2010 list of players to SELL (1 Viewer)

[shader]

A couple of things:

First of all, if a player is on this list, I don't think they are going to have a poor 2010. So this list is virtually meaningless for re-draft leagues.

The point of this thread is to highlight players who are still highly thought of, but that you better trade before the oncoming "old age" train hits them right in the eyes.

Guys that are studs (Reggie Wayne) one year, fall off a cliff value-wise the next year. If you sold Reggie Wayne LAST off-season, you could have gotten quite a bit for him. Try selling him THIS off-season and see what happens.

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

2. At running back, the only 2 I see that apply are Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. I'd be looking to sell both. I fear it's too late for Jackson though. You MIGHT get lucky with selling Gore. You'll need a fast start from Gore. If you get it, I'd sell into that start HARD.

3. Randy Moss. I realize Moss' value has already fallen quite a bit. However, he still could put up a great season this year, and you still have owners who love the guy. He was a top 5 WR last year, so he should still command a pretty hefty price-tag. The problem with Moss is that I have a feeling that he might already have the "perception" of being old, despite the fact that he was a top 5 WR last year. You might make your team worse in 2010 if you trade Moss for a young guy that doesn't perform as well as Randy this year...but look no further than Terrell Owens to see how quickly an older WR can fall flat on his face, and Owens' work ethic has always been better than Moss.

Now on the flip side, are players whose values have ALREADY fallen, and who in reality can be had for cheap. Reggie Wayne is the prime example. You can pick him up for much cheaper than last off-season and the reality is that he's still probably a top 5 WR.

Any thoughts suggestions or additions would be appreciated

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

A few notes:

First, selling or not selling players that are to producers at their position is based on your team needs. Not a contender? SELL! Contending? You are probably holding.

The only way a contender sells is if he is getting significant value in return, otherwise the short term (1 -2 seasons) loss in production is not worth it.

So, what can you sell these players for?

Manning should still hold good value, you might not have to lose a lot at the QB spot in selling him.

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews. Who do you trade them for? Maybe if you are loaded at RB and somebody is loaded at WR you might get a Vince Jackson or Roddy White... maybe, but it depends on your league. I would bet you won't get those guys, either, in many leagues.

Moss is in the same boat... great production, low perceived dynasty value. Who do you trade a short term top 5 WR for? Certainly not rookie WRs outside of Dez... and even in Dez you are taking a huge hit for at least this year, and maybe next as well. The fact is that you are unlikely to get more than a WR2 type or several prospects in return for Moss... that may be fine if you are not playing for this year and next, but if Moss is your WR1, you cannot afford to trade him and still contend.... and if he is your WR2, that is too big an advantage to give up for a jerry maclin type of player, a guy whose best days are in 201 and beyond, but who may never even be top 10, much less top 5.

I have Gore in one of my dynasty leagues and would not trade him. I see him as top 5 this year and next, with significant upside. Anybody that I would trade for would very likely be a several ppg downgrade... I would rather win now.

I traded Moss, but it was a part of a blockbuster that had AJ and Moss going out and Fitz + Dez coming back, plus more pieces involved. Moss was a meaningful part of the deal, but AJ was the real headliner that I was giving up.

TL;DR - Trade these guys if you can get great value, but you probably can't. keep them if you want to win now.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I was just perusing the dynasty trade thread and saw the following:

Zealots league scoring:

Team A:

Michael Bush OAK RB

Darren McFadden OAK RB

Pierre Garcon IND WR

2011 2nd round draft pick

Team B:

Steven Jackson RB STL

So he got the Oakland RBBC, that has unclear present and future value, a WR with only WR2 upside, and maybe not that, and a draft pick that will likely be a WR that won't produce until 2013, if ever.

I don't mind the Oak RBs, one of them could still emerge and be good, but this is a total boom/bust trade, with not a whole lot of boom, imo.

That being said, what else are you going to get for Jackson?

 

[identikit]

A few notes:

First, selling or not selling players that are to producers at their position is based on your team needs. Not a contender? SELL! Contending? You are probably holding.

The only way a contender sells is if he is getting significant value in return, otherwise the short term (1 -2 seasons) loss in production is not worth it.

So, what can you sell these players for?

Manning should still hold good value, you might not have to lose a lot at the QB spot in selling him.

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews. Who do you trade them for? Maybe if you are loaded at RB and somebody is loaded at WR you might get a Vince Jackson or Roddy White... maybe, but it depends on your league. I would bet you won't get those guys, either, in many leagues.

Moss is in the same boat... great production, low perceived dynasty value. Who do you trade a short term top 5 WR for? Certainly not rookie WRs outside of Dez... and even in Dez you are taking a huge hit for at least this year, and maybe next as well. The fact is that you are unlikely to get more than a WR2 type or several prospects in return for Moss... that may be fine if you are not playing for this year and next, but if Moss is your WR1, you cannot afford to trade him and still contend.... and if he is your WR2, that is too big an advantage to give up for a jerry maclin type of player, a guy whose best days are in 201 and beyond, but who may never even be top 10, much less top 5.

I have Gore in one of my dynasty leagues and would not trade him. I see him as top 5 this year and next, with significant upside. Anybody that I would trade for would very likely be a several ppg downgrade... I would rather win now.

I traded Moss, but it was a part of a blockbuster that had AJ and Moss going out and Fitz + Dez coming back, plus more pieces involved. Moss was a meaningful part of the deal, but AJ was the real headliner that I was giving up.

TL;DR - Trade these guys if you can get great value, but you probably can't. keep them if you want to win now.

Who are these guys?

