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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter GroveDiesel
- Start date
On The Rocks
Footballguy
I agree with the premise, if there were a Andrew Luck, or a Peyton Manning, or a John Elway type guy that you're moving up for. But I all I see is a bunch of question marks. They've made that move before and it hasn't worked out. I'd rather they find someone that has the world's best reputation in QB evaluation and pay that guy multi millions of dollars to find the guy who will be there in the 3rd round.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
I don't even know how to respond to this comment. I mean, yeah, obviously...every team would love to have precognition. That doesn't exist though. There are no guarantees. However, you give yourself a MUCH better chance of landing that franchise QB in the top 5 picks. Even the top 10 picks. After that it's a complete gamble. Wouldn't you rather give yourself the best odds?I don't care about filling holes. That can be done a multitude of ways.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The tension is really between these two facts:
1) QBs drafted in the 1st round are much more successful than any other round
But
2) There are no teams that are better at evaluating talent than any other teams, so having more draft picks is the only way to guarantee long term success for a team
Of course, my contention would be that the single most important player, by far, in football is the QB and I haven't seen a study yet like that second one that tries to tease out positional value when they do the analysis they do. I also think that simply using games started and Pro Bowls as their success measurement is sorely lacking. But overall, I do think that they're likely right on the whole that having more draft picks is preferable. But again, they do a pretty lousy job of distinguishing exactly what that means. Are 5 fourth round picks more valuable to the first and second overall pick. If the Bills could trade 21 and 22 overall for 4 third rounders, would that give them a better statistical chance at success?
1) QBs drafted in the 1st round are much more successful than any other round
But
2) There are no teams that are better at evaluating talent than any other teams, so having more draft picks is the only way to guarantee long term success for a team
Of course, my contention would be that the single most important player, by far, in football is the QB and I haven't seen a study yet like that second one that tries to tease out positional value when they do the analysis they do. I also think that simply using games started and Pro Bowls as their success measurement is sorely lacking. But overall, I do think that they're likely right on the whole that having more draft picks is preferable. But again, they do a pretty lousy job of distinguishing exactly what that means. Are 5 fourth round picks more valuable to the first and second overall pick. If the Bills could trade 21 and 22 overall for 4 third rounders, would that give them a better statistical chance at success?
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
They would have to pay him all 36 next year to make that happen IMO. As a QB Buffalo would be low on the list (lack of weapons and terrible weather)
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
What a great trade by Buffalo. I figured for sure he'd be a cut once the draft and FA played out. To get that pick is great.
Borden
Footballguy
This is the response I was expecting. Which brings me to the next question that, are they going to trade up to get a QB?
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
To add: I wish Tyrod the best in Cleveland. He was absolutely a class act, and a good player. I really appreciate what he did for the team. I hope he can take that team to new levels.
Borden
Footballguy
Landry, Gordon, Barkley. He will have so weapons. But that’s for a different thread.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think they really need to, right? Unless they try to go the Foles route and try to continue to add talent to the rest of the roster. What would you like to see?
Borden
Footballguy
I don’t want to say it because I’m scared of what my fellow Bills fans will say but...Lamar Jackson at 21.
I just don’t what them to trade away all the potential pieces (draft picks) that go along with that big of a jump in the first round.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I like the idea. I am not on board with this QB class so if I was a fan I would hate them to unload their picks to move up as well. Be patient and keep adding talent. Jacksonville shows it is possible to win with a substandard QB. Heck....you guys did make the playoffs last year!
Good luck!
I doubt he would have been on the roster at this time next week, when his $6 mil roster bonus was due. Can't believe they got that pick.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Yeah.. I'm one of them. If they really like one of the top guys, I say go get him. Especially with an extra early 3rd...
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
No. I am 100% positive they as going to draft a QB in the 1st round. The only questions are if they are trading up and if they are, how high?
My bet is that yes, they are trading up, and that they will move into the top 3.
