2010 FBG Post Season Contest (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

So far, looking like 2 for 2 in my picks of 1st round teams advancing and Cowboys to give me a shot at it still. Taking Barber over Felix looks to hurt for right now, though. If I can get all 4 of my defenses/kickers make it, I should be a lock for next week too. Sim has me at ~97% for this week. Once I get past the first 2 weeks, just need to be right on NE/Dallas.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Ithink I fell into the same trap as alot of people. I was fiuring about 6000 in the contest so I needed to sqeak in the playoffs just being in the top 2/3. Had Greene and Jones so maybe I have a shot? Drinen gives me a 5% shot at making it.

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Joseph Addai $19 0.00

Austin Collie $14 0.00

LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00

Darren Sproles $13 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Ray Rice $16 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Shonn Greene $7 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Drew Brees $29 0.00

Marques Colston $19 0.00

Devery Henderson $11 0.00

Sam Hurd $2 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Donald Driver $16 0.00

 

[BassNBrew]

I really didn't put as much strategy as I wanted, so I ain't too optimistic, but I absolutely loved the contest. Kudos to FBG for a great idea. Quite the brainteaser.I figured whoever is gonna win has the two QBs from the Super Bowl teams, so I guessed SD and Minny. If I can roll in the game with Rivers, Gates SD Def, and Favre, Harvin, ADP, I'll be interested. I think I made a mistake with not enough Packers. But I also think I wished I had spent more time thinking about ignoring a position. TEs were expensive, in hindsight, and it never occurred to my dumb ### to just ignore them. Donald Brown $9 0.00 Reggie Wayne $23 0.00 Matt Stover $10 0.00 Philip Rivers $28 0.00 Antonio Gates $24 0.00 San Diego Chargers $10 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Thomas Jones $14 0.00 Shonn Greene $7 0.00 Brad Smith $2 0.00 New York Jets $7 0.00 Brett Favre $25 0.00 Adrian Peterson $25 0.00 Percy Harvin $16 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 LaRod Stephens-Howling $2 0.00 Jerheme Urban $4 0.00 Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

Moving on to week 3. Congrats.

 

[Dragon1952]

Crap....totally misunderstood the rules.

 

[Couch Potato]

While I said above I am just in it to see how many weeks I can last, if I were to go all out to win it I would go with anything BUT chalk. Going chalk only guarantees you don't win. The guy who plans everything right statistically cannot win. I promise you that.Those of you hoping to be in the money and counting on Manning and Wayne and Clark to get you there need to realize there are so many others doing exactly that same thing and owning those exact players that even if the Colts make it to the SB your chances are very slim unless you have juuuuuuust the right minor unique player as well. There's no carry over of points from the previous week, so someone in SB week has to set you apart, and it WON'T be a big name player. You have to have picked the right opponent, most likely some unlikely underdog (like the Cardinals were last year), and some guy like, say, Urban has to be your lucky wild card. That's just how it is with 8901 permutations. And it's why, with a .0001123 chance of winning this thing to start out, I didn't overthink it. No point in me trying to sweat who the nobody player will be who will win this for someone.

We get it...too complicated for you.

Yeah that must be it.

 

[Big Rocks]

Aaron Rodgers $30

Peyton Manning $29

Tom Brady $29

Philip Rivers $28

Tony Romo $26

Mark Sanchez $13

Devery Henderson $11

Lance Moore $7

Nate Kaeding $14

Stephen Gostkowski $13

Ryan Longwell $12

Mason Crosby $11

Garrett Hartley $11

Jay Feely $10

Shaun Suisham $6

 

[Mister CIA]