 

[Pack43]

A couple of things:First of all, if a player is on this list, I don't think they are going to have a poor 2010. So this list is virtually meaningless for re-draft leagues.The point of this thread is to highlight players who are still highly thought of, but that you better trade before the oncoming "old age" train hits them right in the eyes.Guys that are studs (Reggie Wayne) one year, fall off a cliff value-wise the next year. If you sold Reggie Wayne LAST off-season, you could have gotten quite a bit for him. Try selling him THIS off-season and see what happens.1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon. 2. At running back, the only 2 I see that apply are Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. I'd be looking to sell both. I fear it's too late for Jackson though. You MIGHT get lucky with selling Gore. You'll need a fast start from Gore. If you get it, I'd sell into that start HARD. 3. Randy Moss. I realize Moss' value has already fallen quite a bit. However, he still could put up a great season this year, and you still have owners who love the guy. He was a top 5 WR last year, so he should still command a pretty hefty price-tag. The problem with Moss is that I have a feeling that he might already have the "perception" of being old, despite the fact that he was a top 5 WR last year. You might make your team worse in 2010 if you trade Moss for a young guy that doesn't perform as well as Randy this year...but look no further than Terrell Owens to see how quickly an older WR can fall flat on his face, and Owens' work ethic has always been better than Moss.Now on the flip side, are players whose values have ALREADY fallen, and who in reality can be had for cheap. Reggie Wayne is the prime example. You can pick him up for much cheaper than last off-season and the reality is that he's still probably a top 5 WR. Any thoughts suggestions or additions would be appreciated

Just curious why you think Wayne has fallen off so much and could be had for cheap. I agree his value has gone down some but I don't see his value being lower than Moss. It seems like your writeup of Moss could just as easily have been for Wayne. Wayne was a top 3 WR last year in PPR. I don't recall seeing any deals where Wayne has gone really cheap.

 

[shader]

I was just perusing the dynasty trade thread and saw the following:Zealots league scoring:Team A: Michael Bush OAK RBDarren McFadden OAK RBPierre Garcon IND WR2011 2nd round draft pickTeam B:Steven Jackson RB STLSo he got the Oakland RBBC, that has unclear present and future value, a WR with only WR2 upside, and maybe not that, and a draft pick that will likely be a WR that won't produce until 2013, if ever.I don't mind the Oak RBs, one of them could still emerge and be good, but this is a total boom/bust trade, with not a whole lot of boom, imo.That being said, what else are you going to get for Jackson?

You may be right about Jackson. As I said, it's probably a year too late for him. On the flip side, Jackson might be a great guy to get on the cheap and definetely worth the risk.

 

[shader]

A few notes:First, selling or not selling players that are to producers at their position is based on your team needs. Not a contender? SELL! Contending? You are probably holding.The only way a contender sells is if he is getting significant value in return, otherwise the short term (1 -2 seasons) loss in production is not worth it.So, what can you sell these players for?Manning should still hold good value, you might not have to lose a lot at the QB spot in selling him.Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews. Who do you trade them for? Maybe if you are loaded at RB and somebody is loaded at WR you might get a Vince Jackson or Roddy White... maybe, but it depends on your league. I would bet you won't get those guys, either, in many leagues. Moss is in the same boat... great production, low perceived dynasty value. Who do you trade a short term top 5 WR for? Certainly not rookie WRs outside of Dez... and even in Dez you are taking a huge hit for at least this year, and maybe next as well. The fact is that you are unlikely to get more than a WR2 type or several prospects in return for Moss... that may be fine if you are not playing for this year and next, but if Moss is your WR1, you cannot afford to trade him and still contend.... and if he is your WR2, that is too big an advantage to give up for a jerry maclin type of player, a guy whose best days are in 201 and beyond, but who may never even be top 10, much less top 5.I have Gore in one of my dynasty leagues and would not trade him. I see him as top 5 this year and next, with significant upside. Anybody that I would trade for would very likely be a several ppg downgrade... I would rather win now.I traded Moss, but it was a part of a blockbuster that had AJ and Moss going out and Fitz + Dez coming back, plus more pieces involved. Moss was a meaningful part of the deal, but AJ was the real headliner that I was giving up.TL;DR - Trade these guys if you can get great value, but you probably can't. keep them if you want to win now.

I guess it depends on what your goals are in dynasty. My goal is to contend every year. To do so, I never want to hold a guy from his peak down to the end of his career. Take LT for instance. I advocated traded him 2 seasons ago. Yeah, I might have missed one year of top 5 production, and one year of solid RB production...but I would have gotten a TON for him. Now I'd be much better off with only a slight dip in production at one spot, for one year.But if your goal is to try and win now and next year only, then yeah you should hold onto Gore. But in my opinion, that is how your franchise falls apart, and I'd rather keep things going indefinetely.

 

[shader]

A couple of things:First of all, if a player is on this list, I don't think they are going to have a poor 2010. So this list is virtually meaningless for re-draft leagues.The point of this thread is to highlight players who are still highly thought of, but that you better trade before the oncoming "old age" train hits them right in the eyes.Guys that are studs (Reggie Wayne) one year, fall off a cliff value-wise the next year. If you sold Reggie Wayne LAST off-season, you could have gotten quite a bit for him. Try selling him THIS off-season and see what happens.1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon. 2. At running back, the only 2 I see that apply are Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. I'd be looking to sell both. I fear it's too late for Jackson though. You MIGHT get lucky with selling Gore. You'll need a fast start from Gore. If you get it, I'd sell into that start HARD. 3. Randy Moss. I realize Moss' value has already fallen quite a bit. However, he still could put up a great season this year, and you still have owners who love the guy. He was a top 5 WR last year, so he should still command a pretty hefty price-tag. The problem with Moss is that I have a feeling that he might already have the "perception" of being old, despite the fact that he was a top 5 WR last year. You might make your team worse in 2010 if you trade Moss for a young guy that doesn't perform as well as Randy this year...but look no further than Terrell Owens to see how quickly an older WR can fall flat on his face, and Owens' work ethic has always been better than Moss.Now on the flip side, are players whose values have ALREADY fallen, and who in reality can be had for cheap. Reggie Wayne is the prime example. You can pick him up for much cheaper than last off-season and the reality is that he's still probably a top 5 WR. Any thoughts suggestions or additions would be appreciated

Just curious why you think Wayne has fallen off so much and could be had for cheap. I agree his value has gone down some but I don't see his value being lower than Moss. It seems like your writeup of Moss could just as easily have been for Wayne. Wayne was a top 3 WR last year in PPR. I don't recall seeing any deals where Wayne has gone really cheap.

There's a good discussion about Wayne in the long dynasty thread. Wayne is starting to be perceived as the guy that's "getting older" (whether that's fair or unfair). Many I've talked to think he's lost a step, and much might have to do with the fact that he did really poorly in the playoffs and left us all with a bad taste in our mouths.I think if you watch dynasty drafts this year, Wayne won't go in the top 5. Probably more around 10 or so. That's a significant slip from one year to the next.Now at 10-15, he represents a potential bonanza of a steal. He's a guy I'd target at that point. Because all it takes ia a big explosion in the first half of the season, and his value is right back up. Also, he's 31 and he's made his money being a great route runner and being in a great system for a WR... So I think he easily has 3-5 really good seasons left. The Wayne "plummet" is premature, imo. I'd buy now for 2010, then sell during next year's off-season, or possibly the off-season following that.

