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2021 Buffalo Bills - Same as it ever was*** (3 Viewers)

Whether or not Rex deserves it, letting Rex dangle is a bad look on the owners that will influence how others around the league perceive them. 

Not a position they want to be in if they want to attract elite front office people and coaches in the future. 

The thing about elite talent is that they often have options and can decide where to go. 

The owners should put out a statement that the decision to fire Rex had not been made (take that how you will) or they should fire him now. 

Letting the speculation fester for weeks is a bad look and will leave any potential hire wondering if the Pegulas will do the same to them when it is time to part ways. 

 
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need2know said:
But would aj want to go to the bills?  I doubt it
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What choice would he have?  NONE, he's under contract....besides why would he want to stay in Cincy, as the back-up?

9 hours ago, Tommy Collins said:

AJ has shown me nothing that would leave me to believe he is a starting QB in this league. And this crappy OL leads the league in rushing yards before contact. I know pass blocking is different. But Tyrod does hold the wall way too long and move around which generates some of those pressures. I can't count how many times he runs out of bounds behind the LOS for a sack as well.

So who would be a better option???  AJ put up points in 2014 when he was given the chance.  He has an arm, and he's cheap.

 
The Duff Man said:
Whether or not Rex deserves it, letting Rex dangle is a bad look on the owners that will influence how others around the league perceive them. 

Not a position they want to be in if they want to attract elite front office people and coaches in the future. 

The thing about elite talent is that they often have options and can decide where to go. 

The owners should put out a statement that the decision to fire Rex had not been made (take that how you will) or they should fire him now. 

Letting the speculation fester for weeks is a bad look and will leave any potential hire wondering if the Pegulas will do the same to them when it is time to part ways. 
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I don't see it as a bad move by the owners. How often at this point of a season (in all sports) do we hear "Our head coach has our backing. He's our guy." and he ends up getting fired a few weeks later? That happens all the time. By your logic, that should be even worse than not backing the coach.

This is a business. I think all owners realize that. There's no right or wrong way to handle these things...

 
So to play devil's advocate, can anyone guess just how low of a rank the Bills are for offensive TDs? Also, when was the last time that they averaged more points per game?

 
GroveDiesel said:
So to play devil's advocate, can anyone guess just how low of a rank the Bills are for offensive TDs? Also, when was the last time that they averaged more points per game?
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I looked this up the other day. They've actually scored 44 TDs this year, making them second or third in the NFL.

Which is astounding, because it sure doesn't feel like they scored that many.

 
flysack said:
I looked this up the other day. They've actually scored 44 TDs this year, making them second or third in the NFL.

Which is astounding, because it sure doesn't feel like they scored that many.
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Wow.  Very surprising. If Watkins had managed to stay healthy all year they would've been 1st.

 
flysack said:
I looked this up the other day. They've actually scored 44 TDs this year, making them second or third in the NFL.

Which is astounding, because it sure doesn't feel like they scored that many.
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Yup. 3rd in the NFL in offensive TDs and the last time they averaged this many points per game was 1989.

They've lost games where they have scored 31, 25, 25, 25, and 24 points.

I'm not sure exactly what to think about those numbers, but they're certainly surprising. I certainly think that it doesn't make the supposed defensive genius head coach look all that good. If the Bills had a top defense, is there any doubt with those numbers that they'd be a playoff team?

 
Exactly.

Despite Tyrod's accuracy problems and a crappy right side of the line, they've scored like crazy running the ball and with thew occasional mad bomber deep throw.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yup. 3rd in the NFL in offensive TDs and the last time they averaged this many points per game was 1989.

They've lost games where they have scored 31, 25, 25, 25, and 24 points.

I'm not sure exactly what to think about those numbers, but they're certainly surprising. I certainly think that it doesn't make the supposed defensive genius head coach look all that good. If the Bills had a top defense, is there any doubt with those numbers that they'd be a playoff team?
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Exactly. It's the run game that has saved this team from flaming out. Rex's defense that he promised would lead us to the playoffs and could be the best in NFL history has been a disappointment for 2 consecutive years. 

I don't think this excuses Tyrod. While we are scoring points, it's because of the run game. We are still 32nd in pass offense and when the defense is cheating to stop the run, Tyrod still can't take advantage of open throwing lanes and is holding onto the ball forever. He's taking way too many sacks as a result and missing wide open receivers.

