2011 offenses vs. 2012 expectations (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

I guess I'm the only dummy here who didn't get the memo that Richardson is a given for double digit rushing TDs. But it got me thinking, every action has an equal and opposite reaction, so are defenses going to get a lot worse suddenly or will other offenses slip? Historically, scoring is only up 1.5 pts/gm from 30 years ago. I'm going to list teams in order of pts/game in 2011 with their passing TDs and rushing TDs (broken out by RB/QB/WR). Hopefully this will serve as a refreshing reality check and generate some discussion as to which offenses are most likely see a regression to offset the improvement in others.

TM PTS P RBQBWR TotGB - 35.0 51 7 4 0 62NO - 34.2 46 13 1 0 60NE - 32.1 39 13 3 0 55DET - 29.6 41 9 0 0 50SD - 25.4 27 15 1 0 43CAR - 25.4 21 1114 0 46ATL - 25.1 29 12 2 0 41PHI - 24.8 22 19 1 0 42NYG - 24.6 29 16 1 0 46SF - 23.8 17 12 2 0 31HOU - 23.8 20 16 2 0 38BAL - 23.6 20 14 1 0 35NYJ - 23.6 26 8 6 0 40BUF - 23.3 24 11 0 1 36DAL - 23.1 33 4 1 0 38OAK - 22.4 19 11 3 2 35CHI - 22.1 18 9 1 0 28CIN - 21.5 21 9 1 0 31MIN - 21.3 20 13 3 2 38MIA - 20.6 20 8 3 0 31TEN - 20.3 22 6 1 1 30PIT - 20.3 21 13 0 0 34SEA - 20.1 15 14 1 0 30ARI - 19.5 21 12 0 0 33DEN - 19.3 20 5 6 0 31WAS - 18.0 18 5 3 0 26TB - 17.9 17 5 4 0 26IND - 15.2 14 8 0 0 22JAX - 15.2 12 9 0 0 21CLE - 13.6 16 4 0 0 20KC - 13.3 13 4 0 0 17StL - 12.1  9 6 1 0 16The top 4 teams are obviously most likely for a regression to some extent, although NE has done this two years in a row. But if any of their defenses improve then they won't need to score as much even if they could.It would not be surprising to see Carolina regress.

If Ponder can't pick it up, MIN will hurt without Peterson.

Miami struggled last year, but could struggle more if they go with a rookie QB, but the OC was his college coach.

The Giants could struggle if Bradshaw gets hurt and Wilson can't pick up the slack (16 rushing TDs last year).

Overall, I find it really hard to predict which teams will actually slip. Conversely, it is pretty easy to imagine Denver improving with Peyton Manning.

Houston should be much better with Shaub and AJ back. Production really fell off with Yates.

Chicago should improve with a healthy Cutler and now Brandon Marshall.

I expect Flynn to help Seattle quite a bit.

PIT could shine with the new offense.

TB has made some improvements and looks to rebound off of what appeared to be Freeman's soph slump.

Indy should easily improve over Collins/Painter/Orlovsky.

KC is just a year removed from 27 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs (lost Charles and Cassell last yr), now with a new OC, Hillis, and upgraded OL.

StL can't possibly be that bad again.

Oh, and of course, Cleveland is going to blow up because Richarson is so elite.

Who do you guys think will slip this year and why?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

You are doing good work this offseason Ninja.

I agree Trent Richardson is very overrated this coming FF season. People have his bust polished for Canton already.

I, for one will be letting him prove something on the NFL football field before spending a high pick on him.

As far as slipping goes.

I think the Saints without Sean Payton and all the commotion this offseason slips.

I think it will take Pitt another offseason to master what Haley is trying to do.

I think Toby will fill in nicely for ADP, I actually think that O overall can improve. They had nothing outside of harvin now they brought in Simpson and some rookie WR to add depth to that core.

 

[Modog814]