 

[mcintyre1]

I was just perusing the dynasty trade thread and saw the following:Zealots league scoring:Team A: Michael Bush OAK RBDarren McFadden OAK RBPierre Garcon IND WR2011 2nd round draft pickTeam B:Steven Jackson RB STLSo he got the Oakland RBBC, that has unclear present and future value, a WR with only WR2 upside, and maybe not that, and a draft pick that will likely be a WR that won't produce until 2013, if ever.I don't mind the Oak RBs, one of them could still emerge and be good, but this is a total boom/bust trade, with not a whole lot of boom, imo.That being said, what else are you going to get for Jackson?

As the Jackson owner is the trade you posted, I'll try to explain my own personal thinking a bit.Bush - I see him as a ~1000 yard runner with a handful of TDs. Looking back at SJax's years, that's not a huge drop-off from what you actually receive from SJax any given year, due to injuries. The last time he scored significantly more than that was in 2006, when I didn't even own him (startup in 2008)McFadden - lots of people hate him. Personally, I think it is far too early to write him off, and I think he's a great stash for the next couple of years. He's only 23, and who knows, maybe he'll develop into a RB2 sometime.Garcon - love this guy. I see him as a good chance to grow into a Reggie Wayne-esque player in the next year or two. Of course, he could just as easily become a hideous bust.2nd round pick - I'm confident in my drafting. I think I can pick up an alright player with that pick (I snagged Desean Jackson in a different league with a mid 2nd rounder while everyone else was freaking out about his size). Basically, I didn't consider my team to be a legit contender. I barely made the playoffs last year, and I don't think I'm setup to win next season. I figure this trade either booms, and I get two good starters, or it busts, and I end up with my own high 2011 pick and two 2nds next year. If my team were to bust next year, and I HADN'T traded Jackson, he likely would have prevented me from getting a top 3 pick in the rookie draft.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I was just perusing the dynasty trade thread and saw the following:Zealots league scoring:Team A: Michael Bush OAK RBDarren McFadden OAK RBPierre Garcon IND WR2011 2nd round draft pickTeam B:Steven Jackson RB STLSo he got the Oakland RBBC, that has unclear present and future value, a WR with only WR2 upside, and maybe not that, and a draft pick that will likely be a WR that won't produce until 2013, if ever.I don't mind the Oak RBs, one of them could still emerge and be good, but this is a total boom/bust trade, with not a whole lot of boom, imo.That being said, what else are you going to get for Jackson?

As the Jackson owner is the trade you posted, I'll try to explain my own personal thinking a bit.Bush - I see him as a ~1000 yard runner with a handful of TDs. Looking back at SJax's years, that's not a huge drop-off from what you actually receive from SJax any given year, due to injuries. The last time he scored significantly more than that was in 2006, when I didn't even own him (startup in 2008)McFadden - lots of people hate him. Personally, I think it is far too early to write him off, and I think he's a great stash for the next couple of years. He's only 23, and who knows, maybe he'll develop into a RB2 sometime.Garcon - love this guy. I see him as a good chance to grow into a Reggie Wayne-esque player in the next year or two. Of course, he could just as easily become a hideous bust.2nd round pick - I'm confident in my drafting. I think I can pick up an alright player with that pick (I snagged Desean Jackson in a different league with a mid 2nd rounder while everyone else was freaking out about his size). Basically, I didn't consider my team to be a legit contender. I barely made the playoffs last year, and I don't think I'm setup to win next season. I figure this trade either booms, and I get two good starters, or it busts, and I end up with my own high 2011 pick and two 2nds next year. If my team were to bust next year, and I HADN'T traded Jackson, he likely would have prevented me from getting a top 3 pick in the rookie draft.

Appreciate the insight, and I agree that if you are not contending you need to sell Jackson now.I don't hate your trade at all, but it illustrates he point that it is difficult to trade these guys for more than prospects.

 

[thriftyrocker]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

 

[FUBAR]

TL;DR - Trade these guys if you can get great value, but you probably can't. keep them if you want to win now.

Who are these guys?

Tom Longo and Dante Rosario?

 

[FUBAR]

FWIW, I traded Gore for Aaron Rodgers in a 12 team league. Short term probably not a good deal, long term I love it.

I'm keeping Moss unless part of the reason for trading is to land a top pick. I traded him in one league for Santonio Holmes before all the drama.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews.

Do most Shark Pool members agree with this assessment? I ask because Gore and Jackson are both ranked in the top 15 in the latest FBG Dynasty rankings, whereas Matthews, for instance, is ranked 28, and that only because one of the staffers has him at 9 - the other three have him in the lates 30s overall in dynasty format. Are the FBG Dynasty rankings viewed as overly generous to veterans and pesssimistic about rookies?

 

[shader]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

 

[shader]

FWIW, I traded Gore for Aaron Rodgers in a 12 team league. Short term probably not a good deal, long term I love it.I'm keeping Moss unless part of the reason for trading is to land a top pick. I traded him in one league for Santonio Holmes before all the drama.

That is an incredible get for Gore. And one you might not be able to get next off-season. (Depending on league format of course)

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

TL;DR - Trade these guys if you can get great value, but you probably can't. keep them if you want to win now.

Who are these guys?

Tom Longo and Dante Rosario?

TL;DR = Too long, did not read... so it's a quick summary of a long post.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Jackson may be undervalued at this point. People are scared to death of the back, and I don't blame them. But I have him in one dynasty where I am deep at RB and looking to cash in, and I can barely get a SNIFF for him because everyone automatically assumes I am going to want more than they are willing to pay.

But when you stop and think, WHY has his value tanked so much.

Here is a guy is almost universally regarded as a supreme talent, and is one of the VERY rare birds that is a true three down back these days. He is 26 years old, basically just in or just before his prime.

