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Not too proud to say I was wrong. SPC nailed this. So far these storms seem worse than yesterday. There are some nasty cells out there right now.
Must've been a warning in Flemington NJ - My wife got to daycare and she said all the kids were playing along the inside walls away from the windows. Honestly thinking about it, it's kind of scary as our daycare doesn't really have a good place to go...no basement, no fully interior rooms.
My sister posted this on Facebook ...
NWS did a survey yesterday and determined that it was not a tornado but Straight Line Winds. If I showed you pics of the EF-2 tornado that hit a county over and the damage from the SLW, most people would guess incorrectly on which damage was from what.
I'm terrified of lightning. I will not go outside when there is lightning. It always amazes me how people just go out during an electrical storm.
It's not an "increase." If you average 17, there are going to be years where you have more than 17 and years where you have less than 17. We've seen as many as 31 and as few as 5 since 2000.
Looking at models, this will be a very isolated event. Most won't see anything. But the risk of discrete supercells is what's causing the SLIGHT risk. These will have the ability to produce tornadoes. So the main threat is tornadoes, but it's also a very limited threat area. And this would not be for the rain currently moving through the Lehigh Valley.
Called it. Short break today before we have one more day in this pattern. Thursday could be the real deal with storms for our area. Right now, listed as SLIGHT for us.Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for the area. I think it's way too far south, but who knows. I know they issued one last night that was too far north and a couple hours later chopped it in half. Then eventually cancelled the whole thing. I could see a similar thing happening with this one.
Of course, every time I say that, we get hammered, so who knows.
And while the severe weather will be more south, the heavy rains will be in my area. Considering over the past 24 hours some places have seen 5+ inches of rain, more rain is no bueno. Coming into work today, a bunch of roads were flooded out. So any more rain will be bad. Even small amounts. But the WPC is saying we should be worried more about large amounts, more so than small amounts.
The flooding in South Jersey was insane. I got really lucky that I didn't just go on auto-pilot on my way to my job today, otherwise I would have been stuck in 295 for about 2 hours waiting for the flooding to subside. Even then it was quite an adventure as all of my main alternates were blocked by flooding as well. 130 was closed due to flooding. Couldn't get to the turnpike because 168 was flooded. Couldn't get back on 295 in Barrington because route 30 was flooded. I saw multiple cars in water up to their roofs who were dumb enough to try to get through the water.
And these were localized events due to the storms training. You could probably go 10 miles in any direction from those photos and just have had a normal heavy rain storm. My area barely got anything but on my drive to work, so many roads were closed because they were flooded out.
turns out the weather man was rightI am sorry you had such nice weather today, MF.
Saw some pics from the north shore of Milwaukee yesterday with a solid dark gray sky. End of days?turns out the weather man was right
haven't seen a storm like that one in years
sums it up pretty well - https://burst.com/61l7593e
if it were anything like up here... oh man.
Yeah, entire Gulf Coast should be monitoring this. What makes this difficult to even start to forecast is there's nothing to model yet. We know that that area will most likely become a tropical system once it stalls out in the GOM. But right now the models are trying to predict where the low will go when there's no actual low formed yet.
Water temps are 86-91, so if this stalls over The Gulf it could churn and gain steam. I have vacation ending Monday and have already packed a bit in case I am deployed there if wind damages are significant.
Yeah, new models are starting to come together with a consensus that TX may be off the table as a landing spot. A lot of LA could see 10+ inches of rain, if this track holds up.
