2011 Off-Season: Buy Low/Sell High (Dynasty) (1 Viewer)

[The Berry Man]

Looking for who people are trying to acquire this off-season or trying to sell off.

Just a few I'm thinking of:

Buy Low

1. DeAngello Williams - Nobody really expects him to stay in CAR, and there's a stink on him right now for his injury-riddled 2010. Fact is though, once Williams signs with whatever new team he's going to sign with, the buzz will likely increase his value. The beauty here is if you are not a Williams believer, you can actually wait a bit, and then sell sorta high when he gets his new team. If you are a Williams believer, and I am, I think now is a good time to send out an offer.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - Just from looking around some trades posted in the trade thread in the SP, I can see that people are starting to under-value Fitzgerald, obviously because of the QB situation. That's a mistake as he's a top talent. You will still have to give up a ton for him most likely, but last year he probably would've been untouchable. "Low" is relative.

3. Josh Freeman - Just a feeling, but I think he's going to take a big step next year. People are feeling pretty positive about him after this past season, but again, "low" is a relative term, and I expect Freeman will be a QB1 this time next year, so even paying extra for him now is a good move.

4. Kevin Kolb - He's too good and quarterbacks in this league are too bad for him to stay a backup forever. Definitely a nice time to pick him up, especially in QB deep leagues (16 teams, 2 QB, etc.).

I'll post more later, pretty much just interested in getting the conversation going. Who are your guys?

 

[todisco1]

Michael Bush has a legit shot at being a bellcow if he leaves the Raiders via free agency. I really like him if he ends up on a RB needy team.

I like the Josh Freeman pick, and I'd add A. Benn to the buy low category - his injury may scare some owners and it could lower his price. I really think he's going to end up being a big part of that offense in the next year or so. He took longer to pick things up but he has plenty of potential.

Shonne Green -- Maybe. Doesn't catch the ball so in ppr he's not worth as much, but I think he'll see the ball a lot more next season.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

RB:

Montario Hardesty

Felix Jones

Knowshon Moreno

Mike Goodson

Chris Wells

Jonathan Stewart

WR:

Michael Crabtree

Jerome Simpson

Larry Fitzgerald

Donnie Avery

Brandon Marshall

TE:

Dallas Clark

Travis Beckum

 

[Boston]

Some Potential buy-lows:

Austin Collie-Obviously the injuries are a major concern (which is why you may be able to buy him low) but he really looked good when he wasn't knocked out this year.

Pierre Thomas-Was MIA in 2010 and his owner probably has a bad taste in his mouth about it.

Tashard Choice-If given the opportunity he looks like he could be a productive back.

Mark Clayton-Appeared to be on the verge of a solid season...could probably be had for the minimum.

Rob Gronkowski-Hernandez being there is a concern but that maybe why he can be picked-up...this kid has a chance to be a real monster...Brady is very comfortable with him.

Mathew Stafford-Needs to stay on the field but it looks like there's legit talent there (as well as Calvin Johnson).

Brandon Pettigrew-Looks like he has a chance to be a very solid TE1.

Ronnie Brown-It's a roll of the dice that maybe he lands in a real nice spot and can stay healthy (a big if).

 

[Yellow Line is Unoffcial]

Some Potential buy-lows:Austin Collie-Obviously the injuries are a major concern (which is why you may be able to buy him low) but he really looked good when he wasn't knocked out this year.Pierre Thomas-Was MIA in 2010 and his owner probably has a bad taste in his mouth about it.Tashard Choice-If given the opportunity he looks like he could be a productive back.Mark Clayton-Appeared to be on the verge of a solid season...could probably be had for the minimum.Rob Gronkowski-Hernandez being there is a concern but that maybe why he can be picked-up...this kid has a chance to be a real monster...Brady is very comfortable with him.Mathew Stafford-Needs to stay on the field but it looks like there's legit talent there (as well as Calvin Johnson).Brandon Pettigrew-Looks like he has a chance to be a very solid TE1.Ronnie Brown-It's a roll of the dice that maybe he lands in a real nice spot and can stay healthy (a big if).