If we had an average QB (I think Tyrod is below average), and the defense played up to their ability rather than being handicapped by Rex & Co. we are a playoff team.

 
The numbers are a bit misleading- part of the reason they've scored so much on offense is because their defense has put them in a hole. They've scored a lot of meaningless points late in games that they've still lost- against the Jets, Pats, Phins and Steelers. Still, overall the offense isn't the main issue. 

Another interesting stat- despite having a dominating running game, they are close to the bottom of the league in time of possession. They have the 2nd most rushing 1st downs, but the 2nd fewest passing. It's like every positive is offset by an at least equally negative, which is how you end up with mediocrity.

I agree that with competent coaching and better QB play this is easily a playoff team, but that's basically saying "if they were a better team they'd be better". Going to be yet another interesting off season...

 
humpback said:
The numbers are a bit misleading- part of the reason they've scored so much on offense is because their defense has put them in a hole. They've scored a lot of meaningless points late in games that they've still lost- against the Jets, Pats, Phins and Steelers. Still, overall the offense isn't the main issue. 

Another interesting stat- despite having a dominating running game, they are close to the bottom of the league in time of possession. They have the 2nd most rushing 1st downs, but the 2nd fewest passing. It's like every positive is offset by an at least equally negative, which is how you end up with mediocrity.

I agree that with competent coaching and better QB play this is easily a playoff team, but that's basically saying "if they were a better team they'd be better". Going to be yet another interesting off season...
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My issue is that even with a top rushing attack, we are still 32nd in passing. The defense knows we're going to run and they still can't stop it. So you would expect more of 8 in the box to stop McCoy and the rushing attack. Despite this, when Tyrod does throw, he's holding onto it too long and not seeing wide open guys. He isn't the answer. I'm expecting them to exercise the $27m guaranteed money at the end of this season because who else is there? They going to get Matt Barkley or trade for someone like Jimmy G? I don't think so.

I've been a big Whaley fan because of how different this team looks now compared to previous rosters. We were just awful for so long and now we have a roster with talented players. But the Tim Graham article about how Buffalo has the fewest drafted players on their roster is concerning. You can't build a playoff team through free agency because you're going to have a ton of cap issues (which we now have). I'm wavering on my support for him.

I don't think Rex is the answer because he inherited a top 5 defense and that has been one of the biggest reasons why we aren't winning more games. But I would be open to the idea of having him return for a 3rd season, but I would need to know what his plan is. How is he going to fix this defense?

We're going to get Ragland back, and Shaq will be healthy for a full season. So we will have Dareus, Kyle, Hughes, Shaq, Ragland, Darby. What are we doing with Zach & Preston? Zach is a pending FA and had a hot start but has had some bad games mixed in. What are we doing with Gilmore? Are we paying him or letting him walk? If we let him walk, who are we replacing him with? What are we going to do with our safeties? Graham isn't young and hasn't really done a ton this season and Aaron's career is hopefully over (I say hopefully because I don't want him to be seriously injured on the field). 

If we keep Gilmore, who is the defense going to be better? Are we changing some defenses we run? Are we needing different personnel? If so, what do we need and how are we going to get it? If we don't keep Gilmore, we not only need to make up for that loss but need to improve on the talent we had this year. 

I just don't see how the defense is going to be better. This team is built for a couple more years before salary and age start to really force us into a rebuilding/retooling mode, at which point the previous mention of having a roster built on free agency comes to hurt us because we don't have prospects we're developing/keeping.

 
Rex has to go. He's had 2 years to get his guys and implement his system, and the results have been poor. Obviously not everything is bad, but overall, they are no better than before he was hired (probably worse) despite having more talent. He took a really, really good defense and turned them into a mediocre one- for that alone he deserves to be fired. I don't see the point in finding out what his plan is since his plan when he came here was to have the best defense ever and win the Super Bowl, and we know how that turned out. He's nothing but hot air, it's time to move on.

I've said it before, but I have no idea how to feel about Whaley because I have no idea how much say he had in which decisions, some of which were good and others bad. Probably my #1 issue with the team is that it seems very disorganized without any clear delineation of power. It seems like Whaley has a pretty good eye for talent, but not sure about the other very important aspects of the GM job. He's probably in over his head a bit and better suited for his old role. Easier said than done, but they need to find someone who they have faith to steer the ship for the next several years and give them full control. If they can do that relatively soon, then that person can make the call on Whaley.