Now the flip side is that he has had injuries and he is playing for an awful team. But here is the deal with that: WHILE playing for one of the worst teams with the worst offenses in history and WITH painful injury issues, he was STILL a top 10 fantasy RB. So doesn't that tell you that assuming he is healthy, it really truly can't get much worse? Basically, the guy's floor is a top 10 RB, and you can't move him.

Now he has had his back addressed. In theory, that could mean an overall IMPROVEMENT in performance, and reports have been good. Do I like that my stud RB needed back surgery? Not really, but there are definitely two ways to look at it. He wasn't fused, just cleaned up - like knees get cleaned up on a regular basis.

And the team? Well, one's thing's for sure, it isn't going to get worse, and it is at least possible that they move considerably toward the middle of the pack.

 

[shader]

Jackson may be undervalued at this point. People are scared to death of the back, and I don't blame them. But I have him in one dynasty where I am deep at RB and looking to cash in, and I can barely get a SNIFF for him because everyone automatically assumes I am going to want more than they are willing to pay.But when you stop and think, WHY has his value tanked so much.Here is a guy is almost universally regarded as a supreme talent, and is one of the VERY rare birds that is a true three down back these days. He is 26 years old, basically just in or just before his prime.Now the flip side is that he has had injuries and he is playing for an awful team. But here is the deal with that: WHILE playing for one of the worst teams with the worst offenses in history and WITH painful injury issues, he was STILL a top 10 fantasy RB. So doesn't that tell you that assuming he is healthy, it really truly can't get much worse? Basically, the guy's floor is a top 10 RB, and you can't move him.Now he has had his back addressed. In theory, that could mean an overall IMPROVEMENT in performance, and reports have been good. Do I like that my stud RB needed back surgery? Not really, but there are definitely two ways to look at it. He wasn't fused, just cleaned up - like knees get cleaned up on a regular basis.And the team? Well, one's thing's for sure, it isn't going to get worse, and it is at least possible that they move considerably toward the middle of the pack.

Nice post. Actually I'm starting to think Steven Jackson is more between buy and hold and doesn't deserve to be on my initial post. If his value has already taken the initial dive, he could be a very good steal. Risky, but one potentially worth taking. However, he's probably more of a hold. The owner probably won't give him up for too cheap since he has so much invested in him, and he isn't worth the risk of giving up anything REALLY substantial.

 

[BeTheMatch]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

This makes no sense to me. If he wins you a championship this year, he had very high value. If you're constantly selling off players that are still productive and can help you win it all now just because they're older, you greatly decrease your chances of ever winning it all. Sure, it can happen, but it's not as likely. Yes, you'll always be younger and always in contention, but if you think trading Manning and Gore right now is going to help you win it all, I just don't see it. If riding Manning and Gore off the cliff nets me a title or two before hitting bottom, I'll gladly take it. There are plenty of other ways to build for the future in dynasty leagues without selling off veteran players that are still highly productive.

 

[TheWick]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

This makes no sense to me. If he wins you a championship this year, he had very high value. If you're constantly selling off players that are still productive and can help you win it all now just because they're older, you greatly decrease your chances of ever winning it all. Sure, it can happen, but it's not as likely. Yes, you'll always be younger and always in contention, but if you think trading Manning and Gore right now is going to help you win it all, I just don't see it. If riding Manning and Gore off the cliff nets me a title or two before hitting bottom, I'll gladly take it. There are plenty of other ways to build for the future in dynasty leagues without selling off veteran players that are still highly productive.

I've been getting Favre for cheap in every dynasty league I can. If he plays he'll be top 5 in that offense....hopefully

 

[Fighting Noles]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

This makes no sense to me. If he wins you a championship this year, he had very high value. If you're constantly selling off players that are still productive and can help you win it all now just because they're older, you greatly decrease your chances of ever winning it all. Sure, it can happen, but it's not as likely. Yes, you'll always be younger and always in contention, but if you think trading Manning and Gore right now is going to help you win it all, I just don't see it. If riding Manning and Gore off the cliff nets me a title or two before hitting bottom, I'll gladly take it. There are plenty of other ways to build for the future in dynasty leagues without selling off veteran players that are still highly productive.

I've been getting Favre for cheap in every dynasty league I can. If he plays he'll be top 5 in that offense....hopefully

I agree....

 

[thriftyrocker]

If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

Manning's value now is not significantly higher than Rivers or Romo. Unless there's a tier 3 WR you really like to breakout, you are downgrading your QB for depth, which is the wrong way to go.Manning is not Elway. Donald Brown is not TD. Indy continues to build its entire offense around Manning throwing the ball.Favre will be worth a late 1st around October when somebody 6-2 loses their stud QB for the year and is looking for a short term solution. Saw Warner go for a late 1st last year when reports had already broken he was done.

 

[radballs]

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews.

Do most Shark Pool members agree with this assessment? I ask because Gore and Jackson are both ranked in the top 15 in the latest FBG Dynasty rankings, whereas Matthews, for instance, is ranked 28, and that only because one of the staffers has him at 9 - the other three have him in the lates 30s overall in dynasty format. Are the FBG Dynasty rankings viewed as overly generous to veterans and pesssimistic about rookies?

I agree with most of the staffers probably. I think a lot of dynasty participants greatly overvalue youth and rookie picks.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews.

Do most Shark Pool members agree with this assessment? I ask because Gore and Jackson are both ranked in the top 15 in the latest FBG Dynasty rankings, whereas Matthews, for instance, is ranked 28, and that only because one of the staffers has him at 9 - the other three have him in the lates 30s overall in dynasty format. Are the FBG Dynasty rankings viewed as overly generous to veterans and pesssimistic about rookies?

I agree with most of the staffers probably. I think a lot of dynasty participants greatly overvalue youth and rookie picks.

I agree that youth is overvalued and the Gores of the world are undervalued. So I'll just happily ride Gore until the wheels fall off.I also agree that Jackson is becoming a buy low. The cost will only be truly low from a nervous owner... otherwise a savvy owner won't sell low.

 

[B. Nugget]

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews.

Do most Shark Pool members agree with this assessment? I ask because Gore and Jackson are both ranked in the top 15 in the latest FBG Dynasty rankings, whereas Matthews, for instance, is ranked 28, and that only because one of the staffers has him at 9 - the other three have him in the lates 30s overall in dynasty format. Are the FBG Dynasty rankings viewed as overly generous to veterans and pesssimistic about rookies?

