I've put more thought into this because my team cancelled travel for the week so now I don't have to go to the airport and I'm bored.
Dallas over Boston
Phoenix over Boston
Dallas over Milwaukee
Phoenix over Milwaukee
Phoenix over Miami
Dallas over Miami
Golden State over Miami
Boston over Golden State
Golden State over Milwaukee
My two italicized ones are tough. I think for both Dallas and Phoenix, they are a clear favorite without Middleton. But if Middleton is back, I struggle more to take Phoenix. And at the end of the day...Giannis gonna average like 50 vs Dallas in a series. ZERO bigs with real ability to stop him. All comes down to if they can foul him out or not, and if they can pull him away from helping at the rim and light up Allen. Middleton changes everything - he can guard Booker and Luka passably, and he can score on the other end. He's a fantastic spot up threat for Giannis who isn't a liability, and he's a guy who can get off tough shots better than Holiday. Middleton back...I reserve the right to change my pick when the Finals roll around.
The thing that makes Dallas so tough for all these teams is Luka. Every one of them thinks they have a defender who can make life super hard for the best wing. Like Jrue Holiday. But Luka just whoops his ### in the post repeatedly, and nobody else on Milwaukee can stay with him. He's annihilating DPOY candidate Bridges right now. He's whopped Kawhi/PG last year and the year before. He's like LeBron level difficult of a matchup size and skills-wise...except he's a WAY better shooter.
The only people left in the playoffs with a chance of really denting his production, IMO, are Draymond Green (wouldn't worry because the rest of GS is kind of trash on defense, although Wiggins is ok), Jimmy Butler (who doesn't actually work as hard or as well as reputation would say), and Middleton (who can still get bullied low but is super long which alleviates that) and Giannis (who I don't think you want on Luka but I could be wrong).