Nice list.

 

[Concept Coop]

I like the list, but nobody is buying Freeman low. Honestly, I think now is a time to sell high, then invest in another young QB, like Ryan, who could be had for less.

He is being traded for guys like Fitzgerald and Austin and went before Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Ben Roethlisberger in a startup I am doing right now.

 

[Concept Coop]

Matt Schaub

Joeseph Addai

Ronnie Brown

Brian Robiskie

Michael Crabtree

Sidney Rice

Owen Daniels

 

[The Berry Man]

Pierre Thomas is a good one. If he stays in NOS and Bush leaves, he'll get a spike in value. If he goes somewhere else, that will most likely be an improvement for him. He's someone I might wait for the wave and then sell, though.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?

Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them).

Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

 

[The Berry Man]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

 

[travdogg]

Buy-lows

QB:

Joe Flacco: He doesn't get the credit he deserves for some reason. He's been every bit the QB Matt Ryan has, and I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Ryan. If the Ravens can get their hands on a deep threat(not even an elite guy, just somebody better than Mason) its not difficult to see Flacco being a guy who could be a sneaky top-5 QB.

Josh Freeman: Doesn't sound like I'm the only one on this bandwagon, but he's clearly seperated himself from his 09' draftmates, and has as much upside as any young QB in the league. If all that young talent in Tampa keeps maturing, Freeman could be a fixture in QB1 status for years to come. Plus, he's a very good runner, and was unlucky to not have a rushing score this year with as often as he runs. I'd call that a fluke, and argue he's as likely to run for 5 TD's as he is for 0 again.

Tim Tebow: He's kind of like Freeman only a little less proven and a little more reliant upon his legs. Perfect QB2 to have, with a few breaks its not tough to see Tebow being a top-10 QB as soon as next season. Hopefully, John Fox doesn't stifle him, but lets not forget that Delhomme had some pretty big years under Fox, and he didn't add anywhere near the rushing value that Tebow does.

RB:

Chris Johnson: People are a little worried about the Titans. CJ isn't a buy-low so much as a buy if available, because, unless you are offering a goldmine, he shouldn't be available. As far as I'm concerned, he's still the Grade A, #1 player in all of fantasy football. I think 2010 represents his floor more than 2009 being an abberation. As Kenny Britt develops into a legit top notch WR, that will only open up even more space for Johnson to run through.

Jahvid Best: He probably shouldn't have been playing most of this year, but he still showed what he was capable of at least once this season. He's going to be a reception machine. I don't think 70 catches is unrealistic at all, and he can take it the distance at any time. I'm kinda envisioning a LeSean McCoy like 2nd year breakout, and much like McCoy, its better to act now, than wait until it all ready begins.

Beanie Wells: Does anyone else get a Darren McFadden vibe off of him? I feel like if Wells can stay healthy, he's got top-10 upside, and like the Raiders a year ago, the Cardinals offense has nowhere to go but up. Now, he's not the pass catcher McFadden is, but he's also not going to be pulled at the stripe either.

WR:

Dez Bryant: He's going to be tough to pry from owners, but he's as talented as any WR not named Johnson. He looked unstoppable at times this year, and he barely even knew the plays according to some reports. He was also the league's best punt returner this side of Devin Hester, which serves to remind you that he is a very dangerous threat after the catch, in addition to being a jump ball monster too.

Kenny Britt: I really think people are going to be undervaluing the Titans, and Britt is their 2nd best weapon. He put up some really big numbers this year despite getting little help from other WR's or his QB. As he matures(hopefully on and off the field) he's going to really become a top threat. My bold prediction is that by the end of next year Britt will be unanimously considered the top WR of the very loaded 2009 class.

Santonio Holmes: I still don't think he's hit his peak yet. It took almost no time at all to become the Jets #1 WR, and I'm about 90% certain they'll retain him. He's got some risk to him, but he's got high-end WR2 upside, that a lot of people don't seem to believe in due to either not believing in the Jets play calling or Mark Sanchez.

