2019 Who surprises, who disappoints? Who rises, who falls?? (1 Viewer)

[Team Smokin']

Happens every year... Lotta hype out there for some players. I mean Tom Brady not even a QB 1 by a long shot??? He's bench or match up or bye week filler?

Sometimes ya gotta make some early waiver wire moves, sometimes ya gotta be patient. Sometimes the ship rights itself, sometimes it sinks.

Wouldn't it be nice if injuries were kept to a low impact and early recovery. Still happens every year.

I'm curious about guys like Gurley, DWill, K Johnson, A Jones, D Freeman, Carson, and Duke slated for RB 1 status or high end RB 2. Oh, that Montgomery guy from the Bears too! Him and Carson big risers. Players who may win you championships and players that disappoint. Take the bias out of ones own personal team and without hindsight who are these players? Who will we be talking about kindly getting all giddy about, and who will we call bums lol?

 

[kface]

Dalvin Cook is a top 3 rb in ppr

Justin Jackson runs away with the SD job

Antonio Brown is barely top 10

 

[grateful zed]

luck retires

lamar miller gets hurt

gordon gets reinstated

 

[Scooby1974]

luck retires

lamar miller gets hurt

gordon gets reinstated

Who wins in 2016? Please tell me isn't the Orange idiot or Hillary!

 

[Team Smokin']

Dalvin Cook is a top 3 rb in ppr

Justin Jackson runs away with the SD job

Antonio Brown is barely top 10

I see Justin on the waiver wire, but with short benches 4 in one league, and 5 in the other, tough to pull the trigger.

 

[pinkham13]

Surprise: Devontae Freeman has a top 7 RB performance in ppr. Would have been more but Bryan Hill steals goal line touches.

Disappointment: Aaron Rodgers doesn’t finish top 5. 

Riser: Justice Hill. He has the best talent in a non descript backfield. May take 4-5 games but he should take more and more touches from the other RBs.

Faller: Kerryon Johnson and Golliday just Detroit man. I’m sorry but Stafford throws a lot of picks. They can’t stop anyone either so they won’t be grinding games out.

 

[Interseptopus]

Surprise: JJAW. Seems like theres always 1 rookie wr who comes out and does very well. This year it's the guy everyone wrote off for 2019. 

Disappointment: Odell Beckham Jr. I will take a bold stance and put him finishing outside of the top 10. 

Riser: Chris Carson is the obvious pick but I'll go with Justice Hill. I think at the end of the season we are calling him a 1st round pick in 2020 redraft 

Faller:  Le'Veon Bell. Turns into a pumpkin without the Pittsburgh offense to help him out 

 

[EBF]

I'm gonna continue to drive the Deebo Samuel hype train. Gifted player on a team needing weapons. I like his chances to announce himself by the end of the season.

The Ravens have a bunch of guys whose talent + opportunity probably exceed their modest ADP: Ingram, Andrews, Hurst, and M Brown. Can't go wrong there.

For disappointments, James Conner's lofty ADP scares me a little bit and I wouldn't touch Gurley with a ten foot pole. Maybe he'll be brilliant and there is upside at his ADP, but an arthritic knee isn't something I want anywhere near my FF team. The situation > talent RBs like Mack, D Williams, Carson, and A Jones also wouldn't find their way onto one of my rosters even if I were drafting in 100 different leagues.

 

[Elevencents]

Tell me who to draft post? 

 

[Elevencents]

For disappointments, James Conner's lofty ADP scares me a little bit and I wouldn't touch Gurley with a ten foot pole. Maybe he'll be brilliant and there is upside at his ADP, but an arthritic knee isn't something I want anywhere near my FF team. The situation > talent RBs like Mack, D Williams, Carson, and A Jones also wouldn't find their way onto one of my rosters even if I were drafting in 100 different leagues.

Gurley has had an arthritic knee for at least 5 years. Didn’t stop him from being one of the best FF RB’s of all time. It’s a chronic condition that he has managed to run through but you can see acute exacerbation - ala last year. With a full offseason to heal up I have zero doubt he will be the Gurley we know but I do expect his touches to be toned down a touch. Still - 70% of Gurley’s touches last year is Top 5. Sign me up. 

 

[EBF]

Last season he was spent by the NFL playoffs. If you draft him, you risk him wearing down by the time FF playoffs roll around.

Nevermind the prospect of declining ability/effectiveness in general.

Not a risk I'm eager to take in the top 2-3 rounds.

 

[cloppbeast]

Surprise: Ty Johnson. He looks pretty good I think. CJ Anderson is fat, and I don't know what it is about Kerryon, but something bugs me about him. 

