Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
CanadianNFLJunkie
Footballguy
I disagree. If Bills get the 10th pick in 2018 draft, (which sounds about right for them) that's a value of 1300 pts and if KC finishes 20th, (which I'm trying to take a neutral guess on what their record could be), that's a value of 850. Those 2 picks traded straight up should be 50 pts short of having the 3rd overall pick. They have more ammo with their two 2nd's and two 3rd's so they should be fine. Not everyone is as stupid as the Bears were this past draft
flysack
Footballguy
Unless an unmissable QB makes himself known in 2017 (a Manning or Luck or Cam Newton), I doubt the Bills trade up. This regime wants to forge the team from their vision, and I get the feeling for McDermott that means defense first -- unless that unmissable QB is there. He has the D-line, with solid depth too. I'd be shocked if he didn't take the best MLB in college next year. Ragland may not even make the team. He was drafted as a downhill thumper and McDermott needs a speedy field general like a Keuchly or Urlacher to head his defense. LBs, DBs, OL will be the focus of those picks. Maybe WR.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
So a second and third make a big difference? Wentz wasn't that highly thought of. This qb class is being hyped up so expect an rg3 haul.
i don't think trading for a qb in a year has anything to do with these trades. They gave up on Watkins plain and simple.
Last edited by a moderator:
flysack
Footballguy
Yea, but the trade was an attempt to get some future capital for a guy that's like a baseball player 1-year rental. The picks are important, imo. But I agree, not necessarily for a QB.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
And of course, in Jordan Matthews's first practice today, he got some sort of chest injury. 
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Every injury gets them even closer to the #1 pick. It's all going according to plan.And of course, in Jordan Matthews's first practice today, he got some sort of chest injury.
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
I don't think there's much of a chance we finish lower than the Jets. Their team might be the worse ever put together.
Not sure I agree with this. I think they are definitely positioning themselves to move up into the top 3. I'm not sure how QB's will be evaluated following this college season but I've read positive things about the 3 QB's (Darnold, Rosen, Allen). Teams have to have a QB and opportunities (plethora of draft picks, low finish for the season, apparently strong selection of top prospects) don't come around all that often.
Even Cam wasn't considered "unmissable" if I recall, there were lots of questions about him.
CanadianNFLJunkie
Footballguy
Also Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph and Jarrett Stidham might all go in the first round. But it's supposed to be a deep draft so some of these names might last til the 2nd round
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Annnnnddddd, of course Jordan Matthews has a chip fracture in his sternum.
Sammy will probably stay healthy and play all 16 games.
Because, Bills.
Sammy will probably stay healthy and play all 16 games.
Because, Bills.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Finally someone who gets it. McDermott did say that Matthews and Jones can play outside if need be. Not a huge issue to move those three around. Matthews will likely be out 1-3 weeks depending on pain tolerance. The Bills were 6-10 or 7-9 prior to Friday and the same after. The picks are needed to help them move up from pick 9.
They'll have a top 12 pick and possibly another top 20. (two seconds, two thirds) and 2018 picks if they need to move up a few spots if they like one of the potential 5 QB's in this 2018 class.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
And EJ Gaines headed to the injury tent for a bit today
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
He came back but still comical.And EJ Gaines headed to the injury tent for a bit today
Who knows maybe they'll use KC's pick and a 2nd to move up into the teens and get a QB.
Plenty of ways this could play out. They could even keep Tyrod year by year a-la the Cousins method but cheaper and still get a QB late one or round two.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Most of us who have followed this team for years have a good idea how this is going to play out.
flysack
Footballguy
Us Bills fans could learn a thing or two from those Jags fans. This twitter account about Bortles is
https://twitter.com/BortlesFacts
Some choice tweets -
https://twitter.com/BortlesFacts
Some choice tweets -
flysack
Footballguy
Even if Ragland wasn't hobbled, he's been running with the 3rd team defense. The writing is on the wall for him. He was drafted to be a 3-4 MLB thumper and McDermott's D calls for quick, agile MLBs who can cover.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I've been out of town for a few days, but I really don't mind the moves, in general. The new administration really can't ask for a cleaner slate. They still have weapons on offense and I don't think they'll be the worst team in the league, but I think most would agree that they were a team on the downslide and were (and are) an extreme longshot to make the playoffs.
I don't have a particular problem with Tyrod, and I think he's a solid NFL QB and the best QB this team has had probably for the entirety of the drought, save for maybe early Bledsoe. If he impresses this year, keep him. If not, and the team bottoms out, you've got a pretty high draft pick plus ammo to potentially move up a few more spots to get the guy you want.
