2014 Rookie 1.09 (Post NFL Draft) (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

2014 Rookie 1.01 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.02 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.03 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.04 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.05 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.06 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.07 (Post NFL Draft)

2014 Rookie 1.08 (Post NFL Draft)Standard Scoring

1.01 WR Sammy Watkins, Bills (52%)

1.02 WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers (46%)

1.03 RB Bishop Sankey, Titans (59%)

1.04 WR Brandin Cooks, Saints (28%)

1.05 RB Carlos Hyde, 49ers (40%)

1.06 WR Odell Beckham Jr., N.Y. Giants (40%)

1.07 TE Eric Ebron, Lions (19%)

1.08 WR Jordan Matthews, Eagles (23%)

PPR Scoring

1.01 WR Sammy Watkins, Bills (76%)

1.02 WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers (76%)

1.03 RB Bishop Sankey, Titans (36%)

1.04 WR Brandin Cooks, Saints (55%)

1.05 WR Odell Beckham Jr., N.Y. Giants (46%)

1.06 TE Eric Ebron, Lions (30%)
1.07 WR Jordan Matthews, Eagles (31%)

1.08 RB Carlos Hyde, 49ers (42%)

Start 2 QB Scoring

1.01 WR Sammy Watkins, Bills (23%)

1.02 QB Johnny Manziel, Browns (23%)

1.03 WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers (25%)

1.04 QB Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings (20%)

1.05 QB Blake Bortles, Jaguars (22%)

1.06 RB Bishop Sankey, Titans (20%)

1.07 WR Brandin Cooks, Saints (22%)

1.08 WR Odell Beckham Jr., N.Y. Giants (18%)

TE Premium (1.5 PPR) Scoring

1.01 WR Sammy Watkins, Bills (49%)

1.02 WR Mike Evans, Buccaneers (41%)

1.03 TE Eric Ebron, Lions (40%)

1.04 RB Bishop Sankey, Titans (26%)

1.05 WR Brandin Cooks, Saints (32%)

1.06 WR Odell Beckham Jr., N.Y. Giants (29%)

1.07 RB Carlos Hyde, 49ers (22%)

1.08 WR Jordan Matthews, Eagles (20%)

 

[Shanahanigans]

I personally would take Mason at this point in PPR, because I think there is a relatively big drop from him to Hill, Sims, and Freeman. But I can't blame people who want a WR like Latimer, Adams, Benjamin or Lee provided they are sold on their skills. I feel like Robinson is a big reach given the people that are still on the board.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Also, I think Sims, West and Williams should be added to the PPR poll sooner than later. I would put them all ahead of Freeman who is already on there.

 

[Faust]

Also, I think Sims, West and Williams should be added to the PPR poll sooner than later. I would put them all ahead of Freeman who is already on there.

I appreciate the feedback, as that commentary is what makes these polls better. I understand the desire to see Sims and West added to the PPR polls soon, as they were both regarded as having good pass catching skills coming into the NFL; however, that isn't the same evaluation that seems to be the consensus for Andre Williams, who is regarded as having a much more limited impact in the pass catching aspects of his game.

Freeman also seems to be a popular "fantasy football expert" consensus RB ahead of Sims, West, and Williams - so that is why I had included him in the polls ahead of those players. I do know that some have the view that Freeman isn't a top RB prospect, and could be supplanted by a RB drafted in 2015 or 2016, so they don't see him as a player with the value relative to his current ADP and rankings.

 

[Faust]

I am drawing the players to be added from these sources:

Keeper/Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Dynasty Top 50 Rookies

 

[starks]

Cooks at 1.04, I just don't trust it. I feel like DB has 2 more good years left and then you are at the mercy of whomever they decide to draft or bring in on FA. Who knows.

 

[spider321]

Cooks at 1.04, I just don't trust it. I feel like DB has 2 more good years left and then you are at the mercy of whomever they decide to draft or bring in on FA. Who knows.

...couldn't think of a Saints' WR with the initials "DB".

Does "Brees" really take that long to type?

 

[starks]

Cooks at 1.04, I just don't trust it. I feel like DB has 2 more good years left and then you are at the mercy of whomever they decide to draft or bring in on FA. Who knows.

...couldn't think of a Saints' WR with the initials "DB".

Does "Brees" really take that long to type?

Great question. No.

 

[loqutis]

Clearly I'm a lot higher on Marqise Lee than most people.

 

[loqutis]

Cooks at 1.04, I just don't trust it. I feel like DB has 2 more good years left and then you are at the mercy of whomever they decide to draft or bring in on FA. Who knows.

...couldn't think of a Saints' WR with the initials "DB".

Does "Brees" really take that long to type?

Great question. No.

