Hopkins is a bonafide stud. Good news is he will have a good QB from the draft to throw to him next year hopefully
I've said it before (can't remember if it was in this thread or another), but Hopkins being a super-stud is based on the Texans continuing to suck and playing from behind. He can get enough separation to put up good numbers with the crappy QB's he's got now...What's driving and will drive his performance isn't he QB play, it's the play calling because they're always behind and the Texans have to throw the ball a lot.
Anyone who wants him to keep putting up monster numbers should root for the Texans to continue to suck.
People frequently confuse volume with talent. As a Texans fan, I think Hopkins is a mediocre NFL WR1 getting beyond elite target volume (on pace for 237), frequently playing against prevent defenses. He's got 230 yards while the Texans are tied or winning and 496 while playing from behind (339 when trailing 2+ scores). Those targets will dry up if the Texans ever get to a point where they are winning games, spreading the ball around, and running out the clock (I don't see that light at the end of the tunnel, though).
I see what you mean but on the other hand he routinely makes freakishly athletic catches that go above and beyond 'mediocre NFL WR1'. He's definitely benefiting from the factors you mention but at the same time in a less 1-dimensional offense
the target quality should improve as the quantity is reduced. If he can get over his bad habit of getting flagged for OPI yet continue to demonstrate ability to get open I would think he would remain an elite option on a winning team.
Yeah, we see that logic every year. A team signs a new WR2 and people say the WR1 will get less targets, but the lighter coverage will result in more fantasy points. That's not the whole equation, especially here. When teams are no longer playing prevent defense then the yards and catches won't come as easily. The team won't just dip in passing a little bit - it'll be huge. We lead the league in passing attempts right now. Plus, that equation only theoretically works if the target quality improves at a rate that offsets the loss of targets. There is no amount of target quality improvement that would offset the drop from 237 targets to 146 (5th most targets last year). Last year the most targets was 184. To put this in perspective,
Hopkins is on pace for 29% more targets than the NFL leader last year.
Hopkins has nice hands, but he's average size at best (6'0") and below average speed (4.57). I think he's an excellent NFL WR2 and a middle of the road WR1. This won't be popular on a FF board because his garbage time stats against soft defenses make him appear elite, but I'm pretty sure it is true. Hopkins with 146 targets from an average NFL QB <<<<< Hopkins with 237 targets from Hoyer/Mallet with 45% coming in garbage time.
47% of his yards come when losing by 2+ scores. 42% of his yards come in the 4th quarter/OT. Calvin is on a 1-5 team and just caught 70 yards in OT and his splits are 23% and 28% respectively. Take away that OT and his 4th quarter yardage is only 17%.
