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***2015 San Diego Chargers - Offseason News, Notes, & Analysis*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
Craig Mager wore #25 in college. It'd be funny if Stuckey gives the number to Mager instead of Gordon because DEFENSE!!!
BoltBacker
Footballguy
1 Erving c
2 Fisher ot
3 Davis nt
4 s
5 rb/wr
6 wr/rb
What could have been.
2 Fisher ot
3 Davis nt
4 s
5 rb/wr
6 wr/rb
What could have been.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
C'mon, it's much worse than that.
Mager is ranked mostly in the 200's. Few 100's rankings. Few 300's rankings.
Roughest pick in the draft. Almost shocking.
Mager is ranked mostly in the 200's. Few 100's rankings. Few 300's rankings.
Roughest pick in the draft. Almost shocking.
cstu
Footballguy
I love the Mager pick.
There's really no good reason not to. I mean, some might say that CB isn't a position of need, or that Mager isn't that good, or that the Chargers could have traded down and still gotten him. I say: Hogwash.
Need matters so little that it should basically be ignored. The Trail Blazers picked Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan based on need. When you draft a player, you're hoping he'll have a long career with your organization. Need is something that changes drastically from year to year, or sometimes from week to week.The NFL is a dynasty league, so screw need. What matters about a bazillion times more is whether a guy can play.
So can Craig Mager play? Well, he was Second Team All-Sun Belt Conference as a senior, so yeah, I'd say he pretty much has "stud" written all over him.
You might think the middle of the third round was too early for him, but why do you think that? Because a lot of mock drafts had him going in the fourth or fifth round? It makes no sense to put any stock at all into those mock drafts on the very topic they were most wrong about. I mean, those mock drafts totally whiffed on where Mager would be drafted, so their credibility on the subject is pretty much nil.
There's no legitimate reason not to be very excited about this pick!
There's really no good reason not to. I mean, some might say that CB isn't a position of need, or that Mager isn't that good, or that the Chargers could have traded down and still gotten him. I say: Hogwash.
Need matters so little that it should basically be ignored. The Trail Blazers picked Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan based on need. When you draft a player, you're hoping he'll have a long career with your organization. Need is something that changes drastically from year to year, or sometimes from week to week.The NFL is a dynasty league, so screw need. What matters about a bazillion times more is whether a guy can play.
So can Craig Mager play? Well, he was Second Team All-Sun Belt Conference as a senior, so yeah, I'd say he pretty much has "stud" written all over him.
You might think the middle of the third round was too early for him, but why do you think that? Because a lot of mock drafts had him going in the fourth or fifth round? It makes no sense to put any stock at all into those mock drafts on the very topic they were most wrong about. I mean, those mock drafts totally whiffed on where Mager would be drafted, so their credibility on the subject is pretty much nil.
There's no legitimate reason not to be very excited about this pick!
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
GD it, that was well done.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Agreed. It's been a frustrating draft on a lot of levels, but that post made it a bit more bearable.
If the franchise was dinking around wasting Rivers late 20's like the good 'ol days it would be easier to chuckle and roll with though. Now they are wasting his mid 30's and some of us can see a beat up Fouts limping down the stretch of his career with an entire franchise on his back when you go back and watch the last half of last season. With all this talk about working out this OLman or that during the entire draft process I foolishly thought this year might be different. They are going to bludgeon Rivers into retirement and he's kind of like an old school boxer that stands in the middle of the ring and won't get out until he hears the bell even if he can't see out of either eye. In the end I hope Rivers values his health, his family, and his faith more than the $20+mil he's earned moving forward and walks away while he still can. This franchise never really deserved him and may not ever realize the opportunity they had if they simply would have protected him and lengthened his career.
We won't truly appreciate the team Telesco has built around him until Rivers is gone and it's forced to stand on it's own merit. The "Telesco years" will be hissed when brought up by a fan base that lost the career of a second HOF QB with nothing much to show for it.... and all too likely an entire franchise when it slinks back a few hours north from whence it came.
But hey, Cinco de Mayo is coming up so there's that!
If the franchise was dinking around wasting Rivers late 20's like the good 'ol days it would be easier to chuckle and roll with though. Now they are wasting his mid 30's and some of us can see a beat up Fouts limping down the stretch of his career with an entire franchise on his back when you go back and watch the last half of last season. With all this talk about working out this OLman or that during the entire draft process I foolishly thought this year might be different. They are going to bludgeon Rivers into retirement and he's kind of like an old school boxer that stands in the middle of the ring and won't get out until he hears the bell even if he can't see out of either eye. In the end I hope Rivers values his health, his family, and his faith more than the $20+mil he's earned moving forward and walks away while he still can. This franchise never really deserved him and may not ever realize the opportunity they had if they simply would have protected him and lengthened his career.