It does when you spell it Breeze and ever grammar nazi jumps on you. So you say F it. I'm not going to look his name up on google. DB it is.

 

[jmo87usc]

I personally would take Mason at this point in PPR, because I think there is a relatively big drop from him to Hill, Sims, and Freeman. But I can't blame people who want a WR like Latimer, Adams, Benjamin or Lee provided they are sold on their skills. I feel like Robinson is a big reach given the people that are still on the board.

I don't see the big drop from mason to Hill. In fact I like Hill more even in ppr. That's mostly because of landing spots though. I think Hill will get much more opportunity than Mason. Mason is probably more talented but talent doesn't necessarily always win out in fantasy. I don't trust Fisher to use mason as much as I trust the bengals to use hill. Just a feeling

 

[Milkman]

How is Hill going to catch passes on 3rd down with Gio clearly the favorite for 3rd down duties? Hill is going to get GL work and some limited touches on 1st and 2nd down but I don't see him catching that many passes in his current situation.

 

[jmo87usc]

How is Hill going to catch passes on 3rd down with Gio clearly the favorite for 3rd down duties? Hill is going to get GL work and some limited touches on 1st and 2nd down but I don't see him catching that many passes in his current situation.

I don't think Hill has to catch many passes to be valuable in ppr. If he gets the 200 carries that Green Ellis got, I can see 1000 yards and maybe 8-12 TDs. Not sure mason will be able to match that score even in ppr. At least not for a year or two. I think Hill can reach those numbers right out of the gate.

 

[Biabreakable]

If Hill has 200 carries and gets 1k yards that would be at 5ypc. While I think that is possible I also think it is unlikely, as the league average was 4.2 in 2013. The league average was 4.3 in 2011 and 2013.

The Bengals as a team had 3.6ypc Bernard had 4.1ypc. That average was dragged down by Dalton running 61 times at 3ypc and BJGE 220 at 3.4 so it should improve.

2012 Bengals 430ra at 4.1ypc BJGE 278 at 3.9

2011 Bengals 455ra at 3.9 Benson 273 at 3.9

I would estimate that Hill as a starter gets 3.9-4.3ypc as a rookie.

I did an earlier projection for how RB carries might be split between Hill/Gio

Even Split would be 200-225 carries each 780-860ydsat 3.9 to 878-968 at 4.3

A 60/40 split would be 240-270 carries (as the 55-60%) 936-1053 yards at 3.9 or 1032-1161 at 4.3ypc if Hill got the majority or 160-180 carries (as the 45-40%) 624-702yds at 3.9 or 688-774 yards if Hill got the smaller part of the split.

It is also possible that BJGE who will be 29 years old July 2nd still gets 100 or so carries which would eat into Hills opportunity.

Eddie Lacy averaged 4.1ypc as a rookie. Anything over 4.1 would be outstanding.

 

[jmo87usc]

If Hill has 200 carries and gets 1k yards that would be at 5ypc. While I think that is possible I also think it is unlikely, as the league average was 4.2 in 2013. The league average was 4.3 in 2011 and 2013.

The Bengals as a team had 3.6ypc Bernard had 4.1ypc. That average was dragged down by Dalton running 61 times at 3ypc and BJGE 220 at 3.4 so it should improve.

2012 Bengals 430ra at 4.1ypc BJGE 278 at 3.9

2011 Bengals 455ra at 3.9 Benson 273 at 3.9

I would estimate that Hill as a starter gets 3.9-4.3ypc as a rookie.

I did an earlier projection for how RB carries might be split between Hill/Gio

Even Split would be 200-225 carries each 780-860ydsat 3.9 to 878-968 at 4.3

A 60/40 split would be 240-270 carries (as the 55-60%) 936-1053 yards at 3.9 or 1032-1161 at 4.3ypc if Hill got the majority or 160-180 carries (as the 45-40%) 624-702yds at 3.9 or 688-774 yards if Hill got the smaller part of the split.

It is also possible that BJGE who will be 29 years old July 2nd still gets 100 or so carries which would eat into Hills opportunity.

Eddie Lacy averaged 4.1ypc as a rookie. Anything over 4.1 would be outstanding.

That's a very fair and well thought out idea for Hill's projected stats. I really wasn't trying to say he will average 5ypc even though that's what it equated to. I should have been more clear about ball parking his numbers around 200 carries or so, around a thousand yards give or take 100, and 8-12 Tds. I expect the Bengals to run more and I don't expect Dalton to throw over 550 times again. Their defense is too good for that. I can see Gio getting 150-200 carries, Hill getting close to 200 and Green Ellis getting up to 50. I think the Rushing attempts will be closer to 450 for the team and passing attempts around the same. Just my hunch though. Plus if Gio gets hurt, I think Hill can be a three down back.