Worst case scenario is that Tyrod plays pretty well and the team ends up something like 7-9. Too low on the draft board to get up into the top few picks without throwing away a bunch of ammo, yet Tyrod not good enough to earn a longer-term big $ deal. I want the Bills to win every game they play, but I'd rather them finish 4-12 than 7-9 this year. If they're not gonna make the playoffs, and there's a really really really really good chance that's the case, they should rebuild with this anticipated QB class coming out in 2018. And it looks like that's what they're doing. The administration can get their guy and build. Just hope it's the right guy.
I am really happy, though, that I got rid of my season tickets this year.
I don't have a particular problem with Tyrod, and I think he's a solid NFL QB and the best QB this team has had probably for the entirety of the drought, save for maybe early Bledsoe. If he impresses this year, keep him. If not, and the team bottoms out, you've got a pretty high draft pick plus ammo to potentially move up a few more spots to get the guy you want.
Worst case scenario is that Tyrod plays pretty well and the team ends up something like 7-9. Too low on the draft board to get up into the top few picks without throwing away a bunch of ammo, yet Tyrod not good enough to earn a longer-term big $ deal. I want the Bills to win every game they play, but I'd rather them finish 4-12 than 7-9 this year. If they're not gonna make the playoffs, and there's a really really really really good chance that's the case, they should rebuild with this anticipated QB class coming out in 2018. And it looks like that's what they're doing. The administration can get their guy and build. Just hope it's the right guy.
I am really happy, though, that I got rid of my season tickets this year.
Last edited by a moderator:
ATC1
Footballguy
So you think Ramon Humber will stick as a starter? As a Saints fan, I always like the consistency Humber brought. I didn't like seeing him leave, especially with a LB group that appears to be in shambles. I am glad to see him get a shot.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I just think it's too uncertain to know how much Humber sticks on the field. They'll move Hyde around in the box on short yardage nickel situations pair him with Brown. Sometimes with three safety looks (even though they lack depth) The third preseason game will gives us more of an idea. I agree though Humber has earned his role this far. While Ragland has been with the three's he's moved back with the two's and did pretty well in limited action last week. I'll be watching him Thursday and see how Ragland plays with some 2nd string time.
OC Zed
Footballguy
I never understood the notion that the Bills couldn't compete going into this season. This was a 7-9 team under the train wreck that was Rex Ryan's staff a year ago... they were in the playoff hunt as late as Week 15. They were supposed to come back with both of their '16 1st and 2nd round rookies AND #1 WR healthy. There was a legitimate chance there... at least on paper.
Now you take away our #1 WR (and the only receiver on the receiver with the ability to stretch the field) and you load up our roster with a bunch of mediocre slot receivers. Oh, and you have a QB who really excels at throwing deep, but can't throw over the middle (to said slew of slot receivers) to save his life. If this wasn't an intentional tank job on this season, then it was grossly negligent to kill this season and any chance of your QB succeeding. Just come out and say to everyone that you are playing for 2018 and a new rookie QB to go along with it.
Could the Bills win this year still? Yes, stranger things have certainly happened in the NFL in the last 17 years. But that doesn't mean the front office and coaching staff put this team in the best position to win this year, and I'll still contend in years going forward... they still could have had a great shot at resigning Watkins and solidifying their WR corps for years to come if they hadn't done everything in the power (and successfully) to get him out of town. But instead, we have a very mediocre Jordan Mathews (in a contract year no less), a mediocre CB no one has ever heard of and extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. Woohoo.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
I saw a discussion on another site about whether you'd prefer the Bills to be 8-8 this year or 2-12.
If they're 8-8 that means that McDermott took this mediocre team against one of the toughest schedules and pulled off 8 wins. That would make me feel good about the direction under McDermott
If they're 2-12 they get a great pick in the draft and can do a true rebuild. And hopefully get one of these 'can't miss' QBs - something they haven't had in years.
I guess that when expectations are this low it's very hard to be disappointed.
If they're 8-8 that means that McDermott took this mediocre team against one of the toughest schedules and pulled off 8 wins. That would make me feel good about the direction under McDermott
If they're 2-12 they get a great pick in the draft and can do a true rebuild. And hopefully get one of these 'can't miss' QBs - something they haven't had in years.