We won't truly appreciate the team Telesco has built around him until Rivers is gone and it's forced to stand on it's own merit. The "Telesco years" will be hissed when brought up by a fan base that lost the career of a second HOF QB with nothing much to show for it.... and all too likely an entire franchise when it slinks back a few hours north from whence it came.
But hey, Cinco de Mayo is coming up so there's that!
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm not following the drafts of other teams closely enough to know if any other team has had a worse draft than the Chargers. I doubt it. I know that isn't how the media pundits will see it, because they will overrate the Gordon pick.
MT stated earlier that Telesco had two great offseasons, presumably meaning his first two and reserving judgment on this one. I think the jury is very much out on that and his performance is trending downward with this draft.
MT stated earlier that Telesco had two great offseasons, presumably meaning his first two and reserving judgment on this one. I think the jury is very much out on that and his performance is trending downward with this draft.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
So, they've only spent a 1st rounder on an RB once in all that time? And he was basically a bust? Got it, thanks for helping me prove my point again.
In that time span they drafted a RB in the 1st round, two in the second round, and two in the 3rd round, and also spent big FA money on Corey Dillon. So yeah, probably best to just go ahead and admit that was a bad example rather than trying to stubbornly stick to it.
But hey, since everyone should just copy NE maybe we should note that they drafted zero 1st round QBs in that span and multiple 1st round TEs.
What are these teams doing taking guys like Luck and Rodgers in round 1? Just draft an all-time great QB I the 6th round and you're set people. It's so easy.
I don't really know what you're attempting to get at with the whole QB straw man argument, but enjoy that if it makes sense to you. It's a non-sequitur at best - pretty dumb comentary actually.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Yes, I think his first two drafts look excellent so far (though of course that is subject to future revision), and he made some good free-agent moves as well.
Six out of six players drafted in 2013 are still with the team, including three starters. Four out of six players drafted in 2014 are still with the team (five out of six are in the league), including perhaps four starters. (Verrett is a sure starter; Attaochu and Watt are very likely starters; and I've read that the team is very high on Carrethers, who got hurt last year right after the light came on for him.)
It makes no sense to try to grade the 2015 draft at this point. As a general rule, I don't like trading up; and as another general rule, I don't like taking RBs in the first round. But all general rules are made to be broken, so we have to wait and see how things play out.
I remember somebody starting a thread in 2006, after the second round of the draft, arguing that A.J. Smith be fired immediately (mid-draft!) because his first two picks of Antonio Cromartie and Marcus McNeill were so horrible.
In hindsight, firing AJ Smith after that draft may have been a good idea -- but not for that reason! The idea that you can meaningfully grade a draft before a single player from it ever fails to make a Pro Bowl is just silly.
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Tau837
Footballguy
To me it seems premature to say the first two drafts look excellent. Yes, they have at least 4 starters from those draft, and potentially a few more yet to emerge, but how many of those starters are even above average at their positions? Very few, if any. Gordon is probably going to be the first.
I like the picks on Emanuel and Philon to close the 2015 draft, and that could be Telesco's saving grace for this draft. But that is still a big if. The only way Gordon was worth the price Telesco paid is if he is a top 5-10 NFL RB and McCoy uses him like one. No guarantees on either point.
As for free agency, Telesco has made a number of good moves (Dunlap, Franklin, Flowers, DE Mathews; Woodhead, Stevie, Oliver). But he also let Vasquez walk which contributed in large part to the terrible OL play in his tenure. He also signed Donald Brown and IMO paid Jones too much this year. And we can't forget the terrible contracts for Butler and Cox. Free agency has been a mixed bag.
He still has to decide what to do about Rivers and Weddle. Now that the draft has passed, it seems likely that he will try to extend both, which would be the right move in both cases IMO.
McCoy was hired soon after Telesco, but I assume we would characterize McCoy as Telesco's hire, and he has been solid so far. As of right now, we can't really say much more than that. He hasn't been great or terrible, and he could be the Chargers head coach for the next 15 years or be on the street in 2 years.
Bottom line, it is too early to effectively pass judgment on Telesco. I guess it was MT's statement that he has had two great offseasons combined with my own frustrations over this offseason and draft that triggered this reaction from me. I certainly hope MT turns out to be right, but it seems premature to say so.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
7 starters, and 10 out of 12 picks still with the team is excellent drafting over a two year span.
Tau837
Footballguy
1. Any competent GM should be pulling out 3 starters from every draft for a team with as many holes as the Chargers.
2. You seem to be counting all of Fluker, Allen, Teo, Attouchu, Verrett, Watt, and Carrethers as starters. Attouchu, Verrett, Watt, and Carrethers to date have 10 starts between them. I think all will likely start, but you don't know that yet.
