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The fact that he occasionally lines up in the backfield adds to his value. I'm not sure if this continues with a healthy Cedric or if they address their RB situation through FA/Draft
I strongly disagree that Cobb is overrated. So what if he did it when other guys were hurt? You mean when he had an opportunity he performed? OK, good. Jennings is gone forever now. That means more opportunities. I'll take a young up-and-coming WR in a great offense with a great QB who has already established himself as a weapon that they use all over the field. I rate him very, very highly.
James Jones led the NFL in TD receptions when he "had an opportunity to perform". He'll be back next year and Jennings will be gone, as you point out. Where do you rate him?
Um, and Jennings is probably not returning to GB - shouldn't that figure into the equation of his Cobb's value? I doubt the Packers bring in a free agent to replace him and somebody has to pick up the slack. Personally, I think Cobb will be gold in PPR leagues. Haven't done my rankings yet, while I think I would have Cruz slightly above him, it is not IMO the slam dunk straight up trade that you seem to think it is.
It's not that just that Jennings was out. It is that Nelson was hindered and also missed time. Cobb is being valued based on a best case scenario, and that hasn't happened yet. When everyone is healhty, he was the #3 WR on his team. Yet he is a top 7-10 dynasty option? Before we know what GB does this off-season to potentially replace Jennings/Finley/Driver?Um, and Jennings is probably not returning to GB - shouldn't that figure into the equation of his Cobb's value? I doubt the Packers bring in a free agent to replace him and somebody has to pick up the slack. Personally, I think Cobb will be gold in PPR leagues. Haven't done my rankings yet, while I think I would have Cruz slightly above him, it is not IMO the slam dunk straight up trade that you seem to think it is.
I think Cobb has better football ability than Jones. I think that talent will win out. I think Cobb's best days are ahead of him. I think he's too good to be an afterthought or play second fiddle to the likes of James Jones over the long term. I don't have a list of rankings in my pocket, so I can't answer specifically where I'd rank him. Higher than you, obviously.
A lot of people would argue that he can beat out Jones but still remain second fiddle.
Well, I don't know how Shorts got brought into this. But if you think Cobb is "overrated," then don't trade for him.
Second fiddle in that offense has proven pretty valuable in the past. I was talking about second fiddle to second fiddle. Or second fiddle twice removed if you prefer.
Short is in this conversation because he is in a similar situation; great stretch of production with little to no established history. They should be ranked closely but Cobb's value is double Shorts', and Shorts wasn't lucky enough to play for the Packers. Blackmon is another; his last 10 games pro-rated is 80/1200/8...as a rookie...with Chad Henne. Should be in the same tier as Cobb, right? One would think. But he is worth half as much as Cobb, based on most rankings.I am bringing Blackmon and Shorts into the conversation to provide context.
Well, you don't have to sell me on Blackmon. I've always been a believer in him, and I do group him closely with Cobb.Shorts is a guy, admittedly, that I haven't paid as much attention to, so I'm not as confident in placing a value on him as I am some other guys like Cobb and Blackmon.
Scored 2 TDs against the Rams with Nelson in the lineup week 7. Also scored a TD in weeks 5 and 11 when Nelson played. I think these are the games Nelson might have hurt himself but I don't know when Cobb scored the TDs. In my 0.5 PPR league, Cobb averaged 11 ppg when Nelson played (excluding weeks 5 and 11). That includes weeks 2-3 when Cobb want used. That's around mid WR2 scoring in my league. I would say that's his floor going forward and ones over/under value position depends on where you and your league mates think he lands vs that.ETA: this was for naught. I missed the Jennings reference and thought you were only looking at Nelson's injured time. But I typed this on my phone so I'm leaving it on principal.
Nelson hurt his hamstring. Sure he came back and played, but he was still hindered by it. When all 4 guys are healthy, Cobb is the #3 option on his own team.Sure, Jennings is likely gone. But the Packers would love to have SOME balance and a better defense. Either of those things happen and they are playing from behind less, and playing ahead more. Again, we are valuing Cobb based on a best case scenario that hasn't happened yet. There are other options with similar hot streaks who we have yet to crown. That is a sell high sign, in my opinion. I like the guy and would love to have him as my WR2. But I am not going to pay as though him being a WR1 is a sure thing. There are better gambles value wise.
No, because he is a rookie and not only does Cobb have another year on him, but is in a much better situation for a WR in Green Bay.
Wouldn't him putting up stats as a rookie be a positive indicator for Blackmon?Additionally, while it is a much better 'real NFL' situation to be in GB, its not a complete slam dunk from a fantasy perspective, as Blackmon would likely benefit from increased targets and less competition for catches.
