Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Good perspective. Not sure why anyone thought this would be a Warriors cakewalk. Anyone who knows basketball OR analytics shouldn’t be surprised by last night.
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2021-22 NBA Thread: Bill Simmons furiously recording 2.5 hour long pod about how Boston is still better than Golden State (2 Viewers)
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Charlie Harper
Footballguy
It's funny that everyone thinks the series is over. Dubs need to win Sunday, but the Warriors have won a road game in 20+ series or whatever. It's an NBA record.
Jayrod
Footballguy
What surprised me was all of the experts saying Warriors in 6 or 7 and some indicating they wanted to say Warriors in 5, but to be safe said 6. Like almost nobody picked the Celtics.
It obviously isn't over, but game 1 should be an eye opener to a lot of people.
The Celtics struggled in the 1st quarter and it looked like Tatum had some game 1 jitters for sure. They were a bit wide eyed and stunned. However, they also shot the ball well to keep it close in the 1st and then played well in the 2nd and they took that 2 pt lead. Then came the 3rd, but I think it took a lot of energy out of Golden State and in the 4th, the Celtics played with a lot more energy all over the place. Another huge key was only 12 TO's.
Both benches played really well. Porter looked like their 2nd best player at times and Poole contributed some points. Besides White, Pritchard put up 8 pts (3 of 4), 6 rbds & 2 asts in 16 minutes. Grant Williams was OK (0/3/3) and Theis hit a corner 3 and had a block in 6 minutes.
The Warriors have to get more out of Looney & Green. They combined for 8 points on 3/16 shooting and Draymond fouled out. If that kind of production continues, Curry/Klay/Poole can't shoot their way to 4 wins.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Odd/surprising stats:
- All 5 BOS starters had at least 5 rebounds
- All 5 BOS starters had at least 1 steal
- GSW starting frontcourt was 3/16. BOS starting frontcourt was 13/16.
- BOS team shooting percentages (50/51/81) were better than Curry's (48/50/75)
- GSW had 11 Off-rbds in qtrs 1-3, but only 1 in the 4th (and it was in garbage time)
- Both teams won 2 quarters, but BOS won both halves
- Curry had the best game score at 25.7, Draymond had the worst at -0.2
- White had the best +/- at +25, Poole had the worst at -19
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Teams hardly ever win a quarter by 20+ points. Boston has gone on runs for better parts of a quarter throughout the playoffs. In 19 games so far, they have had 14 quarters where they were +10 points or more (including 5 of +15 or more). Once they flipped the switch near the halfway point of the season, they had nights where they were a buzzsaw. They had halftime leads of +26 vs. PHO, +27 vs. PHI, +25 vs. DEN, +23 vs. UTA, +23 vs. MIN when those teams had their mainstays playing. Basically, if Boston doesn't turn the ball over and they make their shots, they are nearly unbeatable.
That being said, the trio of Horford / White / Smart combined might not even get 15 more three pointers in the remainder of the series. But Tatum is unlikely to go 3-17 either. In the playoffs, in games when he scores under 20 points, he's averaged 33 points the next game.
If you told me Tatum would go 3-17 and Steph would set the record for most made three pointers in a quarter, I would have guessed GS would have won by 25 points.
I saw an eye-opening stat this morning. Brown leads all players in most fourth quarter points scored and has made 67% of his 4th quarter shots.
Last night's net ratings per 100 possessions for guys that played 10+ minutes is pretty wild:
Pritchard +87
Smart +55
Horford +38
RWilliams +20
White +15
Brown -13
Tatum -20
GWilliams -27
Porter +42
Iguodala +13
Steph +3
Wiggins +2
Looney 0
Klay -12
Poole -53
Dray -66
If the Warriors don't get more out of Poole and Green, it could be a short series. GS might be best suited to sub someone else in for Poole.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I was trying to find a way to highlight Pritchard's production per minute, but this is probably the best look. He was fantastic in 16 minutes on both ends of the floor.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
humility is the only thing that can get my guys now, that's why the last two series(es?) went seven. when they diggin, the Celtics are almost as special as the team theyre playing was 8 years ago - a defining combination of the shots-stops-steals philosphy that purists have been hoping to see since the Dubs widened the zone a decade ago.