3. Someone being a starter does not in and of itself mean he was a good pick. A guy like Carrethers could become a starter as much due to the weakness of the team at his position as due to his own merits.
4. How many of these starters are better than average at their positions? I'd say none so far. Is drafting average starters the metric for successful drafting? Gordon looks like the first guy Telesco will have drafted who will be above average at his position.
5. How many starters do you think Telesco drafted in this year's draft? We know Gordon will start. I suspect that's it for the short term. So that will make up to 8 starters in 3 drafts. That doesn't look as good, does it?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Can we just trade the next 10 fourth rounders and Telesco to the Ravens for Ozzie Newsome?
... and anything else BAL might want. A month full of sunny, 70 degree days in January. The SD Zoo. Whatever it takes.
... and anything else BAL might want. A month full of sunny, 70 degree days in January. The SD Zoo. Whatever it takes.
It's amazing how much I find myself disagreeing with you about everything lately. That's a new development. For the past ten years or however long it's been, I'd agreed with most of your posts.
1. Having 50% of your draft picks become starters each year is pretty amazing. I don't think you'll find many NFL teams doing that over the long run. The Chargers certainly haven't in their pre-Telesco history. (It is a legitimate criticism that he's made only 17 picks in three years -- I'd rather the number be around 24.)
2. Those seven guys look like good bets to start; it seems you agree with this.
3. Other than in the first round, a guy being a starter does mean it was a good pick. After the third round, a guy just making the team as a backup generally means it was a good pick. Having 10 of 12 players from the last two drafts still on the roster is pretty sick.
4. It's hard to evaluate guys on just their first few snaps. But so far, I'd say Verrett looks like a star, Fluker and Allen look solidly above average with the potential to be stars, Te'o looks like he's on the verge of being solidly above average, and a number of other guys (e.g., Attaochu, Carrethers) could be solidly above average or even stars -- it's too soon to tell.
5. This is a nonsense question, but based on Telesco's history, five seems like at least as good an answer as one.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
GREAT POST
neglecting a position to the point Carrethers is your starting NT
<>
drafting an NFL caliber starting NT
Same goes for Watt. Same goes for Teo. And both Attaouchu and Verrett have spent so little time on the field it's impossible to criticize either one because it's only a guess how good they will be if they can ever stay on the field. LMAO So you are left with Fluker and Allen.
It's pretty hilarious this has to be pointed out by someone. When you look at all the different areas of need on this team I think you could have spun a special needs child around and played pin the tail on the draft board and he would have come away with at least ONE three down starter out of this draft.
Let that sink in. Telesco had six picks in this draft, but he actually used seven picks because he stole from next years draft. And he couldn't find ONE three down starter in the entire draft. Mind boggling. How do you have one of the worst interior OL's in the NFL and perhaps the worst DL in the NFL and fail to choose one guy to address either need before the 192nd pick in the draft?!
BoltBacker
Footballguy
<Peggy Bundy Voice>cstu said:
Kids, thank your GM for saving us from drafting...
1 Erving 3 DOWN C
2 Fisher 3 DOWN RT
3 Davis 3 DOWN NT
4 Ajayi Starting RB
5 Lippett WR (3 DOWN starter in '16)
6 Derron Smith 3 DOWN S
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Who could have POSSIBLY guessed there would be plenty of RBBC type backs left in the 4th round. I'm stunned!
What are the odds a RB from the 5th round of the draft or later gains more yards from scrimmage than Gordon? Honest question.
What are the odds a RB from the 5th round of the draft or later gains more yards from scrimmage than Gordon? Honest question.
You can't draft "a RB from the 5th round of the draft or later." You have to write a specific name down on the card or Goodell won't accept the pick.
There are no specific RBs from the 5th round or later who are likely to gain more yards from scrimmage than Gordon.
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cstu
Footballguy
The Chargers could have used the #17 elsewhere and drafted either Javorius Allen, Mike Davis, David Cobb, or Ajayi with the 4th they gave up.
Oh, and they would also have next year's 5th.
All I can say is that Gordon better be good.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
I don't know how much stock I put in the drafted a starter == successful drafting notion for this team.
Somebody's got to start. On a team with a talent deficiency in a number of areas (like the Chargers) it's not much of a feather in your cap to fall into a starting position because you suck less than the other guys on the team.
Good drafts are ones in which you're finding at least one pro-bowl caliber player. Telesco hasn't come close to that yet. Maybe Gordon will be. And with what they've staked on Gordon, if he's not pro-bowl caliber from pretty early on, I think Telesco will need to be shown the door.
Somebody's got to start. On a team with a talent deficiency in a number of areas (like the Chargers) it's not much of a feather in your cap to fall into a starting position because you suck less than the other guys on the team.