What does him being a rookie have to do with it? A rookie scoring on par with a 2nd year guy should not shift value towards the 2nd year player. Cobb is more situation dependant - why is that a good thing? When the Packers needed to win games to go to the Super Bowl, Cobb was invisible outside of a few handoffs. The gameplan wasn't to get him the ball; he's not their best weapon. Again, for the record, I am not saying he isn't a valuable player - he is. I am saying his current price-tag is crazy. You'd be better off adding a little to get Dez Bryant, or downgrading to guys like Nelson, Blackmon, or Shorts.
Shorts proved to be the only viable option in a very poor offense. Blackmon vastly underperformed based on his draft position (I too hope he improves with after his first year of NFL experience behind him, as Shorts did). There was no running game (not that GB did either but the passing game did help their production somewhat). Neither team got much out of the TE position.I am by no means an expert on either team but McCarthy was moving Cobb all over the place. He seemed to be using him as an experimental object. He had a nearly 77% catch rate. Maybe once they settle on how to use him his overall production will improve. It seems to me with players going in and out of the lineup it would be more difficult for a player like Cobb who is used as a multifunction player would be more inconsistent than one like Jones who is in a more defined role.Kudos to Shorts for stepping up in his second year. No denying his value to Jacksonville nor his on field production. I personally wouldn't sell short on Cobb.
Well if we add his rushing yards, he had nearly 1100 yards in part time duty for part of the year. Think most still have Cruz ranked a couple spots ahead of Cobb so not sure why he matters. Cobb did have very similar stats this year though.It's not that just that Jennings was out. It is that Nelson was hindered and also missed time. Cobb is being valued based on a best case scenario, and that hasn't happened yet. When everyone is healhty, he was the #3 WR on his team. Yet he is a top 7-10 dynasty option? Before we know what GB does this off-season to potentially replace Jennings/Finley/Driver?Um, and Jennings is probably not returning to GB - shouldn't that figure into the equation of his Cobb's value? I doubt the Packers bring in a free agent to replace him and somebody has to pick up the slack. Personally, I think Cobb will be gold in PPR leagues. Haven't done my rankings yet, while I think I would have Cruz slightly above him, it is not IMO the slam dunk straight up trade that you seem to think it is.
Cruz is what we hope Cobb can be, and he'll score more TD's. Cruz is PPR gold and has pro-rated 90/1,600/10 season under is belt. He followed it up with 86/1100/10. Can we let Cobb hit 1,000 before we crown him?
-He is the #3 weapon on his team. -Cobb has done nothing even close to what Jordy did last season. Not sure what you mean by "Nelson? Please..."-He is versatile in that he can play some RB. He is not versatile in that he can play all 3 WR spots, like his teammate Jordy Nelson. -The Packers started Benson, Harris, Green at RB this season. How many RB points did Cobb add for you? How many will he add when they upgrade the RB spot?-How many leagues reward return points?
Nelson was having a better season this past year prior to his injury. Let me know when Cobb has a season that comes similar to what Nelson did in 2011, as well.
Good point, rookies are always able to replicate their first season and their numbers are the truest indicator of future career production. A first year breakout only means bigger and better things. Seriously, some of us actually like to see a rookie player do it again before we rank him above an older player we think is of equal or better value.
Oh - but 2nd year players don't need to do it again? Am I understanding your logic? And yes - a good first year does mean a player is more likely to repeat and improve on rookie production.
Numbers score points in my league. Sure, Cobb is an up and comer and I have always been very high on him, even going back to his wildcat days at Kentucky. But if I am going to pay WR7-9 prices, I want a guy who has done it before. I want a guy who is the #1 on his team, or at least a starter at the X or Y spots, so he is always on the field, especially in redzone situations. I don't want to have to depend on others on his roster leaving for him to be a safe bet for top 15 numbers. Again, Cobb is great and a high end WR2 option. But his price right now is insane.
Anyone that downplays Nelson's talent, hasn't watched many GB games.
I will take two years in the bank over one year (all other things being equal).
Nelson essentially missed 6 games this year. He had 300 less yards than Cobb (rec/rush) but Jordy had more TD's. Cobb had 104 targets to Jordy's 73. People are underavaluing Jordy and dismissing his big year as a fluke. The guy is productive when healthy.For those looking past (or ignoring) numbers, watch games, who's almost always standing with Rodgers on the sidelines? I'll give you a hint, his name is Jordy Nelson.Both are great players, the difference is Jordy is being undervalued while Cobb is way overpriced right now.
I'd take two years if they were both highly productive. However, that is not what we are dealing with here.
I don't think anyone thinks Cobb is a bad player. That's not the point. The point is that his trade value is coming pretty close to its ceiling. A lot of people see him as a top 8-12 dynasty WR. How much higher can he get? Do you think he really has top 5 dynasty WR potential? I am skeptical of that. On talent alone I don't rate him as high guys like Harvin, Thomas, and Green. The main thing I like about him is his combination of talent and situation. Good player in a great system. I'll take that in a WR2 for my FF team, but in a WR1 I want someone with Pro Bowl ability and I don't think Cobb is quite on that level.