but the instant they start thinking they the ####, they lose what they got. Smaaaat & the Jays' pretty strokes go off-center, they stop going over screens and forget too quickly that, without focus & footwork, theyre the Washington Wizards. and the professionalism which forged the Warriors' two leads last nite will take whatever rope theyre given and tug it BUT hard
best thing about last nite, besides not missing all those times, was the li'l ##### they made of Poole. they stuffed his VinnieJohnsonAss act in a bag and threw it in the bay. Kerr best fish him out and dry him off or his team is in trubbs
but the instant they start thinking they the ####, they lose what they got. Smaaaat & the Jays' pretty strokes go off-center, they stop going over screens and forget too quickly that, without focus & footwork, theyre the Washington Wizards. and the professionalism which forged the Warriors' two leads last nite will take whatever rope theyre given and tug it BUT hard
best thing about last nite, besides not missing all those times, was the li'l ##### they made of Poole. they stuffed his VinnieJohnsonAss act in a bag and threw it in the bay. Kerr best fish him out and dry him off or his team is in trubbs
mr. furley
Footballguy
that announcing team last night has to be the worst of the "prime" teams
i can't take anymore awkward attempts to throw out dated catchphrases.. i'm pretty sure the guy dropped "whazzzzzzzzzzzzup" and "psych!" lines last night.
or Mark Jackson's monotone voice and stilted delivery. guy sounds like it's his first on-air appearance.
i can't take anymore awkward attempts to throw out dated catchphrases.. i'm pretty sure the guy dropped "whazzzzzzzzzzzzup" and "psych!" lines last night.
or Mark Jackson's monotone voice and stilted delivery. guy sounds like it's his first on-air appearance.
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wilked
Footballguy
I think the one I saw was Curry's Finals records with and without Durant.
With Durant was like 9-1
Without, 8-12
Prob not a completely fair stat, but also shows that a lot of the 'legacy' of this GS run is the Curry/Durant combo.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I went and looked up their 1-8 record in the Finals without KD in their last 9 games . . . with a -8.9 point scoring differential.
L BOS (108-120)
L TOR (110-114)
L TOR (92-105)
L TOR (109-123)
W TOR (109-104)
L TOR (109-118)
L CLE (89-93)
L CLE (101-115)
L CLE (97-112)
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The other win against the Raptors was when Durant came back played like 15 minutes and then tore his achilles.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Ditto. I was out with 2 mins left in 3rd. I think BOS is better cause of the D. But I was shocked to wake up and see they won this one.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Ugh.... Based on shot quality BOS should've won 104-92.
It wasn't just the hot steak.
It wasn't just the hot steak.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Listening to JJ Redick's Podcast. Horford has defended the most shots in the playoffs . . . and he has the allowed the lowest FG percentage. And he's #2 in 3P% on offense this post season.
Also, Curry only 8 points on 29 possessions when guarded by Smart. Not sure who was on Steph in the first quarter.
Also, Curry only 8 points on 29 possessions when guarded by Smart. Not sure who was on Steph in the first quarter.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I don't think they dominated the game for the first 41, 42 minutes. The Celtics led by 2 at halftime, with 30 minutes completed.
A more accurate statement is that Golden State dominated the third quarter, 38-24. But if it is accurate to say 38-24 = "dominated" then what is the word for 40-16?
I listened to NBA radio some today, and I heard Brian Scalabrini (Celtics guy) say he was surprised that Golden State "let go of the rope" so early. He referenced GS "cockiness," and that they seemed to think the Celtics would "lay down" for them. It might be a bit of hyperbole, but it's not totally off base IMO.
From what I have heard on NBA radio throughout these playoffs, Scalabrini has been pretty accurate in his assessment of the Celtics and their chances in each playoff series so far. He seems to think this series is a lock for the Celtics, and I happen to agree.