Good drafts are ones in which you're finding at least one pro-bowl caliber player. Telesco hasn't come close to that yet. Maybe Gordon will be. And with what they've staked on Gordon, if he's not pro-bowl caliber from pretty early on, I think Telesco will need to be shown the door.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Well, gosh! Then Telesco sure is a smart GM trading a 1st, 4th, and 5th rounder to trade up two spots for Gordon. Gordon must be really special!
I wish this was schtick on your part. If that's how far you are willing to out on a limb, your post is condemning the ineptness of Telesco much more than I ever could.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Hello, my name is Tom Telseco, and if you give me a 1st rounder, a 4th rounder, and a 5th rounder I'll give you no less that a 5th round RB!
When can we sign this guy to an extension? He sounds like a real go-getter!
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I really hope they sign
Finney©
Dismukes©
Drummond(S)
Eskridge(S)
Prewitt(S)
McCarthy(NT)
Mbu(NT)
Lott(DL)
Brown(RB) both of them
Crawford(DE)
Matias(OG)
Crisp(OT)
A lot of those guys have a shot at making the final roster imo.
Finney©
Dismukes©
Drummond(S)
Eskridge(S)
Prewitt(S)
McCarthy(NT)
Mbu(NT)
Lott(DL)
Brown(RB) both of them
Crawford(DE)
Matias(OG)
Crisp(OT)
A lot of those guys have a shot at making the final roster imo.
Pipes
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I'm not sure why people are so afraid to answer this question.
What does that mean? 10-1? 100-1? 1000-1? Or none, as in you wouldn't be willing to make a wager that Gordon is better than the rookie RB's available in the draft from the 5th round on?
Listen, I don't blame anyone for thinking this trade/pick was moronic on the part of Telesco so I'm not surprised. It just seems like there aren't enough people calling for Telesco to lose his job if they agree with me.
Pipes
Footballguy
I did answer the question. I'm saying that an injury to Gordon is the only chance a late round RB has to out rush him. I'm 100% confident in that. I honestly think you should actually see these picks in action before you jump off the ledge.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I asked what the odds were. None and 100% are not odds.
So if I were to bet you $0 you would pay me $1000 that no RB available in the 5th round or later will gain more yards from scrimmage than Gordon because you are 100% confident? Tie goes to Gordon.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I can't even figure out wtf you idiots are talking about in here, but gordon is a beast.
that said, I'd generally rather have the linemen
that said, I'd generally rather have the linemen
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I remember in 2007 somebody said it was silly to criticize the Craig Davis first round pick until we let it play out.
And in 2008 the Antoine Cason first round pick.
And in 2009 the Larry English first round pick.
And 2010 the trade up for Ryan Mathews in the first.
At some point when a GM isn't addressing obvious areas of weakness on the team through FA, trades, or the draft when does it become silly NOT to criticize them?! I'm not saying Telesco should be fired because of Gordon, I'm saying he needs to be fired for all the glaring weaknesses across the entire roster that he has failed to address as he trades picks away. Supposedly, his hands were tied because of bad contracts when he took over the team but he had enough money to address weaknesses in FA and simply chose not to do it. He's traded picks away in every single draft so he has fewer chances to acquire players through the draft, and even when he's used draft choices he hasn't chosen to use them on areas of need nearly enough.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Compelling group of UFA's he's put together so far. Who's your favorite?
Chi Chi Ariguzo, ILB, Northwester
Manny Asprilla, S, Boston College
Ben Beckwith, G, Mississippi State
Cameron Botticelli, DE, Minnesota
Tyreek Burwell, OT, Cincinnati
Cameron Clemmons, OT, Western Kentucky
Titus Davis, WR, Central Michigan
Nick Dzubnar, LB, Cal Poly
Jahwan Edwards, RB, Ball State
Eric Frohnapfel, TE, Marshall
Curtis Grant, ILB, Ohio State
Brock Hekking, OLB, Nevada
Gordon Hill, S, Sacred Heart
Josh Lambo, K, Texas A&M
John Lowdermilk, DB, Iowa
Ryan Mueller, OLB, Kansas State
Brian Parker, TE, Albany
Dreamius Smith, RB, West Virginia
Cole Stoudt, QB, Clemson
Tyrell Williams, WR, Western Oregon
Demetrious Wilson, WR, Arkansas
Chi Chi Ariguzo, ILB, Northwester
Manny Asprilla, S, Boston College
Ben Beckwith, G, Mississippi State
Cameron Botticelli, DE, Minnesota
Tyreek Burwell, OT, Cincinnati
Cameron Clemmons, OT, Western Kentucky
Titus Davis, WR, Central Michigan
Nick Dzubnar, LB, Cal Poly
Jahwan Edwards, RB, Ball State
Eric Frohnapfel, TE, Marshall
Curtis Grant, ILB, Ohio State
Brock Hekking, OLB, Nevada
Gordon Hill, S, Sacred Heart
Josh Lambo, K, Texas A&M
John Lowdermilk, DB, Iowa
Ryan Mueller, OLB, Kansas State
Brian Parker, TE, Albany
Dreamius Smith, RB, West Virginia
Cole Stoudt, QB, Clemson
Tyrell Williams, WR, Western Oregon
Demetrious Wilson, WR, Arkansas
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Boltbaker's post after last year's draft:
"I think I'm most disappointed that MIN wanted to trade up for Bridgewater and SD could have had picks #40 and #108. Instead of collecting more picks SD chose to go with fewer for the second year in a row...
