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2018 Elections Thread (3 Viewers)

Leroy Green said:
And I said kids from poor countries. Does that apply to you? 
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This is what you said and that is what I replied to. 

msommer said:
Leroy Green said:
So kids not knowing how to speak English is not a likely indicator of their parents immigration status? Not at all. Ok then. 
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My kids speak English very well. If they lived in the US they would be immigrants. I can say the same for most of their contemporaries from here. Just FYI
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You may later have moved the goalposts, not my concern

 
Leroy Green said:
When did I say "just looking"? I said it was an indicator. You're obviously dishonestly quoting me to bolster your argument. Not cool. 
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Nothing I have said is dishonest.  I based it on your actual words...and this is not election related any long take it elsewhere.

 
toshiba said:
To be fair you said "accurate indicator"  you might be back peddling a bit here.
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Indicator has a different meaning to you? It's not a final judgment. But of course I'm back pedaling. In the face of you being dishonest in black and white you continue to deny. I don't wish to converse with dishonest people. Let's not anymore. 

 
Leroy Green said:
Indicator has a different meaning to you? It's not a final judgment. But of course I'm back pedaling. In the face of you being dishonest in black and white you continue to deny. I don't wish to converse with dishonest people. Let's not anymore. 
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Yeah,  trust me, we're ALL dishonest here.  See ya.

 
Leroy Green said:
It's funny.  I think to Meryl Streep at that awards show bragging how she went to NJ public schools. Of course leaving out she lived in one of the richest towns in the richest counties in the world. As if her school experience and a kid in Newark or Camden was remotely similar. 
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This is why it was a dumb move when Obama nominated Meryl Streep for the Supreme Court in 2016 and why McConnell and Grassley refused to start the confirmation process on her.

 
Leroy Green said:
toshiba said:
To be fair you said "accurate indicator"  you might be back peddling a bit here.
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Indicator has a different meaning to you? It's not a final judgment. But of course I'm back pedaling. In the face of you being dishonest in black and white you continue to deny. I don't wish to converse with dishonest people. Let's not anymore. 
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Umm why are you addressing me as dishonest?  I am not the one engaged in this debate with you.

 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-update-heres-why-we-need-polls-in-red-districts-they-might-not-be-so-red/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

my favorite highlight:

Based on the number of retweets, the most shocking topline came in the Iowa 4th. Controversial GOP Rep. Steve King led Democrat J.D. Scholten just 45 percent to 44 percent. That margin was way worse for King than in previous polls, and his chances of winning plunged 19 percentage points in the Lite version of our model, which just looks at polls.
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joffer said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/house-update-heres-why-we-need-polls-in-red-districts-they-might-not-be-so-red/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

my favorite highlight:
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King is getting a LOT of heat in the wake of all the violence last week. Activists have dug up lists of companies that have donated to his campaign, forcing at least one of them to pull out (shout out to the dude with the "now the election will be won by a narrow margarine" comment).   And the head of the NRCC is distancing himself (and presumably the NRCC) too.  My guess is this isn't over, I think we're gonna see pressure on more GOP leaders and donors to renounce him.  Still an uphill climb for Scholten, but that would be one helluva upset next week.

 
TobiasFunke said:
King is getting a LOT of heat in the wake of all the violence last week. Activists have dug up lists of companies that have donated to his campaign, forcing at least one of them to pull out (shout out to the dude with the "now the election will be won by a narrow margarine" comment).   And the head of the NRCC is distancing himself (and presumably the NRCC) too.  My guess is this isn't over, I think we're gonna see pressure on more GOP leaders and donors to renounce him.  Still an uphill climb for Scholten, but that would be one helluva upset next week.
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Heard his opponent JD Scholten on Pod Save America yesterday. Impressive guy. Still probably a long shot but he has at least put himself in position to win if King's implosion continues.

 
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating plunged 4 percentage points last week amid a wave of violence, the latest troubling signal for Republican chances in upcoming midterm elections.