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mr. furley
Footballguy
https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/shots-dash/?LastNGames=1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Playoffs
Celtics had an extremely high percentage of wide open shots. defined as a defender 4+ feet away or more from the shooter.
in fact, 38-41 three pointers were taken with a defender at least 4 feet away.
yiiiiiiiiikes
Celtics had an extremely high percentage of wide open shots. defined as a defender 4+ feet away or more from the shooter.
in fact, 38-41 three pointers were taken with a defender at least 4 feet away.
yiiiiiiiiikes
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Between last season and this season in the post season, Tatum in games after shooting under 25%:
W BRK (+6) - 50 points (16 of 30 shooting)
W MIL (+8) - 30 points (11 of 24 shooting)
W MIA (+20) - 31 points (8 of 16 shooting)
I've also been hearing all day today how Boston will never make 20 pointers in a game again. I looked it up, and that was the 12th time they did that this year. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion they won't have another game with 20 makes.
The takeaway for Warriors fans is Boston hasn't shot as well in game X+1, only going 3-8 in those games. They went from 21.4 made threes (46.7%) to 12.9 made threes (35.5%).
One of those trends (winning in a JT big game vs. losses in fewer threes) will have to give.
W BRK (+6) - 50 points (16 of 30 shooting)
W MIL (+8) - 30 points (11 of 24 shooting)
W MIA (+20) - 31 points (8 of 16 shooting)
I've also been hearing all day today how Boston will never make 20 pointers in a game again. I looked it up, and that was the 12th time they did that this year. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion they won't have another game with 20 makes.
The takeaway for Warriors fans is Boston hasn't shot as well in game X+1, only going 3-8 in those games. They went from 21.4 made threes (46.7%) to 12.9 made threes (35.5%).
One of those trends (winning in a JT big game vs. losses in fewer threes) will have to give.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
This actually makes sense to me. Boston seemed to have a lot of open shots. When Curry had 21 in the first quarter and GS barely led I told my son “####, we’re in trouble here.”
All along my view was Boston in 6. Still feel that way.
offdee
Footballguy
Isn't Van Gundy part of that usual crew though? He's the one that adds some life to the call. I'm guessing he was sick based on the previous game he called where he sounded like he was going to die on air.
Google confirmed (2 usual guys missing....definitely was the B team for Game 1):
Play-by-play announcer Mike Breen and analyst Jeff Van Gundy will both miss Thursday night's game as they recover from COVID-19, per Andrew Marchand of the New York Post. Mark Jones will handle play-by-play duties in place of Breen and Mark Jackson will be the lone analyst.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The funny thing, too, is how many games have we seen over the years where the Warriors were outplayed for much of them, but went ballistic with a stretch of hitting 3s and stole the game?
Really though, the less people listen to Green, the better, although he has his own podcast now, which is not surprising since his playing is slipping and he needs a reason to stay relevant.
the moops
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Speaking of podcasts, Jason Timof had some eye opening numbers from Game 1. Rob Williams actually hurt Boston on both sides of the floor.
For starters, the C’s started out in drop coverage as their base defense against pick and rolls. The problem initially was the big (Timelord) would drop to the foul line, and Curry was getting open threes. As the game progressed, they tried switching with mixed results.
Eventually, Boston adjusted and pushed the pick and roll plays out beyond the three point line. Throughout the playoffs Boston has had a defensive rating of 98.5 with Rob on the court. In Game 1, that shot up to 116. When they started picking up GS beyond the three-point line with Al as the defending big on pick and rolls, their defensive rating dropped to 40.
A similar thing happened on offense. Throughout the playoffs, Boston has had a 107.5 offensive rating with Timelord on the court. In Game 1, when they opted to go with 5 outside shooters instead, their offensive rating jumped up to 140.
Over the course of the post season, Boston’s offensive rating has been 6.4 points better per 100 possessions without RWilliams on the court. With Rob not at 100%, they actually have been more productive when he hasn’t been on the court.