TE:

Dustin Keller: He just needs more cosnsitent targets, and there is no reason to think that he won't get them, especially since he's arguably the biggest mismatch they have going for them ,a dn at some point they'll be forced(or will look to) take the kid gloves off of Sanchez. He's got top-5 upside at top-15 prices at the moment.

Brandon Pettigrew: Arguably played better without Stafford, but that was a small sample size with him, and is quite possible it'll happen again. He has a Jason Witten look to him in that he isn't fast or elusive, but he sure seems to be open constantly. plus, he's an outstanding blocker so he'll rarely be off the field. Also, let's not forget that he had ACL surgery and came came an excelled immediately.

Jermaine Gresham: TO is gone and Ocho could/should follow, someone is going to have to step up, and the Bengals have long wanted a TE to be a major part of the passing game. Gresham is more a flire than a sure thing, but I could see a Marcedes Lewis like breakout for him, and it wouldn't shock me if more than Simpson, Shipley or a rookie, that Gresham became the Bengals top receving weapon.

Sell-high

QB:

Matt Ryan: I just don't think his upside is much higher than he's playing right now. He's a got a top-5 WR in his prime and that's pretty much it right now. The next best palyers on the offense(turner, Gonzalez) are both in decline and the Falcons could have issues replacing both of them. i just don't think Ryan is worth any more than a group of other young QB's. In Fact, I'd take all 3 of my buy-low guys over him without even a second thought.

Sam Bradford: Looks to me like a classic case of good looking rookie being overvalued with the expectation that he'll have a huge breakout soon. I don't hate Bradford by any means, I just don't have the same optimism as most do. A rebuilder in every league will overpay for guys like this all the time.

Eli Manning: By now, we know what Eli is, and what that is, is a mediocre QB2, who is capable of 20 points or 5 points regardless of opponent. I'd just prefer to let someone else have a guy with almost no upside and take a flier on a potential difference maker even if I have to give up a little in the meantime.

RB:

Adrian Peterson: Now this one is tricky, I like Peterson, its more that, I just see his window getting smaller and value him less than others. I have him 5th overall behind CJ, Calvin, Foster and Charles in my rankings, and I think he's more likely to go down than up. I have nothing to support that with other than my gut, but I'll put it out there.

Knowshon Moreno: Kinda reminds me of Cadillac Williams in a lot of ways. He looks good but not great, and he seems to find new ways to be dinged up every week. Tebow could open up running lanes, but will moreno really be able to capitalize on that, its somewhat distressing that he only has 1 100-yard game and really has only had success against the Chiefs in his breif career. I just prefer someone with more explosiveness. I feel like its going to take a lot of luck for Knowshon to ever be a RB1.

Michael Turner: The end is near. The time to sell was probably during the season, but if you waited this long, now is probably the last chance if you don't wanna just ride him into the dirt. I think he's close to hitting the Larry Johnson phase of his career, and i wouldn't be shocked if the Falcons started thinking about limiting his carries or even drafting a timeshare/replacement in waiting RB this year.

WR:

Roddy White: It kinda seems like I hate the Falcons doesn't it? I just don't see them getting better from here. They are an older group and it will be tough to reload for them. White is right at that age where his value is going to take a major dip if he has even signs of a down year. Think Reggie Wayne circa 2008. White is consistent, but its hard to think 2010 wasn't his ceiling. If you can still flip him for a younger WR plus something I'd strongly consider it.

DeSean Jackson: This one is tough for me because I'm as big of an NFL fan of this guy as anyone, but, the Eagles offense isn't designed to feature anyone, and there are so many mouths to feed, and sometimes(a lot actually) Vick will take off himself and everyone else will starve, so to speak. Jackson is a fine WR2, but he's too inconsistent and injury-prone to count on as a WR1 outside of return yardage leagues. I still prefer him to Maclin, but both of them are likely WR2 types and nothing more.