Draft A
25-Verrett(CB)
50-Attaochu(OLB)
89-Watt(G)
165-Carrethers(NT)
201-Grice(RB)
240-Reese(WR)
... what if they had traded back instead of trading up?
Draft B
40-Kouandjio(LT) LT is such an important position and what a great value. Maybe his knees give out in his 2nd/3rd contract but at this price who cares?
57-Early(DE/OLB) On passing downs Ingram/Freeney should be on the field. Early has better size and can be a passing down DE or possibly move to LB.
89-Moncrief(WR) Not convinced that WR is a dire need but Moncrief is too good a player to pass on at the end of the third. Vincent Brown to the bench as a depth player where he belongs.
108-McGill(CB) Great size to cover anyone, and great value. So many CB's in this draft in a big tier after Gilbert/Dennard/Fuller slipped off the board. Still draft a starter at CB.
125-Yankey(G/C) Even if you are a Watt fan and planning on taking him here, how do you pass on Yankey?!
165-Abbrederis(WR) Just value. Raise your hand if you think Royal makes it through the season healthy. Seems like a perfect fit as a slot receiver in this offense and if you are a fan of Carrethers you can wait and still get him even if you need NT more than WR.
201-McCullers(NT) ...or Carrethers. We know McCullers would have been there but we can't be sure where Carrethers would have gone. All the NT's in this class are just run stuffing guys taking up two blockers. I don't see a lot of difference from top to bottom.
240-Leno(G/T) Yankey would start in 2014 at RG but people suggest he might be able to slide to C at some point. Leno developing in the wings to take over at G seems like a good plan. Possible backup T when Clary mercifully gets pushed off the roster.
UFA's - Marcus Roberson(CB)/Antonio Richardson(T)/James Hurst(G)/Brandon Coleman(TE)/Kelcy Quarles(DL)/Anthony Johnson(DL)/Morgan Breslin(OLB)/Christian Jones(OLB)
Be honest Charger fans, would you rather have draft A or draft B?"
"I think I'm most disappointed that MIN wanted to trade up for Bridgewater and SD could have had picks #40 and #108. Instead of collecting more picks SD chose to go with fewer for the second year in a row...
Draft A
25-Verrett(CB)
50-Attaochu(OLB)
89-Watt(G)
165-Carrethers(NT)
201-Grice(RB)
240-Reese(WR)
... what if they had traded back instead of trading up?
Draft B
40-Kouandjio(LT) LT is such an important position and what a great value. Maybe his knees give out in his 2nd/3rd contract but at this price who cares?
57-Early(DE/OLB) On passing downs Ingram/Freeney should be on the field. Early has better size and can be a passing down DE or possibly move to LB.
89-Moncrief(WR) Not convinced that WR is a dire need but Moncrief is too good a player to pass on at the end of the third. Vincent Brown to the bench as a depth player where he belongs.
108-McGill(CB) Great size to cover anyone, and great value. So many CB's in this draft in a big tier after Gilbert/Dennard/Fuller slipped off the board. Still draft a starter at CB.
125-Yankey(G/C) Even if you are a Watt fan and planning on taking him here, how do you pass on Yankey?!
165-Abbrederis(WR) Just value. Raise your hand if you think Royal makes it through the season healthy. Seems like a perfect fit as a slot receiver in this offense and if you are a fan of Carrethers you can wait and still get him even if you need NT more than WR.
201-McCullers(NT) ...or Carrethers. We know McCullers would have been there but we can't be sure where Carrethers would have gone. All the NT's in this class are just run stuffing guys taking up two blockers. I don't see a lot of difference from top to bottom.
240-Leno(G/T) Yankey would start in 2014 at RG but people suggest he might be able to slide to C at some point. Leno developing in the wings to take over at G seems like a good plan. Possible backup T when Clary mercifully gets pushed off the roster.
UFA's - Marcus Roberson(CB)/Antonio Richardson(T)/James Hurst(G)/Brandon Coleman(TE)/Kelcy Quarles(DL)/Anthony Johnson(DL)/Morgan Breslin(OLB)/Christian Jones(OLB)
Be honest Charger fans, would you rather have draft A or draft B?"