The decision had already been made to move on from Tyrod, but I think getting the draft pick to give them more ammo to move up was as important to them as cutting salary.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
100% agree. He was a great guy, a great leader for the team, conducted himself as a true professional even when the organization treated him like crap, and played better than most gave him credit for.
I think it is the right decision to move on, but I wish him all the best and won't dance with glee that he is gone. Mostly sad that it never worked out like I hoped it would.
Borden
Footballguy
That’s an absolutely fair assessment. Same with the post on the last page. IF they have their guy in one of those picks then yes I agree. To get a future stud QB with draft picks is a gigantic advantage for a team. If they believe that much in a guy then you could argue that it’s worth everything that you could give. I agree with that idea and plan.
However, getting their guy is different than getting a quarterback. Look at Cleveland. Just because you draft a QB doesn’t mean he’s going to work out. No one in this thread needs to be reminded of the last time the Bills made a big trade up in to get a guy in the first round and how that turned out.
I think mobile QBs have the biggest potential for year 1 success which is why I picked Jackson. It seems like he gets a lot of heat for his slender frame but lots of top QBs have some “major” knock against them. How much better are the other QBs in this draft that they would have to give up a bunch for?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I have to admit that this trade is my favorite thing to happen in 2018 so far.
I grew up in Ohio and a bunch of my friends are Browns fans. Being guys, we give each other hard times about each other's teams all the time. My one buddy has ridden me hard about Tyrod for the last 2 years and trashed him over and over and over again. I am giving him so much crap right now he may end up turning his phone off. To make it even more awesome he had just been texting me that Landry would be a top 10 WR because the Browns were going to sign Cousins. 10 minutes later the Browns trade for a QB he has spent 2 years ripping and there is 0% chance Cousins is going to be a Brown.
So along with the other obvious positives, this one is extra sweet personally.
I grew up in Ohio and a bunch of my friends are Browns fans. Being guys, we give each other hard times about each other's teams all the time. My one buddy has ridden me hard about Tyrod for the last 2 years and trashed him over and over and over again. I am giving him so much crap right now he may end up turning his phone off. To make it even more awesome he had just been texting me that Landry would be a top 10 WR because the Browns were going to sign Cousins. 10 minutes later the Browns trade for a QB he has spent 2 years ripping and there is 0% chance Cousins is going to be a Brown.
So along with the other obvious positives, this one is extra sweet personally.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
You can look at the Bills for that, too.
Part of my stance is that I give this head office the benefit of the doubt. If they go up and grab someone I'm a lot more confident in their decision than the leaders of the past 15 years.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I would be fine with taking Jackson at 21. However, I don't think Jackson will actually make it to 21.
But I would also be fine with trading up for Josh Rosen. I think he is the real deal. I think Mayfield may actually be the real deal too. He's crazy accurate, does a good job reading defenses, and the dude wants to win badly. It's insane to me that anyone would compare Mayfield and Manziel. Yeah, they both have had some off field college issues, but it was clear Manziel loved the spotlight more than he loved football and working hard. Mayfield clearly loves football and will do what it takes to win. He's a natural leader that seems to have that rare ability to elevate the guys around him and who guys rally around.
I would be incredibly disappointed if they ended up with Darnold or Allen though. I think both those guys are busts in the making.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I think he's more comparable with Russell Wilson. I'd be fine with drafting him. (Depending on the price.)
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Can’t argue that. Although BUF seems similar in regard from my untrained eyes. Good talent on defense...good running game. Anyway...I digress.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
The way I look at it, there are 2 possibilities here:
1) The Bills sit tight, and maybe get lucky and end up with Lamar Jackson at 21, then just start filling holes with another 1st, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, 2 fifths, 1 sixth and 1 7th round pick. Take a ton of swings and quickly make the team much younger.
2) The Bills trade up for a QB. Let's say they trade into the top 5. They could very well do that and STILL have a fairly regular draft this year. They could trade 2 firsts, a second, a third and a 5th and very possibly be enough to trade up into the top 5. That gives them a top 5 pick to take their QB and still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round pick.