I guess that when expectations are this low it's very hard to be disappointed.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Luckily if they go 8-8 and we feel good at the direction they went against that schedule we have ammo to move up if they fall in love with a first rd QB.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Yeah - but then there's a question of whether you want a QB or if you're comfortable with Tyrod. And Peterman seems to be showing well so far. I guess it would be a good problem to have.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
For sure. Imagine if they got to use the first 4 picks on best player available.
#AndThenIWokeUP
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I didn't mean to imply that they couldn't compete, but they were realistically, at best, playing for a wildcard spot. They're thin at LB and in the secondary and I just don't see McDermott having this be a top 5-10 defense. The offense is fine, decent OL, great RB, average-to-above-average QB play, and can win some games, but realistically I think this team was going to fall in the 6-9 wins range with this schedule. Of course they could've made the playoffs, anything can happen, maybe McDermott is a whiz or Tyrod takes a massive step forward or Tre White is the next Revis or something, who knows. Maybe the AFC is weak and 9-7 gets you in.OC Zed said:
I'd rather they be entirely out of it and in the market for a top QB than "in the hunt" only to fade down the stretch and miss the playoffs yet again. I don't think these moves are "tank" moves, and I don't think the Bills will be, like 3-13, there's too much talent on this team for that.
I don't think this season is over before it starts, but I'm less optimistic about it than the previous 2 seasons. I felt that those were fringe playoff teams based on talent alone. But this defense - even before trading Darby - looks to be on the downturn and the offense has shown that it can't fully "carry the team", so to speak.
You're leaving out all of the players that they lost (prior to the trades)- Gilmore, Woods, Goodwin, Gillislee, Zach Brown, Corey Graham, etc. There's a reason vegas had their over/under for wins at 6 prior to these transactions. Sure, anything can happen, but it's highly unlikely that they were a playoff team coming into this off season (not unlike much of the last two decades, quite frankly).OC Zed said:
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The other thing you have to look at when you look at this year, is that there are a number of players that likely wouldn't be here next year. Kyle Williams will likely retire. Incognito is getting old. McCoy is no spring chicken. Boldin is obviously a 1 year guy. Glenn can't stay healthy. Eric Wood is getting up there and gets hurt a lot. This was not really a team poised for long term success. Better to admit that and rebuild rather than keep trudging along at 7-9 or 8-8 every year.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
And I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Marcel Dareus gone next year as well. And very possibly Jerry Hughes, especially if Hughes continues with the boneheaded penalties this season.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Reading that the Rams are working with Nike to create a shoe to help protect Sammy's foot definitely helps me to feel a bit better about the trade.
https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/898253538790395904
https://twitter.com/sportingnews/status/898253538790395904
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
What are the odds that it works? Do you really want to keep a guy around that has to have a special shoe designed, that may or may not work, because he is such a high risk of breaking it again?
If it improves his chances of staying healthy by .1%, why not try it? Has nothing to do with keeping him around, it's about why didn't the Bills try something so simple that has no downside?
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Magical shoes! I can't believe we didn't think of that!
Nothing magical about them, just plain common sense. Julio Jones had the same injury and had special cleats made so the Bills didn't even have to think of it themselves, but nah, no sense in trying something as simple as that!
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That's kind of the point.
The floor, both before and after the trades is probably about 5 wins (considering 4 versus NYJ/Mia). Had these trades taken that floor from 5-6 wins to 0-3 wins, I'd be a lot more inclined to buy in.
The ceiling - before and after - is very much affected by this, IMO. A healthy Watkins (who knows), a good rookie CB (White) to go with Darby, a competent coaching staff, some other young players returning from injury, yadda-yadda-yadda... You never know. They could have possibly made it to a playoff game this year. Quite frankly, I would have loved that. At this point I don't care if they can't compete for a championship. I'd be thrilled with a single playoff game.
That said, I think these trades also could really affect the future of this team. You gave away two potential perennial pro-bowlers for what? A couple JaGs, and a little draft stock - that's it.
I really hope McDermott/Beane get things turned around, but if it's not turned around in a couple years, they're going to be another Gregg Williams to me. (That's well below Rex Ryan status in my book.)
bostonfred
Footballguy
Maybe they decided that paying Sammy number one wr money didn't make sense so they let him go a year early and got a second round pick while they could, plus a corner so they could make the second trade and get Matthews.
Maybe they decided that Zay looks like the real deal - which he very much does - and tyrod isn't, so now they're loaded up with two firsts, two seconds and two thirds going into one of the best qb drafts in a long time so they have the ammo to move up.
Maybe they realized that the rams second is probably going to be a top 40 pick which could be huge when trying to trade up.