Agreed on Tyrod- he isn't very good, and hopefully people will finally admit that his contract extension was a mistake (again, not sure who was responsible for it), but not sure what they're going to do now since they've backed themselves into an expensive corner. Going back to my earlier point, I'd worry about filling out the front office first and let them make that call, that's why you pay them the big bucks.

It all starts at the top IMO. I know everyone was happy when the Pegula's bought the team and kept them in Buffalo, but now they need to prove that they can properly run an organization. If not, the next decade and a half won't be any better than the last.

 
Tom Coughlin?

Meh...I get that he's beat the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl. That might be enough to get people excited. I'm not so sure. The guy is over 70 and seemed to lose touch with the trends of the NFL.

I'd really like to give both Rex and Tyrod one more year. I think we all know neither of those are likely to happen though.

 
The way the front office has handled the last couple weeks doesn't instill in me a great deal of confidence that they know what they're doing or have a coherent plan on how to move forward on a better path.  

 
GroveDiesel said:
Yup. 3rd in the NFL in offensive TDs and the last time they averaged this many points per game was 1989.

They've lost games where they have scored 31, 25, 25, 25, and 24 points.

I'm not sure exactly what to think about those numbers, but they're certainly surprising. I certainly think that it doesn't make the supposed defensive genius head coach look all that good. If the Bills had a top defense, is there any doubt with those numbers that they'd be a playoff team?
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I said somewhere earlier in this thread when Rex was first hired-under a different name-that I thought it was a terrible hire. They had an established top defense under Schwarz and the personnel to support it and it made little sense to change it. I thought Rex's hiring was wholly a "celebrity hire". Buffalo fans were ecstatic that the team was staying in Buffalo and the Pegulas went for the splash hire to keep the fanbase energized.

I get that it may have been close to impossible to retain Schwarz without elevating him to HC-but that would have been preferable IMO. I'm not a Bills fan per se but I live right outside Buffalo, work in Buffalo, and consume all the local media about the Bills. I actually like it when the Bills are relevant because it elevates the mood around here. To me Rex has been more than a wasted 2 years, he has set the Bills back another 2 years beyond that IMO. His hiring was almost "Brownsian".

 
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At least the loss might get Rex out of town. 

I really don't know what to think about Taylor. 

First it was back to back wildcats in a crucial spot, now it is Reggie Bush. I don't know why the Bills want to outthink people when they have McCoy. 

 
The Duff Man said:
At least the loss might get Rex out of town. 

I really don't know what to think about Taylor. 

First it was back to back wildcats in a crucial spot, now it is Reggie Bush. I don't know why the Bills want to outthink people when they have McCoy. 
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Change doesn't necessarily equal improvement.  There's a a pretty good chance that a new coach and/or a new GM sets this team back for a few more years.  Be careful what you wish for...

...and I say that as someone that was never in love with the Rex hire to begin with.

 
Observations from the game. Watkins is fine. He was open the whole game with no issues. Taylor had a mixed game. He didn't even see Watkins open half the time. Don't know what to make of that. Was Watkins his 2nd read on those plays? Either way he made poor decisions throughout the game, in my opinion. Based on what I saw today Watkins should be a high draft pick in 2017 because he's finally healthy.

 
The combination of punting on 4th and 3 in a must win situation and then the defense giving up a HUGE run to Ajayai with only 10 guys on the field because Rex didn't know Gilmore was still in concussion protocol sums up the Rex Ryan tenure and should be his end. Unreal.

 
GroveDiesel said:
The combination of punting on 4th and 3 in a must win situation and then the defense giving up a HUGE run to Ajayai with only 10 guys on the field because Rex didn't know Gilmore was still in concussion protocol sums up the Rex Ryan tenure and should be his end. Unreal.
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Doesn't Rex still have 4 years on his deal? I think he gets another year

 
The Duff Man said:
At least the loss might get Rex out of town. 

I really don't know what to think about Taylor. 

First it was back to back wildcats in a crucial spot, now it is Reggie Bush. I don't know why the Bills want to outthink people when they have McCoy. 
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More that anything, this is what kills me about the NFL.  Some teams like Pitt and new England (e.g., the teams that are successful), know how to use their weapons and do so relentlessly.  Other coaches in the league try to get cute and out think other teams and the whole "they're  thinking that I'm thinking this so I'll think this because then they will think I'm thinking they will think I'm thinking what they're thinking" just looks dumb more times than not (let's use reggae bush instead of all-world shady).  