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Kouandjio was active for 1 game last year. Early had 8 total tackles on the season. Moncrief showed flashes, but since Boltbacker apparently considers Keenan Allen an average starter, he must consider Moncrief a complete bust. McGill started 1 game for an awful Raiders team and had 9 total tackles on the season. David Yankey did not play in a single game in 2014 for the Vikings.
Pipes
Footballguy
Sorry I'm not a Vegas oddsmaker. Seriously step off the ledge everything will be o.k. It's only football.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Titus Davis probably gonna be on all of my teams.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
That's what I'm talking about. Moreso defensive linemen. They keep trying to play a 3-4 with the very average Liuget and garbage up front and then wonder why their defense can't stop the run or generate any kind of pass rush. But upgrades across the offensive line are also in order, particularly if you're thinking of signing Rivers to an extension. Gordon may be good, but RB was the wrong place to spend these picks regardless, and running behind this line isn't going to do Gordon any favors.
Maybe they just wanted a flashy, marketable guy to help them from a public perception perspective in their stadium negotiations. From a total roster building perspective it's a real disappointing decision. And the subsequent choices are pretty baffling as well.
I really thought that they could of went Erving in the first but the more I look at this draft the more I'm loving these picks. I think we should be giving Telesco the benefit of the doubt because he has a good track record thus far. I feel like we got 2 solid lbs and a project for a corner.
Tau837
Footballguy
It's clear we disagree about how to assess Telesco's drafts at this point and about the approach he used in this year's draft. What other things are you disagreeing with me about? Here are some candidate topics that I have posted about:
Telesco should extend Weddle and Rivers. Disagree?
Telesco should have done more in free agency to improve the team. Disagree?
Telesco has improved the OL this offseason but the team still needs OL help. Disagree?
The team needs significant improvement in the defensive front 7, particularly at NT. Disagree?
Butler's contract has been a disaster. Disagree?
To date, McCoy has been at best a slightly above average head coach. Disagree?
Is there more?
1a. Telesco hasn't done that over the long run, either. It looks very likely that his "run" of doing it was stopped with this year's draft.
1b. One reason teams can't do it over the long run is because the act of doing it generally makes it harder to keep doing it by filling holes in the roster. One reason Telesco was able to do it in his first two drafts is because the roster was filled with holes. Now in his third offseason, he has definitely made improvements in the OL, secondary, WR, and RB groups. That's good. But the team still had significant needs, particularly in the defensive front 7, that he has not yet addressed effectively, and he has bypassed opportunities in free agency and this year's draft to do so.
2a. Yes, I agree, with the possible exception of Carrethers. Do we know the team plans for him to start? If so, why did he play just 73 snaps last season? Seems like a huge step up from that to starting.
2b. Even if Carrethers starts, it is not necessarily a credit to Telesco. Both Carrethers and Watt may/will start in large part due to a lack of better alternatives, not because they are quality solutions at those positions.
3a. OK, I can agree with the bolded as a general rule. However, context matters. Part of Telesco's success at drafting starters is directly because of the state of the roster when Telesco took over... it was easier to draft starters for that roster than it would typically be for a typical NFL roster.
3b. It also doesn't carry as much weight if said starters can't stay healthy and in the lineup. We don't really know if Attouchu or Verrett can do that yet.
3c. There is no guarantee that Williams and Williams will make the final roster this season.
3d. Also, does Sorensen really count? He was waived last August, signed to the practice squad last December, and is now on a futures contract. He seems really unlikely to ever make the final roster again. I realize that he was a 7th round pick and not much should have been expected from that pick, but it seems odd to count him as a win for Telesco in your 10 of 12 statement.
Wow, we definitely have some disagreement here.
4a. Per PFF, among OTs that played at least 25% of their teams' offensive snaps, Fluker graded out in 2013 as tied for #40 overall and #63 in pass blocking (out of 76 qualifiers) and in 2014 as tied for #56 overall and #60 in pass blocking (out of 84 qualifiers). I realize PFF grades aren't perfect, but I have a hard time believing they would be so far off if he has truly demonstrated above average play with potential to be a star. I assume some of the same issues that resulted in his poor grading led to the team's consideration of moving him inside to RG. Fluker seems to have the potential to be a really good run blocker, and I'm glad the team has him. But I see him as average at best so far. What do you base your more favorable assessment of him on?
4b. It's a bit trickier to judge WRs relative to average... does that apply to 2 x 32 = 64 WRs, meaning average would be around #32? Or do more WRs get pulled in due to prevalence of 3 WR sets? Per PFF, among WRs that played at least 25% of their teams' offensive snaps, Allen graded out as the #10 WR in 2013 and tied for #35 in 2014. His play in 2013 certainly flashed star potential, but he regressed significantly last season. IMO his skillset is that of a possession WR, and makes him a below average #1 WR and an above average #2 WR. How do you view it differently?