That being said, if you look at St. Louis stats from 2013, I'm a little more worried about what is available for Mason. For him to be more valuable than Hill, you would need him to supplant Zac Stacy as the starter and get the bulk of the carries. This could happen eventually, I just don't see it this year. I think Mason's best case this year is about 100 carries for 450 yards and 20 catches for 150 yards 8 total TDs. Benny Cunningham is a wildcard in this equation too. I'm not worried about Pead, but Cunningham could be in line to cut into mason's touches. He looked pretty solid last year. That situation is just too risky for me.

 

[Shanahanigans]

If Hill has 200 carries and gets 1k yards that would be at 5ypc. While I think that is possible I also think it is unlikely, as the league average was 4.2 in 2013. The league average was 4.3 in 2011 and 2013.

The Bengals as a team had 3.6ypc Bernard had 4.1ypc. That average was dragged down by Dalton running 61 times at 3ypc and BJGE 220 at 3.4 so it should improve.

2012 Bengals 430ra at 4.1ypc BJGE 278 at 3.9

2011 Bengals 455ra at 3.9 Benson 273 at 3.9

I would estimate that Hill as a starter gets 3.9-4.3ypc as a rookie.

I did an earlier projection for how RB carries might be split between Hill/Gio

Even Split would be 200-225 carries each 780-860ydsat 3.9 to 878-968 at 4.3

A 60/40 split would be 240-270 carries (as the 55-60%) 936-1053 yards at 3.9 or 1032-1161 at 4.3ypc if Hill got the majority or 160-180 carries (as the 45-40%) 624-702yds at 3.9 or 688-774 yards if Hill got the smaller part of the split.

It is also possible that BJGE who will be 29 years old July 2nd still gets 100 or so carries which would eat into Hills opportunity.

Eddie Lacy averaged 4.1ypc as a rookie. Anything over 4.1 would be outstanding.

That's a very fair and well thought out idea for Hill's projected stats. I really wasn't trying to say he will average 5ypc even though that's what it equated to. I should have been more clear about ball parking his numbers around 200 carries or so, around a thousand yards give or take 100, and 8-12 Tds. I expect the Bengals to run more and I don't expect Dalton to throw over 550 times again. Their defense is too good for that. I can see Gio getting 150-200 carries, Hill getting close to 200 and Green Ellis getting up to 50. I think the Rushing attempts will be closer to 450 for the team and passing attempts around the same. Just my hunch though. Plus if Gio gets hurt, I think Hill can be a three down back.

That being said, if you look at St. Louis stats from 2013, I'm a little more worried about what is available for Mason. For him to be more valuable than Hill, you would need him to supplant Zac Stacy as the starter and get the bulk of the carries. This could happen eventually, I just don't see it this year. I think Mason's best case this year is about 100 carries for 450 yards and 20 catches for 150 yards 8 total TDs. Benny Cunningham is a wildcard in this equation too. I'm not worried about Pead, but Cunningham could be in line to cut into mason's touches. He looked pretty solid last year. That situation is just too risky for me.

I am basing my projections almost entirely on talent over situation. I have followed that philosophy nearly my entire fantasy career, and in general it works out for the best. There are some notable exceptions, Jonathan Stewart being the best, of players I think had tremendous talent that were never really able to overcome their situation. And there are notable exceptions of players whose situation overcame their lack of talent, Knowshon Moreno last year is the first that comes to mind. But I feel the cream usually rises to the top, and it is better to draft the player that you feel is most talented regardless of situation.

This in mind, I like Mason a lot more than Hill. Not that I am super high on either, but I watched damn near every LSU game last year and came away thoroughly unimpressed with Hill. He reminds me of Beanie Wells, a guy who I was also very low on. Beyond that, he has legitimate character concerns, has Gio there to cap his value, and will most likely catch very few passes (I only play PPR). So, although I do still have Hill as the #4 RB, I think he is far below Sankey, Hyde, and Mason. I even go back and forth between him and Sims who I have at #5.

 

[Biabreakable]

If Hill has 200 carries and gets 1k yards that would be at 5ypc. While I think that is possible I also think it is unlikely, as the league average was 4.2 in 2013. The league average was 4.3 in 2011 and 2013.

The Bengals as a team had 3.6ypc Bernard had 4.1ypc. That average was dragged down by Dalton running 61 times at 3ypc and BJGE 220 at 3.4 so it should improve.

2012 Bengals 430ra at 4.1ypc BJGE 278 at 3.9

2011 Bengals 455ra at 3.9 Benson 273 at 3.9

I would estimate that Hill as a starter gets 3.9-4.3ypc as a rookie.

