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He's my top-ranked guy until I see Kimbrel pitch a clean inning this spring. I know spring doesn't matter but every outing he's just getting bludgeoned.As for later round guys, I love Grilli. And despite the poor peripherals last season, I think Addison Reed has the pure stuff to make the jump to the upper echelon.
I liked him much more as a starter.
Going out on a limb there.
He was the 2nd closer taken after Kimbrel in my draft Sunday, he went about 20 picks after Kimbrel
Yeah, there's Kimbrel and there's Chapman. Then a significant gap to #3.
2 of his last 3 innings have been clean.
The Motte injury increases the gap to the field. Papelbon is sort of in a second tier by himself now followed by some combination of Soriano, Rivera and Rodney.
Nathan has to be near this trio, no?'Eephus said:
Grilli has a career ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.413. He's 36 and has 5 career saves. Now, he's coming off two good years (had a great year last year, though that K-rate is not typical for him and his GB/FB ratio was way below career norms) and perhaps he's a late bloomer, but this guy has been garbage for the bulk of his time in the majors. I'm not seeing 'thrive' but maybe I'm wrong.'shadyridr said:
Yes, Nathan and Rivera have almost identical NFBC ADP (#131). This dates back to before the recent news about Chapman and Motte
When are you guys targeting closers? It's already been mentioned that after Papelbon, there really is a large tier (assuming about 15-16 based on a cheatsheet I've seen), followed by the rest. The majority of these guys can be had b/w rounds 10-16...but given how wild this position is every year, I hate to waste early draft picks on themIs there a widely accepted strategy? i.e. locking down one "sure thing" and then drafting others late then playing the waiver wire? My league requires 4 RP and we don't get points for holds...so every closer gets taken
The bolded is what I like to do. It's really a feel thing draft to draft for me, though. There's always a point where I don't like the available hitters and SPs too much (or can't differentiate between them) and that's when I'll load up on a couple closers.
I hate drafting closers early, but if you don't get a good one, it can be a tough season. When you play in leagues with active owners who are churning their rosters constantly, finding saves on the waiver wire can be impossible if you have a day job, kids and a life outside of fantasy nerdball. All that said, I tied by wagon to Joe Nathan in both drafts this year because the uncertainty behind him is rather large; though here I'd be a fool to believe Nathan is a lead-pipe lock to repeat his 2012 campaign. He's old and he's had TJ surgery. I'm also 'all in' on Steve Cishek for reasons I can't quite articulate other than he seemed to be around longer than most and when I saw him pitch recently, he blew me away with this stuff. Crappy teams (and the Marlins are that) are often times fertile breeding grounds for saves as their margins for victory are usually by 3 runs or less. BUT...these teams can also deal their closers away mid-season, so be sure you have a back-up plan in place.
I didn't go through this extensively, but guys in Red lost their jobs to injury or were replaced for another reason. Guys in blue were outright abortions, though more than a couple of them did have saves to their credit. I'm also not taking into account guys like Carlos Marmol who lost his job for a while before returning strong or guys like Broxton who got traded. And while 2012 might have been a bit extreme, it seems to me that every year at least 30-50% of the closers to the start the year do not finish the year. Were I you, I'd target two guys you can bank on and then back them up with their handcuff since you have to start 4. Or try to find potential closers who are not currently slated to close. There's a few I can think of, though it's all a gamble. Let other guys reach for saves while you keep piling on offense and SP arms.
Every league is different. The four RP requirement changes things a bit although moreso to boost guys w/ dual eligibility like Medlen, Lynn and Iwakuma. This year, I wouldn't reach for anybody but Chapman or Kimbrel but there's always somebody who loves them more than I do. Other than that, you're probably better off being near the end of the closer run. I think K/9 and WHIP are the best predictors of closer success but it's the craziest position in baseball. SVs are always volatile. I ended up with Jim Johnson in my three leagues last year but I had zero expectations of 51 SVs.
he asked for two late round closers who can do well
Depends league to league and if you're on the elbow or in the middle. Elbow drafter's are always at risk to missing the big run. If you're in the middle, generally speaking, get one in the 10-13 round range, preferably closer to 13, then get another one when the big run starts - sometime between round 13 and 16 usually. Elbow's much trickier, have to predict what others will do. I'd plan to take two back to back in the 12-13 round range, but, again, depends how well you know your competition and what else is available.I don't fret if I leave the draft with just two because I plan to pick up saves throughout the season but I would rather leave with two quality closers and another one or two volatile/replacement closers.'Tiger Fan said:
Teams that win Saves and SBs are not the same teams that win the league in 5x5. Stockpile power and strikeouts while others are wasting picks on closers. If you finish at (or near) the top in HRs and K's, the counting stats will follow and finishing middle-of-the-pack in Saves and SBs will be all you need. My dream-draft is always to take the last 4 closers off the board.
SVs and SBs are the easiest cats to chase during the season.