4c. Your assessment of Teo again seems a bit premature. He has yet to play more than 538 snaps in a season. His PFF grading improved in 2014 -- he graded out at -5.0 in 2013 and +0.7 in 2014. In 2014, that ranked him as the #23 ILB out of 60 who took at least 25% of their teams' snaps. But he earned that grade on just 465 snaps, which was 43rd among that qualifying group. Will he be able to play more snaps? If so, will he be able to maintain or improve his play while playing more? If so, I agree he will be an above average ILB. But we don't know if he can do those things yet.
4d. Agree that Verrett impressed in his limited play last season. If he can repeat that and stay healthy, he has star potential. But it is really too early to tell, since we don't know if he can do those things.
4e. Agree it is too early to judge Attaochu and Carrethers, since they played such a low number of snaps last season (182 and 73, respectively). Apparently, both will get the opportunity to play a lot more snaps this season, which will give us a much better indication.
4f. You didn't mention Watt. He played 496 snaps last season and had an overall PFF grade of -2.5. He was better at center than at guard, and it seems he is targeted to start at center this season. I think it would be foolish to think of him as even an average center at this point, since he never played the position before last season.
4g. Obviously, it is premature to assess this year's draft picks. But my prediction is that Gordon will be above average and maybe a top 5-10 player at his position. My prediction for Perryman is that he will be a part time player and will be average in that role. None of the others project as starters, much less above average starters. But I recognize all of them are wild cards to varying degrees.
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Posting in two parts to get around the limit on quotations.
As for all of the other stuff you listed, my own opinions (which I put little to no stock in when a team of pros disagree with me, at least when it comes to prospective stuff rather than hindsight stuff) are that:
Telesco should indeed extend both Weddle and Rivers.
I do not believe that the team should have been more active in free agency. ("To improve the team" is assuming your conclusion.) In general, free agency is stupid and should be avoided except to plug untenable holes. They did plug some of those holes, and could perhaps do a bit more after the draft, but I'd rather see them spend their salary cap money on Weddle and Rivers than on high-priced free agents at their going market rate from other teams. Ideally, I'd like my team to get compensatory picks due to free agency -- not to be net acquirers in free agency. (Not just because compensatory picks are good, though of course they are, but because being net acquirers while having to pay full market rates is bad.)
About the OL -- every NFL team could stand to improve at just about every position. But it's impossible not to have holes anywhere. Telesco has said that the Chargers believe that their current OL is much better than outsiders believe it to be. It might just be GM speak. But if it's an honest assessment, I would be stupid to substitute my own opinion for the team's. The team has much better info about its players than I do.
Same thing with DL. The Chargers, like pretty much every other team in the league, could stand improvement at a number of spots, including DL. But I have read that the team is very high on Carrethers -- that he started off slowly last year, but suddenly the light went on and he started to look great in practice, but that's precisely when he got injured. They are optimistic about him going into 2015, and I feel underqualified to disagree with them about about it.
Butler's contract has been a disaster ex post. It looked like a good idea ex ante. Bad luck.
I like McCoy a lot. I think he's significantly above average. I wish he'd go for it more on fourth down, do more onside kicks, etc. -- the same stuff I wish every coach would do. But I'm very happy with the selection out of the head coaching prospects that were available that year.
1b. That's a bit like criticizing a team for winning games against a weak schedule. It's more difficult against a tough schedule, but as long as you're winning games, I won't criticize you for it.
There's a bit more, but I'd have to go back and look. One thing I remember off the top of my head is when you said that trying to move to another city when your team is bad is poor timing. If you're going to have a bad team, and if you're going to move, it's best when those things line up together temporally, IMO. (Not that this really matters -- it's the thing that I happen to randomly remember, and you asked.)
As for all of the other stuff you listed, my own opinions (which I put little to no stock in when a team of pros disagree with me, at least when it comes to prospective stuff rather than hindsight stuff) are that:
Telesco should indeed extend both Weddle and Rivers.
I do not believe that the team should have been more active in free agency. ("To improve the team" is assuming your conclusion.) In general, free agency is stupid and should be avoided except to plug untenable holes. They did plug some of those holes, and could perhaps do a bit more after the draft, but I'd rather see them spend their salary cap money on Weddle and Rivers than on high-priced free agents at their going market rate from other teams. Ideally, I'd like my team to get compensatory picks due to free agency -- not to be net acquirers in free agency. (Not just because compensatory picks are good, though of course they are, but because being net acquirers while having to pay full market rates is bad.)