All-in on the Cowboys and Ravens

Joe Flacco			$14	  0.00 Ray Rice			  $16	  0.00 Willis McGahee		 $7	  0.00 LeRon McClain		  $3	  0.00 Jalen Parmele		  $2	  0.00 Derrick Mason		 $12	  0.00 Mark Clayton		   $6	  0.00 Kelley Washington	  $5	  0.00 Demetrius Williams	 $2	  0.00 Todd Heap			 $10	  0.00 L.J. Smith			 $2	  0.00 Billy Cundiff		  $6	  0.00 Baltimore Ravens	   $7	  0.00 David Clowney		  $3	  0.00 Tony Romo			 $26	  0.00 Marion Barber		 $14	  0.00 Felix Jones			$8	  0.00 Tashard Choice		 $6	  0.00 Deon Anderson		  $2	  0.00 Miles Austin		  $22	  0.00 Roy Williams		  $12	  0.00 Patrick Crayton		$9	  0.00 Sam Hurd			   $2	  0.00 Kevin Ogletree		 $2	  0.00 Jason Witten		  $19	  0.00 Martellus Bennett	  $4	  0.00 John Phillips		  $2	  0.00 Shaun Suisham		  $6	  0.00 Dallas Cowboys		 $8	  0.00 Ahman Green			$4	  0.00 John Kuhn			  $2	  0.00 Jordy Nelson		   $6	  0.00

You realize that even if it's Dallas/Baltimore Super Bowl, you'll never get there? You're going to have 4 players counting for you in weeks 1, 2, and 3 (aside from those token GB guys). Good luck with that.

Went Evelyn Woods on the contest rules at the last minute. Go Jordy!

Then again ....Likely I get bumped tomorrow, but as they say, that which does not kill you makes you stronger. What are the odds I survive week 1 with nothing but Cowboys and Ravens (and a few scrubs) ? ... 1 in 300, maybe? What are my odds of making the final 1000? ... 1 in 500? And if I make the final 1000 AND the Cowboys play the Ravens in the Super Bowl, Hello $1,000.Bottom line, Guiness math says I came out of the gate with a 1 in 700 chance of winning. Not bad considering there are 8,901 contestants. If I had a do-over I'd do something slightly different (something that involves Shonn Greene), but at this instant I kind of like where I am, assuming the Cowboys throw another 3 TDs up in the second half. Were John Phillips to catch 3 TDs in the second half, all the better.

 

[BassNBrew]

Not sure why people were expecting a low number of entries. There were almost 6000 last year in a contest where you had to answer a bunch of questions and think. I think DD mentioned 8000+ in other past post season contests. Once Joe sent out the e-mail and Dodds bolded the contest link on the home page I figured 8000 was a lock.

 

[BassNBrew]

Aaron Rodgers $30 Peyton Manning $29 Tom Brady $29Philip Rivers $28 Tony Romo $26 Mark Sanchez $13 Devery Henderson $11 Lance Moore $7 Nate Kaeding $14 Stephen Gostkowski $13 Ryan Longwell $12 Mason Crosby $11 Garrett Hartley $11 Jay Feely $10 Shaun Suisham $6

Lineups like this should scare people expecting to cruise early.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

Not sure why people were expecting a low number of entries. There were almost 6000 last year in a contest where you had to answer a bunch of questions and think. I think DD mentioned 8000+ in other past post season contests. Once Joe sent out the e-mail and Dodds bolded the contest link on the home page I figured 8000 was a lock.

HEre is where I came up with my number.

 

[Das Boot]

Aaron Rodgers $30 Peyton Manning $29 Tom Brady $29Philip Rivers $28 Tony Romo $26 Mark Sanchez $13 Devery Henderson $11 Lance Moore $7 Nate Kaeding $14 Stephen Gostkowski $13 Ryan Longwell $12 Mason Crosby $11 Garrett Hartley $11 Jay Feely $10 Shaun Suisham $6

Lineups like this should scare people expecting to cruise early.

Exactly, and I figure there's probably a lot of them like this.So I spent a lot more $$$ trying to be safe in rounds and 2 than I wanted to.There are bound to be a few teams that walk the tightrope perfectly to get to the SB then have a killer lineup when they get there... but I'm thinking an awful lot of teams that would kick ### in the SB will never get there.