Yep, saves + SB's then selective starting pitching. Any other offensive category is exceedingly difficult to fix after the draft unless done via trade.SVs and SBs are the easiest cats to chase during the season.
Are we not allowed to disagree?he asked for two late round closers who can do well
Yea, I mostly look for 3 late guys, then pick up one or two guys with a chance to close or guys that are hurt.This year I went Janssen, Marmol, Veras, then took Pestano and Madson with my last two picks.
I realize my post starting rambling, but I never stated to stockpile sb's and saves.I simply posted that almost invariably, are stolen bases and saves undervalued. I posted in another thread that there were significantly less sb's in a year than hr's and received replies that people weren't aware of that. I believe that mentality is very rampant in baseball leagues.I've never been in a league where owners didn't draft or spend on homers and high k pitchers, early and often. You will not find many values there. I believe you will find values in other areas.The reason I wouldn't draft the last 4 closer off the board, are more times than not, you are drafting guys that a) will not have a job within a month or two or b) offer horrific ratios, k totals, which offset any value that their saves get you. You may be better off blowing off saves completely in this event.Does drafting closers a bit earlier offer risk? Of course it does - closers get hurt. Closers throw 500 foot moon shots to Albert Pujols and never recover. But, all positions offer some degree of risk, and honestly a guy pitching 50-60 innings per year, probably has less chance of blowing his arm out than guy throwing 220+ innings per year.We can save the SB discussion for another thread - but I've always felt I've found better bargains in this area, getting guys that get me good obp, great steals, great runs, and a few homers and rbi's, other than a big home run hitter, who gets zero steals, mediocre obp, mediocre runs but goes 3, 4, 7 rounds earlier or goes for $20-$25 more in auction. Most people that see the teams I draft would think I have the most boring, less chance of winning leagues ever....but I've tended to do just fine over the years.
is this still your thinking on the Tigers situation? needing to take a flyer on someone, with all "real" closers taken already.
I've got Romo and Street for my 2 closers, but I drafted Jansen as well. Is it worth it to hold on to him in hopes of him becoming the starter? Or do I drop him and grab League since no one drafted him?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
I like Jansen for his Ks and WHIP. I think Romo and Street are two of the high reward/high risk closers. Street could be pitching anywhere in August, possibly in a non-closer role. He's also always an injury risk.I've got Romo and Street for my 2 closers, but I drafted Jansen as well. Is it worth it to hold on to him in hopes of him becoming the starter? Or do I drop him and grab League since no one drafted him?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
Romo but he's a little guy with a high-stress breaking pitch. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bochy give occasional SV opportunities to Casilla and Affeldt in order to keep Romo fresh.I think Frieri has to be on people's rosters at this point. Madson doesn't appear close to ready and his value should be rather immediate at this point and guys like Pestano or Fujikawa won't have value to start.
Frieri is maybe the better pitcher, but Cishek's job is more secure.
Everybody needs Jesus
Is his ticker ok? I thought League was brought in for a reason?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
Is his ticker ok? I thought League was brought in for a reason?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
they gave League a lot of cheese too.i would take Cishek
And? It's the Dodgers, they give everyone a lot of cash. League has diminishing skills and his control was an issue last year. If he starts blowing saves he's gone, period.Is his ticker ok? I thought League was brought in for a reason?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
North Shore Veterinary Hospital?
Yes. We count the North Shore Veterinary Hospital.Net Saves and Holds (Saves - Blown Saves + Holds)
Yeah good point, but maybe there's more to the heart issue for JansenAnd? It's the Dodgers, they give everyone a lot of cash. League has diminishing skills and his control was an issue last year. If he starts blowing saves he's gone, period.Is his ticker ok? I thought League was brought in for a reason?Kenley Jansen has to be #1Which non-closer will you guys be targeting in hopes of falling into the closers role either via injury or demotion of the closer?
Disagree completely. There is tremendous value in stockpiling the most predictable stats like HRs and Ks while everyone else is chasing saves (one of the most unpredictable cats in roto). Also, you never want to punt a whole catagory. You can easily finish middle-pack / lower third in saves by grabbing the garbage closers. Everyone has their own philosophies though, and ultimately it all comes down to a certain degree of luck anyway. That's what makes it fun.
Why are League and Rondon available? They're the assumed closers at this point. Id go with this order.Rondon - upside League - getting closer moneyFujikawa - just a matter of timeBailey - probably needs an injuryMadson - hasnt been healthy in almost 2 years
For me, it depends entirely on inning max. If there isn't one, or it's absurdly high, I ignore K's entirely and just try to get them by having more innings than everyone. If it's tight, high K pitchers are a premium.Disagree completely. There is tremendous value in stockpiling the most predictable stats like HRs and Ks while everyone else is chasing saves (one of the most unpredictable cats in roto). Also, you never want to punt a whole catagory. You can easily finish middle-pack / lower third in saves by grabbing the garbage closers. Everyone has their own philosophies though, and ultimately it all comes down to a certain degree of luck anyway. That's what makes it fun.