 
He's going to eat a lot of money if he cuts him. That's relevant to a guy like Pegula. Maybe not enough to keep him but still it is a factor I think.

Also, who would be Rex's replacement?

 
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Gandalf said:
He's going to eat a lot of money if he cuts him. That's relevant to a guy like Pegula. Maybe not enough to keep him but still it is a factor I think.

Also, who would be Rex's replacement?
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This is where the Rex mistake may come into play: Pegula will be less gung ho about hiring a big name coach to a huge contract.

More likely he explores the talented coordinator pool.

I would love for the Bills to hire the Pats D-coordinator, Matt Patricia. He'd make a good HC. I pray to the football gods they don't hire Josh McDaniels. He's just such a colossal d-bag whose rep is solely based on getting the most out of Tom Brady. I mean, come on.

 
flysack said:
This is where the Rex mistake may come into play: Pegula will be less gung ho about hiring a big name coach to a huge contract.

More likely he explores the talented coordinator pool.

I would love for the Bills to hire the Pats D-coordinator, Matt Patricia. He'd make a good HC. I pray to the football gods they don't hire Josh McDaniels. He's just such a colossal d-bag whose rep is solely based on getting the most out of Tom Brady. I mean, come on.
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What has Patricia shown, leadership-wise, that would suggest he's a capable HC? Being a HC is a lot more than just being a good coordinator. Otherwise finding a good HC wouldn't be so hard. People get fascinated with coaches who had a good O or D. 

 
Tommy Collins said:
What has Patricia shown, leadership-wise, that would suggest he's a capable HC? Being a HC is a lot more than just being a good coordinator. Otherwise finding a good HC wouldn't be so hard. People get fascinated with coaches who had a good O or D. 
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Agreed. One of the #1 things I think is important for a good HC is flexibility. Someone who will hire good coaches that aren't locked into a particular system. What makes BB such an amazing coach is that he constantly changes things up to fit the personnel that they have, rather than try to force a scheme on players that the scheme doesn't fit. And he doesn't force a scheme against an offense/defense that it doesn't matchup well against. 

I don't want a coach to come in and "fix" the defense or "fix" the offense. I want a head coach to come in and use all the talent they have to just freaking win games.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Agreed. One of the #1 things I think is important for a good HC is flexibility. Someone who will hire good coaches that aren't locked into a particular system. What makes BB such an amazing coach is that he constantly changes things up to fit the personnel that they have, rather than try to force a scheme on players that the scheme doesn't fit. And he doesn't force a scheme against an offense/defense that it doesn't matchup well against. 

I don't want a coach to come in and "fix" the defense or "fix" the offense. I want a head coach to come in and use all the talent they have to just freaking win games.
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I wish it was possible to give this more than one like.  Being a good coordinator is necessary but not sufficient to being a good HC.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Agreed. One of the #1 things I think is important for a good HC is flexibility. Someone who will hire good coaches that aren't locked into a particular system. What makes BB such an amazing coach is that he constantly changes things up to fit the personnel that they have, rather than try to force a scheme on players that the scheme doesn't fit. And he doesn't force a scheme against an offense/defense that it doesn't matchup well against. 

I don't want a coach to come in and "fix" the defense or "fix" the offense. I want a head coach to come in and use all the talent they have to just freaking win games.
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He's worked with both sides of the ball (started with the offense, then switched to defense). He's made good defenses with average overall talent. His players love him; they play hard for him. And he grew up under B, so I'm sure he values flexibility.

ETA: he's also supposed to be smart as hell too.

ETA: his demeanor is more like B than Rex. He eschews the media spotlight and any grand BS statements. The guy would rather be in a small room dreaming Xs and Os.

 
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flysack said:
He's worked with both sides of the ball (started with the offense, then switched to defense). He's made good defenses with average overall talent. His players love him; they play hard for him. And he grew up under B, so I'm sure he values flexibility.

ETA: he's also supposed to be smart as hell too.

ETA: his demeanor is more like B than Rex. He eschews the media spotlight and any grand BS statements. The guy would rather be in a small room dreaming Xs and Os.
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I'm fine with that. I honestly don't know anything about him. I was more commenting in general about what I think is important for a HC. 