I agree with most of the staffers probably. I think a lot of dynasty participants greatly overvalue youth and rookie picks.

I agree that youth is overvalued and the Gores of the world are undervalued. So I'll just happily ride Gore until the wheels fall off.I also agree that Jackson is becoming a buy low. The cost will only be truly low from a nervous owner... otherwise a savvy owner won't sell low.

I had an owner say that he wouldn't move SJAX for less than 1.02 and 1.03, so it is no surprise that he still has SJAX.

 

[monkeysee]

Does Michael Turner fall into the trade now category? 29 next season right? Can he still be traded for max value? In a league that I am very deep at RB position I traded him for an early (likely 1 or 2 2011 rookie pick). Or does he fall into the low mileage category and I traded him a bit early?

 

[Buckna]

Gore and Jackson? You won't get much more than a middling prospect or future picks. You might get a Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, but you won't get Matthews.

Do most Shark Pool members agree with this assessment? I ask because Gore and Jackson are both ranked in the top 15 in the latest FBG Dynasty rankings, whereas Matthews, for instance, is ranked 28, and that only because one of the staffers has him at 9 - the other three have him in the lates 30s overall in dynasty format. Are the FBG Dynasty rankings viewed as overly generous to veterans and pesssimistic about rookies?

I agree with most of the staffers probably. I think a lot of dynasty participants greatly overvalue youth and rookie picks.

I think a lot of the disparity is the rankings are more like an initial draft as opposed to an existing league. Most of the teams drafting the Spillers & Bests likely earned those picks by being terrible and in the middle of a rebuild. A guy rebuilding is not going to trade his potential young stud for an older, established stud if he has little else on his team to make him competitive.FWIW, I think the Gore's & SJax of the world are buy lows for competitive teams, 2-3 years of possibly top production for cheap right now. I easily trade away the Felix Joneses, Moreno's, (even a Wells or a Greene if it's PPR) to acquire one of these guys. I've seen Turner traded for very cheap as well in some leagues.

 

[GroveDiesel]

There's a difference between trade value and roster value IMO. Roster value is more important but downplayed too often in dynasty formats I believe. Yeah, Peyton Manning will probably never again have the trade value that he currently has. How many stud veterans do you actually think will have an INCREASE in trade value next year? The odds are that most won't have any, if much, just because they're a year older.

But their value on your roster is still high. Does anyone really believe that Manning isn't likely to keep putting up top 5 QB numbers over the next 3 years barring some freak injury? So why would you want to trade him away?

Way too many dynasty/keeper guys get caught up in the youth movement. They're always playing for the future. If you're always playing for the future, you'll never win in the present.

IMO, the more important guys to try to trade before their value goes off a cliff are guys in that 2nd tier. Chad Ochocinco had a great year last year. Now is the perfect time to trade him. He still has some value, but at age 32 is prime for a total collapse. The odds of a younger middle tier guy or a rookie making a jump and putting up stats close to his now and more than his going forward are higher than him helping you win this year.

I'd say Moss is a good one. McNabb is one at QB I'd be looking to move. McGahee might get you some value. If you can get value for S-Jax I'd do it, but I tend to think that he might be worth more on your roster than in a trade. Donald Driver may get you some kind of return too.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

So if I understand you correctly, if I approach you and tell you that my perception of Manning is that he's getting old, his value instantly drops and you will more readily trade him to me so I get to have him for his next 3-5 great years as a top 5 QB.Last I checked, having a great QB gets you more championships in dynasty or re-draft than does trading him away before his price ever drops...that is, unless your league determines it's champion differently than my league does.

 

[Mr.Underhill]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

The red statement is troubling to me. Future points mean everything...that's why you are trying to trade for a young stud instead of a young dud. You know, studs score more points than duds.I understand completely that you want to move a guy before he starts his decline...but it makes no sense to move a guy who by your own speculation is likely to have 3-5 great years still ahead of him. 3-5 years is a dynasty in dynasty. If you think Manning has that left in him, you hold him...or you acquire him now from the sucker who's trading him for cheaper now.

The blue statement is even worse. Favre's dynasty value isn't great because he might not play this year or ever again! To use that example as evidence of why should move a guy who has 3-5 great years left is just crazy talk. They aren't remotely the same situation.

The trick is to trade the guy away just before he starts to drop off, not 3-5 years before he drops off. Geez, 3-5 years is a career in the NFL.

 

[eraclansing]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

The red statement is troubling to me. Future points mean everything...that's why you are trying to trade for a young stud instead of a young dud. You know, studs score more points than duds.I understand completely that you want to move a guy before he starts his decline...but it makes no sense to move a guy who by your own speculation is likely to have 3-5 great years still ahead of him. 3-5 years is a dynasty in dynasty. If you think Manning has that left in him, you hold him...or you acquire him now from the sucker who's trading him for cheaper now.

The blue statement is even worse. Favre's dynasty value isn't great because he might not play this year or ever again! To use that example as evidence of why should move a guy who has 3-5 great years left is just crazy talk. They aren't remotely the same situation.

The trick is to trade the guy away just before he starts to drop off, not 3-5 years before he drops off. Geez, 3-5 years is a career in the NFL.

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:

Midseason Transaction -

Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pick

for

Received: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen Daniels

Offseason Moves:

Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex Smith

Received: Lesean McCoy

Gave up: Michael Turner

Received: Desean Jackson

Not only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

 

[IndyHavoc]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

The red statement is troubling to me. Future points mean everything...that's why you are trying to trade for a young stud instead of a young dud. You know, studs score more points than duds.I understand completely that you want to move a guy before he starts his decline...but it makes no sense to move a guy who by your own speculation is likely to have 3-5 great years still ahead of him. 3-5 years is a dynasty in dynasty. If you think Manning has that left in him, you hold him...or you acquire him now from the sucker who's trading him for cheaper now.

The blue statement is even worse. Favre's dynasty value isn't great because he might not play this year or ever again! To use that example as evidence of why should move a guy who has 3-5 great years left is just crazy talk. They aren't remotely the same situation.

The trick is to trade the guy away just before he starts to drop off, not 3-5 years before he drops off. Geez, 3-5 years is a career in the NFL.