Marques Colston: Just don't like him, never really have. Bad knees, not explosive, and is easy replaced when he's hurt(which is often) he has spurts where he looks like a top-10 guy, but really he's a WR3 who lulls you in, and then usually lets you down. Frankly, other than Brees, and maybe Graham, I don't want any part of any Saints.

TE:

Owen Daniels: He finished the year pretty hot and now with a full offseason to rest, he'll be back to what he was doing pre-injury right? I really don't think so. The Texans are a different offense thanks to Foster's emegence and I think daniels will be just another run of the mill TE. He's a good guy to have as a TE2, but not somebody I'd want to count on as anything more.

Marcedes Lewis: Viscenthe Shiancoe part 2? I just don't trust him whatsoever. He's big and has decent athleticism, but boy it sure seemed like on half his TD's he wasn't even covered at all. I'll pass.

Chris Cooley: Like D-Jax, he's another guy I've been high on in the past and am sorta choosing now to jump ship. I'm not sure if Mike Shanahan still has it, I'm not sure they'll solve their QB issues, I'm not sure Fred Davis won't get a bigger role, but I am sure that I'll be avoiding the Redskins for the time being unless they represent a massive value, and I doubt that'll happen.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

I hear ya. It probably is just my personal experience. The owners in my league are very adept and sniffing out the difference between a "down year" for reasons beyond a player's control vs. a genuine long term concern - be it injury, off-field issues, age, emerging depth at the position, etc.

 

[Clarence the barber]

Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them).

I agree here. Many of these guys were sold low during last season in my leagues. The new owners are going to expect to get some profit from these players before/if they deal them. Also, IME owners of players that have been in a malaise like Chris Wells already expect them to play well next season and it may be difficult to pry them loose. If this is the case then buying low isn't an option. These observations are all local to my own league though. So YMMV.I'm looking at these guys as buy low:Chris Ivory - Could end up being a feature back in NO. I'm expecting PT to leave. Bush hasn't been a major factor in this offense in a few years. Blair White - Collie is one scary game away from retirement. Wayne is aging and Gonzo is a training room warrior.Danario Alexander - Huge talent. Not much in front of him. QB who likes to throw it to him. Obvious injury risk.I think the above players can all be had for a late-1st round rookie pick and will end up being long term FF starting quality.

 

[Clarence the barber]

I like the list, but nobody is buying Freeman low. Honestly, I think now is a time to sell high, then invest in another young QB, like Ryan, who could be had for less.

I dealt Freeman for the 1.06 rookie pick in a league I have. The following week I gave a 2nd rounder for Matt Ryan. I think I'll get about the same production. Many people are on Freeman's jock. They are late to the party.

 

[Bojang0301]

Pierre Thomas STILL hasn't had a 20 carry game. He was a sell high last offseason. I would not buy him low with Bush recovering from injury and Ivory's emergence.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The following week I gave a 2nd rounder for Matt Ryan.

Results not typical.

 

[Boston]

I think one area where some owners make mistakes is they tend to look at a guy's value thru their own eyes...they may think that there's no way I would deal a guy based off of one bad/mediocre/injury-filled season. While that maybe the case another owner may really have a bad taste in their mouth from a full year of underachieving and be ripe for a deal. In many ways the best strategy is to figure out the owner that fits into that category and than determine who the buy-low candidate is on his team. At the end-of-the day the value of these buy-low candidates is going to change from league-to-league based upon their owner's tendencies/mind-set.

 

[Black&Gold]

I think one area where some owners make mistakes is they tend to look at a guy's value thru their own eyes...they may think that there's no way I would deal a guy based off of one bad/mediocre/injury-filled season. While that maybe the case another owner may really have a bad taste in their mouth from a full year of underachieving and be ripe for a deal. In many ways the best strategy is to figure out the owner that fits into that category and than determine who the buy-low candidate is on his team. At the end-of-the day the value of these buy-low candidates is going to change from league-to-league based upon their owner's tendencies/mind-set.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I only have two names to buy low.

CIN TE Jermaine Gresham -

Rookie TEs tend to start out slow and then make a dramatic leap once the light clicks on. Gresham broke every rookie Bengal TE record his first year and I feel he'll make a big leap ALA Todd Heap in his second year.

