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2020 Spring/Summer Severe Weather (2 Viewers)

Tornado touchdowns in central PA last night also, but not in my county.

I've lived in this house for almost 20 years and never heard the wind blowing like it did last night. It actually did sound like a "freight train". Neighbors roof blew off his garage. 

Home about 100 yds from me had every tree ( 4 ) in his yard come down. The biggest (probably 3 ft across) uprooted and fell on both of their cars. Another about a ft wide is snapped off about 5 above the ground.

We lost power for about 12 hrs

ETA.. all the bigger pine trees in the woods behind my house are down 

 
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Ned said:
I'm in DE and that's all everyone's talking about; scratch that, complaining about.  I just don't understand how folks are complaining about an alert system designed to save their lives.  Everyone's pissed because they were woken up at 3am by the tornado warnings.  # of people I know that listened to the warnings and went to the basement for cover?  1 family of 4.  

Convo I just had with my sister:

Sis: Those storms were crazy last night.  Did they wake you up?
Me: Yep that wind was crazy - I was worried about our trees (we didn't get Tornado warning in N DE).
Sis: I started getting the tornado warnings - I was like ummm do I get (son) up to go downstairs?"
Me: Ummmmmm yes wtf?
Sis: I didn't 😬

You friggin idiot.
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Yeah, it's crazy.  And it was an EF-2 tornado in DE, so it wasn't a little dinky spin up.  Not that a small tornado is anything to take lightly, either.  I saw that the meteorologist in Atlanta is getting death threats because they broke into Masters coverage to warn people of tornadoes on the ground in the area.  

 
Wednesday storm looks pretty damn impressive.  Will start in the center of the country and march east, like the last one.  

I think Friday will be another eventful day for SE PA.  Setup currently looks ripe for severe weather.  

 
Ned said:
I'm in DE and that's all everyone's talking about; scratch that, complaining about.  I just don't understand how folks are complaining about an alert system designed to save their lives.  Everyone's pissed because they were woken up at 3am by the tornado warnings.  # of people I know that listened to the warnings and went to the basement for cover?  1 family of 4.  

Convo I just had with my sister:

Sis: Those storms were crazy last night.  Did they wake you up?
Me: Yep that wind was crazy - I was worried about our trees (we didn't get Tornado warning in N DE).
Sis: I started getting the tornado warnings - I was like ummm do I get (son) up to go downstairs?"
Me: Ummmmmm yes wtf?
Sis: I didn't 😬

You friggin idiot.
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I've posted something similar in the Hurricane and Wildfire threads.  I have work disasters nationwide for almost 30-years and dealt with more situations with fatalities that I can count and almost always, it was the "we've lived here for years and it never happened before or we just ran back for one more thing".  You only get to be wrong once.  I am in the basement, under the stairs every time the sirens go off and beg everyone to do the same (or, in Hurricane and Wildfires, get out ASAP).   

 
2Young2BBald said:
I've posted something similar in the Hurricane and Wildfire threads.  I have work disasters nationwide for almost 30-years and dealt with more situations with fatalities that I can count and almost always, it was the "we've lived here for years and it never happened before or we just ran back for one more thing".  You only get to be wrong once.  I am in the basement, under the stairs every time the sirens go off and beg everyone to do the same (or, in Hurricane and Wildfires, get out ASAP).   
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Every time there's a warning that doesn't produce a disaster, people are more convinced they don't need to take them seriously.  It's crazy.  I just don't understand how people are willing to risk their lives like that.  

 
Looks like straight line winds will be the threat for SE PA on Friday.  So not as many tornado alerts.  But SLW can be just as dangerous.

 
The big storm comes together today in the central US.  No outbreak expected, with wind and hail being the main concern.  But the WI and IL border could see tornadoes if some supercells can form near the frontal boundaries.  Conditions are favorable if some supercells can develop.

Gulf coast gets a big hit tomorrow and then the east coast on Friday.  Currently, the SPC has SE PA out of any risk area, but I think it's being underplayed.  Nothing definite, but the possibility of storms still looks pretty good.  Of course, they would know better than me.  But wouldn't be surprised if this gets bumped north come tomorrow's update.

 
So after looking at the data, it looks like the NAM has SE PA just north of the instability.  But the Euro has us smack dab in it.  So that's the conflict.  I think by tomorrow, we'll know where PA stands for severe weather.  Which works out good since that's the next update.

 
TheIronSheik said:
So after looking at the data, it looks like the NAM has SE PA just north of the instability.  But the Euro has us smack dab in it.  So that's the conflict.  I think by tomorrow, we'll know where PA stands for severe weather.  Which works out good since that's the next update.
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Friday is not a good day to be on I95 especially South of Richmond

@NWSSPC: 12:53am CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Enhanced Risk: from northern florida through the mid-atlantic states http://go.usa.gov/YW34 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1118755106609074176/photo/1

 
JaxBill said:
Friday is not a good day to be on I95 especially South of Richmond

@NWSSPC: 12:53am CDT #SPC Day2 Outlook Enhanced Risk: from northern florida through the mid-atlantic states http://go.usa.gov/YW34 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1118755106609074176/photo/1
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Yup.  Rough day for the east coast tomorrow.  Looking at the models, I believe the SPC is still hedging their bets on the northern parts of the threat area.  New update for tomorrow will be out around 1, but I don't think they'll move it much.  Mainly because I think even if the threat is real, we would only be in the SLIGHT risk area.  So why not wait until tomorrow's update to wait and see?  Currently, SE PA is in the MARGINAL risk.  