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:

Midseason Transaction -

Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pick

for

Received: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen Daniels

Offseason Moves:

Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex Smith

Received: Lesean McCoy

Gave up: Michael Turner

Received: Desean Jackson

Not only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:Midseason Transaction - Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pickforReceived: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen DanielsOffseason Moves:Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex SmithReceived: Lesean McCoyGave up: Michael TurnerReceived: Desean JacksonNot only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

Except he also got Nicks and Daniels, then turned Daniels into McCoy.He wasn't going to compete for the next two seasons anyway, so these future-oriented moves were very good, imo. YOU may not like Cutler, but many people will disagree with you. He is a polarizing fantasy player, but well worth the risk, imo, especially considering the other players involved.

 

[karmarooster]

3. Randy Moss. I realize Moss' value has already fallen quite a bit. However, he still could put up a great season this year, and you still have owners who love the guy. He was a top 5 WR last year, so he should still command a pretty hefty price-tag. The problem with Moss is that I have a feeling that he might already have the "perception" of being old, despite the fact that he was a top 5 WR last year. You might make your team worse in 2010 if you trade Moss for a young guy that doesn't perform as well as Randy this year...but look no further than Terrell Owens to see how quickly an older WR can fall flat on his face, and Owens' work ethic has always been better than Moss.

Regarding Moss, I actually made a pair of moves to acquire him this offseason. After having finished last year leading the league in points, i lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs after a bye. As a contender, I see Moss as a cheap top 10 WR good for one year, and probably only one year.I trade Mike Wallace after the Santonio trade for 1.06, then flipped that for and Schilens for Moss. I understand it's a bit of a long term gamble, as Wallace and Schilens could develop into decent WR2 types, but they'll never have the ceiling that Moss has this year. And I'd estimate there's maybe a 25% chance he comes back to the patriots in 2011. Even in the past two seasons - 1 with Cassell and 1 out of sync with Brady - he's averaged 76/1100/12. As my WR2, that is awesome. That 1.06 would've turned into Ben Tate. All of these guys.... Wallace, Schilens, Tate.... they are backups or low end starters even under the best circumstances. My point is that not only perspective (contender vs. rebuilding) but team make up determine whether or not a player is a "sell."The perception around my league that Moss is getting old and cranky and probably has 1 more year before he really falls off a cliff. As such I was able to get him cheaply. And I fully understand that after this season I'll be the sucker left holding Moss when his value goes from little to zero. Thats fine with me if he helps me win the league this year.

 

[eraclansing]

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:Midseason Transaction - Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pickforReceived: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen DanielsOffseason Moves:Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex SmithReceived: Lesean McCoyGave up: Michael TurnerReceived: Desean JacksonNot only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

Except he also got Nicks and Daniels, then turned Daniels into McCoy.He wasn't going to compete for the next two seasons anyway, so these future-oriented moves were very good, imo. YOU may not like Cutler, but many people will disagree with you. He is a polarizing fantasy player, but well worth the risk, imo, especially considering the other players involved.

Before I made the Manning trade, my best receiver was friggin Devery Henderson and Michael Turner was my only good running back (others were Lynch, Jacobs,Snelling). My TE at the time was Daniel Fells STL! Now I have Nicks and Desean as WR's to build around and my running backs are Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy. I'm really weak at TE but I drafted Hernandez and Jimmy Graham so hopefully one of those guys will pan out. Cutler was a top 5 qb 2 yrs. ago w/ Denver so I felt that the move was worth the risk in order to upgrade my roster at WR/TE.

 

[r0llin_game]

PPR Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flex

Got: Dwayne Bowe, LeSean McCoy

Gave: Stephen Jackson

 

[eraclansing]

PPR Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flexGot: Dwayne Bowe, LeSean McCoyGave: Stephen Jackson

On a rebuilding team I would do that trade in a heartbeat. In turn, I would try to trade Bowe b/c he burned me last year in redraft and I'm officially done with him.

 

[greggorymac]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

I understand you're rational about perception and cashing in on that perception before a player is past his prime, but we're not talking about rather disposable running backs here. You're assessment of Peyton Manning however is off, that is a player that you do not sell.

 

[greggorymac]

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:Midseason Transaction - Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pickforReceived: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen DanielsOffseason Moves:Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex SmithReceived: Lesean McCoyGave up: Michael TurnerReceived: Desean JacksonNot only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

Except he also got Nicks and Daniels, then turned Daniels into McCoy.He wasn't going to compete for the next two seasons anyway, so these future-oriented moves were very good, imo. YOU may not like Cutler, but many people will disagree with you. He is a polarizing fantasy player, but well worth the risk, imo, especially considering the other players involved.

Before I made the Manning trade, my best receiver was friggin Devery Henderson and Michael Turner was my only good running back (others were Lynch, Jacobs,Snelling). My TE at the time was Daniel Fells STL! Now I have Nicks and Desean as WR's to build around and my running backs are Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy. I'm really weak at TE but I drafted Hernandez and Jimmy Graham so hopefully one of those guys will pan out. Cutler was a top 5 qb 2 yrs. ago w/ Denver so I felt that the move was worth the risk in order to upgrade my roster at WR/TE.

Horrible trade. You should have kept Manning and Turner. You would be much better off. If you said today, I had to keep the same guys over the next 3 years, I would much rather have Manning and Turner over Cutler, McCoy and Desean Jackson.

 

[gianmarco]

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:Midseason Transaction - Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pickforReceived: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen DanielsOffseason Moves:Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex SmithReceived: Lesean McCoyGave up: Michael TurnerReceived: Desean JacksonNot only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

Except he also got Nicks and Daniels, then turned Daniels into McCoy.He wasn't going to compete for the next two seasons anyway, so these future-oriented moves were very good, imo. YOU may not like Cutler, but many people will disagree with you. He is a polarizing fantasy player, but well worth the risk, imo, especially considering the other players involved.

Before I made the Manning trade, my best receiver was friggin Devery Henderson and Michael Turner was my only good running back (others were Lynch, Jacobs,Snelling). My TE at the time was Daniel Fells STL! Now I have Nicks and Desean as WR's to build around and my running backs are Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy. I'm really weak at TE but I drafted Hernandez and Jimmy Graham so hopefully one of those guys will pan out. Cutler was a top 5 qb 2 yrs. ago w/ Denver so I felt that the move was worth the risk in order to upgrade my roster at WR/TE.