Right now he's currently listed around #16 in the early fantasy rankings but I think he will be a top 7-8 fantasy TE by the end of next year providing we have an NFL season.

OAK WR Jacoby Ford -

We know about his blazing speed but he also has explosion off the LOS which makes tight coverage diffcult. He also has smooth exceleration once he gets the ball in his hands to provide decent YAC numbers. And he's tough going over the middle.

The cherry on top is that he plays in Oakland and they value his skills and none of the other 'burners' that Al Davis has drafted over the years has stepped up like Ford has, not even DHB.

Currently Ford is listed far down on many fantasy lists so he's a bargain IMHO.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

Thank you... I will also say Brandon Marshall has nowhere near the value he did last year.If he does in your league then thats just a stubborn owner who probably overpaid for him in the first place. Not to say he doesnt have value but as the guy I quoted stated...not even close to last year.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

I hear ya. It probably is just my personal experience. The owners in my league are very adept and sniffing out the difference between a "down year" for reasons beyond a player's control vs. a genuine long term concern - be it injury, off-field issues, age, emerging depth at the position, etc.

Could you get anymore arrogant? Get over yourself.

 

[Spike]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

I hear ya. It probably is just my personal experience. The owners in my league are very adept and sniffing out the difference between a "down year" for reasons beyond a player's control vs. a genuine long term concern - be it injury, off-field issues, age, emerging depth at the position, etc.

Could you get anymore arrogant? Get over yourself.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Perfect example of what is wrong with Internet forums, this was rude and not called for.

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

I hear ya. It probably is just my personal experience. The owners in my league are very adept and sniffing out the difference between a "down year" for reasons beyond a player's control vs. a genuine long term concern - be it injury, off-field issues, age, emerging depth at the position, etc.

Could you get anymore arrogant? Get over yourself.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Perfect example of what is wrong with Internet forums, this was rude and not called for.

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I have two comments on this.1) I don't think you can make judgments on value based on just one league. It may be that, as you mentioned, you just play in a league where owners are more stubborn when it comes to how they value their players (right or wrong). A fantasy player is, in many ways, like a stock. DeAngello Williams was worth $100 last year, right now he might be worth $75 in a hypothetical "open" market that takes into consideration value over a ton of leagues. Whether or not an owner is willing to "realize" the $25 loss is up to each owner and what each owner thinks is going to happen moving forward. Maybe some think he'll be worth $100 again soon. Maybe some have always thought he was worth $150. Maybe some are worried it will go below $75 and are okay to sell at that price. As with all of these discussions, none of the opinions are meant to apply to every league. Check out the 2011 off-season trades, you'll vomit on your shoes after you see some of the trades Fitzgerald has been moved in. I got Williams at the end of last year for a deal that was centered around Lance Briggs in what I would call a pretty competetive league. It happens.2) Just want to reiterate, that buying "low" is always relative. No one is expecting to get Fitzgerald at WR2 prices, but maybe you can get him at normal WR1 prices whereas last year he was WR1+++.

I hear ya. It probably is just my personal experience. The owners in my league are very adept and sniffing out the difference between a "down year" for reasons beyond a player's control vs. a genuine long term concern - be it injury, off-field issues, age, emerging depth at the position, etc.

Could you get anymore arrogant? Get over yourself.

well, read the whole thing....In his statement he basically said that anyone who put certain players are idiots.Then, he goes on to tell everyone how intelligent his league mates are compared to everyone else. I found that a bit condescending and arrogant.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Maybe I'm just a disenfranchised dynasty owner, but does anyone else have a hard time believing most of the names on this list?Fitzgerald. Marshall. Schaub. Crabtree. Pierre. DeAngelo. I'll admit I could be overly cynical here and maybe it's just because I play in a Dynasty league that's more competitive than the average, but there's NO WAY any of those names get sold low in my league. Their owners know how talented these players are and what their value is (hint: it sure as he** isn't in the ballpark of how badly they performed this year and there's a reason opponent's are kicking in the door to acquire them). Buy-lows to me are more along the lines of Sid Rice, Pettigrew, Hardesty, Choice, Forsett, Boldin, O. Daniels. Guys with way more question marks and genuine reasons for owners to be skittish than Larry freaking Fitzgerald. I dunno.