 

[BassNBrew]

All-in on the Cowboys and Ravens

Joe Flacco			$14	  0.00 Ray Rice			  $16	  0.00 Willis McGahee		 $7	  0.00 LeRon McClain		  $3	  0.00 Jalen Parmele		  $2	  0.00 Derrick Mason		 $12	  0.00 Mark Clayton		   $6	  0.00 Kelley Washington	  $5	  0.00 Demetrius Williams	 $2	  0.00 Todd Heap			 $10	  0.00 L.J. Smith			 $2	  0.00 Billy Cundiff		  $6	  0.00 Baltimore Ravens	   $7	  0.00 David Clowney		  $3	  0.00 Tony Romo			 $26	  0.00 Marion Barber		 $14	  0.00 Felix Jones			$8	  0.00 Tashard Choice		 $6	  0.00 Deon Anderson		  $2	  0.00 Miles Austin		  $22	  0.00 Roy Williams		  $12	  0.00 Patrick Crayton		$9	  0.00 Sam Hurd			   $2	  0.00 Kevin Ogletree		 $2	  0.00 Jason Witten		  $19	  0.00 Martellus Bennett	  $4	  0.00 John Phillips		  $2	  0.00 Shaun Suisham		  $6	  0.00 Dallas Cowboys		 $8	  0.00 Ahman Green			$4	  0.00 John Kuhn			  $2	  0.00 Jordy Nelson		   $6	  0.00

You realize that even if it's Dallas/Baltimore Super Bowl, you'll never get there? You're going to have 4 players counting for you in weeks 1, 2, and 3 (aside from those token GB guys). Good luck with that.

Went Evelyn Woods on the contest rules at the last minute. Go Jordy!

Then again ....Likely I get bumped tomorrow, but as they say, that which does not kill you makes you stronger. What are the odds I survive week 1 with nothing but Cowboys and Ravens (and a few scrubs) ? ... 1 in 300, maybe? What are my odds of making the final 1000? ... 1 in 500? And if I make the final 1000 AND the Cowboys play the Ravens in the Super Bowl, Hello $1,000.Bottom line, Guiness math says I came out of the gate with a 1 in 700 chance of winning. Not bad considering there are 8,901 contestants. If I had a do-over I'd do something slightly different (something that involves Shonn Greene), but at this instant I kind of like where I am, assuming the Cowboys throw another 3 TDs up in the second half. Were John Phillips to catch 3 TDs in the second half, all the better.

1/300 x 1/300 * 1/300 = 1 in 2.7 million chance of making the last week and then a 100% chance of winning.Although I think you odds are more like 1/10 * 1/100 * 1/50 = 1 in 50000 chance of making the super bowl and 100 % chance of winning from there.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

SO what do we think this makes the cutoff (est of course)?

 

[Das Boot]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

SO what do we think this makes the cutoff (est of course)?

Check team #4000 in the above link for the simulator's answer...

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm going to predict that tiebreakers don't come into play.

 

[Mister CIA]

All-in on the Cowboys and Ravens

Joe Flacco			$14	  0.00 Ray Rice			  $16	  0.00 Willis McGahee		 $7	  0.00 LeRon McClain		  $3	  0.00 Jalen Parmele		  $2	  0.00 Derrick Mason		 $12	  0.00 Mark Clayton		   $6	  0.00 Kelley Washington	  $5	  0.00 Demetrius Williams	 $2	  0.00 Todd Heap			 $10	  0.00 L.J. Smith			 $2	  0.00 Billy Cundiff		  $6	  0.00 Baltimore Ravens	   $7	  0.00 David Clowney		  $3	  0.00 Tony Romo			 $26	  0.00 Marion Barber		 $14	  0.00 Felix Jones			$8	  0.00 Tashard Choice		 $6	  0.00 Deon Anderson		  $2	  0.00 Miles Austin		  $22	  0.00 Roy Williams		  $12	  0.00 Patrick Crayton		$9	  0.00 Sam Hurd			   $2	  0.00 Kevin Ogletree		 $2	  0.00 Jason Witten		  $19	  0.00 Martellus Bennett	  $4	  0.00 John Phillips		  $2	  0.00 Shaun Suisham		  $6	  0.00 Dallas Cowboys		 $8	  0.00 Ahman Green			$4	  0.00 John Kuhn			  $2	  0.00 Jordy Nelson		   $6	  0.00

You realize that even if it's Dallas/Baltimore Super Bowl, you'll never get there? You're going to have 4 players counting for you in weeks 1, 2, and 3 (aside from those token GB guys). Good luck with that.