Horrible trade. You should have kept Manning and Turner. You would be much better off. If you said today, I had to keep the same guys over the next 3 years, I would much rather have Manning and Turner over Cutler, McCoy and Desean Jackson.

Forgetting Nicks as well?

 

[r0llin_game]

PPR Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, RB/WR/TE flexGot: Dwayne Bowe, LeSean McCoyGave: Stephen Jackson

On a rebuilding team I would do that trade in a heartbeat. In turn, I would try to trade Bowe b/c he burned me last year in redraft and I'm officially done with him.

My team is not really rebuilding, just need some WR depth. Lost in the title game last season.

 

[eraclansing]

Horrible trade. You should have kept Manning and Turner. You would be much better off. If you said today, I had to keep the same guys over the next 3 years, I would much rather have Manning and Turner over Cutler, McCoy and Desean Jackson.

If I kept Manning and Turner, my best receiver right now would be Dez Bryant (or whoever I traded for the 1.1) and then a bunch of garbage. Also, my best RB outside of Turner would be an aging and ineffective Brandon Jacobs. My tight end would be Daniel Fells. In my opinion, I had to make the trade b/c by the time I built my team up through the draft Turner would be too old to contribute and Manning would be on his last leg. Now I have a shot at competing after one more good draft. In my leauge's scoring system, Cutler finished ahead of Manning in 2008 so who's to say that he can't or won't accomplish that feat again. Plus, Martz Qb's have historically done very well and throw a ton of passes.

 

[pghrob]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

This makes no sense to me. If he wins you a championship this year, he had very high value. If you're constantly selling off players that are still productive and can help you win it all now just because they're older, you greatly decrease your chances of ever winning it all. Sure, it can happen, but it's not as likely. Yes, you'll always be younger and always in contention, but if you think trading Manning and Gore right now is going to help you win it all, I just don't see it. If riding Manning and Gore off the cliff nets me a title or two before hitting bottom, I'll gladly take it. There are plenty of other ways to build for the future in dynasty leagues without selling off veteran players that are still highly productive.

Herein lies the issue: compete now with aged fantasy players who are rapidly losing dynasty value now, or try to trade them for any value you can still get and miss out on competing for a championship.Favre is the perfect example. So is TE Tony Gonzalez. I have Tony G. and J. Finley with both A. Hernandez and Jimmy Graham. I can't tell you how many back and forth thoughts I have had about whether or not I should try to package Tony G. to upgrade my team somewhere else or plug him in my lineup this year and try to win. With there being more viable TE's than ever, finding a market for a player like Tony G. is tough. More and more, I am thinking I can't get a value that matches how he can contribute this year, but the fact that I have Finley sort of diminishes that too. I think dynasty owners of Tony G. are all in a bind with whether or not to trade him or ride out his career with him still being a top producer.

 

[Garts]

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:Midseason Transaction - Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pickforReceived: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen DanielsOffseason Moves:Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex SmithReceived: Lesean McCoyGave up: Michael TurnerReceived: Desean JacksonNot only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

And now you'll have to wait probably 2 more seasons for Cutler to "get" Martz system and the Bears acquire the weapons to run it....or they cut bait and it's back to square 1 again for Cutler. So, for 2-3 more years you're going to be giving up 3-8 ppg to your opposition at the spot. /shrug. Doesn't seem like a net loss or win to me.

Except he also got Nicks and Daniels, then turned Daniels into McCoy.He wasn't going to compete for the next two seasons anyway, so these future-oriented moves were very good, imo. YOU may not like Cutler, but many people will disagree with you. He is a polarizing fantasy player, but well worth the risk, imo, especially considering the other players involved.

Before I made the Manning trade, my best receiver was friggin Devery Henderson and Michael Turner was my only good running back (others were Lynch, Jacobs,Snelling). My TE at the time was Daniel Fells STL! Now I have Nicks and Desean as WR's to build around and my running backs are Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy. I'm really weak at TE but I drafted Hernandez and Jimmy Graham so hopefully one of those guys will pan out. Cutler was a top 5 qb 2 yrs. ago w/ Denver so I felt that the move was worth the risk in order to upgrade my roster at WR/TE.

Horrible trade. You should have kept Manning and Turner. You would be much better off. If you said today, I had to keep the same guys over the next 3 years, I would much rather have Manning and Turner over Cutler, McCoy and Desean Jackson.

 

[Thomsen]

LeSean McCoy is not very good! Profootballfocus rates him as one of the worst RBs in the league. Out of 63, he's 54th. Don't expect his situation to warrant automatic production. He's a very good sell.

 

[shader]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

This makes no sense to me. If he wins you a championship this year, he had very high value. If you're constantly selling off players that are still productive and can help you win it all now just because they're older, you greatly decrease your chances of ever winning it all. Sure, it can happen, but it's not as likely. Yes, you'll always be younger and always in contention, but if you think trading Manning and Gore right now is going to help you win it all, I just don't see it. If riding Manning and Gore off the cliff nets me a title or two before hitting bottom, I'll gladly take it. There are plenty of other ways to build for the future in dynasty leagues without selling off veteran players that are still highly productive.

My point is this..in a startup dynasty draft, Favre will go pretty low, even though he could potentially be a top 5 QB. But no one would ever trade much for him because whoever is left holding the bag gets a big fat nothing for Favre.In dynasty formats, I don't like to be the guy holding an aged vet and having him drop to zero, IF I SPENT ALOT FOR HIM. If you got Favre on the cheap, than yeah, try to win a championship with him. But his overall value is way down from a dynasty perspective.