My initial thoughts

TM    PTS  P  RBQBWR TotGB  - 35.0 51  7 4 0 62 - Slight regressNO  - 34.2 46 13 1 0 60 - Regress but still in top tier of points score, HC suspension is a ?NE  - 32.1 39 13 3 0 55 - Slight regress as I think defense plays a bit betterDET - 29.6 41  9 0 0 50 - I think they regress too.  Probably 2 ppg or so as they get healthy RB's backSD  - 25.4 27 15 1 0 43 - About the sameCAR - 25.4 21 1114 0 46 - Regress due to teams "figuring" out Newton a bit.ATL - 25.1 29 12 2 0 41 - Probably end up right around here.PHI - 24.8 22 19 1 0 42 - Improve as last year was one in which it seemed like everything went wrong.NYG - 24.6 29 16 1 0 46 - Regress, superbowl hangover, lose jacobs, mario, some injury concernsSF  - 23.8 17 12 2 0 31 - I think they see one of the biggest improvements as Harbaugh will need to see if Alex can run the offense he wants or not.HOU - 23.8 20 16 2 0 38 - Slight improvementBAL - 23.6 20 14 1 0 35 - Not sure about them, probably end up about the sameNYJ - 23.6 26  8 6 0 40 - About the sameBUF - 23.3 24 11 0 1 36 - Slight regressDAL - 23.1 33  4 1 0 38 - About the sameOAK - 22.4 19 11 3 2 35 - Improvement with a full TC for Palmer.CHI - 22.1 18  9 1 0 28 - Healthy Cutler + Marshall + Bush/Healthy Forte = ImprovementCIN - 21.5 21  9 1 0 31 - Maybe slight decline, sophomore slump and still have to play Bal/Pit 2xMIN - 21.3 20 13 3 2 38 - About the same.MIA - 20.6 20  8 3 0 31 - Worse.  TEN - 20.3 22  6 1 1 30 - Improvement with healthy Britt.PIT - 20.3 21 13 0 0 34 - Not sure new system will be a great fit. SEA - 20.1 15 14 1 0 30 - Should improve with Flynn and return of healthy WR's.ARI - 19.5 21 12 0 0 33 - Improve with addition of Floyd and healthy Kolb/R. WIlliams (Beanie wasn't the answer there)DEN - 19.3 20  5 6 0 31 - Improve obviouslyWAS - 18.0 18  5 3 0 26 - I might have the lowest expectations for Griffin.  I think coming in a year after Newton did what he did might hurt Griffin because he won't be able to catch people off guard.  Also have a weak WR crew over there.TB  - 17.9 17  5 4 0 26 - Slight improvement due to a better offensive focus. VJax is a capable WR1 and allows Mike Williams to play WR2 (I think he fits better there).IND - 15.2 14  8 0 0 22 - Can't really be worse.JAX - 15.2 12  9 0 0 21 - See Indy.CLE - 13.6 16  4 0 0 20 - I think Richardson helps but think he'll be overvalued so he probably won't end up on any  of my teams.KC  - 13.3 13  4 0 0 17 - I think we see a major improvement here as they get a lot of players healthy.StL - 12.1  9  6 1 0 16 - Also think we see a major improvement here, I mean can a team really average less than 12.1 ppg?

 

[butcher boy]

As part of my projection data, I run checks by team to make sure what I'm projecting makes sense compared to last year. My current table which shows the differences for various offensive stats from last year compared to my first draft projections is below.

I have Denver, Chicago, Indy, and San Francisco as the biggest gainers in passing, and Tennesse and KC the biggest gainers in rushing.

On the losing end, I have Green Bay and NY Giants as the biggest losers in passing, and Denver, New Orleans, and Minnesota the biggest losers in rushing.

Overall, I have a 5% increase in passing yards, and a 2.4% increase in passing TDs. On the rushing side, I have a decrease in rushing yards by 2%, but an increase in TDs by 3.5%. I blame the rushing yard decrease on Tebow.

