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2020 Survivor Leagues (2 Viewers)

Different kind of survivor question. In your experience have survivor pools typically gone the distance throughout the season? In the pool that I've done the past 3 years, it's been the following setup, entries, and length:

2017: 2,500-3,000 entries, 360 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 17 weeks with 4 survivors
2018: 2,500-3,000 entries, 205 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 14 weeks with 1 survivor
2019: 2,500-3,000 entries, 734 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 13 weeks with 7-way split (all lost in week 13)

2020: 2,500 entries, 445 entries left after week 5, double picks in week 3, week 7, and week 10 to end of season, will end ???

The reason I ask when it could end is, if you predict that the pool could end after 12-13 weeks, you can go all in on good teams earlier than usual. No point in saving them for weeks 13-17. Would you employ this strategy and hope that the pool gets wrapped up earlier than later? Or try to hold onto one or two good teams just in case they're needed for later? My current thought is to try and hold on to some of the top 8 teams to use at least one of them during the double picks weeks and pray for the best with the second half of the double pick.

 
Harris said:
Different kind of survivor question. In your experience have survivor pools typically gone the distance throughout the season? In the pool that I've done the past 3 years, it's been the following setup, entries, and length:

2017: 2,500-3,000 entries, 360 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 17 weeks with 4 survivors
2018: 2,500-3,000 entries, 205 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 14 weeks with 1 survivor
2019: 2,500-3,000 entries, 734 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 13 weeks with 7-way split (all lost in week 13)

2020: 2,500 entries, 445 entries left after week 5, double picks in week 3, week 7, and week 10 to end of season, will end ???

The reason I ask when it could end is, if you predict that the pool could end after 12-13 weeks, you can go all in on good teams earlier than usual. No point in saving them for weeks 13-17. Would you employ this strategy and hope that the pool gets wrapped up earlier than later? Or try to hold onto one or two good teams just in case they're needed for later? My current thought is to try and hold on to some of the top 8 teams to use at least one of them during the double picks weeks and pray for the best with the second half of the double pick.
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I'd save a couple of good teams, but when it comes to the last couple of weeks of the season, you of course gotta take into account playoff seeding. If a team is set in the seeding, they will of course most likely rest some starters. Im wondering how the new playoff format will affect teams resting starters since now only the #1 seed in each conference will get a bye, and the #2 seeds will be hosting the #7 seeds on Wild Card weekend.

Also...with that many players in your pool, Im wondering what the prize payout is, and whats the farthest you've gone? Im in a league that started with 457 and is now down to 142. Prize is about $20k.

 
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Wingnut said:
Also...with that many players in your pool, Im wondering what the prize payout is, and whats the farthest you've gone? Im in a league that started with 457 and is now down to 142. Prize is about $20k.
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Top prize is about $50k, paying down through 5th. Entries were 1/$75, 2/$125, 3/$165, 4/$200. I think previously I only ever made it to week 5 or 6, probably took some unnecessary risks in some years and had huge upsets in others. This year I started with 4 entries and luckily only put one entry on IND against JAX in week 1. My other entries from week 3 to 5 so far I have picked the same teams for all 3. Need to start diversifying at some point though.

 
I just can't trust Miami, I'm going Baltimore and New England in my 2 pools and hope Fitztragic shows up Sunday.

Used so far:

PIT, SF, IND, TB, ARZ

PIT, BUF, TB, LAR. BAL

 
Another close one with the Cowboys, why do I subject myself to this every year?  Maybe I was being punished for picking the crowd favorite.

Only four games with a spread of better than 4, and MIA EV is below 1, not many (aside from BAL) have much future value:

IND vs CIN -8 (EV 1.14 / W% 76.5% / P% 9.7%)  - Future Value: W15 vs HOU -4, W17 vs JAX -9.5

BAL @ PHI -7.5 (EV 1.13 / W% 74.8% / P% 7.1%) - Future Value: W11, W13, W15, W16, W17

NE vs DEN -10 (EV 1.11 / W% 79.5% / P% 21.8%) - Future Value: W9 @NYJ -9, W17 vs NYJ -13.5

MIA vs NYJ -10 (EV 0.92 / W% 76.9% / P% 45.5%) - Future Value: None really

Looks like you should use MIA while you can but that's most people are doing (45.5%), good EV value if NYJ can pull the upset.

I already used BAL and look like a good pick here but there are other good options.

Odds are low I'll make it to W15 so Colts are usable.

If I use NE now, the only other good option (I used KC) I'd have in W9 is ARI vs MIA -7 so I'd like to hold onto NE.