I did an earlier projection for how RB carries might be split between Hill/Gio

Even Split would be 200-225 carries each 780-860ydsat 3.9 to 878-968 at 4.3

A 60/40 split would be 240-270 carries (as the 55-60%) 936-1053 yards at 3.9 or 1032-1161 at 4.3ypc if Hill got the majority or 160-180 carries (as the 45-40%) 624-702yds at 3.9 or 688-774 yards if Hill got the smaller part of the split.

It is also possible that BJGE who will be 29 years old July 2nd still gets 100 or so carries which would eat into Hills opportunity.

Eddie Lacy averaged 4.1ypc as a rookie. Anything over 4.1 would be outstanding.

That's a very fair and well thought out idea for Hill's projected stats. I really wasn't trying to say he will average 5ypc even though that's what it equated to. I should have been more clear about ball parking his numbers around 200 carries or so, around a thousand yards give or take 100, and 8-12 Tds. I expect the Bengals to run more and I don't expect Dalton to throw over 550 times again. Their defense is too good for that. I can see Gio getting 150-200 carries, Hill getting close to 200 and Green Ellis getting up to 50. I think the Rushing attempts will be closer to 450 for the team and passing attempts around the same. Just my hunch though. Plus if Gio gets hurt, I think Hill can be a three down back.

That being said, if you look at St. Louis stats from 2013, I'm a little more worried about what is available for Mason. For him to be more valuable than Hill, you would need him to supplant Zac Stacy as the starter and get the bulk of the carries. This could happen eventually, I just don't see it this year. I think Mason's best case this year is about 100 carries for 450 yards and 20 catches for 150 yards 8 total TDs. Benny Cunningham is a wildcard in this equation too. I'm not worried about Pead, but Cunningham could be in line to cut into mason's touches. He looked pretty solid last year. That situation is just too risky for me.

I hear you as far as comparing Hill to Mason. In that sense Hill may be ahead of Mason as at least he seems more certain to get some playing time where as Mason is in a situation where the coaches for the most part have leaned on one RB if they can.

I have seen Hill make some bad choices on pass protection assignments and fail to pick up the blitzer a few times. But he is not as poor in this area as Mason is. The few times I have seen Mason in that situation he looks pretty lost as to who to pick up and he ends up blocking no one at all.

As receivers I think Hill is more proven, but from what I have seen Mason can catch alright. Better than he blocks right now at least.

So in the short term it looks like Hill has slightly better opportunity.

Who they are competing against for playing time is also a challenge for both RB as I think Bernard and Stacy are quality players. I do not see Hill ever displacing Bernard but I could see Mason replacing Stacy, maybe in 2015. So longer term outlook I think favors Mason slightly.

I have them both very close, at the end of the 2nd tier of players. But I could see having Hill over Mason based on short term opportunity. I have Mason ahead of him because I liked his talent more than Hills.

These are the 1st tier players not yet taken I have over either Hill or Mason or Hyde for that matter-

WR Marqise Lee 39 JAX 22
QB Teddy Bridgewater 32 MIN 21
WR Kelvin Benjamin 28 CAR 23
WR Davonte Adams 53 GB 21
WR Allen Robinson 61 JAX 20

 

[bostonfred]

Rookie optimism reigns supreme this time of year. It is entirely possible that hill, mason, freeman, sims, west and williams all become fantasy relevant. It is at least as likely that none of them ever emerge as legit fantasy starters. You can make a case for any of them being the most talented of the bunch, and plenty of people have different favorites in this group.

But of them, only freeman looks like he has a clear path to rushing, receiving and scoring tds in 2014 without help. And atlants is arguably the best situation to play in. He's good in pass protection so he could start producimg as soon as they're ready to hand him the reins. He plays for an offensive team in a relatively soft defensive division. And even moderate success could help him to lock down the job because the team seems to like smallish all purpose backs.

I can understand not liking him at pick 9, although we've reached the point where almost all of these guys are interchangeable. I can understand feeling like his upside is capped by his lack of high end speed or size. But he has check marks in all of the important columns for fantasy production, and I think he's the clear best rb pick of the bunch.

 

[stp-d]

Clearly I'm a lot higher on Marqise Lee than most people.

As am I. It seems there is a new rookie getting hyped every week surpassing him. At this rate he should be on your leagues waivers in 6 weeks. We can only hope!

 

[Slapdash]

Good discussion on the rookie RBs. I also am higher on Mason than most. His competition and pass protection problems are going to make it difficult to get on the field year one. I think he may be the best runner in the draft and that talent will shine through, eventually.

 

[matttyl]

Not sure this is the place to post it, but with all the rookie value talk, it's as good of a place as any. My league's (standard league scoring, 1 QB) draft is coincidentally also on pick #9, and both Ebron and Hyde are still there. I have the #14 and #15 picks, and I know neither will still be there by then. Worth trading that pair to move up? It would be like trading 2 of Mason, Hill, Freeman, Adams and Lee to get one of Hyde or Ebron.