Timof went on to say that GS (like MIL) opts to defend the lane and by design will let teams kick out on penetration for open threes. The problem is, Boston can play five guys that can make threes. Timof said the countermove is to play the perimeter defenders further out, but he doesn’t recommend it as guys like the Jays and Smart will slash into the lane. That would get Boston some easy layups and could also still result in good looks outside with good ball movement. Bottom line, GS probably won’t have a great adjustment and will hope Boston shoots poorly on their outside shots.
For starters, the C’s started out in drop coverage as their base defense against pick and rolls. The problem initially was the big (Timelord) would drop to the foul line, and Curry was getting open threes. As the game progressed, they tried switching with mixed results.
Eventually, Boston adjusted and pushed the pick and roll plays out beyond the three point line. Throughout the playoffs Boston has had a defensive rating of 98.5 with Rob on the court. In Game 1, that shot up to 116. When they started picking up GS beyond the three-point line with Al as the defending big on pick and rolls, their defensive rating dropped to 40.
A similar thing happened on offense. Throughout the playoffs, Boston has had a 107.5 offensive rating with Timelord on the court. In Game 1, when they opted to go with 5 outside shooters instead, their offensive rating jumped up to 140.
Over the course of the post season, Boston’s offensive rating has been 6.4 points better per 100 possessions without RWilliams on the court. With Rob not at 100%, they actually have been more productive when he hasn’t been on the court.
Timof went on to say that GS (like MIL) opts to defend the lane and by design will let teams kick out on penetration for open threes. The problem is, Boston can play five guys that can make threes. Timof said the countermove is to play the perimeter defenders further out, but he doesn’t recommend it as guys like the Jays and Smart will slash into the lane. That would get Boston some easy layups and could also still result in good looks outside with good ball movement. Bottom line, GS probably won’t have a great adjustment and will hope Boston shoots poorly on their outside shots.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
The adjustment is hope GP2 can comeback and play to have someone who can guard Brown.
mr. furley
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I think Boston rides their hot finish and Tatum scores way better and Boston starts the game strong. JT with 20-25 points in the first half. Boston silences the crowd and goes up 15 at the break.
Tatum ends up with 35+, Brown scores better, Grant Williams is the one making threes, the pressure gets to the Warriors and they don’t shoot well. GS rallies a little late but Boston holds on to win by 8 or 10.
Boston has been +3.5 made threes per game net in the playoffs. GS has been -0.7. Celtics +4.6% on threes in the postseason. All the talk has been that BOS won’t make 20 threes on a game again. Warriors might not make 19 like in Game 1 either. Boston can play loose. All the pressure is on GS. Like always, if BOS doesn’t have a ton of turnovers, they should be in position to win.
Tatum ends up with 35+, Brown scores better, Grant Williams is the one making threes, the pressure gets to the Warriors and they don’t shoot well. GS rallies a little late but Boston holds on to win by 8 or 10.
Boston has been +3.5 made threes per game net in the playoffs. GS has been -0.7. Celtics +4.6% on threes in the postseason. All the talk has been that BOS won’t make 20 threes on a game again. Warriors might not make 19 like in Game 1 either. Boston can play loose. All the pressure is on GS. Like always, if BOS doesn’t have a ton of turnovers, they should be in position to win.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
It feels like game 1 was a week ago. The NBA is awesome, but boy do they suck at scheduling.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Rewatched game 1.
Warriors were in control until they weren't. Feel a bit better after all the post analysis made me even more unsure.
In the 4th to take the lead, Brown, White, and Smart hit a bunch of well defended shots. The Dubs definitely need to pay more attention to Horford because he was wide open on a lot of his shots.
Offense wise, things did get stagnant but the Warriors did stop moving around off the ball.
Looney's minutes need to match Timelord or If Draymond is playing like doo doo give them to Loon.
Poole needs to play better and match minutes vs Pritchard. Poole lost that matchup last game, but he's more than capable of winning today.
GP2 will be key just as long as he can make an impact on defense. He can take Poole's minutes if Poole is ineffective and Klay's as well.