IND or MIA?  Or NE?  Ugh

 
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Lehigh98 said:
If I use NE now, the only other good option (I used KC) I'd have in W9 is ARI vs MIA -7 so I'd like to hold onto NE.
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I was gonna save NE for week 9 but after watching Tennessee thrash Buffalo Tuesday night, Im liking them at home vs Chicago that week

 
So I submitted IND as my pick at the deadline and then the picks were sent out:

Miami: 30

New England: 6

Baltimore: 2

Indianapolis: 1 

And then I got a text from the guy running it about the Colts shutting down their facility for Covid and to keep an eye out because I may need to repick as we get closer to Sunday.

I used Baltimore, I think I'd have to go New England, there's so many on Miami that any other favorite is +EV.

 
I'm going NE and hoping the Jets find a way to upset the Dolphins.  So hard to type that being a lifelong Dolphins fan.

 
Lehigh98 said:
MIA vs NYJ -10 (EV 0.92 / W% 76.9% / P% 45.5%) - Future Value: None really
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I've been reconsidering using MIA here because I do think they have future value in either weeks 11 (@DEN), 12 (@NYJ) or 13 (CIN). If they are the team that they showed last week, I would love to have them in my pocket later on during this stretch. 

Taking at hard look at MIN if Julio is out for ATL. They're struggling just as much as NYJ right now.

 
After much consideration here, I'm splitting my three entries between NE (v. DEN), MIN (v. ATL), and DET (@JAX). 

Riskiest week yet but minimum one entry will be left, with the possibility to open things up later in the season with the other two entries.

 
After being down 14 with the Cowboys and then losing Dak last week and then being down 21-0 with the Colts this week, I don't know if I can take much more of this.  Not sure if somebody up there likes me or hates me.  

I've been trying to avoid the favorite pick in case it knocks out a bunch of people but now realize not to bother when they're picking against the Jets, they suck.  Glad I avoided NE this week to save them for the Jets.

 
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I'm not sure anyone in a million years would have expected Belichick coming off of a bye to be so inept against Denver. Maybe NE's offense is really that bad except for Cam. But he was terrible too. At least Detroit rolled on for me and one entry left after MIN crashed and burned as well. 

 
This may sound crazy but I might pick philly on TNF. With how awful dallas looked last night I see this as phillys division to lose. Philly has had glimpses where they show their potential. This TNF is a home game for them against the giants who I see as a bottom 3 team. 

Anyone want to talk me of this ledge?

 
RealReactions said:
This may sound crazy but I might pick philly on TNF. With how awful dallas looked last night I see this as phillys division to lose. Philly has had glimpses where they show their potential. This TNF is a home game for them against the giants who I see as a bottom 3 team. 

Anyone want to talk me of this ledge?
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If you haven't used Buffalo, there is zero reason to go anyone other than Buffalo. 

 
travdogg said:
If you haven't used Buffalo, there is zero reason to go anyone other than Buffalo. 
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used buff week 1. Originally had colts and changed it 2 hours before kick off. Got extremely lucky with that. Looking at this weeks games it would seem a lot of people will be on NO, KC, and the Chargers. I want to save the 1st 2 and I have no faith in the chargers especially with the uncertainty the Jags are. Some weeks they are good and other weeks they are awful.

 
RealReactions said:
This may sound crazy but I might pick philly on TNF. With how awful dallas looked last night I see this as phillys division to lose. Philly has had glimpses where they show their potential. This TNF is a home game for them against the giants who I see as a bottom 3 team. 

Anyone want to talk me of this ledge?
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I had NO penciled in for a couple weeks now, but I am seriously considering swapping in Phi. I can't believe that is only a 3.5-ish spread.

 
RealReactions said:
This may sound crazy but I might pick philly on TNF. With how awful dallas looked last night I see this as phillys division to lose. Philly has had glimpses where they show their potential. This TNF is a home game for them against the giants who I see as a bottom 3 team. 

Anyone want to talk me of this ledge?
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It's a double picks week in my pool and I'm taking PHI and KC. I'm a believer in PHI after their tough showing last week.

 
RealReactions said:
This may sound crazy but I might pick philly on TNF. With how awful dallas looked last night I see this as phillys division to lose. Philly has had glimpses where they show their potential. This TNF is a home game for them against the giants who I see as a bottom 3 team. 

Anyone want to talk me of this ledge?
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Just about all of the Eagles starters are hurt, better check the injury report first.  Also, they haven't won at home yet.

The Giants are 1-5 and lost handily to PIT and SF but were within one score in their road loses to CHI, LA, and DAL.

On the other hand, since Doug Pederson became the Eagles' head coach back in 2016, the Eagles have a 5-0 record on Thursday nights. That's the best record in the NFL during that span (the Seahawks are 4-0).