Went Evelyn Woods on the contest rules at the last minute. Go Jordy!

Then again ....Likely I get bumped tomorrow, but as they say, that which does not kill you makes you stronger. What are the odds I survive week 1 with nothing but Cowboys and Ravens (and a few scrubs) ? ... 1 in 300, maybe? What are my odds of making the final 1000? ... 1 in 500? And if I make the final 1000 AND the Cowboys play the Ravens in the Super Bowl, Hello $1,000.Bottom line, Guiness math says I came out of the gate with a 1 in 700 chance of winning. Not bad considering there are 8,901 contestants. If I had a do-over I'd do something slightly different (something that involves Shonn Greene), but at this instant I kind of like where I am, assuming the Cowboys throw another 3 TDs up in the second half. Were John Phillips to catch 3 TDs in the second half, all the better.

1/300 x 1/300 * 1/300 = 1 in 2.7 million chance of making the last week and then a 100% chance of winning.Although I think you odds are more like 1/10 * 1/100 * 1/50 = 1 in 50000 chance of making the super bowl and 100 % chance of winning from there.

One of us is drinking bad Guiness.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

SO what do we think this makes the cutoff (est of course)?

Check team #4000 in the above link for the simulator's answer...

avg score of 116?

 

[Das Boot]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

SO what do we think this makes the cutoff (est of course)?

Check team #4000 in the above link for the simulator's answer...

avg score of 116?

Yep... maybe Doug Drinen will rerun it with the results of tonight's games so we can see how things have shifted.

 

[The Man With No Name]

1938 have Felix Jones who is helping a lot of teams probably. I just wish I hadn't picked as many wildcard weekend players and got more players that are on BYE. Will easily make it to playoff week 2.

 

[BassNBrew]

OK, I would not bet one thin dime on this thing being bug free --- it's tough to turn it around this quick --- but here is a wildcard sim. Looks like the cutoff will probably somewhere in the 110s.

With the same caveat, here is the querier.

TIA for letting me know if you find anything strange with either of them.

SO what do we think this makes the cutoff (est of course)?

116. I had guessed that 120 would be needed to advance when selecting 1st rd players.

 

[Fennis]

Assuming there would be somewhere around 4000 entries was my first (and last) mistake

 

[pizzatyme]

I picked Dallas/Indy SB. I only picked 2 players otherwise in Edelman and a flyer on Doucet if Boldin is gimpy. Didn't think about it too much so tell me it's flawed and I'll believe you.

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Joseph Addai $19 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Pierre Garcon $13 0.00

Dallas Clark $26 0.00

Matt Stover $10 0.00

Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Marion Barber $14 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Sam Hurd $2 0.00

Jason Witten $19 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00

Early Doucet $5 0.00

 

[bostonfred]

It appears that instead of taking five defenses that play in week one, I somehow swapped out Dallas for the Vikings without realizing it, which is probably not good news for this test of the kickers and defenses strategy.

The good news is that Suish has a whole bunch of points, though.

 

[gianmarco]

I picked Dallas/Indy SB. I only picked 2 players otherwise in Edelman and a flyer on Doucet if Boldin is gimpy. Didn't think about it too much so tell me it's flawed and I'll believe you.Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Reggie Wayne $23 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Dallas Clark $26 0.00 Matt Stover $10 0.00 Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Marion Barber $14 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Miles Austin $22 0.00 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Jason Witten $19 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00 Early Doucet $5 0.00

It's flawed. Very flawed. Without the sim, I can tell you that you have about a 0% chance of advancing. Here's your scoring for this week:Best 2 CowboysDoucetEdelmanGood luck beating about 5000 people with that score.

 

[Couch Potato]

I picked Dallas/Indy SB. I only picked 2 players otherwise in Edelman and a flyer on Doucet if Boldin is gimpy. Didn't think about it too much so tell me it's flawed and I'll believe you.Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Reggie Wayne $23 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Dallas Clark $26 0.00 Matt Stover $10 0.00 Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Marion Barber $14 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Miles Austin $22 0.00 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Jason Witten $19 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00 Early Doucet $5 0.00

Yep, it's flawed. Your plan is to make it to next week using points from just Edelman, Doucet, and two of your Cowboys. I don't think that'll beat 4900 people and make the cut.ETA -- but I thank you for helping my chances of making the cut.