Disappointment: Jordy Nelson. He is washed up, had his worst year ever last year. Anybody hoping he comes out of retirement, well I just don't see it. May as well draft a back up kicker.

Riser: Dalvin Cook. All he has to do is stay healthy and bury that injury prone label.

Faller: Jarvis Landry. He'll have to do a lot more with his targets because he's not getting as many. I'm skeptical.  

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Players who exceed draft status

qb

rivers

Darnold

rb

sony Michel 

matt Breida 

wr

tyler boyd

 Allen Robinson

 

[rockaction]

Players who exceed draft status

rb

matt Breida

wr

 Allen Robinson

I hope you're right...

 

[Snorkelson]

Surprise- Indy offense won’t be last in the league without Luck. Houston Texans won’t bring in another back. 

Dissappointment- any te whose name doesn’t start with a K. Kelce and Kittle will be head and shoulders above the pack. Ertz will lose targets/tds to goedert/jjaw/Howard/Sanders. 

Riser- Dede Westbrook- the only game in town, he will have a nice ppr season as someone’s 3rd wr. 

Faller- CMC- I love McCaffery, but I’m worried Cam won’t be healthy, and that will impact the offense. I still wouldn’t pass him up in the top 3, but I feel a little better about kamara and Barkley. 

 

[Tanner9919]

Surprise  -Brissett finishes just outside the top 10 QBs. in Frank Reich we trust.   Giants are going to be a pleasant surprise to many. they've looked incredible in preseason.M. Gallup

disappointment - A. Jones, Joe Mixon not worth his ADP after losing 3 o-linemen, Kerryon Johnson, Drew Brees - not sure you saw the lame ducks he was throwing in preseason but...there's no doubt he's 'lost his fastball'. 

risers - S. Shepherd see reasons above ( giants will be sneaky good),  Kamara - See above, Brees isn't what he once was, Payton has hinted at more work for Kamara perhaps the reason is because Brees is slipping so we run more now, Dalvin Cook, James Conner ( Rodyney Dangerfield of RB 1s , he gets no respect), D. Montgomery's welcome party is week 1 vs. the Pack, C. Samuel.

Fallers - A. Rodgers is past his prime, hurt too often,plays in a new look offense.., A. Cooper - wildly inconsistent on a GOOD day, is hurt with fasciitis, and Gallup is heating up. i'm not a Dr, i didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night, but it's pretty clear the injury will affect Cooper for a good portion of the 2019 season. Lamar Jackson - pretty clear defenses are going to force him to throw more, and his poor completion % is his Achilles' heel. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

2019

• Who surprises - WR Dante Pettis 
  

Everyone seems to have written him off.  He's the top target for JG and he will pull-through and do OK.

• Who disappoints? - WR Ju Ju
  

He will be OK but he's going to see nothing bracket coverage all year so I don't see the numbers that some people are assuming.

• Who rises - RB Darius Guice 
  

When it happens it will happen quick.

• Who falls?? - Eli
  

When it happens it will happen quicker.

 

[NYRAGE]

I hope you're right...

How did you overlook Darnold? Shame

 

[rockaction]

How did you overlook Darnold? Shame

I took him as a given?

 

[NYRAGE]

I took him as a given?

fair enough my friend

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Dalvin Cook is a top 3 rb in ppr

Justin Jackson runs away with the SD job

Antonio Brown is barely top 10

Like the first two picks in terms of their ballsyness. Out of those two, Cook cracking the Top 3 is the most likely.

I don't understand the AB call-out. I think by any measurement (standard, PPR), AB was around the #10 WR -- Hopkins, Jones, Adams, OBJ, Thomas, Hill for sure ranked ahead, maybe even JuJu in most accounts, with Brown in a tier with Evans and Thielen. So saying he is bairly Top 10 is simply stating where his consensus rank is and always has been.

In the spirit of this thread, I think he surprises and ends up Top 5. Carr has never had a WR of his caliber, and I think the offense is set up this year to really take advantage of a quality weapon like Brown and keep Ds off-balance with credible threats in Williams, Renfrow, and Jacobs.

 

[Snorkelson]

Sound, well reasoned arguments. Very appreciated. 

 

[Casting Couch]

Gurley has had an arthritic knee for at least 5 years. Didn’t stop him from being one of the best FF RB’s of all time. It’s a chronic condition that he has managed to run through but you can see acute exacerbation - ala last year. With a full offseason to heal up I have zero doubt he will be the Gurley we know but I do expect his touches to be toned down a touch. Still - 70% of Gurley’s touches last year is Top 5. Sign me up. 

Gurley struggle mightlily at the end of last season, recognize the writing on the wall. His value will fall of a cliff,  Sell early.