 
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I was sure I was done when my Colts pick was down 21-0 but somehow I'm back, I'm not sure how much more of this I can take.

Six games with a spread of better than 4, sorted by EV:

KC @ DEN -10 (EV 1.08 / W% 78.5% / P% 10.8%) - Future Value: Lots

I already used KC

LAC vs JAX -7.5 (EV 1.04 / W% 76.3% / P% 13.1%) - Future Value: W11 vs NYJ -10.5, W16 vs DEN -6

Would prefer to wait until Ekeler is back, maybe that nice W11 matchup

NO vs CAR -7.5 (EV 1.03 / W% 75.3% / P% 12.2%) - Future Value: W11 vs ATL -6.5, W12 @ DEN -5, W16 vs MIN -6.5

Would prefer to wait for Michael, is he ever coming back?

LAR vs CHI -6 (EV 1.02 / W% 70.1% / P% 0.8%) - Future Value: W15 vs NYJ -14.5

Bears are 5-1 and both teams have been the victims of uneven performances this year.

BUF @ NYJ -13.5 (EV 1.01 / W% 84.9% / P% 48.2%) - Future Value: W17 vs MIA -7.5

I'm not sure if the Jets will even win another game.  Darnold back at practice as limited, but Gase still coaching.

PHI vs NYG -4.5 (EV 0.95 / W% 67.7% / P% 5.4%) - Future Value: W17 vs WAS -4.5

Just about all of the Eagles starters are hurt, Giants are 1-5 but were within one score in their road loses to CHI, LA, and DAL.

I hate going with the crowd and my group will probably be 75% BUF but I think that's my pick.

I'd rather pick a different team and hope for a bloodbath but I don't think the Jets can beat anybody.

 
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RealReactions said:
Philly it is for me. I just can't see them losing this game at home vs what I see is the 2nd worst team in the league.
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I'm with you on PHI and also LAC for my double pick week. Trying to set myself up nicely down the road. My plays are shaping up like this:

Used: BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (DP), LAR, DAL, DET

Current: LAC (v.JAX) & PHI (v.NYG)

Planned Through W14 (saving KC to plug in W13 or W14 for a team on a bad streak and can also move SEA up from W14) if the pool is thinning out.

Week 8: TB (@NYG)
Week 9: NE (@NYJ)
Week 10: LV (vs. DEN)
Week 11: PIT (@JAX) & NO (v.ATL)
Week 12: MIA (@NYJ) & GB (v.CHI)
Week 13: TEN (v.CLE) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & ARI (@NYG)

 
Anyone else considering TB, considering the Raiders have their OL going through COVID protocol?

I'm still leaning toward Phi, but if I had time to wait it out I'd really consider TB. I just hate to pencil that in and have the game get canceled/postponed, if Phi were my favorite. Still considering NO, as well, but I was liking them assuming Michael Thomas would be back, but that seems very iffy right now.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
Anyone else considering TB, considering the Raiders have their OL going through COVID protocol?

I'm still leaning toward Phi, but if I had time to wait it out I'd really consider TB. I just hate to pencil that in and have the game get canceled/postponed, if Phi were my favorite. Still considering NO, as well, but I was liking them assuming Michael Thomas would be back, but that seems very iffy right now.
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And as I post that, I see that Schefty is reporting the game has already been moved from 4 to 8 on Sunday. Not a big deal as it stands, but seems like an indicator that it could get moved another day or two, or postponed.

 
Does anyone know what happens in MFL or in general with regards to survivor pools if you pick a game that gets postponed to a different week?

 
Faust said:
Does anyone know what happens in MFL or in general with regards to survivor pools if you pick a game that gets postponed to a different week?
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I certainly don't know about MFL specifically, but I can't imagine that would count as a win in any survivor pool. It would almost be a free win. I feel like most pools/sites (aside from ties) are "either your team gets the win, or you're out", no?

Actually, I was kind of thinking about that as a 'cancel' as opposed to 'postponed'. But, that said, if a game is postponed (in this COVID world) there's no guarantee it wouldn't get canceled later. I would have to think the best way to handle that this year is a Loss.

 
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Crap... Just thought of another deterrent from the NO pick... The Teddy Bridgewater "revenge" factor. He could get that team fired up to get behind him to beat the team that let him walk. Almost 100% I'm going with Philly now...

It may seem trivial, but when making survivor picks I am always look for as many contributing factors as possible. The big ones are division games, and road games, but little things like this are in consideration, too.