Kerr needs to avoid the Dray, Iggy, and Looney together in the 2nd unit. It gave Poole no room to operate.
I'm not sure if Kerr trusts Moody or Kuminga, but he may need to see what they can do to make better use of the Poole, Iggy, and the 2nd big man minutes.
I wonder if they switch
Wiggins on Brown.
Klay on Tatum.
This way Wiggins can keep up with Brown 1v1. Tatum is slower than Brown, so Klay can play Tatum a bit better and the team doesn't have to help on Tatum drives AND Brown drives.
It'll be a tough game. Anyone can win, but this is a must win game for the Dubs.
Warriors were in control until they weren't. Feel a bit better after all the post analysis made me even more unsure.
In the 4th to take the lead, Brown, White, and Smart hit a bunch of well defended shots. The Dubs definitely need to pay more attention to Horford because he was wide open on a lot of his shots.
Offense wise, things did get stagnant but the Warriors did stop moving around off the ball.
Looney's minutes need to match Timelord or If Draymond is playing like doo doo give them to Loon.
Poole needs to play better and match minutes vs Pritchard. Poole lost that matchup last game, but he's more than capable of winning today.
GP2 will be key just as long as he can make an impact on defense. He can take Poole's minutes if Poole is ineffective and Klay's as well.
Kerr needs to avoid the Dray, Iggy, and Looney together in the 2nd unit. It gave Poole no room to operate.
I'm not sure if Kerr trusts Moody or Kuminga, but he may need to see what they can do to make better use of the Poole, Iggy, and the 2nd big man minutes.
I wonder if they switch
Wiggins on Brown.
Klay on Tatum.
This way Wiggins can keep up with Brown 1v1. Tatum is slower than Brown, so Klay can play Tatum a bit better and the team doesn't have to help on Tatum drives AND Brown drives.
It'll be a tough game. Anyone can win, but this is a must win game for the Dubs.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
So Quinn Snyder is stepping down and now Mitchell is unsure about his future with the team. As a Piston fan I would love them to make a move fore Mitchell.
If I am Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Memphis, Minnesota, Charlotte, Philly, Toronto etc. I am looking into this. He is a difference maker.
If I am Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Memphis, Minnesota, Charlotte, Philly, Toronto etc. I am looking into this. He is a difference maker.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Not surprising he stepped down. I thought he'd be the next Lakers coach. Very possible he asked out to take over there and was denied. Bigger market team he likely gets canned with the talent/payroll on that team and their performance. It's not a young team and wasn't going further.
Agree Mitchell is a difference maker offensively. He's a turnstile defensively though. Suns won't be a player. Bridges is a better fit. Booker's their shooting guard. I think Ayton's good as gone from Phoenix and they will likely do a sign-and-trade. If there's anything there on the end involving Utah, it'll be Gobert.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Hard to imagine the Celtics winning back to back road games here even though they're 8-2 on the road. They won't get any help from the refs if they do. If they play to script it will either be a warriors blowout or a celtics romp that ends with a big comeback.
That said, the warriors shut Tatum down and lost by double digits at home. Do you go away from what worked against Tatum so you can defend Jaylen and Al? Or do you stick with what worked and just expect that the Celtics shooting cools off? If I'm coaching, I stick with the good process and wait for the results to come.
That said, the warriors shut Tatum down and lost by double digits at home. Do you go away from what worked against Tatum so you can defend Jaylen and Al? Or do you stick with what worked and just expect that the Celtics shooting cools off? If I'm coaching, I stick with the good process and wait for the results to come.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Brown is feeling it wow
bostonfred
Footballguy
Jaylen 13
Warriors 13
Warriors 13
The General
Footballguy
Draymond up yo his typical bull####.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is the energy and urgency the Warriors should have came out with. Celtic fans should feel good about this because in the last 2 series these were games they threw away.
The General
Footballguy
He didn't touch him 
bostonfred
Footballguy
Tatum 2-8
Jayrod
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Is that dude on the Warriors bench wearing a leather mask?
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