You know how some people show up ever 60 days and tout that one poll from Rasmussen that managed to find just the right mix of confused geriatrics with landlines to nudge a Trump approval poll over 50%?
Use the averages. Dems showing something like +8.5 overall.
I do think Dems will win the turnout battle, but that heavy turnout for Rs will keep it from being completely catastrophic for them (60-70 seats lost kind of thing) -- and that the effective margin will end up being something like +10 when the votes are counted.
I
called for a gain of +52 seats (and a 1-2 seat gain for Dems in the Senate) almost a year ago, but am backing off that a bit based on the apparent impact of the Kavanaugh hearings in motivating Rs. I think it could blunt the impact.
So barring some last-minute development I'm going to split the difference between what the best forecasters are predicting currently (+39-42) and my earlier prediction, and go with +46 seats in the House and +0 or -1 in the Senate.