I don't know how you can include Pierre Thomas in the first list but Sidney Rice in the second list. Except for Forsett (who I don't believe has any value) and Pettigrew (who I think is already valued highly), your list isn't much less obvious than the first list. I think both lists qualify as buy lows, if you want to create a separate list of sleepers or breakout candidates, that's something different.I think Larry freaking Fitzgerald qualifies as a buy low because mid 2009 he was untouchable and now he's not. I could see someone taking a top 15 WR + a top 5 pick. I couldn't see that a year and a half ago. If you think he'll be untouchable again soon with Kolb, Gabbert, or Bulger, you are buying low. By definition.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My number one sell high is Greg Jennings. Not to say i wouldnt try and buy him as i have tried. But hed have to be cheaper than the top 5 WR price hes being given right now by most owners. Looks at his numbers last year and his numbers the first 4 games of this year with Finley in the lineup. Still like him but i don't think hes worth the top 5 pricetag.

 

[The Berry Man]

I think Larry freaking Fitzgerald qualifies as a buy low because mid 2009 he was untouchable and now he's not.

Again, nobody is suggesting offering Fitzgerald owner Brandon Tate + 2012 2nd round pick, but he may have gone from "untouchable" to in the discussion after this year, which is notable in itself.

Thinking on it, I really like the Roddy White and Greg Jennings "sell high" nominations. I have Jennings in a couple leagues and he was maddeningly inconsistent for much of the year, and he's currently riding a lot of buzz due to things he did later in the season and in the play-offs, so if you can sell him as a WR5, I think you should. He's not someone I want to rely on as my WR1 week in/week out.

Roddy White, while he's had two excellent years in a row now, 2010 feels like a bit of an unusual spike. His receptions over the past four years: 83, 88, 85, 115. His targets over that time period have been increasing steadily (137, 148, 165, 177) but between 2009 and 2010, his catch percentage went from 52% to 64%. Is that Matt Ryan improving or some kind of offensive shift in the types of plays/routes he runs? I don't know, but I'm not sure White will ever repeat 2010, so it seems like a good time to shop him around.

True selling high involves selling players most people can't believe you would trade.

 

[Black&Gold]

My number one sell high is Greg Jennings. Not to say i wouldnt try and buy him as i have tried. But hed have to be cheaper than the top 5 WR price hes being given right now by most owners. Looks at his numbers last year and his numbers the first 4 games of this year with Finley in the lineup. Still like him but i don't think hes worth the top 5 pricetag.

I totally agree. I traded for him mid way through the season. Won my championship and quickly dealt him away after the championship. He's valued at top 5 WR right now. When Finley comes back I see top 20 numbers.

 

[beto]

CJ Spiller

Beanie Wells

Shonn Green

Malcolm Floyd

Steve Smith NYG

 

[BeTheMatch]

well, read the whole thing....In his statement he basically said that anyone who put certain players are idiots.Then, he goes on to tell everyone how intelligent his league mates are compared to everyone else. I found that a bit condescending and arrogant.

Well, which is it? First you asked if he could be more arrogant, meaning you found it to be as arrogant as can be. But once you were called out on it, it's now "a bit" arrogant.

 

[Clarence the barber]

The following week I gave a 2nd rounder for Matt Ryan.

Results not typical.

Most of my leagues QBs aren't worth much. I gave the 2.03. In another similar scoring league I saw him go for about that.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

well, read the whole thing....In his statement he basically said that anyone who put certain players are idiots.Then, he goes on to tell everyone how intelligent his league mates are compared to everyone else. I found that a bit condescending and arrogant.