About the OL -- every NFL team could stand to improve at just about every position. But it's impossible not to have holes anywhere. Telesco has said that the Chargers believe that their current OL is much better than outsiders believe it to be. It might just be GM speak. But if it's an honest assessment, I would be stupid to substitute my own opinion for the team's. The team has much better info about its players than I do.
Same thing with DL. The Chargers, like pretty much every other team in the league, could stand improvement at a number of spots, including DL. But I have read that the team is very high on Carrethers -- that he started off slowly last year, but suddenly the light went on and he started to look great in practice, but that's precisely when he got injured. They are optimistic about him going into 2015, and I feel underqualified to disagree with them about about it.
Butler's contract has been a disaster ex post. It looked like a good idea ex ante. Bad luck.
I like McCoy a lot. I think he's significantly above average. I wish he'd go for it more on fourth down, do more onside kicks, etc. -- the same stuff I wish every coach would do. But I'm very happy with the selection out of the head coaching prospects that were available that year.
1a. Right, I'm not expecting Telesco to keep outperforming his peers by such a big margin indefinitely. The NFL average is that about 30% of draft picks become starters within the first few years of being drafted. Telesco appears to be up around 50% so far, maybe above that if the seven guys we named all start. That's not sustainable. He'll regress to the mean. My point was that 50% is substantially better than average and deserves praise rather than criticism. (And judging the 2015 draft right now is something I won't participate in.)
1b. That's a bit like criticizing a team for winning games against a weak schedule. It's more difficult against a tough schedule, but as long as you're winning games, I won't criticize you for it.
Big difference between may and will. It's not much of a criticism to say that somebody "may" not be a quality solution when we really don't know -- but the team may in fact know, or at least have a much better idea.
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I think it's nutty to blame a GM for player injuries. Williams, Williams, and Sorenson count by the method under consideration. It's just a trivia question, but it's still trivia-question-worthy for so many drafted players to still be on the roster.
4a. I've seen Fluker make some great plays, and haven't seen him screw up very much. He looks rather solid to me, but I put more trust into PFF's scouting than my own, so I'll defer to them and say that he probably hasn't been above average so far. But with his obvious strength and physical skills, along with an attitude and work ethic that seem very good, I'll bet that he has a solidly above average career.
4b. A top-32 receiver is definitely above average, whether there are 64 starters or more like 78 (with a number of teams using three WRs in their base offense). I think Allen is top 32. Maybe top 10, but we'll have to wait and see.
4c. This is sort of the reverse of the Fluker situation. I think Te'o is on the verge, but PFF says he's already there. To be consistent, I guess I'll defer to PFF again.
4d. Verrett is awesome.
4e. Yes.
4f. Watt looks below average to me, but passable. I didn't mention him because I was mentioning only candidates for above-averageness. Of course, I could be wrong about him, and he could be above average after all.
4g. Don't take it personally when I say that I put no stock in your evaluations of the 2015 draft class. I put no stock in my own, either.
Yeah, one is a slightly better estimate than five because we should expect Telesco to regress to the mean. He's had a ~50% hit rate over two years, while the NFL average is 30%, so a reasonable projection for Telesco in 2015 would be around 35%, which would be 1.75 starters. (Which would still be above average.)
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Tau837
Footballguy
I agree, if it was mutually exclusive, but I don't believe that to be the case. I don't believe that Telesco will need to use all of the $18M the team has available in cap space to extend Rivers and Weddle. Each of them if extended is likely to get a cap bump of at most a few million... and it's just as likely that their cap numbers could be reduced.
Has Telesco expressed similar opinions about the OL in the past? I suspect so. Of course it is GM speak. Bottom line, starting Watt at C, presumably Troutman at RG, and Fluker at RT leaves plenty of room for improvement.
I would love this to be true. But how could an objective observer believe this when he has logged 73 NFL snaps and was a 5th round draft pick? I realize late round draft picks sometimes emerge and prove to be much better than their draft position, but it doesn't happen often for 5th rounders.
Basically, I feel like you are resisting the discussion. You aren't willing to say what you think the team should do or should have done, because you defer to them as being better informed than you are. None of us (presumably) work in the NFL, and thus none of us are as well informed as the team. By your logic, the entire discussion is useless. So why participate at all?
I completely disagree with this. Butler played terribly in the 2013 season, which was the season before his extension. I questioned why everyone seemed to want to see him extended in last year's thread, and everyone seemed to want to write it off as a fluke. Well, the GM needs to be better than that. It wasn't a fluke, and that was absolutely foreseeable.
I don't believe I have criticized Telesco for his first two drafts. I have simply pointed out that to call them great is premature at this point. They may turn out to be great. They may turn out to be less than great. We cannot know that yet.
Furthermore, I have said that, while those drafts may have yielded a high number of starters, it isn't yet clear that any of them are above average.