 

[Milkman]

Adams is better than both of them........

 

[stp-d]

If you see Hyde as the future SF starter or you think Efron is the next top 5 TE, then hell yeah, move up. I'd be happy with Mason & Lee though

 

[Faust]

Tuesday bump.

 

[Biabreakable]

100 votes would be nice. There is still a close contest between Mason and Hill in the standard poll right now that could go either way.

I personally think Marqise Lee has a higher upside than Davonte Adams who appears to be pulling away in the PPR poll at 21 to 13 votes at this point. But I can understand people favoring Rodgers over Bortles. That may be better choice all things considered. I have them in the same tier.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Meant to vote for Adams in ppr. I checked Latimer (subconsciously I guess).

Williams is top 8-10 non-ppr for me. I'm the only one who voted for him.

 

[bostonfred]

ppr players overestimate the dynasty value of good but not great receivers in non ppr formats.

 

[Shanahanigans]

ppr players overestimate the dynasty value of good but not great receivers in non ppr formats.

Totally agree with this. I've been playing ppr for well over a decade and subscribe to the philosophy of "you can never have too many rbs". It's just so much easier to find a wr3 than it is to find rb2.

 

[Biabreakable]

ppr players overestimate the dynasty value of good but not great receivers in non ppr formats.

Totally agree with this. I've been playing ppr for well over a decade and subscribe to the philosophy of "you can never have too many rbs". It's just so much easier to find a wr3 than it is to find rb2.

So are you guys saying that the RB options are better value because none of the remaining WR have WR2 potential?

In non ppr format the ability to catch TD is more important than receptions. So that might change which WR are considered more valuable.

 

[bostonfred]

ppr players overestimate the dynasty value of good but not great receivers in non ppr formats.

Totally agree with this. I've been playing ppr for well over a decade and subscribe to the philosophy of "you can never have too many rbs". It's just so much easier to find a wr3 than it is to find rb2.

So are you guys saying that the RB options are better value because none of the remaining WR have WR2 potential?

In non ppr format the ability to catch TD is more important than receptions. So that might change which WR are considered more valuable.

In non PPR, the top running backs are still more valuable than the top receivers. Guys like Sproles, Joique Bell and Woodhead were still OK last year, but they weren't legitimate starting options. The top running backs still distance themselves from the pack enough that it's critical to not only get backs, but get good backs and get a deep stable, too.The team that can roll out a quality running back on any given week instead of a wr at the flex spot has an advantage. A team with deep running backs has an even bigger advantage, not only because they injury proof their team, but they will have a good matchup for their running back more weeks than the team that is strong but thin at the position. Conversely, having a bundle of WR2s and WR3s doesn't really intimidate anyone, because you can only start so many of them, and it's generally harder to play matchups at WR than at RB. Receivers still have the dynasty advantage of longevity, but unless your receivers are true #1s, they don't really give much of an advantage over the other teams in your league. And in non PPR leagues, that means that the only receivers that really command stud trade value are the ones with the potential to be true difference makers each week.

A lot of the heavy posters in the dynasty threads seem to be locked in to this 1 RB, 1 WR, 4 flex PPR format or something similar to it, and that massively overvalues WRs. Stud receivers last longer than, and score every bit as much as, the top running backs, and you never have to worry about leaving good ones on your bench because you can start five of them every week and a sixth for byes and injuries. They don't get hurt as often, they don't lose all of their trade value by 27, and they let you hide a running back deficiency by filling spare parts in each week while your stud WRs carry the day.

In the more traditional formats, especially the ones used by longer lasting dynasty leagues, it's exactly the opposite. People hoard RB depth and hang on to a short list of WRs, which means that WRs are easier to trade for, and there are better players on waivers, so it's easier to hide a WR2 or WR3 deficiency with a committee. And with the incredible depth at WR, and the relative dearth of young stud RBs in the league, quality rookie RBs should never get passed up for good but not great WRs.

I made the case for Sankey over Watkins as the NFL draft was concluding, and people thought I was nuts. And you know what? I was wrong, because I didn't take into account the format that a lot of you were using and in these super WR formats you'd be nuts to pass on a young stud WR who might get you 10+ years of production that are better than the years Sankey would give you. But I still contend that in a non PPR format, Sankey is more valuable than Watkins and Evans. A young feature back with no competition on a team that's heavily invested in offensive line and plays in a weak defensive division is like gold in a 2rb/2wr/2flex non ppr format or the like. A middling guy like Davante Adams might have quality WR2 upside in a PPR format, but a guy like Devonta Freeman is far more valuable in the RB heavy formats because it's easier to find a guy who can be one of the top receivers on a good passing team than it is to find a guy who has some chance of being the feature back for a top NFL offense. They're just night and day different formats.