Well, which is it? First you asked if he could be more arrogant, meaning you found it to be as arrogant as can be. But once you were called out on it, it's now "a bit" arrogant.

arrogant.

 

[FantasyTrader]

well, read the whole thing....In his statement he basically said that anyone who put certain players are idiots.Then, he goes on to tell everyone how intelligent his league mates are compared to everyone else. I found that a bit condescending and arrogant.

Well, which is it? First you asked if he could be more arrogant, meaning you found it to be as arrogant as can be. But once you were called out on it, it's now "a bit" arrogant.

arrogant.

I think you're being overly sensitive. I never even came close to calling people who included those names idiots. I just said I had a tough time buying it. Hey, if you can get any of those names in your league then and more power to ya - I'm happy for you. I just know that the owners of those players in my league would not be selling for an appreciable value lower than they would have sold them for a year or two ago. I mean, there's a reason everybody is throwing these names out as buy-lows. Because we all know their true value is higher than they performed last year. So, not really a buy low. I apologize if the wording rubbed you the wrong way. Not my intent to insinuate somebody is ignorant for disagreeing with me.

 

[Clarence the barber]

well, read the whole thing....In his statement he basically said that anyone who put certain players are idiots.Then, he goes on to tell everyone how intelligent his league mates are compared to everyone else. I found that a bit condescending and arrogant.

Well, which is it? First you asked if he could be more arrogant, meaning you found it to be as arrogant as can be. But once you were called out on it, it's now "a bit" arrogant.

arrogant.

If you really got offended by that, maybe you should take a break for a while.

 

[Patoons]

My number one sell high is Greg Jennings. Not to say i wouldnt try and buy him as i have tried. But hed have to be cheaper than the top 5 WR price hes being given right now by most owners. Looks at his numbers last year and his numbers the first 4 games of this year with Finley in the lineup. Still like him but i don't think hes worth the top 5 pricetag.

I totally agree. I traded for him mid way through the season. Won my championship and quickly dealt him away after the championship. He's valued at top 5 WR right now. When Finley comes back I see top 20 numbers.

He was just drafted as the #8 WR in my 14-team PPR startup. Selected right after Dez, but before Wayne, VJax, Austin and Bowe which, frankly, seems about right to me.Finley can be seen in two ways:1) Take targets2) Open up the field from double teams

 

[FantasyTrader]

Thank you... I will also say Brandon Marshall has nowhere near the value he did last year.If he does in your league then thats just a stubborn owner who probably overpaid for him in the first place. Not to say he doesnt have value but as the guy I quoted stated...not even close to last year.

See, this gets to the heart of why I don't think he's a buy low at all. Why is the owner just being stubborn if he doesn't sell for a discounted rate? There's a reason you WANT him at the discounted rate. Because you know Marshall is a more talented player than his stats reflected last year. Why is the guy that owns him being stubborn if he places the same value on Marshall as you?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Larry freaking Fitzgerald qualifies as a buy low because mid 2009 he was untouchable and now he's not.

Again, nobody is suggesting offering Fitzgerald owner Brandon Tate + 2012 2nd round pick, but he may have gone from "untouchable" to in the discussion after this year, which is notable in itself.

Fitz is my No. 1 buy of the offseason. Do what it takes to pry him loose just as smart owners did with Calvin Johnson last offseason.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I think Larry freaking Fitzgerald qualifies as a buy low because mid 2009 he was untouchable and now he's not.

Again, nobody is suggesting offering Fitzgerald owner Brandon Tate + 2012 2nd round pick, but he may have gone from "untouchable" to in the discussion after this year, which is notable in itself.

Fitz is my No. 1 buy of the offseason. Do what it takes to pry him loose just as smart owners did with Calvin Johnson last offseason.

 

[ADP]

Sell-highRB:Adrian Peterson: Now this one is tricky, I like Peterson, its more that, I just see his window getting smaller and value him less than others. I have him 5th overall behind CJ, Calvin, Foster and Charles in my rankings, and I think he's more likely to go down than up. I have nothing to support that with other than my gut, but I'll put it out there.

Blasphemy!!