1.
Max Scherzer (RHP Tigers, 30): Scherzer won’t be winning a second consecutive Cy Young Award, but he was pretty much the same pitcher in 2014 that he was in 2013. In fact, he allowed 18 homers both seasons. His K/BB ratio went from 240/56 in 214 1/3 innings to 252/63 in 220 1/3 innings. Scherzer is practically assured of landing the biggest deal ever for a free agent pitcher, topping
Zack Greinke’s six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers. A six-year, $168 million contract is the guess here.
2.
Jon Lester (LHP Athletics, 31): Lester picked a great time to have a career year, finishing with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His previous best ERA was a 3.21 mark in 2008, and his best WHIP was 1.20 in 2010. His strikeout rate also rebounded to past levels (7.3 K/9 IP in 2012, 7.5 in 2013, 9.0 in 2014). Though Lester isn’t as good of a bet as Scherzer for the short term, he seems like the more likely of the two to stay healthy and remain an asset through the end of his contract. Six years and $150 million isabout right for him. The Red Sox will try to get him back, but they’ll have to fight the Yankees and others for him. One bonus with Lester: he can’t get a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason and thus won’t cost his signing team a draft pick.
3.
Yasmany Tomas (OF Cuba, 24): Signs point to Tomas becoming the richest Cuban defector yet, with a $100 million contract perhaps in the offing. He showed considerable offensively ability by hitting .298/.340/.581 as a 21-year-old and .289/.364/.538 as a 22-year-old in Cuba, though he faded to .286/.343/.444 in the offense-heavy league last season. There’s little doubt that Tomas will hit for power in the majors, though his on-base skills are in question, as is his defense in a corner outfield spot. From the sound of things, he could be the Phillies’ big addition this winter.
4.
Hanley Ramirez (SS Dodgers, 31): Only two shortstops managed .800 OPSs last season:
Troy Tulowitzki came in at 1.035 in 91 games before getting hurt and Ramirez finished at .817 in 128 games. Next on the list was
Jhonny Peralta at .779. Of course, Ramirez isn’t much of a shortstop. He’s also had problems staying healthy the last two years. Ideally, Ramirez will sign as a third baseman this winter, though there aren’t many obvious fits for him there (Boston? The White Sox? San Francisco?). The Dodgers aren’t expected to make much of an effort to keep him. The Yankees could sign him as a shortstop with the idea of shifting him later. I could also see the Astros stepping up and making a big play for him if his market proves quieter than expected. His talent should earn him $120 million for six years, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up having to settle for a five-year, $80 million contract because of the position/injury issues.
5.
James Shields (RHP Royals, 33): Shields doesn’t just make 30 starts every year: he’s racked up 33 or 34 in seven straight seasons. He’s never been hurt as a major leaguer, and while his strikeout rate has dipped some the last two years, he’s throwing harder than he used to with the Rays. Besides, he hasn’t needed to go for strikeouts with that outfield behind him. Shields’ rough postseason has cast doubts over whether he’ll get a nine-figure contract, but I’m guessing some team goes $100 million for five years. The Red Sox are getting talked up as a popular suitor. I imagine the Angels would love to have him if they can pull it off and stay under the luxury tax. The Cubs and Yankees could also make bids if they get spurned by Scherzer and Lester.