Today's hot spot is the AL and MS southern portions of the states.  They are in the ENHANCED risk area.  The risk of tornadoes will really depend on how unstable the currently stable atmosphere will become.  Models are showing that it gets ripe pretty quickly today.  If there's enough shear to get some supercells out in front of the frontal boundary, these could easily produce several good sized tornadoes.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yup.  Rough day for the east coast tomorrow.  Looking at the models, I believe the SPC is still hedging their bets on the northern parts of the threat area.  New update for tomorrow will be out around 1, but I don't think they'll move it much.  Mainly because I think even if the threat is real, we would only be in the SLIGHT risk area.  So why not wait until tomorrow's update to wait and see?  Currently, SE PA is in the MARGINAL risk.  

Today's hot spot is the AL and MS southern portions of the states.  They are in the ENHANCED risk area.  The risk of tornadoes will really depend on how unstable the currently stable atmosphere will become.  Models are showing that it gets ripe pretty quickly today.  If there's enough shear to get some supercells out in front of the frontal boundary, these could easily produce several good sized tornadoes.  
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Central MS is on edge today.  We obviously get our share of these storms, but they've been talking about this one for 48 hours or so.  I'm nervous today. 

 
Another thing to point out about Friday is that, while there isn't a tremendous amount of rain forecasted from this system, the rivers in the region are already near or just shy of flood stage.  So it won't take that much rain to cause flooding issues.  And if areas see an inch to an inch and a half, that could be plenty to push rivers and creeks out of their banks.

 
Newest update for tomorrow didn't change things much.  CAPE values aren't as impressive, but shear is.  So it's kind of like, which should we believe?  

As for today, Tornado Watch already up for LA.  Looks like a new one will go up soon for MS.

 
Looks like Jackson, MS could be getting hit with a big tornado right now.  No confirmation yet, but radar signature looks like it.  Currently under a Tornado Warning.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like Jackson, MS could be getting hit with a big tornado right now.  No confirmation yet, but radar signature looks like it.  Currently under a Tornado Warning.
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Confirmed tornado on the ground.  It looked huge on radar, so it'll be interesting to hear how big this was.  And how close it was to the city. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like Jackson, MS could be getting hit with a big tornado right now.  No confirmation yet, but radar signature looks like it.  Currently under a Tornado Warning.
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Confirmed tornado on the ground.  It looked huge on radar, so it'll be interesting to hear how big this was.  And how close it was to the city. 
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I had my go bag ready - futon pad under stairs, six-pack of Tropic of Thunder, fully charged phone, and my faithful dog.  It mostly fizzled, thank goodness.

 
jb1020 said:
Central MS is on edge today.  We obviously get our share of these storms, but they've been talking about this one for 48 hours or so.  I'm nervous today. 
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All good by the reservoir here in Ridgeland.  Got turned loose from work at 2:00 this afternoon, which is pleasant.  Get a little day drinking in AND get to bed early.  Win/Win.

 
Here's your hot spot for today.  While the main focus will be on the MODERATE risk zone, anyone in the yellow or dark orange should also be ready for severe weather, as well.

Main threat today is Straight Line Winds.  Could be a few tornadoes, but the SLW's will be the biggest worry.  And keep in mind, SLW's can be as deadly as tornadoes.  People get an image of a tornado and they think "dangerous."  But with winds, they think, "No big deal."  But SLW's can cause damage that mimics that of strong tornadoes.  Areas will be obliterated and think a tornado hit them, only to find out it was actually SLW.  People will also hear the wind speeds and think "70mph winds?  That's nothing.  I've been in hurricanes."  But the difference is a SLW hits like a soundwave from an explosion.  

Stay safe.

 
We are 23 months removed from the last time we've seen a HIGH risk day.  

Going back to 1988, we've only had 4 years with no HIGH risk days (2000, 2015, 2016, 2018).

We are currently in our second longest HIGH risk category drought.

This season definitely has potential.  I don't think today will bump up to HIGH, so the drought should continue.  Next update is around 9am.

 
JaxBill said:
@NWSJacksonville: A squall line containing numerous severe t'storms will traverse southeast GA. northeast & north central FL from late morning through this afternoon. Make sure you identify a safe place to shelter at home or at work well before warnings are issued! #flwx #gawx #jaxwx @JaxReady https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/1119215403778170880/photo/1
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Tornado Watch already up for that area that the line is moving through.  I'd expect a new one to be issued for your area later this morning or early afternoon.