Not quite the same infusion of youth, but an ability to get into the top 5 while still having a pick in every round and not give up future assets would be incredible.
And if they could flip Cordy Glenn in that, maybe that saves them a 2nd rounder.
1) The Bills sit tight, and maybe get lucky and end up with Lamar Jackson at 21, then just start filling holes with another 1st, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, 2 fifths, 1 sixth and 1 7th round pick. Take a ton of swings and quickly make the team much younger.
2) The Bills trade up for a QB. Let's say they trade into the top 5. They could very well do that and STILL have a fairly regular draft this year. They could trade 2 firsts, a second, a third and a 5th and very possibly be enough to trade up into the top 5. That gives them a top 5 pick to take their QB and still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round pick.
Not quite the same infusion of youth, but an ability to get into the top 5 while still having a pick in every round and not give up future assets would be incredible.
And if they could flip Cordy Glenn in that, maybe that saves them a 2nd rounder.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
The Duff Man
Footballguy
They fleeced Cle. I would have taken their 4th (assuming they have it)
Bills dealt a 3rd for Benjamin so they just have the two.
Bills dealt a 3rd for Benjamin so they just have the two.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I guess it depends on how you feel about this QB class. I feel like it is overrated. They are in a good position to add a lot of talent to a team that made the playoffs last year. Of course they need a QB at this point considering TT is gone. However I would not force the issue unless they were absolutely in love with someone. Foles, McCarron, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford....are all possible options without giving the farm. Not terribly exciting but this team made the playoffs last year with QB trouble. They are not going to the Super Bowl next year. Try to hit on a FA or later round QB and add talent. Next year sell the farm if they need to and the moves of this year paid off.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Josh NorrisVerified account @JoshNorris 8h8 hours ago
And the lock of the 2018 NFL Draft is the #Bills trading up for a QB. Just how high is the question.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
efactor
Footballguy
3.1 is huge for the Bills. Seems he could have been had cheaper. A lot to give up for a place holder QB.
Think they work a deal with SF for the #9 pick on draft day.
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I agree. I was kind of shocked CLE paid that. I thought that was great deal for the Bills. Interesting, reading the Browns thread, most CLE fans in there seemed to like it for Cleveland. Seemed like a waste of a semi premium pick to me.
I think this was a great deal for the Bills, they had clearly decided to move on so the first pick in the 3rd round is a huge get, but I think it makes some sense for the Browns as well. He's not a great QB, but he's certainly better than what they had last year, and this gives them a chance to still draft a rookie and let him sit for a year. Who knows, maybe their staff can coach him up better than the Bills?
I think they overpaid some, but they are a better team right now than without him, and they still have 5 picks before the one they traded away. I think it's a win/win.
I think they overpaid some, but they are a better team right now than without him, and they still have 5 picks before the one they traded away. I think it's a win/win.
daveR
Footballguy
IMO, it looks like they will want someone to step in from day-1. Probably Rosen, maybe Mayfield. That means pick 1 or 2.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Huge hole at QB, they've already stated they want to move up for a QB but their GM has stated every spot they move-up the price goes up EXPONENTIALLY.
https://buffalowdown.com/2018/03/09/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-traded-to-cleveland-browns/
They can afford to move up to 1 or 2 but I don't think the 2nd pick will be available and I don't think INDY would trade-down that far and blow their chance at Saquon or Bradley Chubb but Dorsey has already said the top pick is available and go give him a call.
Obviously he's opened a dialogue with Buffalo and has established a relationship and he's also shown he can make deals.
daveR
Footballguy
I think that assigning a QB to NYG lacks insight. Yes, Eli is getting older, but they have many holes to fill. Trading down to 21, 22 would allow them to address their OL problems (twice) while gaining additional draft equity.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
You guys are all jerks. Give me Candlestick Maker every day.
