Concept Coop
Footballguy
You could be right; I am using the start-up/mock draft info that we have and it is very limited. But Gronk and Graham are going mid-2nd and Cobb is going late 2nd. Perhaps outside of a start-up setting it's not realistic.
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2013 Dynasty "Sell High" (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ShaHBucks
- Start date
Donsmith753
Footballguy
As a guy that had Cobb at 8 (i think?) I'd give him and the 1.01 for a Thomas/Bryant/Gronk type player.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's a "Sell high" thread; if you're not looking to trade, maybe it's not for you.Some guys need their 'fix' by making/'winning' trades that often won't translate into fielding a better team.
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squistion
Footballguy
Yeah, I guess I can see that, although on the other side I don't think I would move Gronk for that. It would turn too on my RB needs, I got the 1.01 in one league and my RB corps is so meager that I almost have to take the best RB on the board or make a trade for a high rankedd player.
squistion
Footballguy
I think you may be mischaracterizing his position. I believe his point was not to make the assumption that every player who is at his trade ceiling is automatically a "sell high" candidate. I see a difference between players at their ceiling who are overvavlued and those are not.It's a "Sell high" thread; if you're not looking to trade, maybe it's not for you.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I just don't think anyone suggested trading players when they hit their peak value, though. The only reason I would advocate selling a player high is when their market value is higher than actual value, in my opinion.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
depends. what NFL teams do an what us FFLer's want is two different things.I think a lot of people owing Stewart/DeAngelo wanted one of them gone, however the panthers front office wanted depth at the rb spot.Jennings might price himself out of GB, what McCarthy wants doent always jive with what Ted Thompson will do. The GB front office probably has a price they are willing to pay Jennings and him and his agent will decide if that is good enough to stay or go for the big bucks. Dyno trading right now is a big risk, some people wont do it, hell I cashed in ADP in one league last year and the egg is on my face now. win some lose some
Tau837
Footballguy
Where are you getting the bolded? Henne started the last 6 games. According to FBG's Data Dominator, Shorts ranked as the #24 WR in fantasy points over that period. That is with FBG scoring, which is non-PPR. In PPR, he ranked #26. Green, Julio, Roddy, and Cobb were all ahead of him.ETA: And that is with Henne tied for #6 in pass attempts over those final 6 games.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Shorts missed time. He is using PPG, and is accurate. And Henne started the last 9 games.
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identikit
Footballguy
Not every sell high moment is a good idea to trade.That was my point.It's a "Sell high" thread; if you're not looking to trade, maybe it's not for you.
Tau837
Footballguy
Henne did not start the last 9 games. He played in 10 games total. He played in relief of Gabbert in weeks 2, 7, 10, and 11. Then he started weeks 12-17.You're right that Shorts missed time during Henne's starts. He missed the games in week 14 and 17. So we're talking about a 4 game sample size during which Henne attempted 153 passes. First of all, I don't think that is very predictive. Secondly, can you show your work that Shorts was WR #8 over those 4 specific games (weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16)? I don't know of an easy place to selectively choose games like that.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You had a post on Halloween 2012 in the Dynasty Rankings thread that had Cruz #3 and Nelson #7. Their value is a bit lower now. Were they sell highs on Halloween 2012? Or are rankings fluid enough that who gives a crap? Cruz is a stable asset and has been since before Halloween. His value dipped but that doesn't mean he was a sell, necessarily. If he's your guy, you would pay a Dez or Julio to get him. If he's not your guy, you wouldn't. Some people choose to be dwarfs, some choose to be wizards.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for pointing that out. I thought Henne started those games. There are plenty of splits we can use. Let's just use his last nine games. Does it really matter if it was Henne or Gabbert, in that sense?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm confused by your point here. Help me understand. Dez Bryant happened and Cruz will be a year older next time he plays a game. What does Cruz dropping 2-3 spots in my rankings have to do with Randall Cobb?