 

[Faust]

Wednesday bump.

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice post Fred.

My perspective is coming from playing mostly standard leagues which is my preferred format. Most of the RB are blocked in terms of opportunity. That is a pretty important factor for me. Despite liking Christine Michael a lot pre NFL draft, last season, he was worth a lot less to me without a reasonable opportunity for playing time. If you are going to draft for next season and beyond the WR seem like a wiser investment in the long run. So that is why I only have one RB in my top tier of players for 2014. Not because of a format that slants the value of the WR in the way you describe.

I do think my focus has shifted more towards PPR formats the past year or so from an evaluation stand point. Because that seems to be the most popular format right now. But my rankings are meant for standard scoring leagues not PPR.

I do think Lee, Adams, Benjamin and Robinson have WR2 potential in a standard format and consider that a tier above the RB who may not get opportunity until 2015.

At the same time I do agree in regards to the availability of WR3 prospects being a number that keeps growing, and so becomes more readily available in leagues that are using a lot of roster space hoarding RB prospects.

2013 51 players with 60+ receptions 3 RB 8 TE
2012 48 players with 60+ receptions 2 Rb 10 TE
2011 45 players with 60+ receptions 2 RB 10 TE
2010 43 players with 60+ receptions 3 RB 7 TE
2009 41 players had 60+ receptions 2 RB 10 TE
2008 40 players had 60+ receptions 2 RB 6 TE

So the pool of viable players keeps growing at both the WR and TE positions while opportunity has been shrinking for RB as the league passes more and teams use lower level investments at the RB than they used to. Instead preferring to use more RBBC which also diminishes many of these RBs value.

 

[bostonfred]

I agree about the opportunities being blocked for most of these guys. That's one of the reasons why I think devonta freeman is a clear choice here. That doesn't mean opportunity trumps talent, but when choosing between similarly talented guys, its more than just a tiebreaker. Freeman has a chance to become the rb for the falcons for the next six years. He might struggle to beat out sjax and jacquizz, he might get hurt, he might be too one dimensional and the falcons draft another guy next year. Those are all valid concerns, just like they are with most rookie backs. But he has the opportunity. And that makes him valuable.

I agree with you about some of these situations. Hyde is probably more talented, but its not head and shoulders more talented. And he isn't just logjammed behind gore, he also has to win that job and show what he can do before lattimore and co get healthy and he's got even more competition to deal with. That doesn mean hyde will never be the guy, it just means that there's a lot of risk taking him with a top 5 pick.

hill is almost worthless to me. He might be a very good back and still not be valuable in a cinci rbbc. They like bernard too much for him go have any reasonable shot at being a feature back.

West/crowell/tate is intriguing in a lottery ticket sense, but not worth discussing seriously at these early picks. Pass

Andrew williams? No thanks, even in non ppr. He has decent speed for his size/power, but no moves whatsoever, and his blocking was so insanely good in college that I don't see him making a smooth transition. And that assumes he gets a chance, with rashad jennings signed to be the lead back and wilson potentially coming back to some kind of role. He has some chance to win that job, but seems more suited to goal line duties. Pass.

That leaves mason, who only has a 2013 5th round rb to contend with for a chance to play behind a good offensive line in an emerging offense for a head coach who has two possible hall of fame rbs on his resume. that's not unattractive to me. The problem is that stacy looked good enough last year to make it masons job to fight for a role, not stacys. I slightly prefer freeman to mason, but its close enough that you can't really kick yourself if you pick wrong.

So I basically have four backs - sankey, hyde, freeman and mason - as potential first rounders. Sankey might be 1.1 in non ppr. And I start taking the other three after a handful of truly high upside wrs are off the board. For me, that includes benjamin (because I can see him being a td stud) but not quite a guy like adams (because I think he's more likely to develop into a wr2 than a wr1).

 

[Biabreakable]

I think we are seeeing things somewhat similarly Fred. I do like all of the RB you listed and from a talent perspective I think these RB are as good or better than most of the 2013 RB crop. They just did not land in as good of situation for opportunity as the RB last season did.

Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy are not clearly better RB than Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in my opinion. They just had less competition for opportunity and there are many more higher quality WR in 2014 than the WR group of 2013 was that is pushing the 2014 RB down my list. In 2013 there were only 3WR of similar value to the RB with starting opportunity. Hopkins, Patterson, Austin. Some really like Hunter and Woods as well, but they were being drafted around the turn more than solidly a top 12 pick.

Most of the 2014 WR look like better prospects to me than the 2013 group. I think it would be very tough ranking the 2014 WR group with the 2013 RB. I have tried to do that a couple times with mixed feeling about how that ends up looking. If I ranked the 2014 RB group with the 2013 WR there would be room for Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in the 1st round I think, even with their situations. Because the only WR besides the top 3 who I would also move up to the 1st round would be be Woods and Hunter. I cannot fill up the top 12 with WR/TE from the 2013 class the way I easily can with the 2014 group.