 

[PantherPower]

I wasted $19 on Witten. :( Not confident that Rodgers, Grant, McGahee, Breaston, and Adelman will be enough.

 

[Bobcat10]

Went big with Colts, although no Addai/Wayne/Clark. Tried to be a bit different in that regard.

Wanted to just get by this weekend. The sim has this team at 4087 iirc, so I think I accomplished that. Now just have to see what happens.

Just looking at my team now though..I'm not thrilled. I had not planned on Wells and Bush but for some reason they fell into my final iteration. Late night tweaking last night seems just so-so .

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Donald Brown $9 0.00

Austin Collie $14 0.00

Pierre Garcon $13 0.00

Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Reggie Bush $13 0.00

Brett Favre $25 0.00

Sidney Rice $19 0.00

Kurt Warner $21 0.00

Chris Wells $10 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Donovan McNabb $23 0.00

DeSean Jackson $19 0.00

13 other teams have the bolded combo above.What I noticed is most of them look something like this (2 teams, Colts vs NFC):

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Joseph Addai $19 0.00

Donald Brown $9 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Austin Collie $14 0.00

Pierre Garcon $13 0.00

Hank Baskett $2 0.00

Dallas Clark $26 0.00

Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Ryan Grant $17 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

Donald Driver $16 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

Green Bay Packers $10 0.00

There has to be hundreds of these types of entries, no? Could be upwards of a 1000 entries that have no chance getting out of this week?

:(

 

[pizzatyme]

I picked Dallas/Indy SB. I only picked 2 players otherwise in Edelman and a flyer on Doucet if Boldin is gimpy. Didn't think about it too much so tell me it's flawed and I'll believe you.Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Reggie Wayne $23 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Dallas Clark $26 0.00 Matt Stover $10 0.00 Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Marion Barber $14 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Miles Austin $22 0.00 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Jason Witten $19 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00 Early Doucet $5 0.00

Yep, it's flawed. Your plan is to make it to next week using points from just Edelman, Doucet, and two of your Cowboys. I don't think that'll beat 4900 people and make the cut.ETA -- but I thank you for helping my chances of making the cut.

Good luck!

 

[CrazyHorse1581]

Dallas Clark $26 0.00Fred Taylor $11 0.00 Randy Moss $26 0.00 Joe Flacco $14 0.00 Ray Rice $16 0.00 Willis McGahee $7 0.00 Brett Favre $25 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Tashard Choice $6 0.00 Miles Austin $22 0.00 Shaun Suisham $6 0.00 Chris Wells $10 0.00 Larry Fitzgerald $19 0.00 Steve Breaston $11 0.00 Brent Celek $17 0.00

Here's how I went. I think Dallas will go to the Super Bowl and I basically went value shopping after that with the exception of Moss, Favre and Fitz. Tried not to take a bunch of Vikes, Colts, Saints, and Chargers in order to make it through the first week. We'll see how it pans out.

 

[Rovers]

I don't remember all thye players I took now. LOL.... Hoping that T Jones, Keller and Romo did well. I think I had Barber. no bengals, no Eagles. Warner and Fitz tomorrow...Edelamn and ????

 

[QuizGuy66]

So I assume this guy rostered the most players?

I'm surprised to see that less than 1% of people have 25+ players on their roster.

38-scrub guy? 68 was the most technically possible btw (I think I posted that earlier)

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Nate Kaeding $14 0.00

Carson Palmer $19 0.00

Joe Flacco $14 0.00

Demetrius Williams $2 0.00

Mark Sanchez $13 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Kurt Warner $21 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Just call me the 7 QB guy...8 if you include Brad Smith. Wonder if anyone took all of them.

I do recall jettisoning Greene to work Palmer into the equation. that was a mistake.