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EBF
Footballguy
My wording was a bit off, but the general idea still applies.Henne played significant snaps in 9 games. Shorts was a top 10 ppg WR in my leagues during that stretch. I agree that the sample size is small, but then again nobody is saying that Shorts is the #8 dynasty WR. If he's only valued as the WR25-WR35 in dynasty drafts then there's a lot of wiggle room for him to regress from his second half production and still prove to be a great bargain for anyone who gets him at that price.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
A sell high is a player whose value will drop significantly. Was ADP a sell high after he hung up 296 against SD in his rookie year? His value was the highest at that moment. I would argue he was a buy high at that moment.
squistion
Footballguy
Maybe not in this thread, but it seems to me that EBF has pretty much essentially said that over the years. He has made the statement that "dynasty leagues are all about future value not present value," (not an exact quote but close) that seems to advocate trading players whenever they reach their peak present value. And he did say this here about Cobb:
Which seems to suggest that Cobb is a sell high precisely because he is at his ceiling. But perhaps I may be misinterpreting that remark and if so, I stand corrected
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A sell high, in my book, is when a player's market value is higher than his actual value - nothing more. I am not suggesting Cobb's value will take a major hit, or he won't continue to have value. I am suggesting that is market value is based on the assumption that a lot of things go his way. His actual value takes more risk into account.
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EBF
Footballguy
My advice would be to consider trading a player any time his value has peaked. Of course, this is assuming that:
1. You are able to make an accurate judgment about when a player's value has peaked.
2. You are able to make an accurate judgment about the value of the player(s) you'd be trading him for.
3. You are able to get a fair deal.
And those are not safe assumptions. So no, I wouldn't say you should automatically trade every player when his value has peaked. It's possible to jump the gun and trade someone too soon. Like if someone traded Kaepernick after his first big game this year. They might have thought they were selling high, but they weren't. He still had upside. That's one risk.
The second risk is that you have to find the right trade targets. If you think Brandon Marshall is near the end of his prime and you think Michael Floyd will soon become a top 5 WR in his own right, you would be wise to make a trade of Marshall for Floyd + pieces. But...you have to be right in your assessment. If Floyd flops and your other pieces don't amount to much, you've just lost the deal big time. That's another risk factor.
Nevermind the fact that it can be petty hard to push a fair trade through. In my experience, a lot of owner in my leagues will only make deals that are lopsided in their favor. So you could offer them something like Marshall for Floyd + pieces and they might reject you even if that trade is completely fair.
When you consider all of these risk factors, it sometimes makes sense just to sit on your players even if you think their value is due to decline. I've kept guys like Fitzgerald and Jennings after their sell-by date in some of my leagues for this reason. But in a case where...
1.) You're certain that a player has reached peak value.
2.) You've identified a trade package that will net you more than what the player is worth.
3.) You can find a willing trade partner.
Then yes, I'd say it's usually a good idea to sell in those cases.
It is not always easy to have all of those variables line up though.
1. You are able to make an accurate judgment about when a player's value has peaked.
2. You are able to make an accurate judgment about the value of the player(s) you'd be trading him for.
3. You are able to get a fair deal.
And those are not safe assumptions. So no, I wouldn't say you should automatically trade every player when his value has peaked. It's possible to jump the gun and trade someone too soon. Like if someone traded Kaepernick after his first big game this year. They might have thought they were selling high, but they weren't. He still had upside. That's one risk.
The second risk is that you have to find the right trade targets. If you think Brandon Marshall is near the end of his prime and you think Michael Floyd will soon become a top 5 WR in his own right, you would be wise to make a trade of Marshall for Floyd + pieces. But...you have to be right in your assessment. If Floyd flops and your other pieces don't amount to much, you've just lost the deal big time. That's another risk factor.
Nevermind the fact that it can be petty hard to push a fair trade through. In my experience, a lot of owner in my leagues will only make deals that are lopsided in their favor. So you could offer them something like Marshall for Floyd + pieces and they might reject you even if that trade is completely fair.
When you consider all of these risk factors, it sometimes makes sense just to sit on your players even if you think their value is due to decline. I've kept guys like Fitzgerald and Jennings after their sell-by date in some of my leagues for this reason. But in a case where...
1.) You're certain that a player has reached peak value.
2.) You've identified a trade package that will net you more than what the player is worth.
3.) You can find a willing trade partner.
Then yes, I'd say it's usually a good idea to sell in those cases.
It is not always easy to have all of those variables line up though.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You are stating Cobb is a sell high because his value may drop if we don't see the "best case scenario."
