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Welker is a true WR1 in that the offense is built around his skills to maximize his use, but he's certainly not a prototypical WR1. It's actually amazing how well Gronk & Hernandez have produced given the situation. I'd be surprised if a prototypical WR1 would really hurt their production as Belichick seems to have no problems utilizing those 3 guys extensively and peppering in the other players occasionally.
Maybe WR1 was the wrong term to use. If the Pats add a deep threat WR, it could hurt the TE values. Someone like DJax, Wallace, or Knox would certainly be a huge improvement over Branch / Ocho / Underwood and, presumably, take away a decent chunk of yardage and TDs.
Really? I had no idea it was that cut-n-dried and I watch plenty of the Pats (admittedly, not as much as any Pats fan). Obviously Gronk is an incredible athlete for his size and he's got great hands, but Hernandez looks to me like he'd flat out smoke Gronkowski in a foot race. He's got solid hands as well and gets great separation. We have two second year TE's, one averaged 15.46 FP/G and the other 18.75 FP/G this year. Not saying Gronk ISN'T the better TE, but to say Hernandez is so inferior it's laughable? I guess I still deserve all of the ridicule because I think the jury is still out.
Hernandez is an incredible player and worthy of his top 5 TE status but Gronk is in a tier of his own (well... he shares the tier with Jimmy Graham these days but my point got across)
If you deserve ridicule, I do too. I personally think saying Gronk is laughably better is more ridicule worthy.
As a Pats fan, from watching each game, watching many press conferences/interviews, etc., I personally believe Gronkowski will always be the TE to take, fantasy and non fantasy-wise. There is something about Hernandez's mannerism, attitude, and behavior, on and off the field, that makes me feel like he is more about himself than the team - whereas Gronkowski gives me the impression that he is much more about the team than himself. I can't entirely explain why, so I probably won't attempt. Looking down the road, in 2013ish, if Hernandez keeps putting up solid numbers, I could see him being traded (for some solid picks), Gronkowski being retained, and the Pats looking to draft for another young athletic TE.
It is going to be hard to argue Hernandez being as talented, when Gronk did what he did. But...When Hernandez has been healthy, the numbers are pretty close, Gronk getting more TDs. They are both two of the biggest mismatches in the NFL, and both are capable of being top receiving TEs, based on talent. Brady will hit the open man and feed who the coverage dictates. Aaron is faster and more fluid, Gronk is stronger, has better hands, and most importantly, Brady seems to trust him more. And I think Hernandez could put up Graham numbers in Graham's situation. He is not quite the redzone threat, but he is every bit the mismatch.
Plus one rushing.
But he doesnt, hasnt, and likely never will. Gronk is bigger and still quicker off the line, which is pretty hard to do for someone that is bigger. Hernandez is like a 1/10th a second faster according to their 40 times, Gronk has been the better receiver since college.Hes shown throughout this entire season that his catch radius is outrageous, like Jerry Rice ridiculous. While on the other hand Hernandez still drops an easy catch once a game.'FantasyTrader said:
Hernandez had several fumbles in the preseason, had a fumble overturned by challenge and nearly lost the ball a few other times this season, as well. His ball security needs work, regardless of how many of these incidents show up on the stat sheet. Gronk can flip over, land on his head and twist like a pretzel and the ball never moves. Also note the explicit use of "(comparitively)" in the statement, as I'm not saying Hernandez is a turnover machine or injury prone. I'm simply using the info available (stats and eyeball/memory) to support my position.
lol?
Okay, like I said, you may be right. I just think it's wrong to make a definitive statement about what these guys CAN become at 22 years old in their second season. Especially when Hernandez nearly matched Gronk in production stride for stride in terms of games played.
Agreed, but what is telling is that Gronkowski's TD to catch ratio is twice as high as Hernandez's AND that Gronkowski has a higher YPC average than Hernandez. If Gronk was just a red-zone target, he shouldn't have a higher YPC average. It's hard to call Hernandez a better receiver when the production and stats don't support that.
See, that's what can be dangerous about taking a snapshot of this season and making conclusions based on that. You realize there's no way Gronkowski will maintain this rec:TD ratio over the course of his career right? 5.29:1 is unsustainable, even for a TE. Historically, even the best TE's hover somewhere around 7.5 to 8 rec. per TD. Every once in awhile that career year will come along where a TE blows that outta the water like Dallas Clark's 2007 (11 TD's on 57 rec). But rest assured it's the exception. All I'm saying is maybe at least consider that this was Gronkowski's career year and that Hernandez hasn't yet reached his potential (or maybe he HAS). All I'm saying is I don't know. I don't think that possibility is laughable.