PASSING			              RUSHING											Team	                 Cmp	Att	CP PCT	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TDGreen Bay Packers	-16	-17	-0.83%	-139	-10	3	-72	-235	-1New Orleans Saints	-27	-46	0.94%	-224	-8	2	-24	-308	-1New England Patriots 	6	-35	5.02%	-28	-1	0	-34	-110	-1Detroit Lions    	-31	-36	-1.29%	191	-7	3	-16	-36	0Carolina Panthers	4	-9	1.85%	-130	1	-2	55	-41	-4San Diego Chargers	11	20	-0.26%	330	2	-4	13	-39	-3Atlanta Falcons  	-18	-13	-1.72%	-140	-3	1	14	105	0Philadelphia Eagles	15	1	2.60%	35	3	-6	-10	-47	-3New York Giants 	-13	-34	1.39%	-249	-2	2	0	190	-2Houston Texans  	46	23	6.49%	172	2	4	-71	-261	-1San Francisco 49ers	32	59	-0.83%	410	2	7	-44	-105	-1Baltimore Ravens	-6	-24	1.51%	50	1	2	0	-112	-2New York Jets   	-25	-37	-0.79%	-68	-6	-3	59	102	3Buffalo Bills   	-22	-35	-0.08%	-181	-1	-5	70	180	3Dallas Cowboys	        -15	-20	-0.33%	52	-3	2	4	11	6Oakland Raiders  	-11	-19	0.08%	-43	0	-7	-8	31	-1Chicago Bears    	65	57	6.17%	945	9	0	-33	-192	0Cincinnati Bengals	-17	-26	-0.40%	262	1	4	-54	-128	0Minnesota Vikings	6	0	1.18%	438	0	1	1	-291	-3Miami Dolphins  	11	21	-0.31%	82	-2	5	-43	-309	0Tennessee Titans	-51	-59	-2.92%	-299	-2	1	32	360	4Pittsburgh Steelers	-3	1	-0.67%	426	4	1	81	215	1Seattle Seahawks	16	61	-3.48%	648	3	0	13	157	-3Arizona Cardinals	9	-12	2.92%	155	-1	-5	-30	-143	0Denver Broncos  	121	116	11.44%	1634	9	3	-84	-707	-1Washington Redskins	-15	-41	1.64%	-4	1	-6	2	220	6Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-93	-58	-10.75%	111	4	-5	48	223	2Jacksonville Jaguars	19	6	3.35%	701	5	1	-25	-40	1Indianapolis Colts	18	-4	3.82%	608	5	3	-4	-69	2Cleveland Browns	-34	-85	2.83%	-18	-1	5	20	148	5Kansas City Chiefs	-20	-10	-2.86%	81	6	-2	-21	342	7St. Louis Rams   	8	11	0.38%	550	7	4	-9	-136	1

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Who do you guys think will slip this year and why?

There will be a few teams that slip because they suffer a major injury to their QB or other important skill player - obviously we can't predict that.New Orleans may suffer a bit due to the chaos surrounding the team - but they still have the weapons in place.The Jets are likely to play more conservatively this season - as long as their defense keeps up its end of the bargain.I agree with Miami - Bush seemed to have a "career year" type season and they will need to play the rookis at some point.Buffalo with an improved defense and Jackson being another year older could slip a but in production.Dalton regressed a bit as the season wore on and could have a down season in Cinncy.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------As far as Richardson is concerned, double digit TDs will obviously not be an easy mark to reach, but its also not nearly as impossible as you seem to believe it is. With Hillis suffering from his hamstring injury for a good part of the season, the cast of RBs they trotted out was uninspiring and we all know how the passing game struggled. If Weeden is an improvment on Colt and Little shows improvement in his second season, that could change. I think 8-9 TDs for Richardson isn't close to being a crazy prediction - so double digits could be within reach if things break right.

 

[jurb26]

As far as Richardson is concerned, double digit TDs will obviously not be an easy mark to reach, but its also not nearly as impossible as you seem to believe it is. With Hillis suffering from his hamstring injury for a good part of the season, the cast of RBs they trotted out was uninspiring and we all know how the passing game struggled. If Weeden is an improvment on Colt and Little shows improvement in his second season, that could change. I think 8-9 TDs for Richardson isn't close to being a crazy prediction - so double digits could be within reach if things break right.

A healthy Hillis scored 14 TDs in 2010. Clev appears, on paper, to be improved from then to now. I'm not sure I understand why projecting Richardson to score 10 is all that outlandish. Maybe he falls short of that number but I agree with you, I can't imagine he scoring bellow 8. I'd say his range would be toscore anywhere between 8-14, excluding injury. I think those very bullish on Richardson will project more towards that 14 number and those more bearish will be projuecting down towards that 8 number.In 2011, The Clev offense was epically bad. They scored only 20 TDs. In the last 5 years there have only been 8 teams to score 20 TDs or less. It just so happened that 3 did it last year. Are we really expecting Clev to not improve? in 2010 they scored 30 TDs.

 

[FF Ninja]

As far as Richardson is concerned, double digit TDs will obviously not be an easy mark to reach, but its also not nearly as impossible as you seem to believe it is. With Hillis suffering from his hamstring injury for a good part of the season, the cast of RBs they trotted out was uninspiring and we all know how the passing game struggled. If Weeden is an improvment on Colt and Little shows improvement in his second season, that could change. I think 8-9 TDs for Richardson isn't close to being a crazy prediction - so double digits could be within reach if things break right.