Only two teams have the 5-player combo of Sanchez-Romo-Rodgers-Palmer-Rivers. Humorously it's you and 10-QB Guy. BUT 10-QB guy doesn't have Flacco amongst his 10, so you are the only one with these 7 QBs.Here's 10 QB guy - how you think he'll do in the Super Bowl Week?!?

-QG

 

[kardplayer]

Similar to many others, I focused on having a good team for the Super Bowl, while hoping to "survive and advance" the first two rounds.

My big mistakes - underestimating the size of the field + bad math skills.

- I was hoping that there would be more like 5-6k in the first round, not the ~9k that actually showed up. This was based on absolutely nothing.

- On the bad math skills, I figured you get 2 guys per team, but somehow convinced myself that meant 8 players would score in week 1 and 2 (vs. 16). No idea how I came up with that.

Even with those mistakes, the simulator says I have a 62.2% chance of advancing, so I have to figure there are other equally bad opening week rosters...

I went with a SD/GB Super Bowl + Romo, Rice, and Celek. Figuring that if GB won this week (and if they lose, I'm out anyway), that would give me 5 scores this week and 5 or 6 next week (depending on Balt) vs. a max of 8 (see, this is where my poor math skills bite me).

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Malcom Floyd $10 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Ray Rice $16 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Ryan Grant $17 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

Mason Crosby $11 0.00

Brent Celek $17 0.00

Biggest improvement I need to make is remembering these contests while I still have time to think through my entry!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Simulator actually likes my team. 83.1% chance of survival it says ranking in the top 2300. Of course the simulator liked my team in the regular contest and then week 1 arrived

For the curious, here's the team the simulator liked the best:

Right Here

The guy went exclusively with players on wildcard weekend teams.

Then there's THIS ENTRY. Can't quite put my finger on the flaw in this guy's strategy

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Btw there were 80 such entries with a max this week of 0 according to the simulator

-QG

 

[editor47]

fantasystar up to date for this?

 

[Mario Kart]

I was looking to score some points this week by picking a couple of winning teams and then picked some bye week players to, duh, score next week for me. I was picking teams that I thought would go far and was not worrying about having a few or more players from one team to load up on during the Super Bowl. Point is, you have to get there first before you can play there. Looking at my team now I am surprised I have four Cowboys. That said, the Jets and Cowboys both made it to next week for me. I am really hoping Baltimore can get past the Patriots and I believe they have a great shot at doing so. I was see-sawing over the Packers/Cardinals game so only went with Jennings as I did not want to spend a lot of money on a see-saw there. I think my 2-player per team (exception was Dallas and Minnesota) could work out. If I can get some points, duh, from Rice/Mason, Jennings tomorrow, I could be good for week 2.

That said, I will probably miss by a point or two.

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Ray Rice $16 0.00

Derrick Mason $12 0.00

Dustin Keller $9 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Robert Meachem $14 0.00

Garrett Hartley $11 0.00

Brett Favre $25 0.00

Adrian Peterson $25 0.00

Minnesota Vikings $9 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Marion Barber $14 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

I am at ~64 with Jennings to go. I either need some dumb rosters to emerge or I need a huge game tomorrow.

 

[editor47]

i will never remember this for next year but for those who might: i wouldn't waste money on defenses and kickers if i had it all to do over again. i would spend money on position players who can put up big numbers, like shonn greene and felix jones. both were on my roster at some point.

Mike Hart $2 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Jacob Tamme $2 0.00

Gijon Robinson $2 0.00

Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

Craig Davis $2 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Kris Wilson $2 0.00

Brandon Manumaleuna $2 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Demetrius Williams $2 0.00

Billy Cundiff $6 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Danny Woodhead $2 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Lynell Hamilton $2 0.00

Greg Lewis $2 0.00

Jaymar Johnson $2 0.00

Jeff Dugan $2 0.00

Jim Kleinsasser $2 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Sam Hurd $2 0.00

Early Doucet $5 0.00

Stephen Spach $2 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Mason Crosby $11 0.00

i wound up overkilling on $2 players - 16 of them. a truly crappy performance.