Forty percent of Americans approved of Trump’s performance as commander in chief, according to Gallup polling during the week ending Oct. 28. That was down from 44 percent the prior week, an unusually steep decline for the poll, which is based on a survey of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted Monday through Sunday each week.
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Bloomberg

 
timschochet said:
Wow. The most accurate pollsters from 2016 have Democrats winning the generic ballot by 17 points! 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot%3famp

If this is close to being right, we’re not talking about a blue wave; we’re talking about a blue tsunami. 
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Currently it is an outlier of the polling data.   But 6 days and the only poll that matters will occur (though technically I guess in some places it has already started)

 
timschochet said:
Wow. The most accurate pollsters from 2016 have Democrats winning the generic ballot by 17 points! 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413681-dems-lead-gop-by-17-points-on-generic-ballot%3famp

If this is close to being right, we’re not talking about a blue wave; we’re talking about a blue tsunami. 
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You know how some people show up every 60 days and tout that one poll from Rasmussen that managed to find just the right mix of confused geriatrics with landlines to nudge a Trump approval poll over 50%?

Use the averages.  Dems showing something like +8.5 overall. 

I do think Dems will win the turnout battle, but that heavy turnout for Rs will keep it from being completely catastrophic for them (60-70 seats lost kind of thing).  I'm guessing the effective margin will end up being something like +10 when the votes are counted.

I called for a gain of +52 seats (and a 1-2 seat gain for Dems in the Senate) almost a year ago, but am backing off that a bit based on the apparent impact of the Kavanaugh hearings in motivating Rs.  I think it could blunt the impact.

So barring some last-minute development I'm going to split the difference between what the best forecasters are predicting currently (+39-42) and my earlier prediction, and go with +46 seats in the House and +0 or -1 in the Senate.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
You know how some people show up ever 60 days and tout that one poll from Rasmussen that managed to find just the right mix of confused geriatrics with landlines to nudge a Trump approval poll over 50%?

Use the averages.  Dems showing something like +8.5 overall. 

I do think Dems will win the turnout battle, but that heavy turnout for Rs will keep it from being completely catastrophic for them (60-70 seats lost kind of thing) -- and that the effective margin will end up being something like +10 when the votes are counted.

I called for a gain of +52 seats (and a 1-2 seat gain for Dems in the Senate) almost a year ago, but am backing off that a bit based on the apparent impact of the Kavanaugh hearings in motivating Rs.  I think it could blunt the impact.

So barring some last-minute development I'm going to split the difference between what the best forecasters are predicting currently (+39-42) and my earlier prediction, and go with +46 seats in the House and +0 or -1 in the Senate.
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All I care about is winning the House. Doing well in the Senate is fine, but winning the House is a must. 

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
You know how some people show up ever 60 days and tout that one poll from Rasmussen that managed to find just the right mix of confused geriatrics with landlines to nudge a Trump approval poll over 50%?

Use the averages.  Dems showing something like +8.5 overall. 

I do think Dems will win the turnout battle, but that heavy turnout for Rs will keep it from being completely catastrophic for them (60-70 seats lost kind of thing) -- and that the effective margin will end up being something like +10 when the votes are counted.

I called for a gain of +52 seats (and a 1-2 seat gain for Dems in the Senate) almost a year ago, but am backing off that a bit based on the apparent impact of the Kavanaugh hearings in motivating Rs.  I think it could blunt the impact.

So barring some last-minute development I'm going to split the difference between what the best forecasters are predicting currently (+39-42) and my earlier prediction, and go with +46 seats in the House and +0 or -1 in the Senate.
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I’m of the opinion that one of the most important swing demographics in our current political atmosphere is the Jewish voter demographic. 

That demographic just swung decidedly left, and became motivated.  I’m not counting any chickens, but I’m also not counting out any possibilities right now. 

 
Henry Ford said:
I’m of the opinion that one of the most important swing demographics in our current political atmosphere is the Jewish voter demographic. 

That demographic just swung decidedly left, and became motivated.  I’m not counting any chickens, but I’m also not counting out any possibilities right now. 
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There are 5.7 million Jews in the United States. That’s not a big number. They tend to be very motivated voters in every election. The majority votes Democrat. 

They’re somewhat of a significant swing vote in Florida I suppose. 

 
timschochet said:
There are 5.7 million Jews in the United States. That’s not a big number. They tend to be very motivated voters in every election. The majority votes Democrat. 