Cruz's value dropped from WR3 to ~WR7. Nelson's value dropped from WR7 to ~WR16. We didn't get the best case scenario for either player (Eli's arm, Nelson's injuries) and their value dropped. If we don't see the "best case scenario" for Cobb, and his value drops to where you have him at ~WR14, is it a big loss? Do you feel a big loss for having overvalued Cruz and Nelson in October? I would say no. Rankings are fluid, and they are still good players. If the "best case scenario" doesn't happen, and Cobb becomes *only* "a high end WR2 option," who gives a crap, he's still good. I would agree with selling Cobb for the right player. If you can get Graham for him, that's awesome. I even agree with favoring Cruz straight up. If you also favor Blackmon, that's fine. But I disagree with selling just because you feel a player is overvalued or that the value has hit a high watermark. I would feel confident holding Cobb because his talent and situation are good enough to buoy his value even if he doesn't meet some "best case scenario" you warn about. If he's valued behind Nelson, Blackmon, and Shorts next year, I won't be overly concerned about it. What are the chances of him not being a dynasty WR2? Pretty close to 0 IMO.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Do you feel Cruz and Nelson should have been sell highs on Oct 31, 2012?Value can be inflated by a lot of things. In Cobb's case it is upside. In Cruz's case it is a dream season he may never repeat. Maybe this is why I don't qualify as an OCD owner.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You're making this more complicated than it needs to be. His market value is higher than I think he is worth. That really is the bottom line. Of course rankings are fluid and things change. Cruz would not have been a bad investment, even in hindsight - you're right. But that is not the same situation here. When Randall Cobb is just the slot WR, his production has not been high end WR2. That is not his floor. If Jennings leaves, there is still a possibility that Cobb doesn't move into the Z spot. Jennings and Cobb play two different positions when both are healthy - it is very possible that the Packers try to get a guy more suited to do what Jennings did, and pair him with Nelson in 2 WR sets. My stance isn't that Cobb is high end WR2, worst case scenario. My valuing him as such takes both his ceiling and floor into consideration. I don't expect everyone to agree with me. But you're not going to convince me that I am wrong about my own opinion. I might be wrong about Cobb, and we'll see. But I am not confused about my stance on him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you mean ADD.And no, Cruz and Nelson shouldn't have been sell highs. I had them ranked very closely to their market value; maybe a little higher. That statement does not apply to Cobb, no matter how badly you want it to for some reason.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Shorts moved into the starting lineup in Week 7... over the last 11 weeks of the season (ppg,PPR):
Code:
1 Johnson, Calvin DET WR 22.3 2 Johnson, Andre HOU WR 22.3 3 Marshall, Brandon CHI WR 21.1 4 Bryant, Dez DAL WR 19.8 5 Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 19.3 6 Crabtree, Michael SFO WR 18.1 7 Cobb, Randall GBP WR 18.0 8 Decker, Eric DEN WR 17.3 9 Jones, Julio ATL WR 17.0 10 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR 16.9
Pipes
Footballguy
If Cobb is truly being ranked at the 8-12 spot then yes he is slighty overvalued. However he is only 22 and the coach staff and Rodgers loves him so I'd be hesitant to trade someone at his age with his talent and a QB like Rodgers.As far as Jennings goes he isn't coming back. There are too many teams that need WR's so he won't need to come off his pricetag. The passing offense was just fine without him and with Mathews and Raji coming due at the end of 2013 Thompson won't shell out 9 million or so for a WR who's just beginning the downside of his career. Though I do think Jennings still has some very productive years left.Keep up the good work Coop. I find your posts very insightful.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
When all WRs are healhty, Cobb is on the field for about 50% of the offensive plays. Behind Nelson, Jennings, and Jones. In order for Jenning's departure to mean a major increase in that total, the Packers need to change their playcalling, or have Cobb change positions. The Packers do not use Cobb as much as an exclusive slot player needs to be used to be a fantasy #1 (Welker).A decrease in 3/4 WR set - say the Packers want more balance - would be a huge hit. Finding another flanker to replace Jenning's snap - same thing.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Well, I don't want to argue over semantics, even though that's what we're doing. I believe that drop in market value fits the definition of sell high you posted, but if you don't feel that way, that's fine.
Harvin went through the same thing with much worse competition. If you think this projects forward indefinitely, I think you're wrong. Cobb is going ahead of Nelson in PPR redraft. I think that is correct, and I assume you don't.
What would I have to add to Boykin to get Cobb from you.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Why the hell not? It's the off-season.
I'll take a look at Harvin's snap count numbers. I think GB gets Cobb the ball, sure. But we can't simply ignore the fact that he is 4th on his own team in terms of snap count. And I don't think Cobb = Harvin. He's a poor man's version, in my opinion.
No. Give me a healthy Jordy, please.
A high-end WR2; Cobb value.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks, man.
cstu
Footballguy
All this talk about him being a sell high has me confused. Is someone going to give up a 1st for him? What do you think he can be sold for? He seems like one of those guys who is valued more by his owner than anyone else.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think Shorts is a sell. I think he's a buy or a hold.I gave up Daryl Richardson and a random 2014 1st in one league for him.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Looks like BMarshall continues to be undervalued by the FBG intelligentsia.