I do think it would be very difficult to convince a coach under BB to go coach for another team in the division. The combination of respect for him and being afraid of facing him twice a year would be a strong detriment.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Agreed. One of the #1 things I think is important for a good HC is flexibility. Someone who will hire good coaches that aren't locked into a particular system. What makes BB such an amazing coach is that he constantly changes things up to fit the personnel that they have, rather than try to force a scheme on players that the scheme doesn't fit. And he doesn't force a scheme against an offense/defense that it doesn't matchup well against. 

I don't want a coach to come in and "fix" the defense or "fix" the offense. I want a head coach to come in and use all the talent they have to just freaking win games.
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I heard an interesting story earlier this year about Urban Meyer and how he hires coaches.  He has plenty of friends who are coaches and he'll bounce ideas off of them, but he will not hire his friends to be assistants. 

Meyer had heard through the grapevine from some of his coach contacts about some guy, Tom Herman, who was coaching somewhere - I can't remember which school - Texas State, Sam Houston State, Rice, something like that - and seemed like a decent talent.  Meyer went to a handful of their practices/games over the years, essentially scouting Tom Herman....his playcalling, his demeanor, character, behavior with the players.  He liked what he saw, talked to him briefly, got his contact info, and a few years later hired him out of the blue to be the OC at Ohio State.  Now he's the hottest coaching prospect in CFB.  I might have the story partially twisted but that's the gist of it.

They weren't old coaching buddies, or friends....it was a coach (1) recognizing that hiring your friends clouds your judgement and (2) identifying coaching talent free of biases.  Can you imagine Rex ever doing that?  It's that kind of innovative thinking that helps keep Ohio State in the top 5 every year.  And by hiring old friends and buddies and NFL retreads, the Bills have missed the playoffs for the 17th straight year.

 
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Steve Tasker said:
I heard an interesting story earlier this year about Urban Meyer and how he hires coaches.  He has plenty of friends who are coaches and he'll bounce ideas off of them, but he will not hire his friends to be assistants. 

Meyer had heard through the grapevine from some of his coach contacts about some guy, Tom Herman, who was coaching somewhere - I can't remember which school - Texas State, Sam Houston State, Rice, something like that - and seemed like a decent talent.  Meyer went to a handful of their practices/games over the years, essentially scouting Tom Herman....his playcalling, his demeanor, character, behavior with the players.  He liked what he saw, talked to him briefly, got his contact info, and a few years later hired him out of the blue to be the OC at Ohio State.  Now he's the hottest coaching prospect in CFB.  I might have the story partially twisted but that's the gist of it.

They weren't old coaching buddies, or friends....it was a coach (1) recognizing that hiring your friends clouds your judgement and (2) identifying coaching talent free of biases.  Can you imagine Rex ever doing that?  It's that kind of innovative thinking that helps keep Ohio State in the top 5 every year.  And by hiring old friends and buddies and NFL retreads, the Bills have missed the playoffs for the 17th straight year.
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You mean that hiring your brother despite his previous defense being one of the worst in league history isn't good coaching?

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I wish it was possible to give this more than one like.  Being a good coordinator is necessary but not sufficient to being a good HC.
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Not to rub salt as a dolphin fan, but that may be what I like the most about Gase.  He is the first coach we have had since Shula that is more about personnel than philosophy.  Rex has not hurt you guys in terms of talent, but a better tactician is likely what you guys need.  (Hope you don't find him!)

 
Over his 31 games as Bills coach, Ryan has fielded a defense that ranks 23rd in yards allowed per game, 15th in points allowed, 21st in yards allowed per play, 30th in yards allowed per rush, 15th in net yards per pass attempt, 29th in sacks per pass attempt, 20th in third-down conversion rate and 24th in red-zone conversion rate. 
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These numbers are awful enough without the context that the unit was one of the best in the NFL when he took them over. You really can't overstate just how poorly he's done.

 
Bucky Gleason coming out strong saying the Bills really like Anthony Lynn and want him to stay on as head coach next year.  I don't hate that move, on first blush, though if he's of the same "run the ball all the time" philosophy as Rex, I'm not sure much will be different.

 
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The sad thing is that if the Bills had won either of the Miami games or the Seattle game, the Bills probably would have given Rex a contract extension.

 
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