Borden
Footballguy
I was just thinking about this, Cleveland has said that they are open to trading the 1st. Do you think they would’ve taken 21, 22, 52, 55 and Tyrod (65 value) for the 1st?
I’m sure these Beane and Dorsey might have discussed something but there’s a lot of factors when the draft is still a ways away. A couple of FAs might change the outlook of the draft though. So those need to be sorted out first.
I’m sure these Beane and Dorsey might have discussed something but there’s a lot of factors when the draft is still a ways away. A couple of FAs might change the outlook of the draft though. So those need to be sorted out first.
Borden
Footballguy
2- Giants, 1/4 - Browns, 5 - Broncos, 6 - Jets,
11 - Phins(?), 12 - Bengals(?)
15 - Cards, 16 - Ravens(?), 17 - Chargers
Those seem to be the tiers of teams that you could make an argument for taking a QB in the draft, that are in front of the Bills currently. I’d say the Browns, Broncos, Jets and Cards are locks to take a QB. That means only 1 of those other 5 teams would need to take a QB to leave the Bills in QB-less. However, I think if the Chargers don’t have to move and have a QB fall to them they probably take that opportunity.
I think the minimum jump to make and still potentially have a shot at a QB is the Packers at 14. I think to get into the top 8 would be pretty expensive (for the Bills or any other team) since a QB run of even 3 would leave Barkley, Fitzpatrick, Nelson, Chubb, Ward. The Raiders at 10 are the lowest I think they would need to go to be “guaranteed” a top 5 QB. That would mean that even if someone jumped them and traded with TB at 9 then they’d still have one of the 5 left. If the Giants take a QB it pushes those other 5 big name non-QBs down. For Oakland to make that trade I’d think that 21, 22 and 65 would be enough. Those picks could probably get them a solid ILB (Evans or Esch) and a good OT (Miller or McGlinchey). The 65th pick is nice because they 6 6th round picks. So they have another pick that they can use to package with those late round picks to move around the draft.
11 - Phins(?), 12 - Bengals(?)
15 - Cards, 16 - Ravens(?), 17 - Chargers
Those seem to be the tiers of teams that you could make an argument for taking a QB in the draft, that are in front of the Bills currently. I’d say the Browns, Broncos, Jets and Cards are locks to take a QB. That means only 1 of those other 5 teams would need to take a QB to leave the Bills in QB-less. However, I think if the Chargers don’t have to move and have a QB fall to them they probably take that opportunity.
I think the minimum jump to make and still potentially have a shot at a QB is the Packers at 14. I think to get into the top 8 would be pretty expensive (for the Bills or any other team) since a QB run of even 3 would leave Barkley, Fitzpatrick, Nelson, Chubb, Ward. The Raiders at 10 are the lowest I think they would need to go to be “guaranteed” a top 5 QB. That would mean that even if someone jumped them and traded with TB at 9 then they’d still have one of the 5 left. If the Giants take a QB it pushes those other 5 big name non-QBs down. For Oakland to make that trade I’d think that 21, 22 and 65 would be enough. Those picks could probably get them a solid ILB (Evans or Esch) and a good OT (Miller or McGlinchey). The 65th pick is nice because they 6 6th round picks. So they have another pick that they can use to package with those late round picks to move around the draft.
daveR
Footballguy
In my amateur opinion, QBs will go 1-2-3, and maybe 4 or 5. I don't see INDY staying put and NYG will take one or trade out. I expect that CLE will take one at 1.1 if for no other reason than to protect the GM's reputation. I doubt DEN let's one go by. (Of all these scenarios, I am least convinced of IND.)
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
daveR
Footballguy
Yep. Takes a lot of factors coming together at the same time. You would need several QBs that are worthy and teams that want & need them. You would also need draft capital for teams wanting to go get them. Finally, you would need a willingness to move down by teams that do not want one.
Do you think the QBs are there?
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