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I think it goes 7. Not sure who wins.
He averages roughly 15/15 with over 2 bpg and is a perennial DPOY candidate. He is a top 15 player in the league and has a very unique skillset. However, his inability to close games in the playoffs makes his salary a bit tougher to swallow, but for the right team he could be a major difference maker. The guy's WS & WS/48 numbers prove he simply effects winning games throughout the season by protecting the paint, rebounding and being hyper-efficient on offense. There are a lot of teams willing to take him on as he could take a lot of regular season pressure off veterans and could be huge for a 2nd tier team to make the Finals.
the fact that he's surrounded by guys who think defense is a wildly laughable conspiracy theory and takes all the blame for not being able to guard 5 positions simultaneously tells me he should find a new team.. whatever the salary.
He is the most efficient scorer in the league for roughly the past 5 years as he led the league in FG% and eFG% 3 times.
Gobert has ranked 17, 12, 13, and 13 in VORP the past 4 seasons. He's just fine the way he's been . . . he doesn't need to improve to be a Top 15ish player. Sure, he has plenty of room for improvement offensively, but his defense and limited offense still has him in the Top 15.
IIRC, VORP is heavily swayed when guys miss games. Could be a major flaw in whatever algorithm the analytics used to project the series.
There are stats for everything these days.
no for what he's done, yes for what he'll do. for a few years, we wanted centers who could stretch the floor and that hurt Rudy's value. for the next few years, we'll want centers who can stand guarding the PGs they get rubbed off on. i can imagine lazily-coached teams wanting him for a stopgap for all their players who wont do their coverages - believe it or not, i wanted him for the Celts when they had that $27mil trade exception - but those teams cant be playing for championships anymore. AT-AT centers are as dead as waterbug PGs cuz, if you gotta hide a starter on offense or defense now, youre already campaigning to lose.
The biggest problem the analytics will have is the difference between playoff NBA play and regular season NBA play.
Thought it was basically BPM times player minutes over team minutes times player games over team games
Get used to it. It's two days off between games except for games 3 and 4 (only one day).
He's an all-NBA player. Top 3 defender every year and top 2 in offensive efficiency. Absolutely belongs as a top 15'er. Not top 10, but I'd put him right there based on his impact game to game.
I think he'll have a solid market. Suns/Warriors/Bulls are just off the top. I think either will be able to offer in return something Utah would want.
I think this is why I DO lean so heavily on advanced stats. Our eyes, emotions and preconceived ideas can betray us and hide the truth from us. We want to say the guy sucks because he can't hit a 10 ft jumpshot, lumbers around like Lurch and only shoots 64% from the FT line, but the numbers don't lie and he flat out impacts winning at a very high rate.
We can agree to disagree. To me advanced stats are a metric that can be used along with the “eye test” and basketball IQ. Advanced stats are misleading and can be manipulated. If you leaned heavily on advanced stats—you’d believe that Kevin Love was one of the best players in history (as he had one of the best PER’s recorded), that Russell Westbrook should be on the top 25-30 player of all time list, and that guys like Andre Drummond are elite.
All stats can be used out of context or to make an argument that probably shouldn’t be made. But there are plenty of players with limitations. For example, Giannis isn’t a great shooter, isn’t great at shooting or defending the three, and is a sketchy free throw shooter. But he gets to the rim and defends in the paint. He’s not particularly well rounded, yet plenty of people say he is the best in the game at the moment. Based on the holes or limitations in his game, would anyone consider Giannis overpaid or at risk of not being worth a future contract?
You cannot compare Giannis’s shortcomings to that of Gobert. The difference is that Giannis has improved his game to where even the areas that are his shortcomings are adequate. Giannis does hit 3’s well enough to where a defender has to respect him. Giannis does have handles and you can give him the ball and clear out. Giannis can post up and take advantage of when teams want to go small on him. Giannis gets to the free throw line enough to where even if he doesn’t hit a great percentage of them—he still hits enough to make a difference. He also is such a force on the offensive end that he puts the opposing team at.risk of being in foul trouble—which in turn creates free throws for his teammates (as opposing teams are over the limit). You cannot give the ball to Gobert and tell him to go to work. His shortcomings are well below “adequate”. More importantly—Giannis has proven that he’s elite merely from the fact that he is capable of being the best player on a championship caliber team. IMO—if Gobert is your best player—you literally have zero shot of winning a championship. I’m not hating on Gobert—I think he’s great—but he’s not anywhere near top 15. As I said earlier—he’s closer to top 25-35 for me—which means he’ll command a ton of money from somebody. I’m not arguing that at all. Are you telling me that if you were to build a championship team—that Gobert would be in your top 15 guys to build around as the foundational best player?
I was not comparing Gobert to Giannis. My point was that stats and skills vary from player to player. Gobert has a small fraction to offer compared to Giannis offensively. But his rebounding and work directly under the rim combined with his defensive numbers have statistically made him a Top 15 player based on statistical value. He likely isn't a Top 15 player, but the statistical value reflects that he is. Giannis has more value even though his broader skill set is still someone limited. Last year, the league average was 35.4% for 3P. GA has a career average of 28.8%. Opponents will let him shoot threes all day, every day. They are way better off letting him chuck up shots from 25 feet away, as they don't have to worry about what he does in the paint on those possessions.
For next season I'd take him over CP3, AD, Dame, Kyrie, DeMar, PG13 & Mitchell as well as Beal (50/50 on him vs. KAT as they are polar opposites). None of those guys has done any better in the postseason without playing alongside LeBron and have either age or injury issues or a severe hole in their game (or in Kyrie's case, an idiotic team cancer).
Somehow all of those layups and dunks that his teammates set him up for is all accredited to him. Deandre Jordan would routinely be up there amongst the league leaders in rebounding and field goal percentage and anybody with any basketball IQ knew that he was nowhere close to a top 20 player in the league in his prime. When CP3 and Deandre went separate ways—was anybody surprised to see Deandre fall off of a cliff and CP3 still remained very relevant as being one of the better players in the league?
Yep. Right with you. Rudy’s offensive RAPTOR score on 538.com is league average. He’s ranked in the low 100s. Nothing special.