 

[jmo87usc]

I agree about the opportunities being blocked for most of these guys. That's one of the reasons why I think devonta freeman is a clear choice here. That doesn't mean opportunity trumps talent, but when choosing between similarly talented guys, its more than just a tiebreaker. Freeman has a chance to become the rb for the falcons for the next six years. He might struggle to beat out sjax and jacquizz, he might get hurt, he might be too one dimensional and the falcons draft another guy next year. Those are all valid concerns, just like they are with most rookie backs. But he has the opportunity. And that makes him valuable.

I agree with you about some of these situations. Hyde is probably more talented, but its not head and shoulders more talented. And he isn't just logjammed behind gore, he also has to win that job and show what he can do before lattimore and co get healthy and he's got even more competition to deal with. That doesn mean hyde will never be the guy, it just means that there's a lot of risk taking him with a top 5 pick.

hill is almost worthless to me. He might be a very good back and still not be valuable in a cinci rbbc. They like bernard too much for him go have any reasonable shot at being a feature back.

West/crowell/tate is intriguing in a lottery ticket sense, but not worth discussing seriously at these early picks. Pass

Andrew williams? No thanks, even in non ppr. He has decent speed for his size/power, but no moves whatsoever, and his blocking was so insanely good in college that I don't see him making a smooth transition. And that assumes he gets a chance, with rashad jennings signed to be the lead back and wilson potentially coming back to some kind of role. He has some chance to win that job, but seems more suited to goal line duties. Pass.

That leaves mason, who only has a 2013 5th round rb to contend with for a chance to play behind a good offensive line in an emerging offense for a head coach who has two possible hall of fame rbs on his resume. that's not unattractive to me. The problem is that stacy looked good enough last year to make it masons job to fight for a role, not stacys. I slightly prefer freeman to mason, but its close enough that you can't really kick yourself if you pick wrong.

So I basically have four backs - sankey, hyde, freeman and mason - as potential first rounders. Sankey might be 1.1 in non ppr. And I start taking the other three after a handful of truly high upside wrs are off the board. For me, that includes benjamin (because I can see him being a td stud) but not quite a guy like adams (because I think he's more likely to develop into a wr2 than a wr1).

I don't understand your logic here concerning Hill. Are you assuming they don't split carries like they did last year and give Bernard 300 carries? I think it's clear that Bernard is the most talented back on the team and he'll see an increase in carries, but I think there is plenty of opportunity still for Hill to be fantasy relevant.

It really comes down to what kind of value you are looking for in the draft. I drafted Hill over Mason in my draft. It was very close for me, but being in "win now mode" I wanted the back who could give me more points right away. I felt Hill had a better chance based on how they split carries in CIN last year and the fact that Stacy is the current workhorse in STL. I can see taking Mason for the future upside though. It really depends on how your team is built.

 

[bostonfred]

I see almost no way that hill is a first round redraft pick in his nfl career. I know thats a high bar, but i can see mason getting there if he blows stacy away, I can see hyde getting there if he can take the lead

role outright, and i can see freeman getting there if he plays like one of those stud 205 pounders that have had success recently.

I just don't see hill having that true stud upside, and I tnink he's priced like someone who does. I do agree that he has immediate production value, I just don't want to deal with a rbbc with two talented backs, and I can't see paying a first round dynasty pick for the opportunity. Once rookie fever wears off, his trade value will plummet and will never fully recover while bernard is there.

Its possible that a guy like freeman or mason or hyde is just a guy, or never even gets a shot to start. So they're bigger risk/reward picks.

 

[dickey moe]

I think we are seeeing things somewhat similarly Fred. I do like all of the RB you listed and from a talent perspective I think these RB are as good or better than most of the 2013 RB crop. They just did not land in as good of situation for opportunity as the RB last season did.

Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy are not clearly better RB than Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in my opinion. They just had less competition for opportunity and there are many more higher quality WR in 2014 than the WR group of 2013 was that is pushing the 2014 RB down my list. In 2013 there were only 3WR of similar value to the RB with starting opportunity. Hopkins, Patterson, Austin. Some really like Hunter and Woods as well, but they were being drafted around the turn more than solidly a top 12 pick.

Most of the 2014 WR look like better prospects to me than the 2013 group. I think it would be very tough ranking the 2014 WR group with the 2013 RB. I have tried to do that a couple times with mixed feeling about how that ends up looking. If I ranked the 2014 RB group with the 2013 WR there would be room for Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in the 1st round I think, even with their situations. Because the only WR besides the top 3 who I would also move up to the 1st round would be be Woods and Hunter. I cannot fill up the top 12 with WR/TE from the 2013 class the way I easily can with the 2014 group.