 

[The Future Champs]

After taking a quick look at a random assortment of teams, I'm stuck between two conclusions:

1. A lot of guys bet there'd be less than 4000 entries.

or

2. A lot of guys didn't understand the rules.

 

[Mapmaker]

I like SD vs either GB or Dallas in the Bowl .. but since you get two scorers per team only for the weeks leading up to the SB you want them to be scorers ... totally discounted Indy and NO because of past playoff performances and NO's weak finish to the season ... Favre and the Vikings ... Who Datt ...

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Tom Brady $29 0.00

Randy Moss $26 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Ryan Grant $17 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

 

[Unlucky]

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Ray Rice $16 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Marion Barber $14 0.00

Darren Sproles $13 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Greg Jennings $16 0.00

Donald Driver $16 0.00

Derrick Mason $12 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00

So, counting up the potential players:

Week 1: 8

Week 2: 10

Week 3: 8

Superbowl: 8

Figured there's no chance to win if you don't have a lot in the Superbowl. Then, how do you make it that far? Have to have 8 in the Conf Championship weekend, and 8 solid ones at that. Decided to gamble on DAL vs. GB, and BAL vs. SD. (not likely, I know) Then, it was just fill in with players that could/would help me in weeks 1 and 2 that aren't on those teams. I totally avoided teams that I need to lose their first game: CIN, ARZ, MIN, IND, and NO. Again, unlikely, but the only way to win is guess the winning teams correctly.

 

[Random]

I did like most of you above:1) Picked the SB teams: IND and NO seem the most likely.2) Loaded up with 70% of my money on the two SB teams3) Used remaining 30% on WC teams from week 1, focusing on QBs because of 6 pt passing TDsI need great games from Rodgers and Romo to get me through week 1. I gambled that with 4,000 teams advancing and with other people also focusing on the SB teams that I could slip by with the two QBs, a DEF and a PK from week 1. I did not want to make it to the final round and then lose.Entry 101090This entry is still alive. 18 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Austin Collie $14 0.00 Dallas Clark $26 0.00 Indianapolis Colts $9 0.00 Jay Feely $10 0.00 New York Jets $7 0.00 Drew Brees $29 0.00 Reggie Bush $13 0.00 Robert Meachem $14 0.00 Garrett Hartley $11 0.00 New Orleans Saints $13 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Same SB teams. Different playerseyton Manning $29 0.00 Reggie Wayne $23 0.00 Austin Collie $14 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Philip Rivers $28 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 0.00 Ben Watson $11 0.00 Demetrius Williams $2 0.00 Drew Brees $29 0.00 Marques Colston $19 0.00 Robert Meachem $14 0.00 Tony Romo $26 0.00 Felix Jones $8 0.00 Early Doucet $5 0.00 Ryan Grant $17 0.00 But the sim only gives me a 6% chance of making out of week 1?

 

[Da Man]

Picked Chargers (6) vs Cowboys(5) in the Super Bowl. I was hoping Edelmann, Shonn Greene, Jets def,Finley, Crosby plus the 2 high Cowboy scorers from yesterday could get me to round 2. We will see.......

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

LaDainian Tomlinson $17 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Antonio Gates $24 0.00

Nate Kaeding $14 0.00

San Diego Chargers $10 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Shonn Greene $7 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Miles Austin $22 0.00

Jason Witten $19 0.00

Dallas Cowboys $8 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

Mason Crosby $11 0.00

 

[Doug Drinen]

New sim here.

Cut line looks to be around 110ish.

 

[Doug Drinen]

And here are some basic stats so you'll know who to root against if you're hoping against all reasonable hope in today's games, as I am.