FBG dynasty ratings have him 13th overall. If anything, overvalued.
Well said. Pro rating small data samples sizes. UrghhhhUse ur eyes people's. Cobb is the real deal.
I tried but he was only on the field half the time they had the ball.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
In the same sense that AJ Green is a poor man's version of Calvin Johnson, sure.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Do your eyes tell you he is a top 15 NFL WR?Nobody here is saying he's not "the real deal".
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In some way, yes. But the number of slot players who are threats to have fantasy WR1's is much smaller than those that play on the outside. Being a poor man's Clavin doesn't limit your snap count.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There is a very good chance that GB has Cobb play on the outside a bit more, and takes advantage of what he offers in the slot. But there is also a very good chance that he is not what some seem to hope he is, too. He could very well be the 1st/2nd best WR on their team and not have that show up on the snap count. The more he plays on the outside, the more he faces man coverage, jams, and the more his height is an issue. Just don't be surprised is Cobb is not a direct replacement for Jennings, even assuming Jennings is gone. He could still be on the bench in most 2WR sets. And certainly don't take his catch rate% now and pro-rate it; it nose dives the potential moment he starts lining up on the outside. Cruz is such a monster because he can play the slot, but can also be the flanker and lineup on the outside. Can Cobb? Better than the other GB options? We'll see.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I am only going by snap counts, so it could be some combination. But when only Jennnigs was out, Neslon/Jones got the highest snap%. That would lead me to think Cobb was on the bench during the 2WR sets.ETA: Just went back and looked; no, Cobb did not replace Jennings. In almost every game that Jennings did not start, Jones has the highest snap count. Always in the top 2.
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Yeah I reckon he is. With top 5 upside. We talking about a dual threat 22 year old in the GB offense. I watched him at times this year and simply said Wow. U have that much talent. Ur gunna demand the ball.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Roddy White on Victor Cruz: “He’s Just a Slot Guy, The Big Boys Play Outside” I think marking that as a limitation isn't quite right. Not with 2 other slot WR also in the top 10 and neither named Welker. Please project Cobb's snap count over the next 5-7 seasons. At some point this is all hot air. Either you think he's going to deliver on elite production (if not now then soon) or you think he's fool's gold. Is the risk really that high?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
When 3 WRs are healthy, on average, the 2 outside guys are getting 90-100% of the snaps, while Cobb is getting 60%. When all 4, Cobb drops to around 50%, while the 3 outside guys rotate some.Assuming this is the case next year, and it looks like this, what are the odds Cobb finishes in the top 15?Jones - 90-100%Jordy - 90-100%Cobb- 50-60%
flc735
Footballguy
i don't get it. if you look back, the best time to sell jordy was in the offseason. you didn't make the right decision by holding onto him through this year. if you think he will rebound, thats a different story. he would actually be a buy low in this case, since his value is clearly in a dip.i day trade my dynasty teams and it has worked extremely well for me. it allows me to take advantage of what i think are league specific value discrepancies and profit off of those moves more often than you would be able to. this adds up to a greater value gain in the long run.
there are 11, 13 or 15 other teams, each with different team needs and player values. there is ALWAYS a way to improve your team via trade.
straw man argument. just because i decide to trade breakout player X, doesn't mean i am trading him for a bunch of prospects. i do the opposite, sell-high-trade-up and most good owners do the same.you likely got jordy as a WR5 last year. the best thing you could have done was to pair him up with your WR10-20 to bring in a second top 5 WR on your team last off season...or something similar.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Cobb needed two injuries to even have the season he did. Jennings leaving does a lot less for him than I thought before looking at the stats.
He's not built to be on the outside and GB knows this, playing James Jones there.
Very clear sell high, in my opinion.
And I'll leave everyone alone about him now.
He's not built to be on the outside and GB knows this, playing James Jones there.
Very clear sell high, in my opinion.
And I'll leave everyone alone about him now.
flc735
Footballguy
jennings is leaving. finley might leave too.he produced fine with only 60% of the snaps.and what is your sample size here? i count 3 games which all 4 played this year. i dont think thats enough.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Every game that that even one of Jordy/Jennings played. Cobb's stats are inflated by 2 games he started on the outside, and one game in which Jordy left the game.Even assuming Jennings is gone, Cobb is getting 50-60% of the snaps until one of them goes down. Unless they draft or bring in another outside guy. Then he's stuck at 50-60%.
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