Not sure if this was intentional, but you're leaving Keenan Allen out of the 2013 WR class discussion.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think we are seeeing things somewhat similarly Fred. I do like all of the RB you listed and from a talent perspective I think these RB are as good or better than most of the 2013 RB crop. They just did not land in as good of situation for opportunity as the RB last season did.

Lacy, Bell, Ball, Stacy are not clearly better RB than Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in my opinion. They just had less competition for opportunity and there are many more higher quality WR in 2014 than the WR group of 2013 was that is pushing the 2014 RB down my list. In 2013 there were only 3WR of similar value to the RB with starting opportunity. Hopkins, Patterson, Austin. Some really like Hunter and Woods as well, but they were being drafted around the turn more than solidly a top 12 pick.

Most of the 2014 WR look like better prospects to me than the 2013 group. I think it would be very tough ranking the 2014 WR group with the 2013 RB. I have tried to do that a couple times with mixed feeling about how that ends up looking. If I ranked the 2014 RB group with the 2013 WR there would be room for Hyde, Freeman, Mason, Williams, Hill in the 1st round I think, even with their situations. Because the only WR besides the top 3 who I would also move up to the 1st round would be be Woods and Hunter. I cannot fill up the top 12 with WR/TE from the 2013 class the way I easily can with the 2014 group.

Not sure if this was intentional, but you're leaving Keenan Allen out of the 2013 WR class discussion.

Nope just slipped my mind. I incorrectly had Allen towards the end of the 1st because of concern about his injury, but otherwise he was perhaps a better prospect than Patterson, Austin and Hopkins.

I like Stedman Bailey quite a bit also but I am a bit disappointed that he tested positive for PEDs and will miss games this season because of that.

 

[Faust]

Rookie 1.10 will be posted this weekend.

I also want to say thanks to everyone who has contributed to the discussion in these threads!

 

[Faust]

Saturday bump.

 

[loqutis]

If you see Hyde as the future SF starter or you think Efron is the next top 5 TE, then hell yeah, move up. I'd be happy with Mason & Lee though

Buckeye fan here. I just never saw Hyde as an elite tent in all the years he played in Columbus. He benefited from some serious attention given to Braxton Mikker and an offensive line full if seniors. I also question the demise of Latimore in SF. Even a 85% Marcus Latimore may be better than a 100% Hyde.

 

[loqutis]

I'm also not a guy who likes to MISS on my first round dynasty draft pick. So guys like Bridgewater, M. Lee, Bortles, Manzuel, and Benjamin at #9 are going to be given a much better opportunity to excell than a guy like Hill, who will, at best, be in a committee

 

[Biabreakable]

So because of dickey moes question I realized I didn't have a record of 2013 rookie rankings anymore.

Here is the 2013 post draft list-

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=687311&hl=+post%20+draft%20+rookie%20+rankings&page=2

August 31 2013

Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter

The remaining players I consider more on watch status than players I would roster right now (depends on roster size of course).

Mike Glennon
Jordan Reed
Josh Boyce
Tavarres King
Charles Johnson
Stepfan Taylor
Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Kenjon Barner
Levine Toilolono
Marquess Wilson
Johnathan Franklin
Gavin Escobar
Nate Sudfeld
Justin Brown
Michael Cox
Aaron Mellette - perhaps Marlon Brown instead.

I don't think I had a combined ranking for 2013 pre NFL draft. I only had positional rankings. I found the RB list, but I couldn't find the WR list which is likely here somewhere. From what I remember, I was pretty busy at that time and hadn't put as much research into the WR as I would have liked to at that time.

Here is the pre draft RB list

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680905&hl=%2Bpost+%2Bdraft+%2Brookie+%2Brankings#entry15504215

Lacy
Bernard
Michael
Stacy
Franklin
Bell
Ellington
Davis
Lattimore
Ball
Randle
Gillislee
Taylor

Edited by Biabreakable, 22 April 2013 - 06:05 AM.

I do like Aaron Dobson and Quinton Patton quite a bit. But at the time of this ranking it seemed that Thompkins would get the job I was expecting Dobson to get. I valued them like WR3 with possible WR2 upside for Dobson for a season with Brady. For Patton I realize now there is not much opportunity for a slot WR in their offense. Which with recent contract commitment to Kaep and the drafting of Hyde do not appear to be changing.

I think I considered Allen to be the end of tier 1. The WR after that all look like WR3 type prospects. So I would pretty much rank a RBBC over a WR3 type career. Which is getting back a bit to what Fred was talking about I think.

 

[Faust]

Rookie 1.10 will be posted today.

 

[Faust]

CLOSED!