Maybe they realized that replacing sammys minimal production with Matthews isn't hard because Sammy hasn't actually produced on the field as much as you'd expect.
Maybe they hoped their supposed die hard fans would understand that this was a win now and a win later.
Maybe they decided that Zay looks like the real deal - which he very much does - and tyrod isn't, so now they're loaded up with two firsts, two seconds and two thirds going into one of the best qb drafts in a long time so they have the ammo to move up.
Maybe they realized that the rams second is probably going to be a top 40 pick which could be huge when trying to trade up.
Maybe they realized that replacing sammys minimal production with Matthews isn't hard because Sammy hasn't actually produced on the field as much as you'd expect.
Maybe they hoped their supposed die hard fans would understand that this was a win now and a win later.
flysack
Footballguy
OC Zed
Footballguy
I didn't leave them out. I just don't think their loss was critical given the way those players played last year and/or other players they had or brought in. But removing your #1 WR and #1 CB for cents on the dollar next year will change all of that.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I think the real frustration here (for others, not for me, I'm fine with the moves) is the previous 17 years without the playoffs. It's brutal to watch your team make obvious "rebuilding" moves when they haven't made the playoffs in 17 years. I can't help but think they're the right moves, but they're a signal that yet again, they'll be out of it in December.bostonfred said:
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I'm a fan of the WGR "Preseason Pledge", so I'm not really reading too much into last night's disaster, but I am a little concerned with how Tyrod fits in Rick Dennison's offense. No question that the Bills had a very innovative, open scheme in the past two years under Greg Roman and Anthony Lynn. Spread em out, get Tyrod in space, shotgun, pistol, wildcat, open up running lanes, lots of presnap motion, etc.
I respect that the Bills are certainly going with a vanilla offense at this point, but they were running more of a classic pro-style offense and Tyrod looked totally out of his element last night. Tyrod doesn't get adequate depth on center snaps - the pocket collapses too fast for a guy of his size, and he flounders. This is an offensive line built on a speed running attack and an offense built on two playmakers - McCoy and Tyrod - getting into space and making plays. Yet Dennison seems to want to mold them into a more pro-style, pseudo-west-coast-offense built on quick slants and timing routes with a little bit of run game mixed in.
I watched last night and cringed at the way he's calling the offense right now. I'm a believer in the philosophy that you fit your scheme around the players you have, not vice versa. If they want to retool in the offseason, pick up some pass-blockers and a more traditional pocket-passer QB, fine, but you don't have that right now. It's foolish to try to run that offense with the personnel the Bills have.
I respect that the Bills are certainly going with a vanilla offense at this point, but they were running more of a classic pro-style offense and Tyrod looked totally out of his element last night. Tyrod doesn't get adequate depth on center snaps - the pocket collapses too fast for a guy of his size, and he flounders. This is an offensive line built on a speed running attack and an offense built on two playmakers - McCoy and Tyrod - getting into space and making plays. Yet Dennison seems to want to mold them into a more pro-style, pseudo-west-coast-offense built on quick slants and timing routes with a little bit of run game mixed in.
I watched last night and cringed at the way he's calling the offense right now. I'm a believer in the philosophy that you fit your scheme around the players you have, not vice versa. If they want to retool in the offseason, pick up some pass-blockers and a more traditional pocket-passer QB, fine, but you don't have that right now. It's foolish to try to run that offense with the personnel the Bills have.
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Yeah Tyrod's most effective out of the pocket. I would hope that they went vanilla because it's preseason and don't want to expose him to big hits. No way of knowing until the season starts.
Like them or not, those guys were responsible for a hefty percentage of the teams production last year, both on offense and defense. Again, there's a reason they were projected to only win 6 games this year prior to these recent moves- their chances at the post season are obviously even lower now, but they were very low to begin with.OC Zed said:
I think there's some truth to this, but I'm with you, I'm also fine with the moves. It takes time to build a good team, the goal shouldn't be to do whatever you can to try to sneak into a wild card game just to break the streak. IMO this team hasn't been very close to being a real contender (for a title, not just a wild card), so I'm glad they are focusing more on the next couple of years than just this one. I think they should deal away more guys who aren't going to be part of their core in 2018-2019.
I don't think Tyrod fits many offenses. He can be a moderately effective QB if you completely tailor the offense around his strengths and hide his weaknesses, but he just isn't a good QB for the vast majority of NFL offenses. I think McDermott feels the same way, which is why they drafted Peterman and made these moves to have ammo to get their guy next year. He just isn't a franchise guy IMO.
Similar threads