Well, Gronkowski's career average is 4.75:1, while Hernandez's is 9.5 (and I know that's only a "snapshot" of two years), so over a 2-year "snapshot" Gronkowski has still doubled Hernandez's rec:TD ratio. You say I should know there's no way Gronkowski will maintain this ratio, but aren't you the one who suggests that it's wrong to make definitive statements of what these guys can become? If so, how can you make the definitive statement that Gronk can't keep up this pace?
Why? Until someone averaged 5 yards/carry over their career, no one had done it. But that's not the point. Gronk has been playing at a high level, and so has Hernandez. If you are going to imply that Gronk's numbers have to go down because of regression to the mean, why don't you have to do the same for Hernandez? It's selective logic.The facts are that on a per-game basis, the two TEs produce similar numbers, EXCEPT with regards to TDs and yards/reception, where Gronk is clearly superior to Hernandez. When you combine those facts with the fact that Hernandez has been dinged up a few times, it's hard to argue that Hernandez is superior to Gronkowski.If one wanted to argue that they were similarly talented, I would have no problem with that, but to suggest that Hernandez is the better player isn't supported by the facts.
That would be something if then Lloyd followed McDaniels, lookout!
Excellent point. Belichick is heavily involved in the offensive play-calling though, so don't see them straying too much from the tight ends.
Funny how we talk about who a team's #1 is while at the same time saying a team doesn't have a true #1. You even see GM's slip into it from time to time.To me the WR1 on a team is the one who gets the most targets. It's a question that really only matters in the fantasy context because it's predictive (hopefully) of which WR will get the most opportunity to score fantasy points. If a player has certain physical attributes, talent or skill, that may mean he will attract those targets. But to say a player who doesn't fit that mold but gets the targets anyway isn't a true #1 is just nonsense, as would be claiming that the guy who looks the part but doesn't get the targets is the true #1 for the team.
As soon as someone figures out a way to stop Gronk and Hernandez, BB will focus on someone else. And the more widespread that recipe becomes, the less Gronk and Hernandez will be used.Now, Gronk may be match-up proof in terms of a whole season. But defensive coordinators aren't idiots. If it can be done, it will be done. And BB has no qualms about going one dimensional in some other direction to capitalize on the other teams expectations.Still, you basically have to wait for it to happen. Trying to predict when BB is going to go Crazy Ivan must be as difficult as predicting how he will go about it.
This is a good point, but I don't think it's as simple as a DC "figuring out" how to stop Gronk. His red-zone prowess speaks to the difficulty defending him on short routes, while his high YPR speaks to the difficult defending him on intermediate/deeper routes. Other than doubling him (which leaves Welker and/or Hernandez in single coverage), defending Gronk seems hard. Obviously the age-old concept of hitting Brady could work, but that speaks more to defending the Pats as a whole, rather than Gronkowski, specifically.'JamesTheScot said:
I think we're compating apples to oranges now. My point wat that we can't draw conclusions for comparing 22 year old TE's to each other - not to historical averages. If you think Gronk can maintain a TD for every 5 rec. throughout his career when even the best in the game have averaged 8:1, that's your perogative. But I feel pretty good about ruling out something that extreme.'Bayhawks said:
Fair enough, and in most cases, I'd agree with you. However, this case is different, as these 2 TEs are playing in the exact same offense, with the exact same QB. If you were comparing Graham to Jared Cook, for example, the comparison wouldn't be a good one, because Graham has a better QB, better offense, and has been utilized much more. But Gronkowski and Hernandez don't have those other variables. So while you can try to predict that Hernandez will grow and improve, while at the same time predicting that Gronkowski will taper off, the facts show that while Hernandez has been very good, Gronkowski has been great. There is no fact-based reason to expect this to change, other than your feeling that it will.
I respect your opinion, but no way is Hernandez the better talent - Patriots fan here. Gronk is 6'6", runs like a horse, cannot be tackled by the first guy easily, has a completely obscene catch radius (the dude makes catches that shouldn't be possible), and has surprising agility for someone of his size. Hernandez has a fantastic skill set himself, but he doesn't have the size, leaping ability, or hands that Gronk does. Gronk basically has the same straight line speed as Hernandez - the only "talent" that Hernandez has on Gronk is his jukes and spins, which for a TE, are crazy good and generally get him 5-10 extra yards on plays he properly executes them. Value wise, Hernandez is definitely better though - 900 yards and 7 TDs will always be a fine season for a TE drafted in the middle of the draft. Gronk's superior numbers are a reflection of how skilled Gronk actually is.
