up

So.... with a ppr/bonus to the TE scoring, and assuming that if i went too heavy on my SB players i would not make the SB, I went

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Dallas Clark $26 0.00

Tom Brady $29 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Todd Heap $10 0.00

Visanthe Shiancoe $15 0.00

Jim Kleinsasser $2 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Jason Witten $19 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

Brent Celek $17 0.00

I considered Ryan Grant, but....

 

[FUBAR]

Larry Johnson $5 0.00

Laveranues Coles $9 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Tom Brady $29 0.00

Sammy Morris $8 0.00

Randy Moss $26 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

LeRon McClain $3 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Michael Vick $8 0.00

Jeremy Maclin $11 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

James Jones $8 0.00

Pierre Garcon $13 0.00

LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00

Darren Sproles $13 0.00

Legedu Naanee $5 0.00

Reggie Bush $13 0.00

Jeremy Shockey $13 0.00

Sidney Rice $19 0.00

Honestly, I screwed up and should have taken more Packers and Saints, less Chargers or other scrubs from week 1. Problem was when I was putting it together I hedged between the teams I see making it - Patriots, Chargers, Packers and Saints, and failed to focus on just making it through week 1 and 2, winning it in the SB. I figure I'll make it to the SB as long as the Pats don't lose early, and if they do make the SB, most people won't have picked them and I'll just have to hope Brady, Moss and Edelman put a lot of points on the board.

 

[smackdaddies]

you da man Doug

I am amazed at the number of people who didnt read the rules

 

[rzrback77]

Like several, I also decided to go with a heavy SB roster of players. Mine will definitely be out of the ordinary though as I opted to go for two WC teams in the Super Bowl.

I also decided to go long shot on those selections as well. I went heavy on Baltimore and Arizona. Arizona seems to me to be the far and away least respected team, yet they have a solid offense and defense and they have been there before. I can definitely see them advancing. My AFC pick was more determined by the roster charges and anticipated scoring. I think that the AFC is wide open and Baltimore seemed like the team with the lowest costing roster to stack up with so I hope they will also advance. Otherwise, grabbed what I thought were best scoring options on teams that I hoped to progress until they met my Ravens and Cards.

All my roster is playing today and all but two can advance to the next round. Of course, the long shot aspect having heavy Arizona and Baltimore will make or break this entry.

Good Luck Everyone!

Baltimore

Joe Flacco $14

Ray Rice $16

Willis McGahee $7

Derrick Mason $12

Mark Clayton $6

Todd Heap $10

Billy Cundiff $6

Baltimore Ravens $7

Arizona

Kurt Warner $21

Tim Hightower $13

Chris Wells $10

Larry Fitzgerald $19

Anquan Boldin $16

Steve Breaston $11

Neil Rackers $8

Arizona Cardinals $8

New York Jets

Thomas Jones $14

Dustin Keller $9

Dallas

Marion Barber $14

Felix Jones $8

Philadelphia

Brian Westbrook $10

Jeremy Maclin $11

 

[BassNBrew]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

Oh no.#742 on the week with a 99.4 survival chance. Looks like I took to many week one palyers.

Of course maybe I took the superior values.

 

[Couch Potato]

First of all, I'm a realist. I'm not going to win this contest. All the planning and strategy in the world won't overcome the luck of the right unique players going off, and some FBG among the 8901 will have some bit player like Mike Tolbert or Austin Collie who will unexpectedly rack up points like nobody's business making him the difference maker.

So, my strategy was to stay alive and have fun and see if I can make the final 1,000. If I guessed right and can have 2 players in there from each Super Bowl team, so much the better. Trying to guess exactly right and picking max players from my predicted Super Bowl teams, then getting bounced in week 1, just didn't seem all that appealing to me.

So, here's how I went. No team with more than 2 players. 5 teams with 2 players, 5 teams with 1 player, 2 teams with no players. Total 15 players. 249 or 250 bucks, I forget which.

AFC, I see it as the Colts and then everybody else, and I only took 6 players from the conference. I went with Manning and Clark as my best scoring options from IND. I did take 2 Jets because I think they get by the Bengals and went with PK Feely and RB Greene (cheap). Bengals, I took nobody. Saw little value against the Jets D, and I think they are one and done. I like BAL over NE, think their D will slow down the Pats, and didn't like the cost of Brady and Moss under these circumstances. No one I really like on NE, so I took PK Gostkowski. Again, cheap. BAL, I just went with Ray Rice. Chargers, well, I just didn't see a great fit other than Rivers, and I think this is the Colts year so I didn't spend on him. The rest of SD's guys were just too expensive for the value I see. If they aren't beaten in their first game, I at least see it as tough fought and relatively low scoring.