| Larry Fitzgerald	   | crd  | 0.249 || Kurt Warner			| crd  | 0.188 || Chris Wells			| crd  | 0.142 || Neil Rackers		   | crd  | 0.084 || Steve Breaston		 | crd  | 0.067 || Arizona Cardinals	  | crd  | 0.028 || Tim Hightower		  | crd  | 0.024 || Anquan Boldin		  | crd  | 0.023 || Early Doucet		   | crd  | 0.022 || Jerheme Urban		  | crd  | 0.013 || LaRod Stephens-Howling | crd  | 0.011 || Anthony Becht		  | crd  | 0.008 || Ben Patrick			| crd  | 0.008 || Stephen Spach		  | crd  | 0.004 || Jason Wright		   | crd  | 0.002 || Aaron Rodgers		  | gnb  | 0.468 || Ryan Grant			 | gnb  | 0.363 || Greg Jennings		  | gnb  | 0.226 || Jermichael Finley	  | gnb  | 0.159 || Mason Crosby		   | gnb  | 0.152 || Green Bay Packers	  | gnb  | 0.146 || Donald Driver		  | gnb  | 0.141 || James Jones			| gnb  | 0.036 || Brandon Jackson		| gnb  | 0.028 || Jordy Nelson		   | gnb  | 0.022 || John Kuhn			  | gnb  | 0.016 || Donald Lee			 | gnb  | 0.015 || Ahman Green			| gnb  | 0.015 || Julian Edelman		 | nwe  | 0.291 || Tom Brady			  | nwe  | 0.169 || Randy Moss			 | nwe  | 0.134 || Stephen Gostkowski	 | nwe  | 0.073 || Ben Watson			 | nwe  | 0.049 || Fred Taylor			| nwe  | 0.046 || New England Patriots   | nwe  | 0.046 || Laurence Maroney	   | nwe  | 0.042 || Kevin Faulk			| nwe  | 0.037 || Sammy Morris		   | nwe  | 0.037 || Sam Aiken			  | nwe  | 0.019 || BenJarvus Green-Ellis  | nwe  | 0.017 || Chris Baker			| nwe  | 0.016 || Ray Rice			   | rav  | 0.362 || Willis McGahee		 | rav  | 0.142 || Joe Flacco			 | rav  | 0.105 || Baltimore Ravens	   | rav  | 0.079 || Derrick Mason		  | rav  | 0.078 || Billy Cundiff		  | rav  | 0.071 || Todd Heap			  | rav  | 0.060 || LeRon McClain		  | rav  | 0.039 || Demetrius Williams	 | rav  | 0.026 || Mark Clayton		   | rav  | 0.018 || Kelley Washington	  | rav  | 0.011 || L.J. Smith			 | rav  | 0.008 || Jalen Parmele		  | rav  | 0.002 |

 

[David Yudkin]

New sim here.

Cut line looks to be around 110ish.

If I'm reading this right, it looks like there are 1127 teams already with a 0% chance to advance.

 

[Rovers]

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Donald Brown $9 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Dallas Clark $26 0.00

San Diego Chargers $10 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

Thomas Jones $14 0.00

Brad Smith $2 0.00

Dustin Keller $9 0.00

Marques Colston $19 0.00

Tony Romo $26 0.00

Marion Barber $14 0.00

Sam Hurd $2 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Kurt Warner $21 0.00

Larry Fitzgerald $19 0.00

Green Bay Packers $10 0.00

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 0.00

CUTOFF 0.00

Went with a Dallas/Indy SB. No idea if I make it past this week.

 

[Doug Drinen]

New sim here.

Cut line looks to be around 110ish.

If I'm reading this right, it looks like there are 1127 teams already with a 0% chance to advance.

Yep, it looks that way. Many of them appear to be sitting in the 70s or 80s with no players playing today.

 

[seatownfavorite]

First crack at a survivor contest, think advancing is pretty safe but winning is another thing all together.

Peyton Manning $29 0.00

Reggie Wayne $23 0.00

Hank Baskett $2 0.00

Philip Rivers $28 0.00

Darren Sproles $13 0.00

Jacob Hester $2 0.00

Vincent Jackson $21 0.00

Julian Edelman $11 0.00

LeRon McClain $3 0.00

Mark Clayton $6 0.00

New York Jets $7 0.00

Chester Taylor $8 0.00

Sidney Rice $19 0.00

Felix Jones $8 0.00

Shaun Suisham $6 0.00

Anquan Boldin $16 0.00

Aaron Rodgers $30 0.00

Jermichael Finley $17 0.00

 

[Rovers]

How does one find their own team in the sim? I know my team number... but where is it?