 
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Harris said:
Different kind of survivor question. In your experience have survivor pools typically gone the distance throughout the season? In the pool that I've done the past 3 years, it's been the following setup, entries, and length:

2017: 2,500-3,000 entries, 360 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 17 weeks with 4 survivors
2018: 2,500-3,000 entries, 205 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 14 weeks with 1 survivor
2019: 2,500-3,000 entries, 734 left after week 5, double picks begin week 10, ended after 13 weeks with 7-way split (all lost in week 13)

2020: 2,500 entries, 445 entries left after week 5, double picks in week 3, week 7, and week 10 to end of season, will end ???

The reason I ask when it could end is, if you predict that the pool could end after 12-13 weeks, you can go all in on good teams earlier than usual. No point in saving them for weeks 13-17. Would you employ this strategy and hope that the pool gets wrapped up earlier than later? Or try to hold onto one or two good teams just in case they're needed for later? My current thought is to try and hold on to some of the top 8 teams to use at least one of them during the double picks weeks and pray for the best with the second half of the double pick.
Click to expand...
I think it's too hard to say for sure. There are big differences in rules, pool size, etc.

A pool with 20, 100, 750 (mine), or 3k entries (yours), or 5k+ are all very different. Then you factor in rules, like your double pick, or pools that have more than one 'life', and there's no way to make a general 'rule' or 'strategy'. You just have to look at your pool's settings/rules and go from there.

If your pool's history typically ends after 13-14 weeks, then I think your thinking is wise... Devalue the "remaining value" of teams with juicy matchups in weeks 15-17.

 
Harris said:
I'm with you on PHI and also LAC for my double pick week. Trying to set myself up nicely down the road. My plays are shaping up like this:

Used: BAL, BUF, IND/CLE (DP), LAR, DAL, DET

Current: LAC (v.JAX) & PHI (v.NYG)

Planned Through W14 (saving KC to plug in W13 or W14 for a team on a bad streak and can also move SEA up from W14) if the pool is thinning out.

Week 8: TB (@NYG)
Week 9: NE (@NYJ)
Week 10: LV (vs. DEN)
Week 11: PIT (@JAX) & NO (v.ATL)
Week 12: MIA (@NYJ) & GB (v.CHI)
Week 13: TEN (v.CLE) & MIN (v.JAX)
Week 14: SEA (v.NYJ) & ARI (@NYG)
Click to expand...
Used: Buf, Ind, Dal, Az, Mia, LAR

My plan using teams on the left as the pick (this assumes no canceled games nor massive injuries impacting teams):

Week 7 - NO 

Week 8 -TB @ NYG

Week 9 - KC vs CAR

Week 10 - GB vs Jax, 

Week 11 - LAC vs NYJ

Week 12 - CIN vs NYG

Week 13 - Pitt vs Was

Week 14 - SEA vs NYJ

Week 15 - BAL vs Jax

Week 16 - LV vs Mia

Week 17 - NE vs NYJ

Thanksgiving week is rough. Also considering the Browns @ Jax or Det vs Hous on Turkeyday but their sub .500 record is concerning. 

 
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Was touch and go for a while with the Chargers but the better team came out in the end. No big upsets this week in my pool as only 7/333 people had the Seahawks. 10 have the Rams so still some hope for tonight.

Feeling pretty good over the next three weeks with TB (@NYG), NE (@NYJ), and LV (v.DEN). If NE loses at the Jets then, well, fine.

 
Harris said:
Was touch and go for a while with the Chargers but the better team came out in the end. No big upsets this week in my pool as only 7/333 people had the Seahawks. 10 have the Rams so still some hope for tonight.

Feeling pretty good over the next three weeks with TB (@NYG), NE (@NYJ), and LV (v.DEN). If NE loses at the Jets then, well, fine.
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The way Cam looked yesterday, I could actually see them losing to the Jets. They looked AWFUL 2 weeks in a row now. Depending how they look next week against the bills, I might have no faith in picking them all season.

 
Five games with a spread of better than 4, sorted by EV:

https://www.survivorgrid.com

KC vs NYJ -19.5 (EV 1.16 / W% 93.1% / P% 31.7%) - Future Value: Lots

PHI vs DAL -7.5 (EV 0.98 / W% 76.7% / P% 8.8%) - Future Value: W17 vs WAS

TB @ NYG -10.5 (EV 0.95 / W% 81.4% / P% 33.8%) - Future Value: W14 vs MIN, W17 vs ATL

GB vs MIN -6.5 (EV 0.93 / W% 73.4% / P% 10.1%) - Future Value: W10 vs JAX, W12 vs CHI, W13 vs PHI, W15 vs CAR

TEN @ CIN -5.5 (EV 0.86 / W% 68.2% / P% 10.1%) - Future Value: W14 @ JAX, W15 vs DET

 
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I am 90% set on using TB this week as planned. But if CMC makes his comeback tonight against ATL, then I'm really considering leaning CAR. 

 
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