NFC I went with 9 players. Conference is more up in the air. I think Saints peaked early and could be one and done. I did go with Colston here though. I like MIN to get to the Super Bowl, and I took Favre and Peterson. I like Philly to win two games, maybe even get to the Super Bowl, so I took both McNabb and Westbrook (Westy is cheap, may benefit from the rest he's had, and get on a nice roll). Hedging my PHI bet a little, I took Dallas PK Suisham. I see them imploding as usual though, and the win over Philly last week will serve to make them complacent and they'll come in flat. Big mistake. I like the Packers to get by Zona and maybe go further, so I also took 2 Packers. Already rostering 3 QBs, i couldn't afford Rodgers and went with Jennings and Finley. Hedging a bit, I added Zona PK Rackers.

Remember, I'm just trying to make it through multiple weeks here, not swing for the fences. To each his own.

 

[BassNBrew]

351 teams only spent less than $50 for week one players. Hasta la vista.

 

[dal_boys_phan]

Wasn't sure how to go with this one - great contest DD.

Here is my entry...

QB - Aaron Rodgers - GB - $30

QB - Tony Romo - DAL - $26

RB - Ryan Grant - GB - $17

RB - Thomas Jones - NYJ - $14

RB - Donald Brown - IND - $9

RB - Felix Jones - DAL - $8

WR - Miles Austin - DAL - $22

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI - $19

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN - $16

WR - Greg Jennings - GB - $16

WR - Brad Smith - NYJ - $2

TE - Dallas Clark - IND - $26

TE - Jason Witten - DAL - $19

TE - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN - $15

TE - Ben Watson - NE - $11

*Total value*: 250

I felt that the NFC teams playing this weekend had a better shot of getting to the big game rather than their AFC counterparts, so I tried to load up on DAL and GB players. Then, I sprinkled in players on teams from this weekend that I felt could help me get through this week or help in the following week. Fitz was a hedge against the GB game tomorrow. If the NFC Championship is GB at DAL and IND makes the AFC Championship, then I think that I have a chance to get into the finals.

Since it was two max players per team without regard for position, I felt that K and DT were the places to drop in order to field the most players from DAL/GB. Also, with TE's getting 1.5 pts per reception and teams facing pretty good defenses in the tournament, I felt that was where the value could come out as QB's are forced to dumpoffs to the TE.

Problem I ran into during my roster construc was trying to load up on IND/SD - doing so, IMO, killed any chance of getting past this week. My main weak point is if NO isn't one-and-done, this roster will be in serious trouble.

#644 on the sim - I'll take that.

 

[John Zaleski]

Went with my two SB teams - SD/DALL

Then took two players from the teams I think are going to win this weekend to get past Week 1 and 2. Of course, if they don't win, I'm out... But I like my chances If there is a SD/DALL SB

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Malcom Floyd $10 0.00

San Diego Chargers $10 0.00

Ray Rice $16 0.00

Derrick Mason $12 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Jerricho Cotchery $11 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Marion Barber $14 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00

Ryan Grant $17 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

spent $250

ranked 1195 on the sim this week

 

[az_prof]

Hmm...just realized I am definitely taking a 0 in week one because of Flacco/Rice/Heap.Oh well.

I don't understand: why?

 

[rzrback77]

Forgot to add that all of my roster is playing today, but a maximum of ten will score for me this week. Since I also included two each on Dallas and Philadelphia, I will lose two of my roster after this week and will have only eight maximum players in week two.

May regret stacking so many guys from the long-shot rosters of Arizona and Baltimore.

 

[BassNBrew]

Went with my two SB teams - SD/DALLThen took two players from the teams I think are going to win this weekend to get past Week 1 and 2. Of course, if they don't win, I'm out... But I like my chances If there is a SD/DALL SBPhilip Rivers $28 0.00 LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00 Vincent Jackson $21 0.00 Malcom Floyd $10 0.00 San Diego Chargers $10 0.00 Ray Rice $16 0.00 Derrick Mason $12 0.00 Thomas Jones $14 0.00 Jerricho Cotchery $11 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Marion Barber $14 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Miles Austin $22 0.00 Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00 Ryan Grant $17 0.00 Greg Jennings $16 0.00

Gotta root against you since you have me covered in the Bowl unless the Dal/Sd kickers go nuts.

 

[az_prof]

I did like most of you above:

1) Picked the SB teams: IND and NO seem the most likely.

2) Loaded up with 70% of my money on the two SB teams

3) Used remaining 30% on WC teams from week 1, focusing on QBs because of 6 pt passing TDs

I need great games from Rodgers and Romo to get me through week 1. I gambled that with 4,000 teams advancing and with other people also focusing on the SB teams that I could slip by with the two QBs, a DEF and a PK from week 1. I did not want to make it to the final round and then lose.

Entry 101090

This entry is still alive.

18

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Joseph Addai $19 0.00

Austin Collie $14 0.00

Dallas Clark $26 0.00

Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00

Jay Feely $10 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Drew Brees $29 0.00

Reggie Bush $13 0.00

Robert Meachem $14 0.00

Garrett Hartley $11 0.00

New Orleans Saints $13 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

 

[the_taint]

The 957 teams with Brad Smith are happy so far.

 

[Doug Drinen]

LOL

 

[Gadabout]

LOL

Rex Ryan's squad.