They’re somewhat of a significant swing vote in Florida I suppose. 
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Remind me, how many votes did Trump win by? Total over multiple states?

I believe the Jewish vote in Alabama made a big difference in the special election last year.  One of the managing partners in my firm was part of the get out the vote initiative in that community, and reported a huge swing after Roy Moore’s wife’s “our lawyer is a JEW!” moment. 

 
timschochet said:
There are 5.7 million Jews in the United States. That’s not a big number. They tend to be very motivated voters in every election. The majority votes Democrat. 

They’re somewhat of a significant swing vote in Florida I suppose. 
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This was my first thought. 1.5% of the population that already votes D.

Actually looked it up because Henry generally knows stuff. But wiki shows Jews vote D pretty reliably around 70%. Maybe participation is up but my gut would be that we're talking about a segment with traditionally high participation as is. 

 
Henry Ford said:
I’m also not counting out any possibilities right now. 
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Me either.  I'm sure there's a giant range around anyone's prediction at this point, so anything is possible.  But I'd be more surprised by Rs holding the House than I would by any number of Democratic gains.

 
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prefontaine said:
This was my first thought. 1.5% of the population that already votes D.

Actually looked it up because Henry generally knows stuff. But wiki shows Jews vote D pretty reliably around 70%. Maybe participation is up but my gut would be that we're talking about a segment with traditionally high participation as is. 
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Yeah, this is all anecdotal and not “knowledge” stuff for me.  My intitial post was “I weirdly believe...” but I edited it before posting.  Probably shouldn’t have.  

There’s a big chunk of that 30% Republican that I think is swinging over.  And a million votes can be a huge difference maker. 

 
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prefontaine said:
This was my first thought. 1.5% of the population that already votes D.

Actually looked it up because Henry generally knows stuff. But wiki shows Jews vote D pretty reliably around 70%. Maybe participation is up but my gut would be that we're talking about a segment with traditionally high participation as is. 
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I can't find the link now, but Jewish vote was 70-25 for Hillary. But Trump did better than any Republican in the past 30 years, except for Romney. And he moved the embassy. 

 
Henry Ford said:
There’s a big chunk of that 30% Republican that I think is swinging over.  And a million votes can be a huge difference maker. 
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In tight races, it can be meaningful for sure.

I tend to think the biggest swing voter in this election is the non-voter who gets motivated to vote because of the craziness. That's hard to quantify in polls. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Yeah, this is all anecdotal and not “knowledge” stuff for me.  My intitial post was “I weirdly believe...” but I edited it before posting.  Probably shouldn’t have.  

There’s a big chunk of that 30% Republican that I think is swinging over.  And a million votes can be a huge difference maker. 
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Well I hope you’re right.

Anecdotally, the conservative Jews I know in Orange County aren’t switching. They’re quite happy with Trump’s support of Netanyahu’s Israel. 

 
SoBeDad said:
I can't find the link now, but Jewish vote was 70-25 for Hillary. But Trump did better than any Republican in the past 30 years, except for Romney. And he moved the embassy. 
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That stat is in the wiki link I posted as if you scroll down, it shows votes by Pres election. It doesn't show R numbers but shows the D = 70. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Yeah, this is all anecdotal and not “knowledge” stuff for me.  My intitial post was “I weirdly believe...” but I edited it before posting.  Probably shouldn’t have.  

There’s a big chunk of that 30% Republican that I think is swinging over.  And a million votes can be a huge difference maker. 
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The other thing about the Jewish vote is that is almost entirely divided according to denomination: Reform, Conservative and non-affiliated Jews are Democrats and Orthodox Jews are Republicans. So I'm not sure how much it swings.

 
prefontaine said:
In tight races, it can be meaningful for sure.

I tend to think the biggest swing voter in this election is the non-voter who gets motivated to vote because of the craziness. That's hard to quantify in polls. 
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Agreed. The “unlikely voter.” College students. 

I also think Latinos may show up more but I’ve been wrong about that before. 

 
timschochet said:
Well I hope you’re right.

Anecdotally, the conservative Jews I know in Orange County aren’t switching. They’re quite happy with Trump’s support of Netanyahu’s Israel. 
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Did you mean "conservative" or "Conservative"? Because the latter are, ironically enough, quite liberal politically.

 
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