I'll agree partially but you know he hurt his ankle at the end of the year. And saying he did nothing in 1 game isn't saying a lot.
his value is already much lower than it was mid season. thats okay if he only produces with jennings out because jennings is likely to leave. jordy flopped this year. james jones did great but he 4 or so disappointing seasons before that. who knows if either will be able to be a WR1 next season.i don't see why he is a sell high. imo, this is the last chance you will be able to get cobb in a ppr dynasty for less than a top 5 price for a while, assuming jennings leaves.
Exactly - and I have seen that argument made repeatedly for years by those who manage their teams like a stock portfolio. The reasoning goes something like "You will never get any more for him in trade, so move him now for some lower ranked player(s) with upside and/or picks." And then, of course, you have to hope what you acquired will eventually equal what you gave up (but from my experience it doesn't seem to always work out that way).'thriftyrocker said:
If Jennings is gone, and many believe he is...then Cobb will have the perfect talent/opportunity blend. A start WR for Aaron Rodgers. yes please
I hate to bring race into it, but I think people have a hard time labeling a white WR as "talented". Even Wes Welker constantly gets called a product of the system and/or Brady gets all the credit.Nelson combines size, strength, speed, route running and sure hands into one package. What's not to like about him as a WR? I don't own him in any leagues, but maybe I should start trying to see if his owners are thinking 2011 was a fluke (while the TD rate probably was, the production was not).
I'm not trying to diminish Shorts, but Belichick says something similiar almost every week about a player on the opposing team - except for when he playes the Jets because he wants to keep some level of credibility.
It took Harvin a while to reach his potential as well. He was the proverbial tease. He was also difficult to pry away from owners before he ascended to his current status. Like Shorts, Harvin's value could wain with the addition of playmakers to the roster. Cobb's trade velue may be close to it's ceiling in a lot of Leagues. I wouldn't doubt that. Some times people love a player. Nothing wrong with that. Buyer beware, eh?
Right now, Cobb's value is, at least, double that of Shorts. I know there are only a few startups/rankings/mocks out right now, but Cobb is a 2nd round pick and shorts is a 5th. In my most recent draft, Cobb went in the 2nd, Blackmon in the 5th, and Shorts in the 7th. We are talking about Blakmon+Shorts+mid 1st, in terms of startup value. You mention Cruz and Nelson, but I think you help my argument bringing them up. Nelson and Cruz were both undervalued despite their amazing seasons. They were 3rd round picks after doing what we hope one day Cobb can do. Cruz is going as high as he went last year, despite the Giants offense stalling heavily at times and hurting his value. The hobby required Cruz and Nelson to "do it again"; we aren't asking Cobb to. Deals I would look to make and consider "selling high", so we are clear: Dez - mid 1st rounder. D. Thomas - mid 1st rounder.Newton/Rodgers/Luck - mid 1st rounderGronk - mid 1st rounderGrahamCruzNelson + mid 1st rounderShorts + top 4 pick.Blackmon + mid 1st rounder All of these deals are realistic hauls for Cobb right now, and I'd make all of them.'thriftyrocker said:
What are the odds that Jennings is gone? No more than the odds that the Panthers would let D.Williams walk, right?--before they game him his big deal. Both parties want Jennings in GB, Jennings just wants top dollar too. I know it is more likely that he is gone than he stays, but if we put a number on it? 70/30? 60/40? Would we be shocked if Jenning's market isn't as big as he thinks it is, under the new CBA?I feel like investing in Cobb right now is paying $90 for a 70% chance at $100. If I can find an owner that thinks that $100 is a sure thing, that's a good bet for me.
Apples and Oranges IMO to compare decisions made by the fallible Panthers to management decisions by the better run Packers.
You could be right, but all it takes is Jennings coming off his pricetag. The players love him, Rodgers loves him, the fans love him, so do the coaches. He wants to be back.It would be such a major hit to Cobb's value and I feel like it is being ignored.
He'd have to come off his price tag at a huge margin for the Packers to afford his services. It's not going to happen. The Pack will be using that money to lock up the other key players. While I think Jenning's impact and usefulness to the team is underrated on these boards, I'm a firm believer that the QB makes the WRs more than the other way around. Rodgers will be just fine with what they have.
Some guys need their 'fix' by making/'winning' trades that often won't translate into fielding a better team.
Totally agree with you here that Cobb is massively overvalued, but...Cobb + mid-first = Dem Thomas? Or Gronk? Straight up for Graham? IMO no one would actually do that.The Cruz, Shorts and Blackmon deals look more realistic.