 
Hurricane Michael, which was the 3rd most intense Atlantic storm to ever make landfall, was officially upgraded to a Cat 5 hurricane today.  

 
Rush hour in Tampa is gonna be no bueno with this severe weather hitting 2-6 pm.  Yikes.  At least schools are out so no bus traffic, but it’s gonna be bad.

ETA: I’m working in the sticks today and heading out at 2 so I should mostly avoid it.

 
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Sounded like artillery shells dropping on my house last night at around 3AM until 5:30AM - it was just wave after wave of thunder and lightening with driving winds. Closed the schools today with flooding on roads - the lake I live on is over its bank.  Being in the area around the Lee County AL tornados - everyone was on super high alert.

 
I saw that this is the first time since February 2016 that central NC has been in MODERATE or above risk.  These will not be your everyday summer thunderstorms.

 
Mesoscale discussion up for Northern Virginia.  Most likely another Toranado Watch box coming for that area, including DC and MD.

 
Younger son left UF in Gainesville at 11 heading NW to lower Duval after I told him yesterday to leave by 9. 

Currently ahead of the storm but good thing he didn't wait 30 more minutes. 

 
JaxBill said:
Younger son left UF in Gainesville at 11 heading NW to lower Duval after I told him yesterday to leave by 9. 

Currently ahead of the storm but good thing he didn't wait 30 more minutes. 
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He made it back but got caught up in leading edge a little bit. Lesson learned hopefully. 

 
About half the eastern seaboard is under a tornado watch right now.  Could maybe another 1 or 2 push north, but this is crazy so far.

 
Mister CIA said:
All good by the reservoir here in Ridgeland.  Got turned loose from work at 2:00 this afternoon, which is pleasant.  Get a little day drinking in AND get to bed early.  Win/Win.
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We live on the Brandon side of the Rez and lost power for a few hours.  4 neighbors had shingles blown off the roof.  More than a usual storm here, but not by much.

 
What do you fellow weather :nerd:  s use for near real time storm damage info?  This  is my go-to, but hasn't been loading the last few days.  I can search the public information sites by state to get the written recaps by state, but really need the national view to try and predict where I may end up working next (and, it helps to cut through the Weather Channel over-hype too).

 
2Young2BBald said:
What do you fellow weather :nerd:  s use for near real time storm damage info?  This  is my go-to, but hasn't been loading the last few days.  I can search the public information sites by state to get the written recaps by state, but really need the national view to try and predict where I may end up working next (and, it helps to cut through the Weather Channel over-hype too).
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I don't really look too deeply into this, so I can't really give any suggestions other than that site.

 
Was hoping for more out of tomorrow's severe weather for my area, but it looks like the other week when the threat is more about the rain than the severe weather. There's still a sliver of hope for some severe weather, but right now I agree with the SPC's MARGINAL call.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Was hoping for more out of tomorrow's severe weather for my area, but it looks like the other week when the threat is more about the rain than the severe weather. There's still a sliver of hope for some severe weather, but right now I agree with the SPC's MARGINAL call.  
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Just saw some updated soundings for the area.  Wouldn't be surprised if we actually see a bump in the risk for our area in a couple of minutes.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Just saw some updated soundings for the area.  Wouldn't be surprised if we actually see a bump in the risk for our area in a couple of minutes.
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They upped the risk area, but only for areas south of us.  I guess we'll see what tomorrow's update brings.  Models show a pretty decent bowed line moving through SEPA early evening.  

 
Just saw the NWS out of Shreveport, LA is saying they will be investigating the possible path of a tornado that occurred overnight.  The possible path of that tornado could be as long as 150 MILES LONG!!!  :shock:

 
TheIronSheik said:
Just saw the NWS out of Shreveport, LA is saying they will be investigating the possible path of a tornado that occurred overnight.  The possible path of that tornado could be as long as 150 MILES LONG!!!  :shock:
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Yeah, that's the one I was referring to earlier. Ruston, LA was hit hard. LA Tech University campus took extensive damage, from what I've seen. A good bit of Ruston looks like a war zone. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
They upped the risk area, but only for areas south of us.  I guess we'll see what tomorrow's update brings.  Models show a pretty decent bowed line moving through SEPA early evening.  
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As expected, we've been upgraded to SLIGHT.  While we might see some random storms throughout the day, the main threat will be around 5 to 8.  The line that comes through looks to be fairly solid.  Wind will be the main threat, but a couple small tornadoes aren't out of the question. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
As expected, we've been upgraded to SLIGHT.  While we might see some random storms throughout the day, the main threat will be around 5 to 8.  The line that comes through looks to be fairly solid.  Wind will be the main threat, but a couple small tornadoes aren't out of the question. 
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Here's the tornado hot spot today.  Nothing overly crazy, but don't be surprised to see a couple tornado watch boxes go up for this area later this evening.

 
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Mesoscale Discussion up for a large area of the mid Atlantic, including my area.  I expect watch boxes to start populating that area soon.

 
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