 

[Sabertooth]

A couple of things:First of all, if a player is on this list, I don't think they are going to have a poor 2010. So this list is virtually meaningless for re-draft leagues.The point of this thread is to highlight players who are still highly thought of, but that you better trade before the oncoming "old age" train hits them right in the eyes.Guys that are studs (Reggie Wayne) one year, fall off a cliff value-wise the next year. If you sold Reggie Wayne LAST off-season, you could have gotten quite a bit for him. Try selling him THIS off-season and see what happens.1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon. 2. At running back, the only 2 I see that apply are Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. I'd be looking to sell both. I fear it's too late for Jackson though. You MIGHT get lucky with selling Gore. You'll need a fast start from Gore. If you get it, I'd sell into that start HARD. 3. Randy Moss. I realize Moss' value has already fallen quite a bit. However, he still could put up a great season this year, and you still have owners who love the guy. He was a top 5 WR last year, so he should still command a pretty hefty price-tag. The problem with Moss is that I have a feeling that he might already have the "perception" of being old, despite the fact that he was a top 5 WR last year. You might make your team worse in 2010 if you trade Moss for a young guy that doesn't perform as well as Randy this year...but look no further than Terrell Owens to see how quickly an older WR can fall flat on his face, and Owens' work ethic has always been better than Moss.Now on the flip side, are players whose values have ALREADY fallen, and who in reality can be had for cheap. Reggie Wayne is the prime example. You can pick him up for much cheaper than last off-season and the reality is that he's still probably a top 5 WR. Any thoughts suggestions or additions would be appreciated

So you want to sell Manning because Marino fell off? I think Manning is more akin for Favre. You say the ship sailed on Sjax when he's 26 years old? Wow.Randy Moss by you own admission has lost value and you want to sell him now? Randy Moss is a Hall of Fame talent and he's going to be effective as long as he's motivated. More akin to Rice than Owens.Terrible posting.

 

[shader]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

The red statement is troubling to me. Future points mean everything...that's why you are trying to trade for a young stud instead of a young dud. You know, studs score more points than duds.I understand completely that you want to move a guy before he starts his decline...but it makes no sense to move a guy who by your own speculation is likely to have 3-5 great years still ahead of him. 3-5 years is a dynasty in dynasty. If you think Manning has that left in him, you hold him...or you acquire him now from the sucker who's trading him for cheaper now.

The blue statement is even worse. Favre's dynasty value isn't great because he might not play this year or ever again! To use that example as evidence of why should move a guy who has 3-5 great years left is just crazy talk. They aren't remotely the same situation.

The trick is to trade the guy away just before he starts to drop off, not 3-5 years before he drops off. Geez, 3-5 years is a career in the NFL.

Did you even read the rest of my statement? I said he'd be a great NFL QB, but that his numbers are going to start dropping soon. Now maybe he'll buck the trend and be a top 3 QB until he's 40. If you believe that, then don't trade him.I personally believe he's about to start edging downward. The point is that once that slip starts happening and it becomes noticeable, it's already too late. Your top 3 QB will be a top 5 QB, then a top 10 QB, then a top 15 QB, then out of the league. If you want to ride that out, be my guest.

Of course the flip side is what you can actually get in a trade offer. I'm not saying to trade Peyton no matter what. But if someone is willing to give up alot because they really want Peyton, now is the time to pull the trigger. If you can't get a good offer, then yeah it makes no sense to let him go for peanuts. But I tend to think you could probably get alot for him right now.

Peyton was the one I knew would be controversial, but that's exactly why now is the reason to trade him. He's at a historical decline level, and no one thinks it's going to happen. You guys think he's going to put up superstud numbers for the next 5 years and then retire. I think his numbers are going to slowly diminish. I may be wrong, but if I get a great trade, then I still win.

And the Favre comment just shows you really have no idea what I'm talking about. Which is fine by me.

 

[shader]

1. Peyton Manning--Here's the thing about Peyton. He's probably going to be great for another 3-5 years as an NFL QB. But from a fantasy perspective, he's bound to slow down eventually. Dan Marino was a gunslinger who also had a career year at age 33. But after that season, his numbers went down pretty dramatically. Remember what we're trying to do is avoid selling him too late. All it takes is the "perception" in your league-mates eyes that Peyton is old, and his value instantly drops. This might be the last off-season in which you have the potential to get a "king's ransom" for Peyton and it might not. He might put up a 5,000 yard season. But his time is coming soon.

Hardcore disagree. If he's going to be great for another 5 years, there's no reason to sell. He's about to sign a 4 or 5 year extension. He will continue to start every game. He will continue to retain value until his farewell tour (Favre and Warner had value last year, especially up against the trade deadline when teams looked for stretch run upgrades).

What his future stats are means very little. What matters is his "perception" among the rest of your league-mates, because as soon as he gets the label of "old" QB, his value is going to plummet immediately.If you are content to own him until he retires, than the above doesn't apply to you. But if I'm looking to get out while I can use Peyton to get me a younger stud QB and maybe something else.....then you need to bail out right now.

A 5 year extension is meaningless. John Elway won 2 super bowls at the end of his career. But from a fantasy standpoint, he wasn't as good those two years as he was earlier in his career.

Brett Favre could potentially win someone a championship this year. But what is his dynasty value? Not very high.

The red statement is troubling to me. Future points mean everything...that's why you are trying to trade for a young stud instead of a young dud. You know, studs score more points than duds.I understand completely that you want to move a guy before he starts his decline...but it makes no sense to move a guy who by your own speculation is likely to have 3-5 great years still ahead of him. 3-5 years is a dynasty in dynasty. If you think Manning has that left in him, you hold him...or you acquire him now from the sucker who's trading him for cheaper now.

The blue statement is even worse. Favre's dynasty value isn't great because he might not play this year or ever again! To use that example as evidence of why should move a guy who has 3-5 great years left is just crazy talk. They aren't remotely the same situation.

The trick is to trade the guy away just before he starts to drop off, not 3-5 years before he drops off. Geez, 3-5 years is a career in the NFL.

.When I took over my team halfway through this year my only elite players were Peyton Manning and Michael Turner. Being that I was a few years away from competing, I felt I had to move both these guys to start turning over my roster. Here are the trades that I made:

Midseason Transaction -

Gave up: Peyton Manning, Jacoby Jones, and a 4th round pick

for

Received: Jay Cutler, Hakeem Nicks, Owen Daniels

Offseason Moves:

Gave up: Owen Daniels, Alex Smith

Received: Lesean McCoy

Gave up: Michael Turner

Received: Desean Jackson

Not only was I able to turn over my roster, but trading away Manning during the season allowed me to finish last place in the league w/o having to tank and I ended up getting the first pick in each round of the rookie draft.

EXACTLY. Some of the guys are acting as if you should always be able to win a championship every year. That's just not reasonable. Some years, your team just doesn't have what it takes. If you have a superstar like Peyton and you have a middle of the road/below average team, then you need to trade him.You did that, gave yourself a bright future, all at the cost of your 2009 season, which wasn't going anywhere anyway.

Nice job and exactly the point.