A healthy Hillis scored 14 TDs in 2010. Clev appears, on paper, to be improved from then to now. I'm not sure I understand why projecting Richardson to score 10 is all that outlandish. Maybe he falls short of that number but I agree with you, I can't imagine he scoring bellow 8. I'd say his range would be toscore anywhere between 8-14, excluding injury. I think those very bullish on Richardson will project more towards that 14 number and those more bearish will be projuecting down towards that 8 number.In 2011, The Clev offense was epically bad. They scored only 20 TDs. In the last 5 years there have only been 8 teams to score 20 TDs or less. It just so happened that 3 did it last year. Are we really expecting Clev to not improve? in 2010 they scored 30 TDs.

Totally different team in 2010. Daboll was the OC. Hillis was beasting. Steinbach was playing like a pro bowler. Colt McCoy actually had a decent year (61% comp, 7.1 ypa). Now you've got Shurmur calling the plays, a lot of question marks on the o-line, and Brandon Weeden at QB. Is this really better than the 2010 Browns?! If Richardson does pick up the NFL game seemlessly and handles the big load without wearing down, then just maybe he can overcome those obstacles. But there are a lot of moving parts in this equation. I don't feel comfortable saying it is a better situation than 2010, nor do I feel comfortable saying they'll have more scoring opps than last year. If Weeden is an average NFL QB in his rookie year and the o-line gels, then anyone getting bellcow carries will have a chance to shine. But historically, this would not be the norm. For every Tomlinson and Edge there are a dozen guys that just don't put the NFL game together their rookie year. If he were drafted onto a better team, I'd be tempted to buck the trend, but given the trend and the offense, I'm gonna pass on projecting a top 10 finish.

 

[smackdaddies]

I still think the seahawks will be significantly improved FF wise because they play some TERRIBLE pass defense teams this year. There are at least 8 games that it is reasonable to expect at least 2 passing tds, and I think 3 passing td games.

 

[jurb26]

As far as Richardson is concerned, double digit TDs will obviously not be an easy mark to reach, but its also not nearly as impossible as you seem to believe it is. With Hillis suffering from his hamstring injury for a good part of the season, the cast of RBs they trotted out was uninspiring and we all know how the passing game struggled. If Weeden is an improvment on Colt and Little shows improvement in his second season, that could change. I think 8-9 TDs for Richardson isn't close to being a crazy prediction - so double digits could be within reach if things break right.

A healthy Hillis scored 14 TDs in 2010. Clev appears, on paper, to be improved from then to now. I'm not sure I understand why projecting Richardson to score 10 is all that outlandish. Maybe he falls short of that number but I agree with you, I can't imagine he scoring bellow 8. I'd say his range would be toscore anywhere between 8-14, excluding injury. I think those very bullish on Richardson will project more towards that 14 number and those more bearish will be projuecting down towards that 8 number.In 2011, The Clev offense was epically bad. They scored only 20 TDs. In the last 5 years there have only been 8 teams to score 20 TDs or less. It just so happened that 3 did it last year. Are we really expecting Clev to not improve? in 2010 they scored 30 TDs.

Totally different team in 2010. Daboll was the OC. Hillis was beasting. Steinbach was playing like a pro bowler. Colt McCoy actually had a decent year (61% comp, 7.1 ypa). Now you've got Shurmur calling the plays, a lot of question marks on the o-line, and Brandon Weeden at QB. Is this really better than the 2010 Browns?! If Richardson does pick up the NFL game seemlessly and handles the big load without wearing down, then just maybe he can overcome those obstacles. But there are a lot of moving parts in this equation. I don't feel comfortable saying it is a better situation than 2010, nor do I feel comfortable saying they'll have more scoring opps than last year. If Weeden is an average NFL QB in his rookie year and the o-line gels, then anyone getting bellcow carries will have a chance to shine. But historically, this would not be the norm. For every Tomlinson and Edge there are a dozen guys that just don't put the NFL game together their rookie year. If he were drafted onto a better team, I'd be tempted to buck the trend, but given the trend and the offense, I'm gonna pass on projecting a top 10 finish.

I've been throught he Oline thing several times in other threads. The unit in Clev is solid. People only look at the stat line from last year and assume it's bad IMO. Yes, Weeden at QB is an improvement. I don't care if he's simply average or bellow average. What Clev got out of their QBs last year was putrid. At least Weeden can make all the throws and will challenge defenses deep. Even if you don't think the situation is as good as 2010, I'd certainly say there is no was it is going to be as bad as 2011. Clev was historically bad in 2011. They managed to somehow have the worst group of RBs in the NFL while also having the worst group of QBs in the NFL. Hillis' injury was a major problem for this team. As I said before, I think a realistic range for Trent is between 8 and 14 TDs. That means in a best case, he matches Hillis. I fail to see how that is so far fetched.